Good afternoon Alan,

Some of those he beat there have continued to run well in similar company and there’s no reason to doubt his official French rating of 101, which would make him one of the best recruits from the Flat in the race.

You make a valid point with respect to the line above by the RP pundit, and i agree those behind him in the listed race at Vichy have not franked the form. Having said that, when i reviewed Vauban before his hurdle run in Ireland (previous thread) i was basing my opinion on all 4 runs and taking his overall form, i thought he could be a decent recruit from the flat (lightly raced as well)/

On debut he ran 4th at Longchamp behind In Crowd, who has won since and been runner-up in his last 3, all listed class. A reasonable first run. Next time out, he was 4th to Alter Adler, probably the best horse he's run against, who has won again since and been runner-up in the German and Italian Derbies, as well as a French G3.

Vauban then proceeded to win his next two, a small conditions race and the listed race at Vichy (after trouble in running). New connections obviously saw some future potential as the deal was made before the latter race, but a proviso of the sale was allowing it to run in the owners/breeders colours (obviously looking for the Black Type). His flat form may not be exceptional, but he's certainly one to note for a Triumph Hurdle.

I thought he was the 'moral' winner at Punchestown where he was heavlly backed (odds against the night before) but sadly bookies only pay out on official results. The heavy going favoured the winner Pied Piper and the last flight mistake almost certainly cost him the race. I was a little disappointed he didn't win, but as an introduction to the NH game, i thought he ran well.

Pied Piper was also entered for the Spring Juvenile Hurdle next week, but i will watch his run at Cheltenham on Saturday with interest, although he's a soft/heavy ground horse for me and as i mentioned on my previous thread i would back Vauban to beat him next time.

The Triumph doesn't really have an outstanding candidate yet, although the next couple of weeks could change this of course. I agree with the RP comments on Fil Dor, although Iceo could be anything.

At 16/1, Vauban was an EW bet and suggested as a trade, but i doubt i will unless he wins impressively next week and drops to a short price, it would make sense of course. I think we will see a different horse next week (i would say this though) so even 6/1 (8.80 on here) may be value.

Many thanks for your input, as always.

Good luck.

Thank you ANDREW

Good morning Guys,

Some decent cards this afternoon, specially at Cheltenham with no less than 5 graded races, Doncaster with a couple and not to be outdone, Fairyhouse stage the Grade 3 novice hurdle in memory of the wonderful mare Solerina, winner of 18/29 in this discipline including the G1 Hattons Grace.

Nicky Henderson sends 3 of his March festival hopefuls to Prestbury Park and looking at the odds could win with all of them, but betting is never this straightforward. Champ looks the more obvious one in the Cleeve hurdle (3.05) as it appears he only has the PN trained Mcfabulous to beat. Paisley Park, winner of this race in 2019 and 2020 is not the force of old, Lisnagar Oscar is also regressing and we can forget the outsider. Mind you, odds of 2/5 are short enough.

One race i'm particularly interested in (and a few other posters) is the Triumph Juvenile Hurdle (12.45) that on paper at least appears to be a match between the unbeaten Iceo and ex-flat recruit Pied Piper who was owned by the Queen up to October last year. The former was impressive when winning in a fast time at Kempton LTO and the latter won well at Punchestown beating Vauban (my long range EW selection for the Triumph).

I was expecting their respective odds to be closer and backers of Pied Piper at even money should be aware his 3 wins were on heavy going and on right handed tracks. Of course i want him to win and frank the Vauban form, although i've stated on here a couple of times i would be with the latter next time they meet, but he's not a given by any means. Iceo could be anything, and it wouldn't be a shock if the LTO CD winner Interne De Sivola won (the runner-up and 3rd have won since).

The G3 novice chase at Doncaster (1.35) looks interesting and i'm still a fan of Third Time Lucki even though i backed him at Sandown LTO when he was well beaten in the Henry VIII (ran far too freely). Can be an exhuberant jumper at times, although prone to the odd error as well. For Pleasure will no doubt go off at a zillions miles per hour and it will be a case of catch me if you can. All 3 runners have collateral form with Edwardstone and in this context Do Your Job comes out the best, although i wouldn't read too much into this. Third Time Lucki has to concede 5 lb to both and i think the race will be won in the last 1/2f. If i had to select one, it would be the favourite, but i'm not backing him.

