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Replies: 859
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Nov 20 11:41
WOW
Even I'm impressed.

You realise it was with all the "No Bets" deleted.
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Nov 20 11:48
Apart from the missing loss of £123.60 in week 4
By:
ericster
When: 15 Nov 20 12:48
Just thought I'd have a look, tbh I'd forgotten all about it, Lord Accord in the 4 runner at Font. Unseated @ 13/8.
Another one for the LHTS wallet.Grin
Could  have a look at these novice events in the future and see if and how the negatives stack up, especially at those odds.
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Nov 20 16:02
ericster,

These are all the races with the word NOVICES in, up until Wednesday.
Lay the Favorite in them.
It’s just an exorcise and I’ve put in after the track time whether Chase or Hurdle.

1. The price would be manageable.
2. They’re still learning.

    Lay Favourites in Novice races                                                   
            Horse Name        Position        Odds        BFSP        Lost        Won   
    Sunday 15th Nov                                                   
    Fontwell 12:25  (Novice H.)        Lord Accord        UR        13/8 fav        2.77                £10.00   
    Fontwell 1:00  (Novice C.)        Republican        2nd        15/8 fav        3.20                £10.00   
    Cheltenham 1:15        The Big Breakaway        1st        4/9 fav        1.52        £5.20           
    Cheltenham 3:35        Third Time Lucky        2nd        Evens        2.00                £10.00   
                                                       
    Monday 16th Nov                                                   
    Leicester 1:30  (Novice C.)                                                   
    Plumpton 12:45  (Novice H.)                                                   
    Kempton 4:25                                                     
                                                       
    Tuesday 17th Nov                                                   
    Fakenham 1:03  (Novice C.)                                                   
    Fakenham 1:33   (Novice H.)                                                   
    Lingfield 1:11                                                   
    Newcastle53:15                                                   
                                                       
    Wednesday 18th Nov                                                   
    Warwick 12:20   (Novice H.)                                                   
    Warwick 12:55   (Novice C.)                                                   
    Warwick 1:30   (Novice H.)                                                   
    Ffos Las 12:30  (Novice H.)                                                   
    Ffos Las 1:40  (Novice H.)                                                   
    Dundalk 3:35                                                   
    Kempton 4:55                                                   
    Kempton 5:25                                                   
                                                       
                                                       
                                    Totals        £5.20        £30.00   
By:
ericster
When: 15 Nov 20 16:16
Hapsan, it's tempting, it really is, especially while the ground is soft,and as you say, the prices ARE managable, might just see how far back I can research it, would give me something to do.
I'm a loser of so many years now though, probably wouldn't know a winner if it peed on my boots.
Am having fun with the LHTS angle  handicapps and am looking forward to that one at Leicester tmorra.
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Nov 20 16:21
Week 5 results sheet.
and in technicolor Laugh

    WEEK 5                                                           
            Horse Name        Position        Odds        BFSP        Lost        Won           
    Sunday 15th Nov                                                           
    Punchestown 1:05        Buildmeupbuttercup        1st        3/1        4.42                        No Bet   
    Punchestown 1:05        Daylight Katie        5th        9/1        12.60                        No Bet   
    Fontwell 12:25  (Novice H.)        Lord Accord        UR        13/8        2.77                £10.00           
    Cheltenham 2:25        Put The Kettle On        1st        7/4        2.73        £17.30                   
    Cheltenham 4:05        Weseekhimhere        3rd        10/11        2.01                £10.00           
                                                               
    Monday 16th Nov                                                           
    Leicester 1:00        Breffniboy                                                   
    Dundalk 3:45        Saltonstall                                                   
                                                               
    Tuesday 17th Nov                                                           
                                                               
                                                               
                            Totals                 £17.30        £20.00           
                                                               
                            Losing bets                 1                   
                            Winning bets                2                   
                            No Bets                2                   
By:
The Management
When: 15 Nov 20 16:39
Hi Happy - good to see you digging "beneath the surface"  (even if it is just a little bit) - looking at Novices.

I think the gold is buried deeper - but picking up the shovel is the first step imo. GL.
By:
ericster
When: 15 Nov 20 16:43
hapsan, I've had a look at this week's results,  mmmmmmm, there IS potential in laying novices.
Will look further into it but it might be worth playing, kill the boredom without getting hammered, a few tweaks here and there, like leaving favs alone at Hereford for instance. If there is one rule of mine that has stood the test of time, it's don't oppose the favs at Hereford. No, of course they don't all win but I wouldn't want to a course-bookie at that course.
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Nov 20 17:09
TM & ericster,

These 2 cut and pastes into this sheet are to show the worst case scenario if starting at the wrong time.

