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Laying hat trick seekers

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By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 00:03

the_dak

That's really interesting, thanks

Could you or someone go though Tuesday & Wednesday selections to see if any fall into your Win or Lay criteria?
Cut & paste them with a “W” or “L” after the horses name if they do. Or like I've just done on a couple.
It's too time consuming for me, I'm old and got enough on my plate.

Tuesday 3rd Nov
Fairyhouse 1:15 Rock On Barney
Redcar 2:40 Song Of The Isles c5 – c5 tomorrow c3
Exeter 3:25 Fortescue
Redcar 3:40 Luna Jet
Redcar 3:40 Eagle Court c4 – c4 tomorrow c3
Newcastle 6:45 Twisted Dreams

Wednesday 4th Nov
Musselburgh 12:50 Stormin Norman
Musselburgh 2:20 Del Duque
Lingfield 2:00 Lequinto
Lingfield 3:00 Good Effort
Lingfield 4:00 Fame N Fortune
Nottingham 2:40 Main Fact
Dundalk 2:05 Crystal Dawn
Dundalk 3:35 Crystal Dawn
Kempton 6:20 Premier Power

Jmdc,

Could you do the same on the above using your criteria? Please.

By:

irishone When: 03 Nov 20 06:14

I really dont see the point of this thread.
If you have a system that works dont tell the world.
Its just a matter of time before your prices fall or rise and kill the golden goose.
Think about what your life is all about ?
Are you really just looking for kudos from anonymous people on a gambling forum ?
Is it really fun putting people onto a treadmill which leads to a blackhole ?
Well done for finding a system that works , maybe ..... Not for long !

By:

jmdc When: 03 Nov 20 08:58

I only play NH happy and the only qualifier on your list is Rock On
Barney at Fairyhouse. Unfortunately, I no longer bet in Irish handicaps because of the current skulduggery amongst certain trainers over there, who pull their horses until they reach a ridiculously low mark, and then a hat-trick is more easily attainable. I have burnt my fingers too many times doing this. The nearest comparison to them in British racing is Jonjo O’Neill, who I find just about manageable.

Fortescue only has 8lb extra to carry.

Stormin Norman is mixing Flat and NH which would be unworkable, because the ORs bear no relation to one another.

Del Duque only has 6lb extra to carry.

As you can see, there are not many selections which fit my criteria, and as I said before, this comprises only a small part of my betting strategy.

HTH

By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 09:10

I really dont see the point of this thread.

Most of the posters, apart from you, enjoy reading & exchanging views on a system with a bit of fun banter thrown in.

If you have a system that works dont tell the world.

If anyone thinks this is a system that works and makes money – more fool them.

Its just a matter of time before your prices fall or rise and kill the golden goose.

Do you really think my £10 notes will move the market? Wow.

Think about what your life is all about ?

I’m perfectly happy with my life and it certainly isn’t all about gambling.

Are you really just looking for kudos from anonymous people on a gambling forum ?

NO, I’ve got better things to do in my life.

Is it really fun putting people onto a treadmill which leads to a blackhole ?

All my readers can choose to get off the treadmill anytime they want.

Well done for finding a system that works , maybe ..... Not for long !

Thank you very much, do you think it could? Long term I mean.

Have you compared it to some of the other threads

No, because most of them are written by what I regard as “betting shop fodder”.

Now p1ss off.

By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 09:13

^^^^
That was for the Irish one.

By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 09:56

Thanks jmdc,

Your comments for the selections that meet your criteria are helpful, keep it up.

Putting the sentence from your 02 Nov 20 22:44 post into a Word doc is handy for reference.
Along with the_dak’s two bits of advice.

“HS, I work a similar system to you within my betting. I don’t bet on the flat, but I do find that hat-trick seekers in NH handicaps carrying a 9lb+ uplift from their previous OR do pay dividends, and usually at nice juicy layable prices.”

