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Laying hat trick seekers

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By:
happysandwich
When: 07 Nov 20 15:09
Thans Ebor Grin
By:
happysandwich
When: 07 Nov 20 15:12
^^^^
And i've lost the key on the keyboard - never rains but it pours.Laugh
By:
happysandwich
When: 07 Nov 20 15:12
"K"
By:
happysandwich
When: 07 Nov 20 19:55
Having back to back winners at 6.68 and 6.2 to start the day has finally put it to bed for me.

You can study the data and work out why systems fail for yourselves.

Thought I’d post the profit/Loss for all 3 sheets.

Followed by Sheet 3 results.

    Lay hat trick seekers                Lost        Won   
    Week 1                           
            Totals        £41.75        £190.00   
    Losing bets        4                   
    Winning bets        20                   
    No bets        10                   
                               
    Week 2                           
            Totals        £133.28        £120.00   
    Losing bets        5                   
    Winning bets        13                   
    No bets        11                   
                               
    Week 3                           
            Totals        £201.70        £150.00   
    Losing bets        7                   
    Winning bets        15                   
    No bets        13                   
                               
                               
                    £376.73        £460.00   
                               
            Overall Profit        £83.27           
                               
            Losing bets        16           
            Winning bets        48           


    WEEK 3                                                           
            Horse Name        Position        Bookies Odds        BFSP        Lost        Won           
    Monday 2nd Nov                                                           
    Hereford 3:55        Cotton End        Fell        11/4 fav        3.75                £10.00           
                                                               
    Tuesday 3rd Nov                                                           
    Fairyhouse 1:15  (H)        Rock On Barney        4th        9/4 fav        3.65                £10.00           
    Redcar 2:40   (H)        Song Of The Isles        1st        9/2        6.40        £50.40                   
    Exeter 3:25…(H)        Fortescue        9th        10/1        13.00                        No Bet   
    Redcar 3:40   (H)        Luna Jet        1st        13/8        2.72        £17.20                   
    Newcastle 6:45 (H)        Twisted Dreams        3rd        100/30        4.79                £10.00           
                                                               
    Wednesday 4th Nov                                                           
    Lingfield 1:30 (H)        Lequinto        2nd        4/1        5.50                £10.00           
    Musselburgh 1:50 (H)        Del Duque        11th        4/1        5.51                £10.00           
    Nottingham 2:40  (H)        Main Fact        1st        4/5        1.91        £9.00                   
    Dundalk 3:35  (H)        Crystal Dawn        8th        5/2 fav        3.85                £10.00           
                                                               
    Thursday 5th Nov                                                           
    Newbury 12:20        Tomorrow Mystery        1st        6/5        2.38        £13.80                   
    Newbury 2:30        Fugitives Drift        10th        4/1 fav                        £10.00           
    Newbury 2:30        Present Chief        4th        9/2        6.00                        No Bet   
    Newbury 2:30        Sammylou        3rd        20/1        26.60                        No Bet   
                                                               
    Friday 6th Nov                                                           
    Warwick 1:00        Fred        4th        4/1        4.81                £10.00           
    Warwick 2:10        Follow The Swallow        5th        12/1        16.00                        No Bet   
    Curragh 2:30        Final Endeavour        5th        15/2        13.50                        No Bet   
    Fontwell 2:35        Finnegan's Garden        5th        20/1        29.20                        No Bet   
    Fontwell 2:35        Go Steady        Fell        4/1        6.00                £10.00           
    Curragh 4:10        Pretty Boy Floyd        4th        9/4        3.80                £10.00           
    Dundalk 8:15        Dame Rapide        4th        8/1        10.50                        No Bet   
                                                               
