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Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
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Afternoon Alan/Glasgow,
Thanks for the posts. I didn't think there was a lot of depth to the opener at Sandown tomorrow and if i wasn't going to be at the track i probably wouldn't have a bet on Balkeo. I don't bet on every race at a meeting i attend anyway, but it's always nice to start off with a winner. Nico has a good record on hurdlers at Sandown and i don't think the horse has to be that decent to win. It's the trainer/jockey best chance of a winner on the day albeit from very few runners. Good luck. | ||||||||
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Thanks for the reply Alan, my schoolboy error as the R/P only showed 4 horses on its result page, it seems strange being
pulled out Today but that could be due to anything, the 3 Cheltenham entries caught my eye but as you say best take a watching brief. Thanks Glasgow. | ||||||||
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Taken out today because the dreaded words 'good to firm in places' appeared in the going report.
Mr Waley-Cohen has another 4-y-old hurdler with Mulholland that also won it's only start in France, called Invictus Smart. He paid £200,000 for that one at a public sale in December, and it's also got Cheltenham entries. I was asked to assess Invictus Smart for another possible buyer and I reckon he's paid at least five times what it's worth. So that's another one to watch out for! | ||||||||
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" Good to Firm " never crossed my mind. !!
Afternoon Andrew.  | ||||||||
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AIS - Hendo had 3 entered for the race and has a 40% strike rate. I wouldn't bee too interested if odds on though. Would want 2/1 at least. G Moore has had 7 tries ta winning he race and only managed 1 place!
GL | ||||||||
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Good call Andrew...battled well
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Well the betting told the story about the Hendo runner, wasn't wanted and drifted like a barge, Nico even managed to come 3rd. Well done with Vauban.
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Best price 11/4 for March,you can trade anyway you like now Andrew well done.
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Andrew & happy, can you both sign in for the new team comp on your comps Lucky Pins
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As stated by undecided, any one else fancies joining just shout out.
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Good evening Guys,
Thank you for the posts. Back home (Easy Jet Red eye flight before breakfast) after a nice weekend in UK including Saturday afternoon at Sandown. Met up with Mr Spreadsheet as planned, but we missed our intended train from Waterloo to Esher. Discussed an alternative route with rail staff and was later joined by another racegoer in the same situation, so we made our way to Surbiton and split a taxi fare from there 3 ways. Our lateness turned out to be a positive for me as we watched the first race en-route via LV (without betting) so i swerved backing Nicky's hurdle debutant Balkeo although it would only have been a small bet anyway as i initimated the previous day, in fact, if i had seen the odds drift i may not have backed it anyway. Alan had mentioned the negatives beforehand and turned out to be correct. My first bet on course was actually Vauban in Ireland (@ 5/2). Raced wide throughout and a few novicy jumping errors weren't positives, but when Paul joined the leading pair off the bend, i was reasonably confident his turn of foot would seal it and we shouted it home from that point. I thought it was a good run, he travelled well and bear in mind he went from a maiden to Grade 1 and in a decent field at that. Needs to improve his jumping, but in my opinion has a touch of class and is well up to winning the Triumph over a furlong further. If he doesn't win i would be hard pressed to pick an alternative as i think he has the beating of the main protagonists. Porticello is one i like (and put up here before) but i don't see him as a Triumph horse, more a staying type. The 5/2 on Vauban will not be available long either and not only because i have a feeling Pied Piper will be re-routed to the Supreme. My losses from his Punchestown debut run were recovered, as was my stake on the ante-post (currently £79 after a small increase last week) and i'm in profit overall so he owes me zilch. I will trade some of the AP bet (sensible thing to do at the odds) to ensure a profit either way, but not too much. My next bet was L'Homme Presse in the G1 Scilly Isles and i mentioned it didn't look a particularly strong G1. Jumped well (a bit left on occasion) and surely he's one of the best novice chasers in UK over 20f and will stay further easily in time. I suspect he will go for the Turners Novices and if Galopin Des Champs misses it, could be in with a shout. These