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Laying hat trick seekers

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Replies: 859
By:
happysandwich
When: 29 Oct 20 01:09
Marcus Rashford scored a hat trick for Manchester United last night.

Lucky he didn’t four legs or I would have lost money on him. Laugh
By:
happysandwich
When: 29 Oct 20 11:33
Thought I would put up the results from my other thread Thursday 22nd Oct.
to Tuesday 27th Oct. for anybody who missed them.

The rule about 2 selections in the same race NO BET was if you get a 5/7 runner race with 2 hot favs it's too risky.

I’ll be pleased if I’ve still got the £100 starting bank I deposited 28th Oct. come Sunday.

Good luck to anyone who’s following me in.

            Horse Name        Position        Odds        Lost        Won           
                                                       
    Thursday 22nd Oct                                                   
    Carlisle 2:50         No Regrets         2nd        2/1                £10.00           
    Carlisle 3:25         Damiens Dilemma         PU        100/30                £10.00           
    Lingfield 2:22         Huntsmans Jag         2nd        9/4                £10.00           
    Wolverhampton 5:10         Frow         1st        4/7        £5.72                   
    Lingfield 5:15         Operatic Import         8th        9/2                £10.00           
    Chelmsford 7:00         Conscious         8th        5/1                £10.00           
    Chelmsford 7:00         Toronado Queen         12th        5/1                £10.00           
                                                       
    Friday 23rd Oct                                                   
    Cheltenham 3:00         Captain Tom Cat         1st        15/2                        No Bet   
    Doncaster 3:15         Ocean Wind         1st        13/8        £16.25                   
    Doncaster 3:15         Opera Gift         2nd        6/5                £10.00           
    Cheltenham 3:35         Beat The Judge         3rd        4/1                £10.00           
    Newbury 4:35         Colonel Whitehead         3rd        9/1                        No Bet   
    Dundalk 5:10         Jackmel         9th        5/1                £10.00           
    Newcastle 8:30         Sassoon         9th        16/5                £10.00           
                                                       
    Saturday 24th Oct                                                   
    Newbury 2:25         Imperium Blue         N.R.                                   
    Cheltenham 3:15         Neville’s Cross         6th        100/30                £10.00           
    Cheltenham 3:15         Lock’s Corner         2nd        20/1                        No Bet   
    Doncaster 3:30        Sir Maxi         2nd        9/4                £10.00           
    Doncaster 4:40         Eric Bloch         3rd        5/1                £10.00           
    Chelmsford 4:42         Smokey         1st        5/4        £12.50                   
    Cheltenham 5:00         Call Me Vick         4th        12/1                        No Bet   
    Chelmsford 5:45         Kendergarten Kop         4th        14/1                        No Bet   
    Doncaster 1:45         Just Frank         2nd        3/1                £10.00           
    Newbury 4:10         Natural History         2nd        8/1                        No Bet   
                                                       
    Sunday25th Oct                                                   
    Hexham 12:55         Dubai Outlaw         11th        3/1                £10.00           
    Aintree 1:57         Imperial Presense         9th        18/1                        No Bet   
    Wincanton 3:27         Oscars Moonshine         1st        8/11        £7.28                   
    Aintree 3:42         Clever As A Fox          14th        17/2                        No Bet   
                                                       
    Monday 26th Oct                                                   
    Redcar 1:15         Turn On The Charm        4th        85/40                £10.00           
    Galway 1:55         Theophile        12th        9/1                        No Bet   
    Wexford 3:15         Milan Native        2nd        7/5                £10.00           
    Newcastle 6:00         Rogue Tide        4th        6/1- 9.40                        No Bet   
    Newcastle 6:00         Traveller        2nd        4/1 - 5.99                £10.00           
                                                       
    Tuesday 27th Oct                                                   
    Bangor 2:00        Winningseverything        Fell        2/1 - 3.53                £10.00           
                                                       
                                                       
                            Totals P/L        £41.75        £190.00           
                                                       
                            Losing bets         4                   
                            Winning bets        20                   
                            NO BETS        10                   
By:
happysandwich
When: 29 Oct 20 12:07
^^^^
Look at Friday 23rd Oct Doncaster 3:15  - 13/8 & 6/5.
8 runners 3rd fav 10/1.

What was the point betting on the race you couldn’t win unless an outsider won.