A little bit of fence sitting, so on to a couple of selections, starting with a shortie.

Miranda (Doncaster 2.10) won this race last year beating the favourite Floressa and without this one in the field could be a bet for a repeat win. Only won in a photo at Ludlow LTO, but was very slowly away (almost refusing to race) and the conditional jockey did well under the circumstances. Whilst it was only a class 2 handicap, she was giving 18lb and 21lb away to the placed runners even allowing for the 5lb jockey claim. Bryony on board today and if there isn't a repitition of her anctics at the start, i think she will win (current odds 1.92).

I put up Jacamar on here when he won at 11/1 LTO and he could be worth a small win/3TBP stake in the Paddy Power Chase this afternoon (1.55). He came with a decent run off a fast pace at Sandown getting up close home under a good Danny Mullins ride. The handicapper has only raised him 3 lb and although this will be a career high winning mark (133) i think he could be up to it. He's already looking a better chaser than hurdler (form figures of 3-2-2-1) and should get a decent tow into the race with Coole Cody up front. Odds are currently 9.0/3.0).

Over at Gulfstream Park (USA) this evening the Pegasus sponsored card includes an invitational race (10.34) on dirt featuring a couple of 2021 Breeders Cup winners in Knicks Go and Life Is Good, the winner receiving £1.3 million. This really does look a match between a couple of very closely matched rivals who both like to run from the front. Betting wise, it looks evens the two, but i favour the younger (and outsider of the pair) Life Is Good, who but for a neck could be unbeaten in 5 runs.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Morning Andrew,

I know stats do not play much of a part in your race assessments but the Cotswold chase at Cheltenham has only been won once by the favourite in the past 20 years.

That was Santini in 2020 and would it be the biggest surprise if not only did the favourite fail again but the aforementioned was to win the race again, rated much higher previously and ran quite well last time first race for 266 days, traded 2.5 IR although I appreciate just a many reasons why not.

Chantry house was never going well and ran no race at all last time, I'm not aware of any reason given and Simply the Bets (if he stays) and Aye Right both have chances as well.

Thanks for the post and good luck
Hopefully Pied Piper runs a decent race and boosts the form with Vaubon !

Good morning Guys,

A lot of typing for minimal upshot yesterday, Pied Piper and Third Time Lucki won (i didn't back either) but Miranda faded tamely after travelling easily at the 3rd last. Maybe the ground was a bit lively, it was described as good by the RP although it looked on the soft side of that to my eye.

Jacimar (EW) didn't jump well and simply wasn't good enough on the day although take the winner out and he wasn't beaten far.

I did go out with a winner with Life Is Good in the 'match' at Gulfstream, but again unbacked. He was outsider of the pair during the day (albeit almost joint favourites) but backed into favourtism on the night. He's very fast and it will take a good one to beat him in the Dubai World Cup if he goes there.

I noticed the ex-Richard Fahey trained Space Traveller finished 3rd in the previous race over there. In 5 runs without winning he's earned circa £220K in place money in the USA, owners over here can only dream of such returns.

Most surprising result of the day (considering the circumstances) was Paisley Park who was probably insulted by me suggesting he was not the force of old. I don't think the odds-on favourite Champ did anything wrong, it was simply a case of PP coming alive on a course he loves and brings the best out of him (course form 0-1-1-1-0-3-1).

The race i had a particular interest in (not financially) was the Juvenile won by Pied Piper and very impressively at that. What he beat is questionable, but he looked well above average and as a result has replaced Fil Dor as favourite for the Triumph. Mind you he wouldn't look out of place in the Supreme and Gordon Elliott hasn't ruled this out.

He's obviously improved since Punchestown and i'm hoping Vauban has done the same and wins well next Saturday. My average odds of 16 on him are looking good at present but he needs to win and beat Fil Dor to reinforce my bet.

