Where's it running?

That’s another worst case scenario today with back to back winners.

Especially after starting in a good mood this morning singing along with Edith at the top of our voices.

WEEK 5
	Horse Name	Position	Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won
Sunday 15th Nov
Punchestown 1:05	Buildmeupbuttercup	1st	3/1	4.42			No Bet
Punchestown 1:05	Daylight Katie	5th	9/1	12.60			No Bet
Fontwell 12:25  (Novice H.)	Lord Accord	UR	13/8	2.77		£10.00
Cheltenham 2:25	Put The Kettle On	1st	7/4	2.73	£17.30
Cheltenham 4:05	Weseekhimhere	3rd	10/11	2.01		£10.00
Monday 16th Nov
Leicester 1:00	Breffniboy	1st	15/8	3.08	£20.80
Dundalk 3:45	Saltonstall	1st	9/4	3.75	£27.50
Tuesday 17th Nov
Southwell 12:20	Ustath
Southwell 3:50	Pearl Of Qatar
Fakenham 2:03	Limited reserve
Lingfield 1:41	Ruby ****
Newcastle 7:45	Burrows  Seeside
Wednesday 18th Nov
Ffos Las 1:05	Robin Of Sherwood
Hexham 2:30	McGinty's Dream
Kempton 6:55	Johan		Totals		£65.60	£20.00
			Losing bets		3
			Winning bets		2
			No Bets		2

Should have known better with breffniboy, that's three wins in seven days, striking while the iron is hot. I think he just about found his mark today though, we shall see.

hapsan, what IS that all about?

I'll probably be laying with real cash next time Ericster will post bet on here

That was the only reason I layed it. I've never been a race-goer but I've been to leics, that's quite a run-in, and in the mud , well. Having said that, exeter is supposed to be pretty testing. And having said that, he probably IS ,or was, ahead of the handicapper.

Just have to chalk that one mate.

happysandwich out of the three you posted on my latest back system  of (first life time win in a handicap )                                                                                                                                 
      Midnight Glance    14:50 Plumpton    (won 15-8)    Handicap Hurdle,    Handicap Hurdle was a selection                                                                                            
    Court Duty   won way back 04/07/2018 followed by a 10th place                                                                                                                                     
   cyclop won its first one 26/12/14 then PU

the other horse I would class as a qualifier today also won Rose Of Aghaboe    13:30 Leicester    (won 11-4)     Handicap Chase    Handicap Hurdle ( i actually like hurdle winners that go chasing   ...................three qualifiers for the future (THAT WON THEIR FIRST HANDICAP TODAY) are :
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Avoid De Master    16/11/2020    15:30 Leicester        Handicap Hurdle
Invincible Cave    16/11/2020    15:50 Plumpton        Handicap Hurdle
Doctor Nuno    16/11/2020    14:10 Wolverhampton        Handicap..................im not including Devious Dicks Dame    16/11/2020    13:50 Plumpton        Selling Handicap Hurdle do to it being a seller

dak, maybe I over-think things sometimes but perhaps trainers aim to get their first time h/cap winners low enough in the ratings to tolerate a penalty. This thread is becoming quite a challenge. I applaud you all.

Wednesday 18 November 2020    12:55 Warwick    Arian
Wednesday 18 November 2023    13:20 Hexham    Discko Des Plages
       
Wednesday 18 November 2021    13:05 Ffos Las    Little Red Lion
Wednesday 18 November 2022    13:05 Ffos Las    Lamanver Bel Ami
       
Wednesday 18 November 2024    15:40 Hexham    Wind Of Hope
Wednesday 18 November 2025    15:40 Hexham    Kilcaragh Boy

Tuesday 17 November 2020    17:15 Newcastle    Tapeten Toni     Nursery
Tuesday 17 November 2020    17:15 Newcastle    Elland Road Boy    Nursery
           
Wednesday 18 November 2020    16:25 Kempton    Vitalline    Nursery  ..............i'm not sure about 2 year old nursery handicaps to me there could be many fast improvers at that age.

sorry i think a new thread should have been started ...but at least on this one my find is hidden.

I'd stay well clear of Ustath tomorrow.

Okay, here we go, me talking horlicks again, Fakenham:

12:33,  Mount Windsor, a fav in a novice but I'm particularly interested in this one because of the quick re-appearance. Have I read your post correctly hapsan?
Course ought to be okay.. Going hopefully not too much of a worry and with a claimer up, a winner without a pen. Well that's the theory.