NO BET Grin
By:
hulk23
When: 29 Oct 20 13:08
not going to break the bank if you lay them both and the 6/5 shot wins ..

rules are rules though, GL
By:
StillLearning
When: 29 Oct 20 14:40
layed the last 4 using the cistern yesterday, so will keep my eye on it, thanks for posting.
By:
happysandwich
When: 29 Oct 20 15:18
Stilllearning,

Just be careful, there has to be a few losing bets around the corner.

I will Lay Sweet Sting to win £10 with my own cash providing I can get 8.00 or under, if not NO BET.

It’s always a risk Laying big prices.

GL
By:
StillLearning
When: 29 Oct 20 15:26
yes happysandwich not much of a layer myself, but interesting system, not too bothered about laying every one and not going to risk a lay around 8, will stick to shorter less risk lays based on the system, Sweet Sting massive drifter so doesn't look 'on' today, good luck with the lay.
By:
StillLearning
When: 29 Oct 20 15:27
*'off'
By:
happysandwich
When: 29 Oct 20 16:07
I left the race alone also and at 9.00 it was a NO BET.

The two wise men? Cool
By:
StillLearning
When: 29 Oct 20 16:17

Oct 29, 2020 -- 4:07PM, happysandwich wrote:


I left the race alone also and at 9.00 it was a NO BET.The two wise men?


err...noCry

By:
StillLearning
When: 29 Oct 20 16:19
sorry, Nice lay on sweet swing
By:
happysandwich
When: 29 Oct 20 19:29
They knew. Cool

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Exalted Angel
2.1
£10.00
£11.00
Ref: 215255162429 Submitted: 18:13 29-Oct-20

            Horse Name        Position        Bookies Odds        BFSP        Lost        Won           
                                                               
    Wednesday 28th Oct                                                           
    Taunton 1:40         Night Commander        PU        4/1 jt/f        5.60                £10.00           
    Nottingham 1:15        Flying West        2nd        3/1 fav        4.03                £10.00           
    Punchestown 1:55         Dewcup        2nd        4/1        5.4                        No Bet   
    Punchestown 1:55         Western Run        Fell        3/1 fav        4.17                        No Bet   
    Fakenham 3:02         Gaelik Coast        1st        5/1        6.99        £59.90                   
    Fakenham 4:02         Sun Rising Hill        2nd        5/2        3.80                £10.00           
    Taunton 4:10         Schnabel        9th        9/2        6.13                £10.00           
    Dundalk 4:55         Scherzando        PU        7/2 fav        5.44                £10.00           
    Kempton 7:15         Indigo Times        2nd        2/1 fav        4.84                £10.00           
    Kempton 7:45         Almighwar        4th        11/8 fav        2.42                £10.00           
                                                               
    Thursday 29th Oct                                                           
    Clonmel 2:50         Sweet Sting        4th        13/2        9.00                        No Bet   
    Lingfield 3:45         Sorrel        1st        3/1        4.16        £31.60                   
    Southwell 6:15         Exalted Angel        2nd        10/11        2.16                £10.00           
                                                               
    Friday 30th Oct                                                           
                                                               
    Newmarket 1:45         Chocoya                                                   
    Newmarket 1:45         Punchbowl Flyer                                                   
    Wetherby 2:10         Nuts Well                                                   
    Wetherby 2:45         Duffle Coat                                                   
    Newmarket 2:55         Whitehaven                                                   
    Newmarket 3:30         Waters Edge                                                   
                                                               
    Saturday 31st Oct                                                           
                                                               
    Newmarket 12:55        Bear Me In Mind                                                   
    Wetherby 1:00        Kearney Hill                                                   
    Wetherby 1:00        Pennyforapound                                                   
    Wetherby 1:35        Raecius Felix                                                   
    Wetherby 2:45        Indefatigable                                                   
    Ayr 1:07        Doktor Glaz                                                   
    Ayr 2:17        Sultans Pride                                                   
    Ascot 1:20        Ansam                                                   
    Ascot 1:20        Ga Law                                                   
    Down Royal 12:40        Duffle Coat                                                   
    Down Royal 12:40        Quilixios                                                   
    Down Royal 1:15        Bob Olinger                                                   
    Down Royal 3:00        Easy Game                                                   
    Down Royal 3:35        Rudy Catrail                                                   
                                                               