You can also work out how many points you would need in your pot to cover those type of eventuality and still have money to carry on.

    Thursday 29th Oct                                                           
    Lingfield 3:45         Sorrel        1st        3/1        4.16        31.6                   
    Southwell 6:15         Exalted Angel        2nd        10/11 fav        2.16                £10.00           
                                                               
    Friday 30th Oct                                                           
    Wetherby 2:45         Duffle Coat        1st        11/4        3.98        29.8                   
    Newmarket 2:55         Whitehaven        1st        11/10        2.19        11.9                   
    Newmarket 3:30         Waters Edge        4th        11/5        3.52                £10.00           
                                                               
    Saturday 31st Oct                                                           
    Wetherby 1:00        Kearney Hill        2nd        17/2        5.70                        No Bet   
    Wetherby 1:00        Pennyforapound        5th        13/2        7.33                        No Bet   
    Down Royal 12:40        Quilixios        1st        1/16        1.08        0.08                   
    Down Royal 3:00        Easy Game        2nd        10/11        1.93                £10.00           
                                                               
    Sunday 1st Nov                                                           
    Carlisle 1:05        Tupelo Mississippi        2nd        13/8        2.72                £10.00           
    Huntingdon 3:58        The Late Legend        4th        15/8        2.98                £10.00           
                                                               
                                    Totals        =SUM(L2:L19)        £50.00           
    This is off another sheet                                                           
    Monday 9th Nov                                                           
    Kempton 12:40        Pink Sheets        1st        85/40        3.14        21.4                   
    Kempton 2:48        Flashing Glance        6th        100/30        4.50                £10.00           
    Southwell 5:05  AW        Charlie Fellowes        1st        5/4        2.46        14.6                   
    Southwell 7:05  AW        Beat The Heat        1st        100/30        4.80        38                   
                                                               
    Tuesday 10th Nov                                                           
    Lingfield 1:23        Isla's Dream        11th        18/1        23.63                        No bet   
    Huntingdon 1:45        Motueka        8th        150/1        323.25                        No bet   
    Lingfield 3:23        Robin Gold        3rd        5/2 jf        3.65                £10.00           
    Newcastle 2:50        Pax Britannica        3rd        5/4 fav        2.51                £10.00           
    Newcastle 5:55        Conservatoire        2nd        5/4 fav        2.35                        No bet   
    Newcastle 5:55        Imperial Butterfly        3rd        9/2        6.38                        No bet   
                                                               
    Wednesday 11th Nov                                                           
    Ayr 1:10        Alaphilippe        1st        Evens        1.99        9.9                   
    Bangor 3:33        Chirico Vallis        2nd        11/4        4.20                £10.00           
    Exeter 2:36        Annsam        Fell        18/1        20.00                        No bet   
    Ayr 2:50        Bigirononhiship        2nd        5/1        7.08                        No bet   
    Bangor 3:00        Easy As That        2nd        11/10        2.21                £10.00           
                                                               
    Thursday 12th Nov                                                           
    Sedgefield 2:32        Etoile Du Matin        6th        10/1        17.20                        No bet   
    Ludlow 1:40        Threeunderthrufive        1st        7/4        2.87        18.7                   
                                                               
    Friday 13th Nov                                                           
    Newcastle 12:18        Espoir Moriviere        5th        3/1        4.70                £10.00           
    Newcastle 1:58        Doktor Glaz        2nd        11/2        7.27                        No bet   
    Newcastle 1:58        Crocodile Dundee        3rd         11/4        4.40                        No bet   
    Fairyhouse 12:55        Rudy Catrail        7th        6/1        8.77                        No bet   
    Fairyhouse 12:55        Clonguile Way        PU        7/2 fav        5.03                        No bet   
    Cheltenham 3:00        Potters Corner        3rd        17/2        12.50                        No bet   
    Cheltenham 3:35        Does He Know        1st        11/8        2.53        15.3                   
    Cheltenham 4:05        Leroy Leroy        15th        22/1        39.81                        No bet   
    Cheltenham 4:05        The Bees knees        4th        3/1        4.60                        No bet   
    Cheltenham 4:05        Seaborn        PU        40/1        70.00                        No bet   
    Dundalk 5:00 (AW)        Leabaland        2nd        3/1        4.92                        No bet   
    Dundalk 5:00 (AW)        Helen De Pourtales        8th        9/2        7.80                        No bet   
    Wolver 4:45 (AW)        Garth Rockett        8th        7/2 fav        5.70                £10.00           
                                                               
