Also, could be a different kettle of fish for the summer jumps game I think.
Again, we shall see.

Good luck starkeycars,

Nothing for me today.

45 not 05

Taunton 3:45 Peterborough – C5 - C5 – C4 – C4

Have taken a long hard look at peterborough and fwiw, when we talk about these improvers going up in grade, one or two of the others, although not winners are being eased, ever so slightly.

mmmmm.... reckon I shall let this one go.

Below is my Excel chart for Week number 4, so far, finishing Saturday.

At the bottom of it is the P/L for all 4 weeks that I started on Thursday 22nd October.
Showing a profit of 17.87 points overall.

I can easily post the other 3 weeks if anyone wants to see them.
It was lowering the BFSP from 8 to 6 that made all the difference to profit.

These were the rules I applied to all 4 weeks hence the amount of No Bets.

RULES
1.  Lay any horse that is going for a hat trick at odds NO BIGGER than BFSP 6.00
2.  Anything bigger than BFSP 6.00 – NO BET
3.  Two or more horses running in the same race – NO BET
4.  Lay to win a fixed amount e.g. £10

Week 4
	Horse Name	Position	Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won
Sunday 8th Nov
Navan 12:30	Jesse Evans	U.R.	7/2	6.00		£10.00
Navan 1:35	Aforementioned	PU	18/1	20.57			No bet
Navan 2:45	Shopping Around	8th	200/1	399.00			No bet
Stratford 12:50	Innisfree Lad	1st	1/2	1.57	£5.70
Stratford 2:00	Movethechains	8th	50/1	72.79			No bet
Stratford 2:35	Bathiva	2nd	8/11	1.78		£10.00
Sandown 12:40	Espalion	4th	13/2	10.41			No bet
Ffos Las 2:50	Easy Bucks	2nd	Evens	2.10		£10.00
Ffos Las 3:55	Mouseinthehouse	3rd	7/2	4.10		£10.00
Monday 9th Nov
Kempton 12:40	Pink Sheets	1st	85/40	3.14	£21.40
Kempton 2:48	Flashing Glance	6th	100/30	4.50		£10.00
Southwell 5:05  AW	Charlie Fellowes	1st	5/4	2.46	£14.60
Southwell 7:05  AW	Beat The Heat	1st	100/30	4.80	£38.00
Tuesday 10th Nov
Lingfield 1:23	Isla's Dream	11th	18/1	23.63			No bet
Huntingdon 1:45	Motueka	8th	150/1	323.25			No bet
Lingfield 3:23	Robin Gold	3rd	5/2 jf	3.65		£10.00
Newcastle 2:50	Pax Britannica	3rd	5/4 fav	2.51		£10.00
Newcastle 5:55	Conservatoire	2nd	5/4 fav	2.35			No bet
Newcastle 5:55	Imperial Butterfly	3rd	9/2	6.38			No bet
Wednesday 11th Nov
Ayr 1:10	Alaphilippe	1st	Evens	1.99	£9.90
Bangor 3:33	Chirico Vallis	2nd	11/4	4.20		£10.00
Exeter 2:36	Annsam	Fell	18/1	20.00			No bet
Ayr 2:50	Bigirononhiship	2nd	5/1	7.08			No bet
Bangor 3:00	Easy As That	2nd	11/10	2.21		£10.00
Thursday 12th Nov
Sedgefield 2:32	Etoile Du Matin	6th	10/1	17.20			No bet
Ludlow 1:40	Threeunderthrufive	1st	7/4	2.87	£18.70
Friday 13th Nov
Newcastle 12:18	Espoir Moriviere
Newcastle 1:58	Doktor Glaz						No bet
Newcastle 1:58	Crocodile Dundee						No bet
Fairyhouse 12:55	Rudy Catrail						No bet
Fairyhouse 12:55	Clonguile Way						No bet
Cheltenham 3:00	Potters Corner
Cheltenham 3:35	Does He Know
Cheltenham 4:05	Leroy Leroy						No bet
Cheltenham 4:05	The Bees knees						No bet
Cheltenham 4:05	Seaborn						No bet
Dundalk 5:00 (AW)	Leabaland						No bet
Dundalk 5:00 (AW)	Helen De Pourtales						No bet
Wolver 4:45 (AW)	Garth Rockett
Saturday 14th Nov
Lingfield 11:40	Casaruan
Punchestown 11.45	Punitive
Punchestown 12.15	Benruben						No bet
Punchestown 12.15	Pakens Rock						No bet
Punchestown 12.50	Viseoman						No bet
Punchestown 12.50	The Long Mile						No bet
Cheltenham 1:40	Fusil Raffles
Cheltenham 1:40	Zarkareva
Cheltenham 2:15	Simply The Betts
Cheltenham 2:50	Dell'Arca
Cheltenham 3:55	Ishkhara Lady
				Totals	£108.30	£90.00	24
				Losing bets	6
				Winning bets	9
				No Bets	24
	Lost	Won	Profit	Winning bets	Losing bets	No Bets
week 1	£28.90	£140.00	£111.10	14	3	6
week 2	£73.38	£110.00	£36.62	11	4	4
week 3	£40.70	£90.00	£49.30	9	4	10
week 4	£108.30	£90.00	£18.30	24	6	24
Totals	£251.28	£430.00	£178.72	58	17	44
Over all profit	£178.72

