Thank you ANDREW

Lampus/PHS

Thank you.

I thought the drop in trip was a benefit to Stainsby Girl (100/30) who made all the running (as mentioned) and stayed on really well. She was receiving plenty of weight from the favourite but this was part of the reasoning.

My nap in the daily competition and i needed it.

.... Yes , well done keeping the thread going Andrew, been quiet as regards thread spoilers but I wont speak too soon.!

Andrew,

4 of Boris’s 6 selections on Wednesday are under 5/2 and one of them hasn’t got a hope in hell of winning.

Stick a little write-up on it and that’s your official Lay sorted.

Hi The Dragon - Yes it has. I'm sure it will spring into life today!

Thank you ANDREW

G/L

Thank you ANDREW 

Well done Andrew

Nice one Andrew, keep it up.

I have been laying again, thread on General betting.

Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the comments. A nice return to posting on the thread after 6 days absence, 2/2 today (both backs) 3/1 and 5/6.

Unexpected Party was patiently ridden (travelled well) at the back before making a forward move jumping the 4th last. At the next flight he was almost pulling double and looked the winner at his point, although he nearly threw it away at the last before drawing right away and being eased down.

I suggested he could be well handicapped on a mark of 130, but the manner of the win will not have escaped the attention of Dominic and his team before revised ratings are released on Tuesday morning. He could be Cheltenham bound on this showing, maybe even the Martin Pipe, although he will have to be special to emulate last years winner, Galopin Des Champs who could be a superstar in waiting.

There were some other decent performance at a few tracks, but icing on the cake was clearly the Clarence House later in the afternoon, the duel most of us were eagerly awaiting and it certainly didn't disappoint, the race of the season by far.

Energumene led at a fast pace as expected (i'm interested in seeing the sectionals) and overall jumped a little better than Shishkin who pecked on landing at the 6th. Turning in he looked in trouble, at least temporarily, but the horse is a fighter and after the final fence i was getting more animated than Nico, shouting for him to press the button. Not the best thing to be doing with flu/sore throat, but how often do you see a NH chaser start to accelerate the way he can, almost Frankel style on rain softened ground. 

Pre-race, i thought Shishkin would win (without being overly confident aka Constitution Hill) and the single length proximity of Energumene is a bonus as it means they will almost certainly meet again at Chelthenham for round 2, in fact, it could turn into a Rocky series.

There was a heartwarming moment directly after the finishing line when Paul offered a handshake to Nico, a nice sporting gesture. WPM was also very humble in defeat, class acts, both of them.

I don't want to discuss what will happen at Cheltenham here, it doesn't matter anyway, today was about 2 exceptional chasers and a superb advertisment for the sport we love. The punter that backed Energumene to the tune of 360K would probably agree with me and anyone that backs with that sort of stake isn't too worried about losing it.

Looking forward and on the other side of the world, the 6 year old gelding Golden Sixty goes for his 17th successive win (and 20/21) in the G1 Stewards Cup at Sha Tin tomorrow (08.00). He won this race in 2021, albeit only just at odds of 1/5.

Shanelee

I don't think i have ever opened 'General Betting' but good luck with the lays and i will take a look later.

Happysandwich

I thought he was in trouble rounding the bend (we all must have done) but i didn't expect him to fold tamely. Once they had jumped the last and Nico started his run i was always fairly confident he would prevail, his turn of foot is part of what makes him a bit special.

Watch the video of his win in the 2020 Supreme, he knows how to battle and that was a decent field.

You will have read my post on WhatsApp this morning saying Nico could leave his challenge until after the last.

On yesterday's evidence Energumine (without a mishap to the Henderson horse) will never finish ahead of Shiskin in a 2 mile race,literally everything fell lovely for the Irish raider and it still wasn't enough (hugged the rail the whole way and jumped perfectly compared to his main opponent).

The hill in March would see the gap only widen imho.

Hi Andrew,
On fire atm and long may it continue.
I notice Nico has gone to Lingfield for one ride in the first whereas as he could ride a couple at Warwick, the fist Fantastic Lady which I've picked in the comps was entered 5 times this week and goes for this the last of those entries this week, would feel more confident if Nico had gone to Warwick but maybe that's a tip for swapped.
Have a good Sunday

Good afternoon Lucky

Apologies, didn't see your post earlier.

Good luck with Fantastic Lady, James is a decent deputy for Nico and an in-form jockey.

Nice spot Lucky L.

Lucky

WD with the selection yesterday, a nice price.

good luck Andrew

I backed Wyvern, my lay was NOBLE MARK in that race, Prescott is no good with such horses. Always beware of the steaming fav.

Cheers for comments re Fantastic lady.
Had a good day until poor Mr TT suffered his fatal injury.

Can’t win them all Andrew, good reasoning but wasn’t to be today.
We move on

Good morning Guys,

Thanks for the comments.

The less said about my lay selection (Wyvern 6/4f) post yesterday, the better, and any thoughts of mitigation would only be digging myself a deeper hole. Made all, quickened a furlong out and drew away to win easily, looking much better than a class 5 novice winner. In hindsight a poor selection, but i was content with it pre-race.