    Sunday 1st Nov                                                           
    Naas 3:05        Great Deal                                                   
    Cork 1:43        Formal Order                                                   
    Cork 2:15        The Shunter                                                   
    Huntingdon 1:51        Pink Sheets                                                   
    Huntingdon 2:56        Lots Of Luck                                                   
    Huntingdon 2:56        Dallas Cowboy                                                   
    Huntingdon 4:01        The Late Legend                                                   
    Carlisle 1:05        Kearney Hill                                                   
    Carlisle 1:05        Tupelo Mississippi                                                   
    Carlisle 1:35        Mayo Star                                                   
    Carlisle 1:35        Raecius Felix                                                   
    Lingfield 3:00        Alaphilippe                                                   
                                                               
                                    Totals P/L        £91.50        £80.00           
                                                               
                                    Losing bets         2                   
                                    Winning bets        8                   
                                    NO BETS        3                   
By:
happysandwich
When: 30 Oct 20 10:18
These 2 are NR’s today.

Newmarket 1:45 Punchbowl Flyer
Wetherby 2:10  Nuts Well

In answer to the post below can I set my bet on Chocoya like this?
Click the pink SP “Set max odds” at 8 and “Your liability” at 70
If so, would I need to have 4 x £70 = £280 in my account to cover todays 4 bets ?
Handy for anyone who goes to work and wants to do them overnight.

longbridge 28 Oct 20 19:23   
@sageform

"How will you know what the BFSPs are before the races start?"

Do you need to?  Can you not just tick the "SP Limit" box and put up an SP lay for a liability of £10 with a limit of 8.0 on every one of the horses and let BF do the work for you?

By:
penzance
When: 30 Oct 20 10:53
if you want to lay in 4 different races at once,
yes you have to have the money in your account
to cover all bets.
By:
happysandwich
When: 30 Oct 20 11:29
Thanks penzance

I'll just try it on Chocoya first, although I think it will be bigger than 8 in which case it should end up a void "NO BET".
Is that correct?
By:
samsson
When: 30 Oct 20 12:16
happysandwich been interested in your posts and done a little research into it and it could be profitable,but about leaving a sp lay up it does not work like you think as regards to a £10 level if you leave it up as 8.0 max which means a liability of £70 and it goes of at say 5.0 your liability is still £70 but if it loses your profit will be £17.50 so it is not a level stake £10,to do this you need to put on before the off if 8.0 is available hope this helps.
By:
happysandwich
When: 30 Oct 20 13:10
Samsson,

Unless it can be explained how it is possible to do, I’ll just put my bets on if they are 8 or under near the off. Like I always do.
Thought it was possible reading longbridge’s post.

If the BFSP is bigger when they are “off” that will be a NO BET on the sheet.
By:
samsson
When: 30 Oct 20 13:38
not possible at sp to lay fixed stake of £10 because price is not known to off,looked at longbridge post if you put liability at £10 and the horse lost at 8.0 your profit would be £1.42 good luck today.
By:
happysandwich
When: 30 Oct 20 14:28
Of the 10 "NO BETS" on my first chart and the 3 on the current one they ALL failed to win their race.
That’s £130 gone begging.
By:
hulk23
When: 30 Oct 20 14:43
that'll be those pesky rules ...
By:
sageform
When: 30 Oct 20 15:44
Midnight Legacy for me to turn over the winners.
By:
happysandwich
When: 30 Oct 20 16:48
Tried that BFSP thing on Duffle Coat and ended up with this instead of losing £23.50, won't do it again :-

Avg.Odds 3.98
Stake - £3.35
Lost £10

This is the chart update and I’ve still got £66.60 left of my £100 starting bank with two days to go. Woo Hoo Laugh

            Horse Name        Position        Bookies Odds        BFSP        Lost        Won           
                                                               