were the only bets i had on the day and we left after watching the following handicap race, giving the last couple a miss. I didn't see Ed (Thompson) and Brian so maybe they were standing at Kempton. Leopardstown yesterday was Christmas, Easter and a Birthday all rolled into one for backers of favourites. I didn't do them all, but played Galopin Des Champs for a nice few quid (8/15). I called it a day after this, but Mr Spreadsheet did the obvious good thing double, so all in all a good betting weekend. All expenses paid for weekend in UK, returned home with more readies than i went with, a couple of English breakfasts, a steak meal on Saturday evening and not 1, but 2 sticky toffee puddings yesterday afternoon/evening (i know how to live well  ). The only negatives that immediately spring to mind is we didn't go to Dublin (it was discussed) and i didn't get to see Venetia W. C'est La Vie.My next trip is probably the pre-Cheltenham weekend and i'm discussing with a few posters who will attend on the Wednesday (i also want to go on the Tuesday). Have a nice evening all. | ||||||||
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Lay Post
Fakenham 1.52 - Tiny Tantrum A 6 year old Fame And Glory gelding trained by Lucy Wadham in Newmarket, Only offspring from the dam who was a 3 time novice hurdle winner. A 8 race maiden, 3 bumpers and 5 over hurdles. Snippets of place form on his CV and appears to have improved a little since taking the handicap route (2 previous runs) off marks of 95 and 96 respectively. The course will not be an issue (2 runs here) although he wasn't fluent on either occasion. Was 6/5f for his previous race, but tended to run in snatches and looked a bit one paced where it mattered. No runners have come out again since his previous race. Ran well enough on his penultimate run to be runner-up, but very few got into the race (a couple PU) won by probably Nicky Hendersons lowest rated hurdler in the stable, Lelantos. Up in class (4) from his previous run. I was surprised to see him dropped in trip (23.5f to 20f) in fact i thought the 4.25 race on the card over the longer trip was a better option. A small field of 5 in a tricky handicap and although the 10 lb claiming jockey reduces the weight burden i thought odds of 9/4 were short enough (everything being considered) hence the lay selection. I don't need to find the winner of course, but i thought Thirtyfourstitches was in with a shout. Lay @ 3.30 Good luck all. 09-Feb-22 08:09:30 13:52 Fakenham Tiny Tantrum - 2m4f Nov Hcap Hrd Betfair Bet ID 1:258087674317 | Matched: 09-Feb-22 08:09:37 Lay 3.30 50.00 -- 115.00 50.00 Matched | ||||||||
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Good Luck Andrew!
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Good Luck ANDREW
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.... Had a little go, good luck All.
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Thank you ANDREW
Easy Peasy | ||||||||
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Good call Andrew.
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WD AIS
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Not only the lay but the winner too! Top tipping Andrew!
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WD Andrew
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Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated. The lay selection Tiny Tantrum (2/1f) finished 3rd (of 5) beaten over 16L. Raced from the rear of the field and although not running in snatches as his previous run had to be given a shake of the reins after jumping several of the flights (from the 4th). Didn't look comfortable at times and at the 3rd last flight layers must have been. The front two pulled clear from the next and it was game over. My suggestion for the win, Thirtyfourstitches (100/30) made the running, stayed on well and is obviously suited to a sharp track. They don't come sharper than Fakenham, Mick The Miller would have excelled around it. Trainer Lucy Wadham has a good strike rate with hurdlers on the course, but there were many variables from his previous couple of placed runs there. Up in class, down in trip, the going, 10 lb claimer on board, twice used visor dispensed with and replaced with first time blinkers so i was surprised he held up in the betting as such. His SP has been 6/5f and 2/1f in his last couple of runs and is probably one to avoid for a while. 2022 Lay P/L Status
Note the W/L refers to the bet, not the horse. Minimal profit (pre 2% commission) but only 3 selections to date this year and a losing bet means playing catch up of course. What could have been +£150 is dramatically reduced, but never mind, it's early days. Maybe more later (work-load permitting). Good luck and have a nice Thursday all. | ||||||||
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Re posts from Feb 4th concerning Icone D'Aubrelle, we'll get an idea how good he is this afternoon at Doncaster, 3:20. Looks up against it with a 7lb penalty against older rivals, but I confess I know very little about the other runners.