Racing can make fools of us at times, it certainly did with me yesterday.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

2022 Lay P/L Status

Current Progress	1/2
Running Form	WL
Daily Loss	£88
Running P/L	-£38

Happysandwich

A Wyvern is mythical, i guess it's the same with the 'O's is it. ?

Bristol City also lost (the poster madhatters will be happy) but this is a regular occurence with my lot.

Morning Andrew,
Excerpt taken from yesterday’s paper, good luck with your bet at 16s
10:00AM, JAN 26 2022
 
Vauban
JCB Triumph Hurdle, Cheltenham, March 18

In the two decades before Our Conor’s stunning success in 2013, they managed to win just three runnings, while the ever-entertaining Davy Russell would routinely refer to the race as one for the ‘Flat rats’ on Cheltenham Festival preview evenings – even after he won it on Tiger Roll!

Our Conor, though, sparked a major revival in Irish fortunes and they are now the dominant force when it comes to juveniles, having won the race in six of the last ten years.

Of course, the Irish are now the dominant force in pretty much every discipline, but this used to be the race they were no good at whatsoever, and that has very much changed.

It’s no surprise to see them dominate the market and there really can be no argument with the Gordon Elliott-trained Fil Dor being favourite.

If he goes straight to Cheltenham after winning the Knight Frank over Christmas it would be hard to see him being dislodged in the market, but there is the matter of the Dublin Racing Festival, where he would be likely to face a stiffer challenge than he has so far.


Fil Dor has, of course, done nothing wrong, but I have my doubts over exactly what he has achieved and at 5-2 he is surely short enough for ante-post purposes.

After winning his maiden by a wide margin at Down Royal in October, Fil Dor has gone on to beat Lunar Power in the Grade 3 Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse and again in the Grade 2 Knight Frank at Leopardstown.

However, one thing I hate when it comes to studying formlines is seeing the same line of form. What if Lunar Power, a pretty experienced 84-rated performer on the Flat, just isn’t that good? Of course, Fil Dor extended his superiority over Lunar Power from a length and a quarter at Fairyhouse to seven lengths at Leopardstown, but the latter race was run at a muddling pace and the winning time was desperate.

There were three other 2m hurdles run on the track that day – two maidens and a handicap in which the first two were rated 112 and 97 – and Fil Dor’s winning time was at least six seconds slower than the other three.

He was nothing special from two out to the line either and I get the impression it will be a poor year if there is nothing better than him around.

That might be a bold statement given he is 5-2 and it is 9-1 bar, but I believe he has to be taken on.

And the one to take him on with is second favourite Vauban, who at this point is still a maiden having been chinned at odds of 4-9 by Fil Dor’s stablemate Pied Piper at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve.

You could argue that was disappointing, but you have to forgive any horse a defeat on debut, and I have little doubt Vauban would have won had he not made a mess of the last.


That looked a decent race and the time compared favourably with the other race over the same trip on the card (a little over nine seconds faster), while the 15-length third HMS Seahorse has since finished a close second in a 20-runner maiden hurdle, giving the form some substance.

Vauban jumped well in the main, but his mistake came at the wrong time, and given a little bit more yardage he would have got up.

That’s significant because the Punchestown race was run over 1m7½f and the Triumph is over 2m1f and presents a much stiffer test of stamina.

Vauban, out of a 1m5f winner from the family of St Leger winner Masked Marvel, clearly stays very well, as he proved in four Flat starts in France, the last two of which resulted in wins, including a 1m4f soft-ground Listed race at Vichy.

Some of those he beat there have continued to run well in similar company and there’s no reason to doubt his official French rating of 101, which would make him one of the best recruits from the Flat in the race.

The Willie Mullins-trained juvenile has an entry in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival next week, hence the need to get him in the portfolio now, as I think he’s well up to giving Fil Dor a race if Gordon Elliott sends the Triumph favourite there, and I’m pretty sure he’ll win in his absence.

The potential for him to shorten dramatically is there, although, of course, it could all go pear-shaped too!

Mullins also has the unbeaten Icare Allen in the Spring, and he made a fine debut when scoring at Leopardstown over Christmas.

However, he only beat an 80-1 chance, while the third, who was beaten little more than three lengths, was well behind HMS Seahorse when fifth at Punchestown next time.

The British challenge should not be ignored, although I can’t say anything has particularly blown me away.

The Paul Nicholls-trained Iceo was certainly easy on the eye when scoring by 17 lengths at Kempton over Christmas, but it has to be a worry that he raced so keenly in a first-time hood (didn’t wear one when successful in France), and on the evidence we have seen so far he didn’t beat much.

Those with more solid form include Porticello and Knight Salute, both of whom look tough.

You certainly wouldn’t begrudge Gary Moore a Triumph win with Porticello given what happened to Goshen a few years ago, but while he is a much more straightforward character, he does have a tendency to boot a hurdle out of the ground.

You can get away with that in smallish fields on soft ground, but if conditions have quickened up by the Friday, which is often the case, he’ll be in trouble.

Knight Salute is 4-4 and has won two Grade 2s, taking advantage of Porticello’s final-flight error ar Doncaster last time, but a peak RPR of 124 is below some maiden winners and a good 20lb below what would be an average Triumph winner, so he surely has to improve a great deal to be a player.

Therefore we will stick to the one selection and hope Vauban takes a big step forward at Leopardstown next week.