    Saturday 14th Nov                                                           
    Lingfield 11:40        Casaruan        2nd        5/2        3.92                £10.00           
                                                               
                                    Totals        =SUM(L23:L64)        £80.00           
                                                               
By:
ericster
When: 15 Nov 20 17:24
As with the LHTS plan, I shall monitor this for a while. Just a quick look-back, and instinct, tells me to put a limit on odds layed and, as with the handicaps, consider course characteristics and going.

Interesting though hapsan, interesting.
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Nov 20 17:30
The missing Totals are :-

£73.38

£117.90
By:
ericster
When: 15 Nov 20 18:09
Was just looking at the 2.00 @Leics.
An odds/on hotpot in a novice hdl, would seem be out on it's own but there are so many what-ifs there.
We shall see eh?Plain
By:
the_dak
When: 15 Nov 20 20:49
I've just been through your first sheet and spotted an interesting pattern( I know this is a laying thread but this could be a good backing system) I looked at the form of all the horses that won a handicap for the first time and then went on to run in a handicap again.................No Regrets        won (11-10)    19/08/2020    Novices' Handicap Hurdle   
        10/08/2020    Handicap Hurdle    
               
Frow        won (11-4)    19/10/2020    Handicap   
        14/10/2020    Handicap    
               
Conscious        won (3-1)    22/09/2020    Handicap   
        12/08/2020    Handicap   
               
Toronado Queen        won (15-8)    29/09/2020    App Handicap   
        21/09/2020     Handicap   
               
Ocean Wind        won (13-8)    23/10/2020    Handicap   
        19/09/2020    Handicap   
               
Opera Gift        2nd (6-5)    23/10/2020    Handicap   
        12/10/2020    Handicap   
               
    Beat The Judge        3rd (4-1)    23/10/2020    Handicap Chase    
        12/09/2020    Handicap Chase   
               
    Colonel Whitehead        3rd (6-1)    02/08/2020    Handicap   
        23/07/2020    Handicap   
               
    Jackmel        2nd (4-1)    09/11/2018    Handicap (45-65)   
        02/11/2018    Handicap (45-65)   
               
    Sassoon        won (13-2)    16/10/2020    Handicap   
        08/10/2020    Handicap   
               
    Neville’s Cross        won (11-10)    13/10/2020     Handicap Hurdle   
        09/09/2020    Novices' Handicap Hurdle    
               
    Lock’s Corner        won (2-1)    20/11/2019    Handicap Hurdle   
        15/10/2019    Handicap Hurdle   
               
    Eric Bloch        won (8-1)    17/10/2020     Handicap   
        29/09/2020     Handicap   
               
    Smokey        won (13-2)    17/10/2020    Handicap   
        19/09/2020    Handicap   
               
    Call Me Vick        2nd (9-1)    25/03/2017    Handicap Chase   
        03/12/2016    Handicap Chase   
               
    Kendergarten Kop        won (8-1)    17/10/2020    Handicap   
        29/09/2020    Handicap   
               
    Natural History        2nd (7-2)    08/09/2018    Handicap   
        23/08/2018    Handicap
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Nov 20 23:11
The-dak,

Very interesting observation.

What program are you keeping your records on (Word?), have you got Excel or any spreadsheet program?

Won a Handicap LTO but time before that was NOT a Handicap.
Is that what you are saying?

I’ve gone through Monday’s runners in the RP and think these are the only 3 at Plumpton that meet the criteria you’ve spotted.
Correct me if I’m wrong and are there any I’ve missed.

            Horse Name        Finish        Odds        BFSP        Lost        Won   
    Monday 16th Nov                                                   
    Plumpton 2:20        Court Duty                                           
    Plumpton 2:50        Midnight Glance                                           
    Plumpton 3:20        Cyclop                                           
                                                       
    Tuesday 17th Nov                                                   
                                                       
                                                       
                                    Totals        £0.00        £0.00   
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 08:52
What about Breffniboy in the 1.00  @  Leics or have I misunderstood something?
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 08:58

Nov 15, 2020 -- 8:49PM, the_dak wrote:


I've just been through your first sheet and spotted an interesting pattern( I know this is a laying thread but this could be a good backing system) I looked at the form of all the horses that won a handicap for the first time and then went on to run in a handicap again.................No Regrets

By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 09:01
dak, what you've said sort of backs up what this thread is about. A horse may well be up carrying one penalty for a win but [two? three?]... Someone said in here once that "weight stops trains" and it does, eventually.
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 09:17
Breffniboy in the 13:00 Leic hcp hdl interesting today for me 2/1 or less

Been making hay recently but some of these much fresher and unexposed and on average rating's race is 10lb higher so definitely a notch up. 3rd run in a week back on softer ground it has to prove will be as effective on.

