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Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
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Well done Andrew.
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Good morning Guys,
Off thread topic, but some may find it interesting. Those that know me personally on here, and regular readers are aware i work in the aerospace/defence industry, so i was particularly interested in a new documentary on Netflix, namely Downfall and watched it last night. It's basically journalistic scrutiny into US aircraft manufacturer Boeing and in particular related to crashes by it's new (at the time) 737-MAX in 2018 and 2019 that killed all occupants on board. The company denied technical responsibilty (and continue to do) even though they were fined $2.5 billion by the US justice department for fraud and conspiracy. The bottom line is after the merger with arch-rival McDonald Douglas 25 years ago the mangement infrastructure changed, as did manufacturing philosophy of the company. Mass redundancies were common and the company was more or less run by accountants who chose to ignore advice from engineers. It was driven by profit margins and share price, ignoring basic aerospace engineering principles of safety. The latter was compromised and Boeing actually blamed pilots of the 2 stricken aircraft even though it was an open 'secret' in the aerospace world that one of the flight control systems was faulted and actually dangerous in that it only had a single point of failure (i.e no contingency if it failed). The 737-MAX was grounded worldwide for 2 years (belatedly by USA) but is flying today (albeit not by Chinese airlines) and some of you may have flown on it without knowledge of its history. Aerospace engineers will not be surprised at content of the documentary, but the general public could be. It's worth a watch and may even provoke you to check which aircraft you are flying on next time you travel. Have a nice Monday all. https://www.netflix.com/title/81272421 Glasgow Calling Thank you. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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well done ais
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AIS
It is not just the 737 Max and the MCAS system ,any aircraft where the outside sensors give faulty info to say the autopilot,can make the aircraft behave in an erratic manner,and throw a pilot off his equilibrium eg.Air France 2009. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tanglefoot,
The AF flight Atlantic Ocean crash in 2009 was not the same issue and pilot error was partly instrumental in bringing the aircraft down anyway. This was not the case with the Boeing 737-MAX in 2018 and 2019. After the merger with MD, cost cutting was paramount, safety was compromised for profit and a rising share price. Design philosophy of the aircraft flight control system went against the first rule of aerospace engineering, there must be more than a single fail safe system in place to prevent a catastrophic failure and subsequent loss of life. The design was faulted from day 1, engineers knew (and pointed it out) management knew, the CEO and the board knew, but it was in competition with the new Airbus and design changes can take months of FT qualification for certification. I know design engineers in Seattle that are still working on modifications for the aircraft today ! What the Netflix documentary doesn't mention is the many incidents that have been reported by airlines that are not MCAS related, but this is hardly surprising. If one system was compromised, others certainly will be (and are). I have never flown on the aircraft and i advised my daughter the same directly after the 2nd crash. I work with engineers that share my views. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Foyleswar
Thank you. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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and throw a pilot off his equilibrium
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Long gone are the halcyon days of "If it's not Boeing,I'm not going"...
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Punchestown
Exactly ! They were pioneers of aerospace in bygone years, but the MD merger was their downfall, hence title of the Netflix documentary. I've never worked for Boeing (i have for Airbus) but what i hear from friends and colleagues who did, and some still do, i don't think i would have enjoyed it. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Hi Andrew,
Watched the documentary, shocking especially for the families involved. CEO fired but still walks away with $62m in benefits. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59420570 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Good afternoon Guys,
A very busy Bee for a couple of days, hence no posting (except for the daily nap comp). I have a possible lay in mind for this evening, but in the meantime there is a runner i thought was worth backing with a small stake, the Neil Mulholland trained Chirico Vallis (Doncaster 3.25). Finished 3rd in the 29f Grade 3 Agetur Classic at Warwick LTO after a 3 month lay-off (faded) so should trip fitter this afternoon. Prior to this won at Chepstow (almost same trip as this afternoon) beating a useful yardstick in Kitty’s Light off a 5lb lower mark than his current 135. This veterans race looks easier to win than at Warwick and i think it probably only concerns the front 3 in the betting, although i was surprised how short the Venetia Williams runner, Belami Des Pictons is (currently trading around 13/8). Receives 13lb from Dingo Dollar, but in my opinion this one needs further and a little better ground to show his best. Odds of 3/1 are a little more than i expected. Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all. Lucky Thanks for the post. The CEO’s severance package was abhorrent and an insult to families of the 346 victims. In my opinion, many on the board of directors should face criminal charges, but we all know this will not occur. Tanglefoot Please note my laughing emoji (21 Feb 22 15:15) was not directed at you as an insult, simply the wording used. It was actually quite funny, although you may not have intended this. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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AIS,just as well,I was ready to get a dig in at u,when one of your guesses went pear shaped