Mr Mulholland doesn't have a great record in novice/maiden hurdles (6/73 this season), generally does much better in handicaps (32/188). | ||||||||
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well done ais !
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Afternoon Alan,
The poster Glasgow Calling (ref Feb 4th) didn't use it in the daily naps competition, so unless he wasn't aware it's a runner, i guess he shares a similar opinion to you. It's difficult to know what to make of the field and his 4 year old allowance is almost all negated by the win penalty, as you initimated. It could hose up, but i wouldn't be backing it and if someone asked me what was going to win, i think i would try to change the topic of conversation. A lot of newspaper tipsters have selected it, although i suspect this is simply due to question marks around the field and going with the fav. Foyleswar Thank you | ||||||||
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ttt
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Good afternoon Guys,
After the Lord Mayors show that was the Dublin Festival last weekend the quantity of quality is somewhat reduced, although Newbury takes centre stage with the Betfair sponsored card and 3 graded races. The main event (at least in terms of monetary value) is the G3 Betfair Hurdle (3.35) better known as 'The Schweppes' to older racing fans, a race won in bygone years by such hurdling flagbearers as Persian War and Make A Stand who both went on to win the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle. No such class runners today, in fact it's very doubtful any of the field will even run in the race. As so often in a major handicap hurdle with most of the top stables having a runner, selecting the winner is akin to the phrase involving needles and haystacks, very few of the field can be discounted really. My particular EW fancy, albeit tentative, is the Gary Moore trained Royaume Uni, currently trading around 16 for the win. I understand it's a Pricewise selection (according to Matt earlier) but i don't follow tipsters, i simply feel he's on a reasonable mark of 123 (only one runner rated lower) and has probably been aimed at this race for a while. Finished behind 2 of todays rivals in his previous couple of races, but is slightly better off at the weights. A fast pace is guaranteed with Jetoile giving the field a tow into the race, and if Royaume Uni can race a little more prominently than in recent races, his flat race speed could come into play late on. Paul Nicholls has several festival hopefuls entered on the card, Bravemansgame, Clan Des Obeaux and Hitman, all of which are short in the betting. Due to poor stable form all 3 could finish odds against that certainly wouldn't be the case under normal circumstances. Sooner or later the stable will regain form, but all are risky bets and i wouldn't be backing any of them. Mind you laying them also carries a risk and in my opinion all races are best watched without being involved financially. The Kingmaker novices chase at Warwick (2.05) looks interesting and could provide festival clues. I was at Sandown when Edwardstone beat Third Time Lucki in the Henry VIII (i backed the latter) but i feel the result could be reversed this afternoon. He was very headstrong that day, jumped indifferently and was beaten by the Pond fence, finishing very tired. Has won very easily since (albeit in a weak G2) and i think this was more in line with the horse i think he is. Mind you i also like Edwardstone, and Brave Seasca will not be a pushover by any means. Far Pleasure will go off like the proverbial bat out of hell, but jumping the 2nd last i see TTL taking it up. Odds of 3.0 are a little better than i expected. If there is a shortie at respectable odds anywhere, then Zambella (Uttoxeter 2.33) could be the bet at sensible stakes. She was a little disappointing finishing 2nd at odds of 4/11 LTO, but she was dropped in trip to 16f, it was good going and she didn't get the lead she obviously enjoyed in her previous runs. Back up to 20f this afternoon with a little juice in the ground, i expect her to lead and win. Currently trading around 1.80. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. PHS Thank you for the ttt | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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Risky place lay for me in the Schweppes. Bloomfield Burg at 2.2, three places only on BF, looks well worth a lay. Hendo has had one winner from 23 runners in the last 10 years and strikingly not a single place! He beat nothing LTO at 1/3F and those he beat struggled to frank the form in C4 NTO. This is such a big step up in class he just has to be laid. GL.