Could be going to the well once too often these conditions against a few that may have plenty more to offer themselves.
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 09:30
As with the dak's observation

A hcp win lto for 1st time into another hcp

This year a profit of around 6% for the backer but a loss for the 5 years previous and a small loss just under 2% for BACKERS since BFSP.

So be wary of short run/long run here.
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 09:35
Ericster an amazing year for 3 hcp wins on the bounce horses in terms of BACKING. I will post the data in a bit.
By:
happysandwich
When: 16 Nov 20 09:38
Ericster,

The above chart was for the_dak’s backing to win system.

Won a Handicap LTO but time before that was NOT a Handicap.

This is week 5 and as far as I can see there are only 2.


Good Morning Striding.


    WEEK 5                                                           
            Horse Name        Position        Odds        BFSP        Lost        Won           
    Sunday 15th Nov                                                           
    Punchestown 1:05        Buildmeupbuttercup        1st        3/1        4.42                        No Bet   
    Punchestown 1:05        Daylight Katie        5th        9/1        12.60                        No Bet   
    Fontwell 12:25  (Novice H.)        Lord Accord        UR        13/8        2.77                £10.00           
    Cheltenham 2:25        Put The Kettle On        1st        7/4        2.73        £17.30                   
    Cheltenham 4:05        Weseekhimhere        3rd        10/11        2.01                £10.00           
                                                               
    Monday 16th Nov                                                           
    Leicester 1:00        Breffniboy                                                   
    Dundalk 3:45        Saltonstall                                                   
                                                               
    Tuesday 17th Nov                                                           
    Southwell 12:20        Ustath                                                   
    Southwell 3:50        Pearl Of Qatar                                                   
    Fakenham 2:03        Limited reserve                                                   
    Lingfield 1:41        Ruby ****                                                   
    Newcastle 7:45        Burrows  Seeside                                                   
                                                               
                            Totals                 £17.30        £20.00           
                                                               
                            Losing bets                 1                   
                            Winning bets                2                   
                            No Bets                2                   
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 09:42
[imng]https://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/stridingedge/large/307ea5ab0dc69a414a7a259b6bbede6c.png?v=107400[/img]
By:
happysandwich
When: 16 Nov 20 09:42
ericster
16 Nov 20 09:58
Joined:
10 Mar 02
| Topic/replies: 2,918 | Blogger: ericster's blog
Nov 15, 2020 -- 9:49PM, the_dak wrote:
I've just been through your first sheet and spotted an interesting pattern( I know this is a laying thread but this could be a good backing system) I looked at the form of all the horses that won a handicap for the first time and then went on to run in a handicap again.................No Regrets


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKSPOUEuqAE
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 09:43
Try that again.

[   This image is no longer available.   ]
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 09:48
BACKERS fully in clover last 2 years with horses going for another win after taking 3hcps on the bounce.

Overall since BFSP only 1.59% for BACKERS though.

IF there were anything in it recently you'd have to conclude that there was more dodgy shenanigans in getting horses handicapped lowly in the first place to be able to run up a sequence.

You won't see such returns continue though on BF even IF the results were significant as too many have access to such information and profits get eroded.
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 09:49
This is all getting a bit confusing, laying hat-trick seekers + novice favourites, backing second-time-outers.ShockedConfused

And to cap all that.....
How long have we been doing this?
The Racing Post is blocking my search for course-stats.
They want me to sign up and sign in.AngryCry
What choice do I have?
I don't want to but I suspect that resistance would be futile.
Fk fk fk.

I'm looking for course stats website.
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 09:59
Have been looking at Breffniboy:

Was going to let it run, don't think it's too harshly treated at the weights,  quick reappearance noted [that'll be three runs in seven days] but Course and going could find him out, I don't see him having it all his own way, and I wouldn't want to oppose K.Bailey here.
Will probably lay it to back [go for a green-out] i/r.

Anyone know bailey's record at leics?
By:
happysandwich
When: 16 Nov 20 10:07
Striding,

I printed out your first attempt from the URL you posted.