I'm going to London Friday evening (back Monday morning) so i'll find a shop to watch the race, unelsss i decide to go to Sandown for the Scilly Isles meeting.

A couple of typical Sunday afternoon NH meetings in UK and better quality over at Naas with the G3 Limestone Lad hurdle. I didn't fancy anything strongly on home soil, bar one at Sedgefield (1.30) that i've already backed at better odds than currently, Anyharminasking. Has a beating of Constitution Hill no less on his CV although he's never going to emulate that one of course. Ran to a reasonable level in a trio of subsequent races and looked way ahead of his handicap mark LTO, so easily did he win, i could have ridden him. Mind you, it didn't go unnoticed and he's been raised 13lb for the win, but even now could be on a lenient mark. Upped in class, but i think he will win and to add to the substance, it's the father and son's only runner/mount.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Lampus, Lucky and England v SA

Thank you for the posts.

Lucky, the only stat i love is Frankel retired undefeated (thankfully).

Well done Andrew it won like you said it would.

^until now.

Mr Spreadsheet,

I’ve been posting this link occasionally on Boris’s thread for a while but just found out it doesn’t work.
Don’t get much technical feed back on there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_NbwCB7bvZhuTUFzjK5tzv5rEwBss-h05hKGENL9v-o/edit#gid=0

Can this link be opened so it can be read but not altered like the one you done for Andrew?
Btw. I’m not in competition with Andrew in any way – mines just pure luck.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_NbwCB7bvZhuTUFzjK5tzv5rEwBss-h05hKGENL9v-o/edit?usp=sharing

If not how is it done please - Cheers

Happy = Good figures after 7 weeks - Good luck this week

Help with Wolverhampton 7:30 Thapa Vc 1st 13/8 DH BFSP 2.81 layed to win £10
I need to know what I put on my Excel chart above.
How much did the bet win or lose.
Thanks


This was my personal bet – I only lost £7.22 because I cashed out while the photo was still going on..

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Thapa Vc
1.72
£17.20
£12.38
Ref: 257315926789 Matched: 19:37 31-Jan-22
Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Thapa Vc
2.96
£1.44
£4.26
Ref: 257315148035 Matched: 19:25 31-Jan-22
Thapa Vc
2.96
£8.56
£25.34
Ref: 257315148035 Matched: 19:25 31-Jan-22

Happy - I would have this as a -£4.05 loss @ BFSP of 2.81

£10 @ 2.81 = £18.10 - You lose only half of this as its a DH (£9.05) but you win half the stake too (£5). Which gives you the loss of £4.05. You dont pay commission on the £5 as its a losing bet.

HTH

TheAnorak Good luck with Love Dreams tonight at Kempton.

TheAnorak,gl,horse has form to win,Enduring the fav appears weak in the market

^
it home.

Evening Andrew,

Thanks, he almost certainly will go over a mile next time, although that's mostly down to a lack of suitable 7F races in the period we're aiming for. Current thinking is Chelmsford on Mar 3rd.
.
Although not managing to win, he's proving to be a great horse to own, thanks to his consistency and the fact that he picks up prize money in most of his races. I wonder how many Placepots he completed as the final leg selection this evening?

*team

Good morning Guys,

Off to Gatwick this evening (Easy Jet permitting) for the Sandown Scilly Isles meeting tomorrow so posting a few muses in case i don’t get chance later. Staying in Crawley overnight, lateral flow covid test in London (thank you Boris ) before meeting up with another poster and then on to the course.

Today’s cards are a little hit and miss, but one i did back earlier was No Flies On Me at Lingfield (4.24). Consistent with a 1-1-2-2 record at Lingfield (only AW runs) and has improved his rating in each of his past 4 consecutive runs. I expect him to jump to the front from the off and have enough in hand at the line to win.

Sandown (tomorrow) looks a decent card although i suspect connections of a few runners would like a little more rain. Nicky Henderson has an interesting UK debutant entry in the opener (12.40) the ex-French trained hurdler, Balkeo owned by Joe and Marie Donnelly (Shishkin and Al Boum Photo fame amongst others) so the colours will be instantly recognisable. Breeding is not exceptional (half-brother to Vauban) but his hurdle form is respectful in the context of this field and he has the Gary Moore runner to beat (ran poorly behind Constitution Hill over CD LTO). If he’s supported in the ring i may back it, albeit only to a small stake.