1. I looked at the horses in your system that were running in a better class third race and came up with this:

2. And i think this next part looks a good backing system where the first race win of the two wins was a novice or maiden

By:

Latalomne When: 03 Nov 20 10:18

FWIW, without any filtering at all, between 2016 and Sunday, laying all hat-trick seekers (UK & IRE, flat, AW and jumps all lumped together) would have cost you money before commission (at 2% - which for most of us was a pipe dream up until last year). And backing them would have won you money before commission (the longest price winner accounting for 200% of that profit!) but would have lost you money after it.

By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 10:28

Thanks Latalomne,

That’s cheered me up.

These are todays runners, Eagle Court is a NR.
(H) donates Handicap race.

Tuesday 3rd Nov
Fairyhouse 1:15 (H)	Rock On Barney
Redcar 2:40 (H)	Song Of The Isles
Exeter 3:25…(H)	Fortescue
Redcar 3:40 (H)	Luna Jet
Newcastle 6:45 (H)	Twisted Dreams

By:

irishone When: 03 Nov 20 10:30

Yes your ten quid will definitely move the market. Might be miniscule ,but it will move the market.
If your system is highly successful
Your prices will go
It will become a loss maker.
over time that is exactly what happens to 99% of systems !
You have no staking plan that reacts to price or losses.
That may have helped.

No one is being rude to you
I wish you the best of luck !

But i have to ask again ..what is your motive ?

By:

ericster When: 03 Nov 20 10:48

Nov 3, 2020 -- 8:58AM, jmdc wrote:

I only play NH happy and the only qualifier on your list is Rock OnBarney at Fairyhouse. Unfortunately, I no longer bet in Irish handicaps because of the current skulduggery amongst certain trainers over there, who pull their horses until they reach a ridiculously low mark, and then a hat-trick is more easily attainable.

By:

ericster When: 03 Nov 20 10:51

Interesting post jmdc, would grade of races and class of opposition be a factor also or am I over-thinking this.
Btw, I like that you seem very selective.
Wheat from the chaff.

By:

ericster When: 03 Nov 20 10:56

Also, I like inplay, even if a selection is beyond your odds-limit, you can always throw in a lay-offer, they might just shorten a bit in running.
Might just get myself a racing post on Saturday and see what gives.

By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 11:16

Irishone,

Please accept my apologies for taking your previous post the wrong way then.

I have no motive, I put £100 into my Betfair account on 28th Oct. and I have £105.80 left at this moment in time. If it comes unstuck, as it obviously will, I’ll just stop doing it having had a couple of weeks fun betting.

I’m certainly not a compulsive gambler and the money is really not important to me.
Believe it or not I could not have another bet until Boxing Day (which Andrew will confirm).

Very few on here could do that.

By:

ericster When: 03 Nov 20 13:25

Nov 3, 2020 -- 8:58AM, jmdc wrote:

I only play NH happy and the only qualifier on your list is Rock OnBarney at Fairyhouse. Unfortunately, I no longer bet in Irish handicaps because of the current skulduggery amongst certain trainers over there, who pull their horses until they reach a ridiculously low mark, and then a hat-trick is more easily attainable.

By:

ericster When: 03 Nov 20 13:26

Good call jmdc, and a cheap lay to boot, well done.

By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 13:27

I backed it but forgot to get the BFSP in the excitement, can someone post it.

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Rock On Barney
3.65
£10.00
£26.50
Ref: 215714811218 Matched: 13:15 03-Nov-20

By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 19:58

Not a good day with 2 losers on the bounce.
And only two races Wednesday.

Does anyone want to take over from me?

It’s getting a bit much for me and I’m spending far too much time on the computer.

This is how you do the chart in Excel so you can post it on here.

1. Make columns A, C, E, G, L, K, M, O and Q width 1.50 (0.49 centimeters).

2. Fill just those columns down to the bottom of the data with this :-

copy & paste that one if your not sure what key that is that you press twice.

3. Fill columns B, D, F, H, J, L, N and P with the data.

4. Highlight from A:1 down to the bottom right hand corner of your data.
Basically copy & paste

To test whether it works, go to Labs Chat on the left and post it on any of the old threads on there.
Then paste the copied sheet there in the “Post Your Reply Box” and press post reply.