(think I’m getting a bit too clever, now)Laugh

Let me get this right – back horses to win that have won 3 Handicaps on the bounce and going for a 4th?
They’re thin on the ground, especially on a Monday.
Flag them up if you spot one.
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 10:07
Doesn't run a great deal there 8-62 since BFSP 8.3 expected winners

3-17 hcp hurdles 2.07 expected
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 10:10
As for Isolate, the hotpot novice, the race is his for the taking. Isn't it?

Dead on his feet at the last in a class4 mdn at Bangor g-s, that WAS after a break of 237 days to be fair.
Then won a c4 novice on g-f at Taunton.

And now? Leicester soft g-s patches?

We shall see eh?Plain
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 10:14

Nov 16, 2020 -- 10:07AM, stridingedge wrote:


Doesn't run a great deal there 8-62 since BFSP 8.3 expected winners3-17 hcp hurdles 2.07 expected


See punts K.Bailey thread.

By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 10:14
Happy they are thin on the ground full stop Laugh

154 this year so far, market reckoned on 31.67 winners, there have been 45 ROI 36.51%, the year before a 70% return for bakers but this was obviously skewed by some big prices as the actual vs expected was only 1.08 (1.45 this year)

I was really just highlighting how dangerous it is to make assumptions without real world data or tyo think short run evidence should be used to make decisions and also nearly always in the long run these systems that are based on simple criteria are not reliable.

We know for example that there is no evidence to suggest that laying horse that won their last 2 races should be blindlylayed. You have to look at the horses as individuals and the opposition they are against.

Pre race is a brutal game!
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 10:15

Nov 16, 2020 -- 10:14AM, stridingedge wrote:


Happy they are thin on the ground full stop 154 this year so far, market reckoned on 31.67 winners, there have been 45 ROI 36.51%, the year before a 70% return for bakers but this was obviously skewed by some big prices as the actual vs expected was only 1.08 (1.45 this year)I was really just highlighting how dangerous it is to make assumptions without real world data or tyo think short run evidence should be used to make decisions and also nearly always in the long run these systems that are based on simple criteria are not reliable.We know for example that there is no evidence to suggest that laying horse that won their last 2 races should be blindlylayed. You have to look at the horses as individuals and the opposition they are against.Pre race is a brutal game!


Absolutely striding, I look for dangers/question marks and I see them with Breffniboy.

By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 10:16
^70% return for bakers Shocked

They needed the dough after all Cry
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 10:20
The only thing Ericster is then the price, I have taken the 2./1 in the comp and you really need to be beating any prices taken as often as possible obviously.

It's already shortened a bit of course Laugh but morning markets are dodgy to read and horse is likely to be popular with the way it's been winning.

In general 2/1 and south in price is what I want with some plausible reasons to oppose.
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 10:29
2.66 now Cry
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 10:36
Striding, if we're talking about Breffniboy here, I've given my views on it [prob talking out my arz] a couple of comments up. I won't say it can't win but ......
Shortening odds sounds good t'me.
By:
stridingedge
When: 16 Nov 20 10:44
Shortening odds are good but IF you played early you should not see it like that. Still plenty of time for market to adjust on this one though.

I've not layed it for cash just a pick in comp. I'm trying to use this lay comp to see if I can get better at laying pre race now comm is 2%.

5 months of evidence will tell me.
By:
ericster
When: 16 Nov 20 11:00
Striding, I'm not going to get into [pricing up horses], I have a limit on the odds that I'll lay, if it's too high I shall try to get it in running, I think I shall be on. Will be interesting to see if money comes for one of the others, might be worth getting the lay on if that happens.

btw, I got out of playing the nags years ago. I'm just here for the ride until the ground dries up or I get sick of losing.
By:
happysandwich
When: 16 Nov 20 11:17
Sod the racing lads.

It’s KARAOKE time.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&ei=OVyyX93LCvaEhbIPpt2e4A8&q=words+to+edith+piaf+no+regrets&oq=no+regrets+piaf+words&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQARgAMgYIABAIEB4yBggAEAgQHjoECAAQRzoGCAAQBxAeOgQIABBDOgYIABAFEB46CAgAEAgQBxAeSgUIBBIBMlDtblj9hwFg9a4BaABwAngAgAFUiAHDApIBATWYAQCgAQGqAQdnd3Mtd2l6yAEIwAEB&sclient=psy-ab

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEmk7BEsliM
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