    Saturday 7th Nov                                                           
    Doncaster 12:55        Tomfre        1st        5/1        6.68        £56.80                   
    Doncaster 12:55        Punchbowl Flyer        7th        16/1                                No Bet   
    Doncaster 1:30        Dakota Gold        1st        4/1        6.2        £52.00                   
    Doncaster 1:30        Ostilio        15th        11/2                                No Bet   
    Doncaster 2:05        Freyja        8th        5/1                        £10.00           
    Doncaster 2:05        Salsada        7th        40/1                                No Bet   
    Doncaster 3:15        Eagle Court        15th        16/1                                   
    Aintree 1:35        Mr Scrumpy        10th        4/1                        £10.00           
    Wincanton 1:15        Flic Ou Voyou        1st        1/25                £2.50                   
    Wincanton 1:50        Sunrise Ruby        12th        5/1                        £10.00           
    Wincanton 2:25        Grand Sancy        3rd        4/5                        £10.00           
    Wincanton 2:25        Ga Law        1st        2/1                                No Bet   
    Wincanton 3:35        El Presente        1st        11/1                                No Bet   
    Wincanton 3:35        Kitty's Light        3rd        12/1                                No Bet   
    Chelmsford 7:00        Pope Gregory        4th        4/1        6.43                £10.00           
                                                               
                                    Totals         £201.70        £150.00           
                                                               
                                    Losing bets         7                   
                                    Winning bets        15                   
                                    NO BETS        13                   
By:
happysandwich
When: 07 Nov 20 20:21
Good news – just seen I have £7.56 left in my account of the £100 I put in on 8th October.

I had a total of 40 Lay bets (28 won 12 lost) on sheets 2 and 3 only to win £10 each time, I didn’t bet for real money on week i

That’s all folks !!!
By:
brians
When: 08 Nov 20 10:27
An interesting experiment Happy, thanks for all the hard work posting results.
Maybe the seconditus system may prove better !
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 08 Nov 20 11:30
WD Happysandwich.

You gave it a go and although it didn't come to fruition, you had fun with it.

I'm fully aware of the Hi 5's in the happy household, i'm sure i heard the cheers from here. Laugh

Take a break, look forward to Christmas with loved ones and maybe have another attempt in 2021, albeit with a lower odds limit.

Good luck.
By:
hba
When: 08 Nov 20 17:18
Well done Happysandwich, that was very interesting. Loved the idea that you and Mrs Sandwich were sat together high-fiving as your selections lost.
By:
hulk23
When: 08 Nov 20 17:35
backing hat trick seekers is the way to go then ?
By:
dukeofpuke
When: 08 Nov 20 17:48
I did quite well but only for a year on flat 1990 when i followed the Fineform maximum rating which is similar to this but not quite the same,backed Knight of Mercy 14-1 in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood
By:
The Management
When: 08 Nov 20 18:27
I can't understand everybodys fascination with this. If anything this straightforward, simple and obvious showed a profit (apart from some short term swings one way or the other) there would be no bookmakers and no layers on here - and we'd all be sat on a yacht somewhere! I'm not overly interested in past "data" unless it is qualified. The guys that subscribe to data-bases have already (way back on Page 1) trawled the archives (clicked a button!) and confirmed that this wouldn't work.

You should certainly look at ALL horses that won last time out and/or have won their last two races and that have finished second (be it last time out or both of their previous races). It's nothing to do with whether they actually finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd LTO though - it's because they are likely to be near the top of the market if they - so counting them in or chucking them out of your thinking will be key to making a profit. Counting them all in (backing them all) or counting them all out (laying them all) because of the number 1 or 2 next to their last performance is just sheer madness. Just like horses with a 6th or a 7th Last Time Out. There will be context behind that number - and some will want backing and some will want laying!

There are countless things that could make this worthwhile - a handful of which are:

How much have they gone up in the weights?
How long ago was the last race?
Are they coming out again quickly - before the rise kicks in?
Are they still below a "previous "winning mark"?
Were they claimer ridden LTO? - are they claimer ridden today? - does the claimed allowance negate the weight rise?
What class of race did they win? - what class of race is today?
Is the winning jockey aboard (LTO) at the course today? is he on it again? - if not - why not?
Going - same or different? - including surface if All Weather - poltrack, fibresand, tapeta, etc.
Distance - same or different as when winning last time out?
Course - is it the same/similar or completely contrasting? Left Handed/Right Handed, Straight/Turning, Sharp/Easy etc.
Was the Draw (flat racing) a factor LTO - is it a factor today?
Anything new? - Gelded, Headgear, Wind-Op, etc, etc, etc.