Timeform got it right again.
That 7* was a game-changer imo.

Had a problem posting today but my last post above got through.


The Management • November 8, 2020 6:27 PM GMT
I can't understand everybodys fascination with this. If anything this straightforward, simple and obvious showed a profit (apart from some short term swings one way or the other) there would be no bookmakers and no layers on here - and we'd all be sat on a yacht somewhere! I'm not overly interested in past "data" unless it is qualified. The guys that subscribe to data-bases have already (way back on Page 1) trawled the archives (clicked a button!) and confirmed that this wouldn't work.

TM,

I remember seeing two post on here where they did a check on horses going for a hat trick but I can’t find or remember who they were.

Could they, or you, do the same check with BFSP 6.00 and under added in? Thanks

hapsan, I wouldn't care to pass judgement on what you have here, in it's entirety, your just stating the obvious in a roundabout way, so obvious that I've never given it a thought, but it is just one more piece in the jigsaw.
Am I repeating myself?
I'm looking at this and using it as a starting point but b4 I get involved in anything it must satisfy MY criteria [go on, you may scoff, what do I know? fkn plank]. We shall see.
I gave up trying to find winners years ago, this has rekindled my interest in the nags.
Researching selections passes a few minutes and it's a bit of fun.
Am quietly two quidding it and we shall see.

hapsan, on your head be it.

There's very little difference happy from the 8.0 or less it's between 0.5 and 1% for the layers.

As has been mentioned it's not the worst starting point but it shouldn't be some sort of grail in the longer term.

Personally am always looking for horses shorter 5/2 or less and then the usual factors that may make life a lot tougher.

Sometimes they may have won 2 or more in a row but a judgement of both the likelihood of conditions suiting and the strength of opposition ALWAYS are essential to consider.

I don't have lays I like at 5/2 or less each day and I hate it in the comp when I venture into dodgy picks that don't really fit at bigger odds just to post a selection.

Seriously believe there are only 10-15 days a month where I'd have a lay I really fancy.

MY NEXT SELECTION :    Saturday 14 November 2020    20:30 Wolverhampton    Smokey        C6    C6    C5   
                               
     Tuesday Nov 10th           Newcastle 2:50           Pax Britannica       3RD    5-4.        C6           C6           C4   
        Wed Nov 11th           Kempton 7:35           Alminoor       NR                   C4           C4           C3   
        Thurs Nov12th           Ludlow 2:15           Innisfree Lad       NR    NOT QUITE SYSTEM BUT LOST FRIDAY C5 C5 C5  1/1.        C5           C5           C3   
        Thurs Nov12th           Taunton 3:45           Peterborough                  MISTAKE HERE FIRST 2 RACES NOT SAME GRADE 4TH 0/30.        C5           C4           C4  

Thanks for your replies Stride I take them onboard.

I’ve found over the years when you’ve had a lucky run and won a few bob, give it a rest and walk away.
A mate said to me many years ago “Whenever you win, spend it – you’ll always have something to show”.
I’ve always given any winnings to my wife – I find that’s the best way to spend it.
I have no interest in money - it’s just a betting tool.