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Spatial disorientation would have been a better phrase,I must say
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AIS,just as well,I was ready to get a dig in at u, when one of your guesses went pear shaped
You may get chance around 3.30 The latter description is much better | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I'm on, G'luck
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ttt
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Good morning Guys,
A decent card at Kempton with 4 graded races, but elsewhere in GB more or less average meetings (there is a group 3 at Lingfield to be fair). Newcastle stages the Eider chase and will not be affected by adverse weather conditions as it has been on 21 occasions since its inception. The race probably doesn't attain the media/public interest it did in bygone years, but punters still look for Grand National clues although winners of both races are few and far between, Comply Or Die being the last one in 2008. At Fairyhouse a couple of low key grade 3 races feature in an otherwise ordinary card, but in terms of financial reward Riyadh takes top spot, not only today, but almost certainly this year. I doubt there is a one day meeting worldwide in 2022 offering the total amount of prize money on the card, the Saudi Cup being worth an incredible £7.4 million to the winner. 14 runners and even the rag that finishes 10th receives £148,000. David Egan won the race on Mishriff in 2021 and is favourite to repeat the feat this afternoon so at 7%, a nice little earner using the words of Arthur Daley. Mishriff won after a 126 day break last year, his previous run being in the Ascot Champion stakes and this year is no different (well 1 day). He has a poor draw in 14, although he won from 12 before, but this years field is much stronger. Can he win ? Of course, but i have my doubts and i wouldn't be interested at 5/2 anyway. Frankie will be a popular choice to win on Real World, but backers should be aware his mount Real World has nver won on dirt in 4 attempts. I think it's a race to watch without a bet. Closer to home i like one at Kempton Impulsive One in the grade 2 Adonis Hurdle (1.50). The short priced favourite Knight Salute has beaten him twice, but there shouldn't be much between them this afternoon looking at the form. In October 2021 KS was receiving 7 lb (won by 2L) over CD and in December was giving away 5lb winning by a length. Impulsive One has won a listed race since and although he needs to find a few lbs may be improving. The flat track will suit and at win odds of 7.2 i feel he's an EW bet. Not many look banker material, but one who could win at odds against is CD winner Cenotice (Newcastle 2.10) although he's certainly not a given by any means. Odds of 3.0 look a little enticing at least. I have a short list of 3 that i feel can be layed this afternoon, Pic D'Orhy (Kempton 2.25) Ballybreeze (Chepstow 1.08) and Al Dancer (Chepstow 2.53). I may put one of these up as a PL lay selection later (< 5/2 odds permitting). Escapee Chirico Vallis ran well enough to finish a close 3rd (just over a length) and 3 were in with a shout at the final fence, but he was simply not good enough on the day. Conceding almost a stone to the winner and the admirable Vintage Clouds ran a stormer in 2nd. It will not be consolation to know i was also on and it was my nap. That's racing.  Ashleigh Five Star Getaway runs in the Kempton 3.37 The Dragon Many thanks for the ttt. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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morning andrew, yes i will be backing Five Star Getaway again today,think kempton and better ground will help.
oh no, chapman just tipped him on the opening show. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Lay Post
Chepstow 2.53 - Al Dancer A 9 year old French bred, Al Namix gelding trained by Sam Thomas in South Glamorgan. Transferred from Nigel Twiston-Davies in October 2021 (3 runs since for Sam). Well known to NH racing fans, a half-decent hurdler in 2018/2019 (record 4/7) and winner of the Betfair Hurdle off a mark of 141 (unplaced in the Supreme). Ran off 151 in 6 consecutive novice/intermediate chases winning a couple, but his last win was in October 2020 (same mark). Never really replicated his earlier/best form, has regressed in the ratings and although he ran well enough to be runner-up in a class 2 hurdle at Sandown in December, was last of 5 finishers in a similar race LTO (beaten 43L) albeit conceding weight to the field. Reverts to fences this afternoon and surprising drops in trip to 16f after 7 runs over longer trips (20f-24f). The last time he ran over the trip was in March 2020. Has won on soft, but not on heavy and Chepstow can get very testing. Conceding weight to 3 in the field that is actually quite a tricky handicap where all 5 can win. A 18 lb difference in the field on BHA ratings, but only 6 lb on RPR. Wears first time cheek pieces. Stable is in form (last 3 runners won) but i thought it was an odd entry and can't see him winning this afternoon, hence the lay selection. Lay @ 3.10 Good luck all. 26-Feb-22 11:33:55 14:53 Chepstow Al Dancer - 2m Hcap Chs Betfair Bet ID 1:259855246185 | Matched: 26-Feb-22 11:33:55 Lay 3.10 50.00 -- 105.00 50.00 Matched | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Ashleigh
I put it up in the NH big race competition but i haven't backed it yet. Good luck | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Here's the al dancer LAY
Its out to 3.65 currently, not sure at what level the odds are no longer a value lay?