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Good morning Guys,
Trusty Well done on the place lay, your post had a better financial result than mine. Hope you made plenty. The banker Zambella was well backed and won by a proverbial street, but i got Third Time Lucki wrong, i thought he was better, although wasn't beaten so far. I like the winner Edwardstone, but TTL was far too headstrong at Sandown and different tactics (being restrained) would suit after working well LTO (a weak G2 it has to be said). They obviously didn't work, but it may well transpire that Edwardstone is simply a very good horse (winning time was decent) and is a rightful favourite for the Arkle. As for my tentative EW selection in the Betfair Hurdle, Royaume Uni, he never looked like winning, finishing down the field in 8th. I didn't fancy anything to back this afternoon, but will look for a lay selection before i go to the city. I put up Vauban at 16/1 for the Triumph before he ran at Punchestown (previous thread) and have another ante-post selection, Elixer De Nutz for the Grand Annual Chase at the Cheltenham festival. Won a limited novices handicap at Kempton on Friday. Led, jumped well and had it won 2 fences out, giving 12 lb to the runner-up. Winning time was easily fastest of the meeting compared to standard. The festival race is 2f shorter, but this shouldn't be an issue and he is a new/old course winner over hurdles. Lightly raced over fences and it appears the penny has dropped recently. On the negative side, he has an entry in the Arkle, but that is a strong field and even after handicapper intervention (ran off 135 yesterday) he may be on a decent mark. Odds of 25/1 available with 365/Sky bet, he could be worth a small EW stake for those that can get on, but if he goes for the race, i don't think he will be these odds on the day. I couldn't see a BF market for the race. Good luck and have a nice Sunday. | ||||||||
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Today's bet is the Bengals to beat the Rams @ 2.88. It's a 2 horse race so anything above 2.0 is a bet! The real reason is the US stock market closed down in January and the old adage is that whatever happens in January predicts what will happens for the rest of the year. In the Superbowl you need an AFC team if the market is going down, so the Bengals are the bet.
I won't be watching, don't even like American football, it is a pure stats bet! | ||||||||
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I meant to say thankyou for the thankyou. I ended up the laying 4 TBP @ 1.8 and 5TBP @ 1.55 and the win at 4.3 and 4.2 but my biggest win would have been if I Like To Move It had got up. Anyway could have been worse.
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Good afternoon Guys,
One horse i think could win this afternoon is Movethechains Lingfield 3.20). Regular readers will know i’ve up this one up before. Going for a 4 timer, but up 17 lb and a couple of classes (to 3) after reeling off a CD hat trick in easier grade. Lightly raced and could still be well handicapped such was the ease of these wins. Heavy going shouldn’t be an issue, he won a P2P on such and the sire revelled in it. Receives a lot of weight from the field. If there is a ? he hasn’t run for 82 days, but he did win a P2P after a 69 day lay-off, Gary can get them fit anyway. I backed earlier at 9/4, but he’s been cut to 6/4 due to a NR. Trusty Unlucky with the NFL bet, but i guess you didn’t lose as much as the USA punter that lost (or is it you  )https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/mattress-mack-takes-huge-7-million-hit-as-rams-beat-bengals-in-super-bowl/537984 I wouldn’t have a clue about NFL, i can never understand it. WD with the racing lays. Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all | ||||||||
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Trusty,
I was also on the Bengals and I do follow the NFL games and bet most weekends. This time we were beaten by the officials, who called almost no penalties in the first 58 minutes of the game, then when the Rams needed a score to take the lead inside the last two minutes and were struggling, the Bengals were penalised three times in consecutive plays, leaving the Rams on the one yard line with four goes at scoring a TD. The NFL operates a lot like the Premier League, the big teams get the calls, on field and VAR. Think of the LA Rams v Cincinatti Bengals as the equivalent of Man Utd v Watford. | ||||||||
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10 minutes Fergie time,and they score in the last seconds
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Well done with Movethechains
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anorak
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e officials did miss a blatant penalty for the bengals touchdown immediately after halftime
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ut yes the flags at the death certainly came out of nowhere
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PHS, so Andrew does back that low then?
Sorry if that's the case |