The list goes on and on...... most of it (though not all) can be bundled together under the heading - "form".
Even if you think you have found something simple that works (point and click) - the chances are if it's this simple - that you have just found a short term trend. Everything deviates from the norm on its way to averaging out. You can't stick something this simple into a week of results and decide to lay them all (because a couple didn't win) or back them all (because a couple did win).

Glad you had fun. GL.
By:
happysandwich
When: 08 Nov 20 20:50
The Management,

Could you run these 4 past your above criteria, please?
I'm pushed for time.

Kempton 12:40 Pink Sheets
Kempton 2:48 Flashing Glance
Southwell 5:05 Charlie Fellowes
Southwell 7:05 Beat The Heat

Brians,

Thanks, glad it gave a few “food for thought”.

Hulk23,

backing hat trick seekers is the way to go then ?


Maybe, but not on Saturday’s.Laugh

Duke,

Knight of Mercy 14-1 in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood

That would have been over the BFSP 8.00 limit, and these are Lay bets.

hba,

We'll knock it on the head for now and wait until we get Boris's Winter Fuel Allowance.


That'll warm the cockles of our OAP hearts.LaughLaugh
By:
the_dak
When: 08 Nov 20 21:00
My last comment on this promise the way i’m going forward is to select those that ran twice in the same grade then went up in grade on third run but the maximum is G3 LAYING BELOW 7/1
Damiens Dilemma        PU        100/30       22/10/2020 15:25    C4    C4    C3
Conscious            8th           5/1       22/10/2020 19:00    C5     C5     C4
Toronado Queen            12th           5/1       22/10/2020 19:00    C5     C5     C4
Colonel Whitehead            3rd           9/1       23/10/2020 16:35    C4    C4    C3
Sassoon            9th           16/5       23/10/2020 20:30    C6    C6    C5
Kendergarten Kop            4th           14/1       24/10/2020 17:45    C6    C6    C5
Rogue Tide           4th           6/1    26/10/2020 18:00    C6    C6    C5
Knight Commander        PU           4/1 jt/f       28/10/2020 13:40    C5     C5     C4
Flying West           2nd           3/1 fav       28/10/2020 13:15    C5     C5     C4
Exalted Angel           2nd           10/11 fav       29/10/2020 18:15    C4    C4    C3
Whitehaven           1st           11/10       30/10/2020 14:55    C6    C6    C4
Waters Edge           4th           11/5       30/10/2020 15:30    C4    C4    C3
Lots Of Luck           2nd           100/30       01/11/2020 14:22    C5     C5     C4
Dallas Cowboy           7th           22/1       01/11/2020 14:22    C5     C5     C4
Raecius Felix    PU    7/1.    07/11/2020 13:42    C4    C4    C3
Espalion        4th       13/2.    08/11/2020 12:40    C4    C4    C3
Beat The Heat              09/11/2020 19:05    C6    C6    C5
                       
BEAT THE HEAT RUNS TOMORROW
By:
the_dak
When: 08 Nov 20 21:01
C3 HANDICAP I MEANT
By:
happysandwich
When: 08 Nov 20 22:23
The_dak,

You keep commenting,  I wish more would post useful stuff like yours.
Don’t know how I missed this off my Sheet above.
Kelso 1: 42 Raecius Felix PU 7/1

I’m spending far too much time on the computer with these charts and stuff, I’m going to cut back from on.
By:
happysandwich
When: 09 Nov 20 09:55
The_dak,

This is your data put into a Spreadsheet.
If you highlight the data in it you can paste it into your own Excel sheet.
Just widen the Date & Horse  columns to get the data in them to fit.