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And here the Five Star Getaway BACK
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Thank you ANDREW
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Well done Andrew,he was well beaten.
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Good sunny, albeit chilly morning Guys,
A mixed day yesterday, but at least my lay post selection Al Dancer (5/2) was beaten. Always up with the pace, but struggling from some way out with the heavy going possibly playing a part. To be fair he did stay on in the closing stages (without ever looking the winnner) although this was expected winning over further in the past. I thought it was an odd entry as mentioned in the lay reasoning, but maybe Sam wanted to try a significant drop in trip and first time cheekpieces to see if they made an improvement. I don't feel they did and expect him to revert to a longer distance next time out. My 2 back selections were poor, i certainly thought the well backed Impulsive One (EW @ 7.2) would at least give the favourite Knight Status a race considering close proximity of the pair in a couple of recent races. It may not have been his true running, but the best horse won on the day, although it would have been close if the runner-up hadn't tried to uproot the final flight. Knight Status ran well, it has to be said, and is probably the best GB challenger in the Triumph Hurdle field, but i doubt we saw the winner yesterday and i continue to have confidence in my ante-post selection of last year, Vauban. As for Cenotice at Newcastle, drifted and the less said about it's run, the better. 2022 Lay P/L Status
Note the W/L refers to the bet, not the horse. A small profit (pre-2% commission) but only 5 selections to date this year and a losing bet means playing catch up of course. What could have been +£250 is reduced somewhat, but never mind it's early days. Maybe more later. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. Escapee Its out to 3.65 currently, not sure at what level the odds are no longer a value lay? Yes, the drift was annoying (although you posted 50 minutes after me) and takes gloss off the selection. Unfortunately it started more or less as i posted and it doesn't take a lot of liquidity to move a price mid-morning. When i lay the selection i have to type out the reasoning (i've already done the study by then) and this takes time, but usually i'm not far away. There have been occasions (the penultimmate one for example) when i've actually posted a higher lay price than my matched bet. Sometimes they dirft, sometimes they steam, but it's out of my control of course. Your query what level odds are a value lay is valid and interesting, but i think you would get various responses if you put your question to the forum. In my case, i feel that if a lay selection is a few spots higher, it's still a lay, but not so at a full point. My maximum odds limit on the thread lay posts is 5/2 (3.75) so if it was 11/4 (3.95) on here for example i would still consider it layable. Note the odds in brackets are not the equivalent in decimal, simply envisaged odds for industry prices. Every horse running has a price that is 'right' whether it's a back or lay, but the figure is simply based on opinion of the backer/layer. As an example, there are occasions where a horse you thought was a lay at 5/4 drifts to 5/2, would you still lay it. There is more than one way of looking at it. Lampus/Second Again Thank you. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Afternoon Guys,
Looking at trainer entries for Fontwell and Naas, it could be a Gary Moore/Willie Mullins benefit day with each having several shorties at head of the betting. Of course it's not a given they will all win and i doubt it anyway. I was surprised to see how short (2.34) Blackbow is on here (Naas 2.00) i expected the betting to be closer between all 3 runners and not only because stable jockey Paul Townend rides the outsider of Willie's 2 entries. I think Captain Guinness should be the rightful favourite even though conditions of the race slightly favour Blackbow. In his Sportling Life write up, WPM appeared to intimate the latter had the better chance, but what do i know. Probably a race to watch without betting unless you had a strong opinion, but i may regret it later. One i have backed already is Flame Thrower (Naas 3.00) who is a lightly raced, improving hurdler. A few jumping errors and a bump at the last flight may have cost him in his penultimate race over CD, but he made amends in no uncertain terms winning easily at Fairyhouse LTO. I think he is a bet at odds around 2.64. I was actually contemplating posting the WPM trained Ha Dor as a lay (matched at 2.92 last night, albeit not by me) but he's drifted way beyond my max 5/2 odds for the thread. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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Thank you ANDREW
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WD Andrew
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Good morning Guys,