    Wednesday 28th Oct                                                           
    Taunton 1:40         Night Commander        PU        4/1 jt/f        5.60                £10.00           
    Nottingham 1:15        Flying West        2nd        3/1 fav        4.03                £10.00           
    Punchestown 1:55         Dewcup        2nd        4/1        5.4                        No Bet   
    Punchestown 1:55         Western Run        Fell        3/1 fav        4.17                        No Bet   
    Fakenham 3:02         Gaelik Coast        1st        5/1        6.99        £59.90                   
    Fakenham 4:02         Sun Rising Hill        2nd        5/2        3.80                £10.00           
    Taunton 4:10         Schnabel        9th        9/2        6.13                £10.00           
    Dundalk 4:55         Scherzando        PU        7/2 fav        5.44                £10.00           
    Kempton 7:15         Indigo Times        2nd        2/1 fav        4.84                £10.00           
    Kempton 7:45         Almighwar        4th        11/8 fav        2.42                £10.00           
                                                               
    Thursday 29th Oct                                                           
    Clonmel 2:50         Sweet Sting        4th        13/2        9.00                        No Bet   
    Lingfield 3:45         Sorrel        1st        3/1        4.16        £31.60                   
    Southwell 6:15         Exalted Angel        2nd        10/11 fav        2.16                £10.00           
                                                               
    Friday 30th Oct                                                           
    Newmarket 1:45         Chocoya        3rd        12/1        21.00                        No Bet   
    Wetherby 2:45         Duffle Coat        1st        11/4        3.98        £29.80                   
    Newmarket 2:55         Whitehaven        1st        11/10        2.19        £11.90                   
    Newmarket 3:30         Waters Edge        4th        11/5        3.52                £10.00           
                                                               
    Saturday 31st Oct                                                           
    Newmarket 12:55        Bear Me In Mind                                                   
    Wetherby 1:00        Kearney Hill                                                   
    Wetherby 1:00        Pennyforapound                                                   
    Ayr 2:17        Sultans Pride                                                   
    Down Royal 12:40        Quilixios                                                   
    Down Royal 3:00        Easy Game                                                   
                                                               
    Sunday 1st Nov                                                           
    Naas 3:05        Great Deal                                                   
    Cork 1:43        Formal Order                                                   
    Cork 2:15        The Shunter                                                   
    Huntingdon 1:51        Pink Sheets                                                   
    Huntingdon 2:56        Lots Of Luck                                                   
    Huntingdon 2:56        Dallas Cowboy                                                   
    Huntingdon 4:01        The Late Legend                                                   
    Carlisle 1:05        Kearney Hill                                                   
    Carlisle 1:05        Tupelo Mississippi                                                   
    Carlisle 1:35        Mayo Star                                                   
    Carlisle 1:35        Raecius Felix                                                   
    Lingfield 3:00        Alaphilippe                                                   
                                    Totals P/L        £133.20        £90.00           
                                                               
                                    Losing bets         4                   
                                    Winning bets        9                   
                                    NO BETS        4                   
By:
penzance
When: 30 Oct 20 16:56
you probably already know this,apologies if you do.
When you lay @BSP the figure you put in is your
liability,not the amount you want to win.
Put in £50,horse loses @Evens,you win £50.
Horse loses @2/1 you win £25.
By:
Eborman
When: 30 Oct 20 17:05
Happy S

Enjoying following this thread but question - was one of your original parameters " Handicaps Only"?

Just asking ,because I thought Duffle Coat would be a "no bet" as it was a Listed Race

Eborman
By:
happysandwich
When: 30 Oct 20 17:46
Eborman,

Yes it was, because I thought everything in a Handicap race was supposed to dead-heat.
I decided it made no difference and now put up anything that is going for an hat-trick. It just makes life easier.

At the end of this exorcise it’s probably worth looking back over the results and see if there’s anything worth adding to future rules.

Newmarket 1:45  Chocoya was 12/1 and BFSP 21.00 was it worth risking £200 to win a tenner? After all, it ran very well to finish 3rd and it’s easy to be wise after the event.
And it's compulsive gambling which is something I'm not interested in.

It’s all going to end in tears, I know that, but let’s enjoy the ride.

Penzance,

Just read your post after I typed the above words.
I click on the Lay price eg. 3.50 and type £10 and it tells me my liability is £25.

That’s why there is £10 in all the above boxes where the horse loses.
By:
sageform
When: 30 Oct 20 17:54
So you are not including any horse that is going for a 4 timer. Do you distinguish between a horse that has won twice since lockdown and one that won its last 2 runs last season? For me, 2 recent wins suggest another good run is likely while 2 wins last March would suggest to me that the horse is coming back for a spin round unless it is a Group or Class 1 race.
By:
happysandwich
When: 30 Oct 20 19:04
Sageform.