    Date        Horse        Finish        SP        Grade        Grade        Grade   
                                                       
    22 October 2020        Damiens Dilemma         PU        100/30        C4        C4        C3   
    22 October 2020        Conscious        8th        5/1        C5        C5        C4   
    22 October 2020        Toronado Queen        12th        5/1        C5        C5        C4   
    23 October 2020        Colonel Whitehead         3rd        9/1        C4        C4        C3   
    23 October 2020        Sassoon        9th        16/5        C6        C6        C5   
    24 October 2020        Kendergarten Kop        4th        14/1        C6        C6        C5   
    26 October 2020        Rogue Tide         4th        6/1        C6        C6        C5   
    28 October 2020        Knight Commander        PU        4/1 jt/f        C5        C5        C4   
    28 October 2020        Flying West        2nd        3/1 fav        C5        C5        C4   
    29 October 2020        Exalted Angel         2nd        10/11 fav        C4        C4        C3   
    30 October 2020        Whitehaven        1st        11/10        C6        C6        C4   
    30 October 2020        Waters Edge        4th        11/5        C4        C4        C3   
    1 November 2020        Lots Of Luck        2nd        100/30        C5        C5        C4   
    1 November 2020        Dallas Cowboy        7th        22/1        C5        C5        C4   
    7 November 2020        Raecius Felix         PU        7/1        C4        C4        C3   
    8 November 2020        Espalion        4th        13/2        C4        C4        C3   
    9 November 2020        Beat The Heat                                           
                                                       
By:
ericster
When: 09 Nov 20 11:29

Nov 8, 2020 -- 6:27PM, The Management wrote:


I can't understand everybodys fascination with this. If anything this straightforward, simple and obvious showed a profit (apart from some short term swings one way or the other) there would be no bookmakers and no layers on here - and we'd all be sat on a yacht somewhere! I'm not overly interested in past "data" unless it is qualified. The guys that subscribe to data-bases have already (way back on Page 1) trawled the archives (clicked a button!) and confirmed that this wouldn't work.You should certainly look at ALL horses that won last time out and/or have won their last two races and that have finished second (be it last time out or both of their previous races). It's nothing to do with whether they actually finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd LTO though - it's because they are likely to be near the top of the market if they - so counting them in or chucking them out of your thinking will be key to making a profit. Counting them all in (backing them all) or counting them all out (laying them all) because of the number 1 or 2 next to their last performance is just sheer madness. Just like horses with a 6th or a 7th Last Time Out. There will be context behind that number - and some will want backing and some will want laying!There are countless things that could make this worthwhile - a handful of which are:How much have they gone up in the weights?How long ago was the last race?Are they coming out again quickly - before the rise kicks in?Are they still below a "previous "winning mark"?Were they claimer ridden LTO? - are they claimer ridden today? - does the claimed allowance negate the weight rise?What class of race did they win? - what class of race is today?Is the winning jockey aboard (LTO) at the course today? is he on it again? - if not - why not?Going - same or different? - including surface if All Weather - poltrack, fibresand, tapeta, etc.Distance - same or different as when winning last time out?Course - is it the same/similar or completely contrasting? Left Handed/Right Handed, Straight/Turning, Sharp/Easy etc. Was the Draw (flat racing) a factor LTO - is it a factor today?Anything new? - Gelded, Headgear, Wind-Op, etc, etc, etc.The list goes on and on...... most of it (though not all) can be bundled together under the heading - "form".Even if you think you have found something simple that works (point and click) - the chances are if it's this simple - that you have just found a short term trend. Everything deviates from the norm on its way to averaging out. You can't stick something this simple into a week of results and decide to lay them all (because a couple didn't win) or back them all (because a couple did win).Glad you had fun. GL.


As you say Management,"the list is endless", the h/c mark,  amount of lead in the saddle-cloth, are just two pieces in the puzzle.

I used to work with a bloke who would say "when in doubt back number 7." You wouldn't believe the winners he got from that, doesn't take a great imagination to reason how/why. Was he in profit over time ? Probably not, but he had fun with it.

By:
The Management
When: 09 Nov 20 12:01
ericster - indeed - number 7 is as good as any other number. More logically perhaps number 8's are over-bet (by Asians), maybe number 13's are under-bet - the bottom line is - it's 2020 - so if you are that way inclined - you can check all these things out - going back for years at the click of a button. Sometimes some kind soul on here will do it for you (as they did here on this thread - at the beginning).

I like bay geldings with consecutive letter A's in their names wearing a first time hood, that run at courses beginning with the letter H or N on the third Thursday of the month. It shows a profit - but I can't explain why. Should I back them? If it had showed a loss (which I also wouldn't be able to explain) should I lay them?

I am delighted that everybody has had some fun - but for a bit of fun, there seems to be a lot of time being invested along with a lot of spreadsheets. If you are going to invest that much time, I just thought a bit of help with the application a some imagination and logic might be beneficial.