I mentioned yesterday it looked like a Gary Moore/Willie Mullins benefit day with several shorties although i didn't expect them all to win. The Sussex based trainer was certainly in form with 4 winners and whilst 2 of them looked good on paper, i doubt many were on the 20/1 winner Botox Has. Over in Ireland, Willie's 5 runners (4 morning favourites) only produced a single winner, albeit a potentially decent one for the Donnellys production line of stars in Bring On The Night who may be heading for the Supreme. Captain Guinness duly beat Blackbow as i thought he might and yes i did regret it afterwards as i didn't have a bet in the race (ref my post). We've all done it, had a fancy and left it, but it can feel the same as a loser. At least the one i did put up, Flame Thrower (heavily backed late on) won. Still a bit sketchy over the hurdles at times and it didn't look a particularly strong grade 2, but he can win again (will skip Cheltenham). Today's cards are much of a muchness and the handicaps at Carlisle don't look easy. Neil Mullholland appears to have a couple of chances at Plumpton and i think the safer option of them is Mallinas Island (3.00). Obviously trained with future handicaps in mind last season, progressing and winner of 2 from 4 since. Won easier than the form line suggests LTO conceding 21lb and this afternoons field doesn't appear to be any stronger. Raised 6lb, but he could a well handicapped horse. At odds around 2.6 he's probably the only bet i will be having today. Weights for the Grand Annual announced tomorrow and i'm obviously interested in Elixir De Nutz (now rated 143) with respect to my ante-post EW bet. Speaking of Cheltenham, a couple of posters i've been racing with recently are attending, but it's doubtful i will be even though i'll be over the preceding weekend and up to the Wednesday evening. Travelling, hotel and course costs add to an already costly several days and in the event i do end up in front, any profit is obviously taken care of. Lampus/PHS Thank you | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think Numitor 3.40 Don can be layed at 2.74 a combination of his handicap mark add the distance on this ground are the reasons.
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2nd again...it could not have won any easier! At least at 5/4 it is not too much damage.
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Yes,the home straight was painful.If you post a lay on here they can sprout wings plus I laid it at 7/4.
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Good morning Guys from a chilly (-4c) München.
The penultimate weekend before Cheltenham and as a consequence quality fields are limited albeit reasonable cards nevertheless (if a little tricky) with graded cards at 3 venues, 4 if Meydan is included. The feature at Newbury is the G3 Greatwood Gold Cup, a race Paul Nicholls won on no less than 9 of the 17 runnings since it's inception in 2004 and has a couple of entries this afternoon. I doubt any poster could name all his previous winners (without Google) but many will remember Big Fella Thanks (part owned by Harry Findley) who won in 2010 and was placed in 2011/2012. I can't see Paul bettering his record in the race today, but i would be hard pressed to offer even a clue who will win. If a gun was put to my head i would plump for the Venetia Williams trained Farinet although any of the 10 runner field could win. Two time Champion hurdle winner Buveur d'Air (oddly translated as air drinker) returns to racing after an almost 11 month break, but i will be surprised if he wins even though he's in a handicap for the first time. Unfortunately many agree and he's drifted to a price that is simply too risky to lay. The Shunter won this race last year and went on to win at the festival, but several other winners have also done the same/been placed so maybe a pointer to look at. Although some of the cards are interesting, i didn't see a stand out, back or lay earlier at sensible odds. Potential lays (5/2 or under) on a short list include Away Wit Da Fairys (Lingfield 12.49) Belle Metal (Navan 2.13) and Lord Baddlesly (Newbury 3.02). I may post one of these later (unless i see an alternative) but i'm not overly confident by any of them to be honest. If there is a shortie worth playing then Al Suhail (Meydan 2.55) is one i will be backing. Improved since being gelded and won a G2 at Newmarket in October. Almost won the G1 Jebel Hatta (3rd beaten 0.5L) on season debut at this meeting in 2021. Has been a little quirky in the past, but there were no signs of this LTO and assuming he doesn't get into an early 'cut throat' battle with Storm Damage for the lead i can see him winning. Conditions of the race are in his favour and he may go on to better things. At better odds Espoir De Romay (Kelso 2.40) should repay backers faith in his fitness, form figures after a break are 1-1-1-1-2. Improved since going chasing winning 2/5 and going up 18lb in BHSA ratings. May have won the Aintree Mildmay Chase but for falling 2 fences out. At odds around 2.62 (time of posting) i think he's worth a bet. Trainer/Jockey only entry/ride and make the long trip from Gloucestshire. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. Alan Love Dreams had an off day on Thursday although he was due one considering his consistency since you bought him in 2020. At the bend i thought he was travelling well enough, but couldn't go with the pack once headed. What was your take on the run. Second Again Unlucky with your lay selection Numitor, it was risky, but most are at the odds. It could have been worse looking at inflated odds quoted on another thread. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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form figures after a break are 1-1-1-1-3.
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Thank you ANDREW
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Inflation is going to hit us all
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Two observations AIS,like Al Suhail and Buveur d’Air cannot be totally ruled out as Henderson has a good strike rate at course,Gl
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