Went to the Arc last year for the weekend, with my winnings, to celebrate our Diamond wedding anniversary and that’s where we arranged to meet Andrew.

Went out to dinner with him on the Saturday evening in the Latin Quarter and met him again on Sunday at the races. A really lovely man. Exactly as you imagine him on here.

Ericster,

I fully understand what you are saying, caution is the way to go and £2 a lay makes it interesting at the same time.

Betting isn’t about winning - it’s about NOT losing.
When you lose you’re out of the game.

I’m paper trading it up to Christmas - bit like Scrooge if you get my drift.

Starkeycars,

Good luck to you too.

The_dak,
Good luck with yours also.
I’ll find a chart to put them in.

happysandwich13 Nov 20 14:06Joined: 06 May 10 | Topic/replies: 2,224 | Blogger: happysandwich's blog
TM,
I remember seeing two post on here where they did a check on horses going for a hat trick but I can’t find or remember who they were.
Could they, or you, do the same check with BFSP 6.00 and under added in? Thanks

Hi Happy - I'm with striding (and Ericster) on this - just changing the SP filter is merely back-fitting in the hope that applying another filter or in this case just altering the existing one will impact the P&L (in the direction you hope). There is no logic/reason to it. I don't personally believe in "system building" but if you try it - you MUST (imo) have a logic for any filters that you apply. Otherwise you are just juggling factors until they tell you what you wanted to hear. 

As others have said - this is a good basic start point (hatrick seekers) for both picking some winners or some lays but only imo good for picking lays because they are likely to be towards the head of the betting. I'm with striding (not bothered about a hatrick being sought or not) - better just to look at ANY shorter prices and scrutinising why they might not "perform" today (and there are countless angles to explore). The_dak and ericster are on the right lines imo i.e. the filter they have applied (going up in class) at least has some logic to it - but it's still back-fitting (imo).

Please don't get defensive - I am pleased you are having fun and I'm just trying to help. This doesn't interest me enough to get involved (I'm happy just looking at any shorties I think are vulnerable for any reason - regardless of their previous finishing positions) - but if I were going to pursue it - i'd be much more interested in distance won by especially on the flat (relative to distance raced), ease of win, style of win (front run, hold up, etc), going (differences in going), class rise, pace in the race (front runners versus hold up etc - how will the race likely unfold), draw (on the flat), track (straight v bend, left v right handed), weight rise in lbs since first win, previous highest winning mark, claimers (jockey) etc, etc,

As a stand alone just hattrick seekers as the sole criteria is a non-event (as per the feedback from the database guys). My worry with hattrick seekers (form reading 11) is that you will latch onto all progressive horses (the kind that keep on winning) so even if you still want to continue with this - I would look at maybe age and number of lifetime runs (to try to rule out the progressives?). As i said before - for various reasons if you forced me to play/lay blind purely based on last two form figures - i'd be much more interested in 22 than 11.

It's an interesting thread. GL.

Yep, it won.

dhk and the garth horse was and is top rated by timeform, again, not the be all and end all, but I like to look into why they are top-rated. Food for thought, it all goes into the mix.

We should have a dodgy favs fred over the winter Ericster I'm sure a few on here would be interested and would give some good input.

Try and get some in the morning before the late market forms.

stridingedge13 Nov 20 17:04Joined: 14 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 58,734 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
We should have a dodgy favs fred over the winter Ericster I'm sure a few on here would be interested and would give some good input.

Cracking idea - but shame its Winter imo

Me checking times, distance won by, class, going and grade, etc.

At 79 I have a problem going from one room to another and wondering what I came in here for.

When Boris gives me this year's £200 Winter Fuel Allowance I won’t bung it all on the King George like I usually do.

Instead, I’ll use it at 5% (£10) a Lay on here and see how far I get.

^^^^
Who are you?

Starkeycars/Ericster

I certainly won't have one every day but IF I start a fred tomorrow it would be great to have some contributions.

I am all about trying to pick one earlier before the late market kicks in but everyone can do their thing and we can discuss the merits of selections.