The_dak has applied one tiny aspect of imagination/logic and already it is ten times more interesting and (short term) he has turned a disaster into a triumph.

Have fun? Yes!
Make a few quid at the same time? Why not!
By:
Davros
When: 09 Nov 20 12:07
The Management - I think the thread's main insight is how much more popular fallacies such as betting systems are over productive concepts.  I bet if you posted a thread about something that might help further knowledge and profitability (but required some effort) you'd get about 4 respondents.  That's not to denigrate the thread itself - people should indeed get their entertainment wherever and whenever they can and none is more worthy than any other.  But it should be done with the understanding that back-fitting systems is essentially a fool's errand.
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 09 Nov 20 12:11
As it happens, you would have made a very small profit laying number 7 over the past 10 years.

Same for number 13.

Probably a combination of happenstance and "lucky" 7 being overbet with the former.

As for 13, again happenstance and maybe a bit of reverse logic?
By:
The Management
When: 09 Nov 20 12:28
Davros - I couldn't agree more with your post. All spot on.

I guess my point is - if you are going to waste your time (or get your entertainment) from back-fitting systems:

1) At least apply some logic. Why are you applying this filter or that filter to your selections???
2) Do it the easy way - click a button.
By:
ericster
When: 09 Nov 20 12:47
Management, my take on one person's apparent support of number seven was thus, consider that horse's position in the race-sheet for a moment if you will:

In a list of maybe ten or twelve, he's probably not going to be humping twelve stone, but at number seven, he's up there, might just have something about him, on the rise? Or maybe, after being hammered by the handicapper is slowly slipping down the weights, whatever.
Anyway, I always tried to put a bit of effort in, favoured tracks that were deemed difficult, awkward etc. The Towcesters and the Carlisles. And I never got to give up the day-job. Tells you all you need to know about me.
Some horses will run up a sequence and some will find a hike in the weights a big ask. Whatever. A talking point if nothing else.
By:
ericster
When: 09 Nov 20 12:49
You're obviously better at it than I am so I'm not looking for an argument but I always enjoy such debate.
By:
The Management
When: 09 Nov 20 12:54
I'm not looking for an argument either ericster - I was trying to stimulate that debate or at least move it to a place of interest.
By:
ericster
When: 09 Nov 20 12:59
That's good to know Management and I appreciate your posting but some people, y'know?
I'm cool with disagreement and if I'm talking horlicks please feel free to point that out.
By:
ericster
When: 09 Nov 20 13:00
By the way, I think a hat-trick-seeker just got it's hat-trick.Mischief
By:
happysandwich
When: 09 Nov 20 13:19
Would I be right in thinking that these 2 on Tuesday fit The_dak’s criteria?

Up in class going for their 3rd win on the bounce.

Huntingdon 1:45 Motueka  C4 C4 C3
Lingfield 3:23 Robin Gold  C5  C4  C3
By:
the_dak
When: 09 Nov 20 17:18
Motueka both wins were not handicaps (novice hurdle)
and Robin Gold although were handicaps I prefer that the first two wins were in the same grade this is C5  C4  C3 so I will wait for another qualifier.
By:
happysandwich
When: 09 Nov 20 17:52
Cheers Dak,

Any lays you post I'll keeep a record in the above chart.
By:
the_dak
When: 09 Nov 20 18:18
Beat The Heat    19:05 SOUTHWELL    MONDAY
Pax Britannica    14:50 NEWCASTLE     TUESDAY
Alminoor    19:35 KEMPTON    WEDNESDAY
Innisfree Lad    14:15 LUDLOW    THURSDAY
Peterborough    15:45 TAUNTON     THURSDAY
By:
happysandwich
When: 09 Nov 20 19:49
Sods law first selection Beat The Heat winning, now need 3.3 losers to break even.
Early days yet.