Got enough on my plate just doing those going for a 3 timer, thanks.

I’m 80 yrs old next July and I haven’t got enough brain cells left to get that complicated making the selections.

I’ve outlived Nobby Stiles though and he didn’t smoke 40 a day like I did back in the day.Laugh

Seriously, perhaps someone can do a similar sheet with the criteria you’ve mentioned above ?
By:
sageform
When: 30 Oct 20 20:09
Fair enough, you have 4 years on me and I can understand keeping it simple. Just interested in how you chose the system. I would put a line through any system at the end of each season and start again.
By:
TameTheTiger
When: 30 Oct 20 21:34
re the 10 no bets. the first on the list won 15/2
By:
happysandwich
When: 30 Oct 20 23:26
TameTheTiger,

It was probably because early on a poster complained it was bigger than the rules of BFSP 8.00 and that would probably be the reason I had to flag it a NO BET.
Nothing more sinister than that.

The reason there are no BFSP prices on the first chart is I was only paper trading and had no interest in them SP is much easier to understand.

On the second chart I’m using real money so I watch the race and get the BFSP as soon as the race is off.That usually differs from the price I've taken.

I’ve already stated I put £100 into my account on Wednesday 28th Oct and have £66.60 left.

The £90.00 minus £133.20 = £43.20 Loss on the second chart differs from my £100 minus £66.60 = £33.40 Loss because I take a price near the off and Plus the 2% tax also I made a couple of mistakes like missing a race because I was answering questions on here and not paying attention (like now Laugh).

Sleep well everyone.
By:
happysandwich
When: 31 Oct 20 11:33
Good morning everyone,

Wetherby 1:00 Kearney Hill
Wetherby 1:00 Pennyforapound

If both these run they will be down as NO BET (2 in the same race rule) even though they may both be under the BFSP 8.00 limit.
Given I only have 6.6 points of my 10 left, I couldn’t back them both anyway.
Any sensible thoughts?

Sageform,

Just noticed you typed this on 30 Oct 20 17:54

“For me, 2 recent wins suggest another good run is likely ...”

I often backed horses that were going for the hat trick, that’s probably the reason I started the thread – they always seemed to get beat.Laugh
By:
sageform
When: 31 Oct 20 11:37
I said they are likely to run well but I accept that many get beaten. If you are limiting to NH then it makes more sense as a well handicapped flat horse can run up a quick sequence of 3 or 4 while a dual jump winner while the going was fast will struggle from now on.
By:
happysandwich
When: 31 Oct 20 11:56
“as a well handicapped flat horse can run up a quick sequence of 3 or 4 while a dual jump winner while the going was fast will struggle from now on”

That’s a nugget to bear in mind as the flat season comes to an end.
Be interesting to see if it works better on NH races only.
Although there's the allweather racing.
By:
11kv
When: 31 Oct 20 13:41
Quilixios 1.07 @Down Royal
By:
happysandwich
When: 31 Oct 20 13:55
11kv,

I completely missed that race, just seen it returned 1/16 can somebody put the BFSP up. Please
By:
11kv
When: 31 Oct 20 13:59
Only 4 runners barely came off the bridle until the last and won by  many lengths BSP 1.08
By:
happysandwich
When: 31 Oct 20 14:28
Thanks 11kv

Looks like I can put my remaining £66.60 on Sultans Pride if it remains under 7.60.
I'll call it a day on the system if it comes unstuck for me.

Results so far today :-

    Saturday 31st Oct                                                           
    Newmarket 12:55        Bear Me In Mind        9th        12/1        15.00                        No Bet   
    Wetherby 1:00        Kearney Hill        2nd        17/2        5.70                        No Bet   
    Wetherby 1:00        Pennyforapound        5th        13/2        7.33                        No Bet   
    Ayr 2:17        Sultans Pride                                                   
    Down Royal 12:40        Quilixios        1st        1/16        1.07        £0.08                   
    Down Royal 3:00        Easy Game                                                   
By:
11kv
When: 31 Oct 20 14:38
GL
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 31 Oct 20 14:46
Happysandwich

Good luck, but i need Easy Game to win for the Lucky Pins in the team competition. Wink
By:
tanglefoot
When: 31 Oct 20 15:17
Sultan,above the cut off,Happy,has to be Easy Game.Grin
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