Ps
You can copy the data on the sheet below to try it out.
Good luck

The_dak,

You may find it useful for the data you posted yesterday.

WEEK 3
	Horse Name	Position	Bookies Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won
Monday 2nd Nov
Hereford 3:55	Cotton End	Fell	11/4 fav	3.75		£10.00

Tuesday 3rd Nov
Fairyhouse 1:15 (H)	Rock On Barney	4th	9/4 fav	3.65		£10.00
Redcar 2:40 (H)	Song Of The Isles	1st	9/2	6.40	£50.40
Exeter 3:25…(H)	Fortescue	9th	10/1	13.00			No Bet
Redcar 3:40 (H)	Luna Jet	1st	13/8	2.72	£17.20
Newcastle 6:45 (H)	Twisted Dreams	3rd	100/30	4.79		£10.00

Wednesday 4th Nov
Nottingham 2:40 (H)	Main Fact
Dundalk 3:35 (H)	Crystal Dawn

Thursday 5th Nov
Thurles 12:15	Exit To The West
Newbury 12:55	Tomorrow Mystery
Newbury 2:30	Pink Sheets
Newbury 3:05	Fugitives Drift
Newbury 3:05	Sunrise Ruby
Newbury 3:05	Present Chief
Newbury 3:05	Dreal Deal
Newbury 3:05	Sammylou
Kempton 6:00	Pope Gregory

Friday 6th Nov
Warwick 1:35	Fred
Warwick 2:45	Follow The Swallow
Warwick 3:20	Crocodile Dundee
Fontwell 2:35	Finnegan's Garden
Fontwell 2:35	Go Steady
Hexham 2:55	Espoir Morivere
Hexham 4:00	Tupelo Mississippi










				Totals	£67.60	£30.00

				Losing bets	2
				Winning bets	3
				NO BETS	1

By:

happysandwich When: 03 Nov 20 20:10

2. Fill just those columns down to the bottom of the data with this :- ||

On a Mac I don't know what the key name is so just cut& paste those 2 line above after :-

By:

SOULDANCER When: 04 Nov 20 06:26

Irishone.

Why do you post on a gambling forum?

What's your motive?

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 09:00

There's no denying it, my interest is well and truly piqued, so because of that, damn you hapsan, and because I rarely play, I'm taking a long hard look at the this. Not necessarily your method in it's entirety. A variation on a theme.

So, purely as a matter of interest, certainly not financial interest, and going with those who hold the view that "weight stops trains" eventually, I shall be looking to see how MILLIE OF MAYO and THE NAVIGATOR go at musselburgh today.

Has the handicapper got a hold of them?
The odds shouldn't be too big I think.
We shall see.

I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THAT I WON'T BE GETTING INVOLVED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED. Just looking.

And my observation is purely [casual and at a glance] so please, feel free, to rip those two selections to bits, I'd love to see what the experts think. And why.

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 09:03

MY MOTIVE ?

YOU TELL ME WHAT'S WRONG WITH HOW I SEE WHAT I SEE. IF I'M TALKING CARP TELL ME AND SAVE ME THE EXPENSE OF LEARNING THE HARD WAY.

regards, the ster.

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 09:06

Having said that, it would be a long time before I parted with any of my hard earned, regardless of how it might look. It's just another [false dawn], isn't it?

Been there, done that.

By:

happysandwich When: 04 Nov 20 12:19

Good morning Miners

Pick up yer pick’s an lets get to work.

Did anyone attempt to do a postable chart in Excel?

Ericster,

Has the handicapper got a hold of them?

That’s similar to my “can they win 3 on the bounce?”
Finding selections with your criteria is too complicated for me (age) but if you put them up we can just paper trade them.