Think this is right Dak :-

    Date        Track        Horse        Finish        SP        Grade        Grade        Grade   
                                                               
    22 October 2020                Damiens Dilemma         PU        100/30        C4        C4        C3   
    22 October 2020                Conscious        8th        5/1        C5        C5        C4   
    22 October 2020                Toronado Queen        12th        5/1        C5        C5        C4   
    23 October 2020                Colonel Whitehead         3rd        9/1        C4        C4        C3   
    23 October 2020                Sassoon        9th        16/5        C6        C6        C5   
    24 October 2020                Kendergarten Kop        4th        14/1        C6        C6        C5   
    26 October 2020                Rogue Tide         4th        6/1        C6        C6        C5   
    28 October 2020                Knight Commander        PU        4/1 jt/f        C5        C5        C4   
    28 October 2020                Flying West        2nd        3/1 fav        C5        C5        C4   
    29 October 2020                Exalted Angel         2nd        10/11 fav        C4        C4        C3   
    30 October 2020                Whitehaven        1st        11/10        C6        C6        C4   
    30 October 2020                Waters Edge        4th        11/5        C4        C4        C3   
    1 November 2020                Lots Of Luck        2nd        100/30        C5        C5        C4   
    1 November 2020                Dallas Cowboy        7th        22/1        C5        C5        C4   
    7 November 2020                Raecius Felix         PU        7/1        C4        C4        C3   
    8 November 2020                Espalion        4th        13/2        C4        C4        C3   
    Monday Nov 9th        Southwell 7:05        Beat The Heat        1st        100/30        C6         C6        C5   
    Tuesday Nov 10th        Newcastle 2:50        Pax Britannica                        C6        C6        C4   
    Wed Nov 11th        Kempton 7:35        Alminoor                        C4        C4        C3   
    Thurs Nov12th        Ludlow 2:15        Innisfree Lad                        C5        C5        C3   
    Thurs Nov12th        Taunton 3:45        Peterborough                        C5        C4        C4   
                                                               
By:
ericster
When: 09 Nov 20 20:17
Would be interested to see separate tables for flat and jumps hapsan.
Just a thought, that's all.
I'm only interested in jumps handicaps  and exposed handicappers, if I stay with this for a while, might separate hdls from chs. No, spotting hat-trick seeking isn't the be all and end all but it might just flag up  a few layable short prices. we shall see eh?
Watching with interest and enjoying the sensible comments being posted here.
By:
ericster
When: 09 Nov 20 20:18
Have just started a few records of my own.
By:
dukeofpuke
When: 09 Nov 20 20:43
Duke,

Knight of Mercy 14-1 in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood

That would have been over the BFSP 8.00 limit, and these are Lay bets.

You've missed my point i was backing these way before you could lay on exchanges
By:
glentoby
When: 09 Nov 20 21:11
Stawk home syndrome? Seems obvious imvho,the same entities will appear to deny ALL? They know,I know,YEW GNAW!!! Unless you wish a Cope and haggen to follow? My net is bulging from previous,all welcome!!!!WinkWink
By:
ericster
When: 10 Nov 20 20:28
Will be taking a good look at chirico vallis at bangor tmorra. Ought to run well I suppose, but might be a cheap enough lay in running.
And that breffniboy is most certainly NOT a lay I reckon. Just looked at this one out of curiosity.

Any thoughts you guys?
By:
elise
When: 11 Nov 20 17:15
not sure if you follow french racing but genmoss has just gone 10 wins from 10 starts
By:
happysandwich
When: 11 Nov 20 18:24
Right listen up lads, I’ve got a new system,

Horses that have won ten on the bounce, Lay them to lose next time out.

Bloke told me about this years ago and I’ve been waiting ever since for one to come along.

Laugh
By:
ericster
When: 11 Nov 20 19:26

Nov 8, 2020 -- 9:00PM, the_dak wrote:


My last comment on this promise the way i’m going forward is to select those that ran twice in the same grade then went up in grade on third run but the maximum is G3 LAYING BELOW 7/1Damiens Dilemma

By:
ericster
When: 11 Nov 20 19:34
Management has drawn my attention to this dak and yes, it does make a lot of sense.
Not sure that I'd want to apply this to flat though, I shall stick with the jumps.
Also, I did hesitate with that one today, won c3 0-130.. c3 0-135 I think, in a class2 today and was fully entitled to give the the backers a run for their money. I've only just seen the winning distance.Shocked
I don't expect to have many plays with this but I don't mind checking a few out every day. It passes a few minutes.
We shall see eh?
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