Irrespective of Balkeo, i will be backing L’Homme Presse (sensibly) in the main race on the card, the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase (2.20). This improving chaser with a 3/3 record is generally fluent, although did tend to jump to the left at Exeter and Sandown so needs to avoid here. Has gone up 26lb in the ratings since his debut chase and will not look out of place in one of the novice chase events at the Cheltenham festival. Ignoring the Paul Nicholls trained Pic D’Orhy (rated a lb higher) it doesn’t look a particularly strong grade 1 (PN can’t buy a winner at the moment) and i expect the favourite to win.

Hopefully i get to see the lovely Venetia, there's something about her i like, but i have a feeling it involves a fur coat and an Aston Martin.

The 18 runner handicap hurdle (2.55) appears to be a minefield and my lucky pin has fallen on Emma Lavelle’s Flemcara (currently 20/1) although you could pick 10 and not get the winner. I selected this one in the forum NH big race competition and may have a small EW at the course. I expect him to lead the field a merry dance so at least i will get a run for my money, but he’s not a forlorn hope by any means.

Over in Ireland, there is a superb weekend at the Dublin Festival with many of the races a WPM v GE dual (as so often over there) and regular readers will have no doubt which race i’m particularly interested in, the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile hurdle (1.35). I mentioned Vauban as an EW bet (or trade) for the 2022 Triumph Hurdle on my previous thread and backed him at varying odds before and since his last run where he was heavily backed and finished runner-up to Pied Piper. The latter was visually very impressive winning next time out at Cheltenham, but i doubt it was a strong race, the time was slow and the form horses never showed anyway.

I thought Vauban a little unlucky at Punchestown and have maintained since he would beat Pied Piper next time out, so i’m obviously hoping he beats the likely favourite Fil Dor tomorrow and become the new Triumph Hurdle favourite. With a potential low 4-figure profit if he wins (at odds of 18 and down with an average of just under 16 now) i may trade part of it at least (this would be the sensible option). I like the horse and think he will win tomorrow and at Cheltenham, although i have a suspicion GE will re-route one of his pair to the Supreme (probably Pied Piper). If Vauban wins impressively tomorrow keep an eye on the TV screen for a proverbial nutter screaming him home.

I think Riviere D’etal will turn over the likely favourite Blue Lord in the Arkle Novices chase (2.10) in receipt of 9lb.

Sunday is the day i hope to win the weekend expenses with a couple of shorties (the obvious ones) but more about these on the day

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

andrew, enjoy your trip to sandown, keep an eye on our old friend five star getaway, runs in the 3-30, think there is more improvemen

Re Balkeo, a positive is that Henderson will surely do better with the horses than the lady who was training it in France, as she's primarily a flat trainer with a 1/34 career record in NH races. A negative is that he's been with Henderson since early June and already had a wind operation.

The French form is nothing special with the latest run the best - the winner of that has improved and won again since, the third (Piccadilly Lilly) hasn't run since, and has been sent to Alan King also last June, but she is entered for the Mares Hurdle at the Festival.

Glasgow,

I can't find anything about the sale price, so probably a private sale. The French connections are regular sellers to the UK market. The race he won was for newcomers, so the form is difficult to assess. As you mention, the 4th (not last, 7 ran) has since been second in a Listed race, but that race was restricted entry and nowhere near the standard of a UK Listed race.

The horse that finished second only managed 7th on his subsequent hurdle start, and then pulled up in a claiming chase, where he was entered for 20,000 euros. So I wouldn't be rushing to back Icone D'Aubrelle without seeing some evidence of his ability over here.

This is the translation of the conditions for that French 'Listed' hurdle:

"For all 3-year-old colts and fillies who, in one of their last six races over jumps, have either been ranked in the top seven of a race which has served as a basis for registered bets at national level, or who have received an allowance of 7,500, or was classified in the first three of a prize (A Claiming excepted) run on a 1st category racecourse."