Weight Stops Trains
	Horse Name	Position	Bookies Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won
Wednesday 4th Nov
Musselburgh 1:50 (H)	Millie Of Mayo
Musselburgh 3:20 (H)	The Navigator

Thursday 5th Nov



Friday 6th Nov




				Totals	£0.00	£0.00

				Losing bets	0
				Winning bets	0
				NO BETS	0

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 12:26

hapsan,
if you would like to put them into some sort of table I don't mind.
Like I said, haven't really researched the opposition, this is off the cuff but I tell you what, for what my opinion is worth, NOT A LOT, I wouldn't be lumping on that ratface nag either.
I'd just like to float early thoughts on a couple of possible lays and get some discussion going.

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 12:31

Hapsan,
I'm no expert but basically, if a horse wins a handicap he gets a penalty, how much depends on value/class of race.
I think that's how it works, EXPERTS! please.
So, it carries more weight, they put a claimer up, if they hadn't already, or he goes up in class.
Either way, the handicapper usually kills them, eventually.

By:

happysandwich When: 04 Nov 20 12:44

Ericster,

“I wouldn't be lumping on that ratface nag either.”

Have a look on Striding’s Lay thread, Andrew could be causing a bit of trouble on there with it too.

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 13:00

The Navigator might be forgiven for his 5th last time out, he lost a shoe apparently, but I think this could be a big ask.

And again hapsan, if/when they hit that wall, they still might be layable in future races in-running if not s/p.

By:

happysandwich When: 04 Nov 20 13:17

While I was looking at ericsters Millie Of Mayo
I noticed I’ve missed one – I’ll put it on the sheet.

Musselburgh 1:50 Del Duque

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 13:35

hapsan, if I'd got to back one I'd go for Del Duque.
I looked for horses that had won three in a row.

I can only repeat........... I know nothing about this game.

By:

The Management When: 04 Nov 20 13:41

Happy - I've not been following closely - but wasn't Lequinto a lay at 4/1 (finished 2nd) in the 13:30 at Lingfield?

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 13:50

Nov 4, 2020 -- 1:35PM, ericster wrote:

hapsan, if I'd got to back one I'd go for Del Duque.I looked for horses that had won three in a row. I can only repeat........... I know nothing about this game.

seems to be where the late money is.

By:

happysandwich When: 04 Nov 20 14:16

The Management,

Yes Lequinto does meet my criteria and is another one I missed.

Seriously, I need proof readers to help me.

Ericster,

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Del Duque
5.5
£10.00
£45.00

Just got on

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 14:49

hapsan, I fancied that one to win.
Best stick to looking for losers eh?

Don't know if Millie would have been short enough i/r to lay.

By:

happysandwich When: 04 Nov 20 15:01

ericster,

Look what I just posted on Andrews thread.

He can confirm I didn't Lay it.

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 15:26

hapsan,
I KNOW YOU DIDN'T BACK IT.
I meant that I should stick to picking losers.
I FANCIED IT TO WIN.

By:

happysandwich When: 04 Nov 20 15:40

Made a mess of that race and ended up Laying it twice and made and made an extra £2.

But who cares

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Crystal Dawn
3.85
£2.00
£5.70
Ref: 215815118065 Matched: 15:35 04-Nov-20
Crystal Dawn
4
£0.19
£0.57
Ref: 215815171116 Matched: 15:36 04-Nov-20
Crystal Dawn
4
£9.81
£29.43
Ref: 215815171116 Matched: 15:36 04-Nov-20

By:

happysandwich When: 04 Nov 20 15:52

Can someone give me the BFSP on Lingfield 1:30 (H) Lequinto 2nd, please.

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 16:02

So how's your theory doing hapsan?

By:

happysandwich When: 04 Nov 20 16:09

Not as good as your 100%

Weight Stops Trains
	Horse Name	Position	Bookies Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won
Wednesday 4th Nov
Musselburgh 1:50 (H)	Millie Of Mayo	7th	9/2	5.82		£10.00
Musselburgh 3:20 (H)	The Navigator	8th	2/1 fav	3.28		£10.00

Thursday 5th Nov



Friday 6th Nov




				Totals	£0.00	£20.00

				Losing bets	0
				Winning bets	2
				NO BETS	0

By:

ericster When: 04 Nov 20 16:11

We shall see hapsan, we shall see.