1:03,   Gleno, won it's first h'cap chase last time out. Not first h'cap,  won h'cap hdls in 2019. Have I read you correctly dak?
Course and going ought to be okay, Rumble B  gets a 3lb pull for 2lengths but if Gleno gets his own way, they'll have to run him down.

Well:  That's my two penn'orth.

Was right about Ustath at Suvvers you have to add some form dimension to this or it's just a roulette depending how long you are doing it for.

We know it doesn't work blind so it's the only option.

Easy to say now but it did look that good.

Thanks, Pennies in the pot striding, that's me done for the day.

Yes, I think so.

Management,  there are some very logical observations and [not unreasonable] assumptions being made here.
There IS a lot going in this thread, I'm struggling to keep track of it all and I'm cherry-picking, can't deny it.
M W wasn't just a horse that won it's first h'cap last time out, it's all there in the above comments.
I'm not looking to bet regularly, just two or three a week would suffice if I could just minimize the losers. Lol! The grail.
And, if I can make something of this, I'll be happy to put my picks up in here and the others can decide for themselves. It's the least I can do.
Could all go down the toilet of course.
We shall see eh?

The only comments I am making are regarding whether the selections for the hat trick are looking good prospects to lay.

As mentioned the one at suvvers earlier definitely looked to have no negs about it.

Suvvers horses proven at the track with back class and running well beneath their past ceiling in good recent form must be very dangerous to lay just because they have won 2 on the bounce!

Yes I se you are taking the individual into account Eric got to be done.

the_dak
16 Nov 20 18:50
Joined:
09 Jun 04
| Topic/replies: 309 | Blogger: the_dak's blog
happysandwich out of the three you posted on my latest back system  of (first life time win in a handicap )                                                                                                                                 
      Midnight Glance    14:50 Plumpton    (won 15-8)    Handicap Hurdle,    Handicap Hurdle was a selection                                                                                           
    Court Duty   won way back 04/07/2018 followed by a 10th place                                                                                                                                     
   cyclop won its first one 26/12/14 then PU

the other horse I would class as a qualifier today also won Rose Of Aghaboe    13:30 Leicester    (won 11-4)     Handicap Chase    Handicap Hurdle ( i actually like hurdle winners that go chasing   ...................three qualifiers for the future (THAT WON THEIR FIRST HANDICAP TODAY) are :
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Avoid De Master    16/11/2020    15:30 Leicester        Handicap Hurdle
Invincible Cave    16/11/2020    15:50 Plumpton        Handicap Hurdle
Doctor Nuno    16/11/2020    14:10 Wolverhampton        Handicap..................im not including Devious Dicks Dame    16/11/2020    13:50 Plumpton        Selling Handicap Hurdle do to it being a seller

^^^^
This is what is confusing me. Posted after racing yesterday at 18:50
And not on any of my Handicap Win LTO sheets above.

Avoid De Master   1st 11/8
Invincible Cave   1st 7/2
Doctor Nuno   1st 2/1
Dicks Dame   1st 28/1 and these were the prices of it’s last 10 runs

300/1, 66/1, 150/1, 66/1, 100/1, 150/1, 100/1, 55/1, 66/1, 100/1

ericster,

And Gleno, that's two for dak I think.
Nice one dak.

Where did dak mention Gleno?

Dak,

If you are reading this I am not doubting you for one moment but punters are maybe following your selections, and mine, with real cash.
I’m posting your Handicap Win LTO sheet up now just so you can check it.
Is it correct for today and Wednesday?
Let me know in time, if there’s any more to put in or take out.

Thanks.

Handicap Win LTO	£10 Win Stake
	Horse Name	Finish	Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won
Monday 16th Nov
Plumpton 2:20	Court Duty	NR
Plumpton 2:50	Midnight Glance	1st	15/8	3.00		£20.00
Plumpton 3:20	Cyclop	NR
Leicester 1:30	Rose Of Aghaboe	1st	11/4	3.95		£29.50
Tuesday 17th Nov
Fakenham 12:33	Mount Windsor	1st	5/6	1.87		£8.70
Southwell 2:20	Lexi The One	1st	7/4			£17.50
Newcastle 3:40	Eagles Foot
Newcastle 6:45	Continental
Southwell 3:50	Tom Tulliver
Southwell 3:50	God Of Dreams
Newcastle 5:45	Stealing Silk
Newcastle 5:45	Broctune Red
Newcastle 17:15	Tapeten Toni
Newcastle 17:15	Elland Road Boy
Wednesday 18th Nov
Ffos Las 1:05	Vitalline
Kempton4:25	Lamanver Bel Ami
12:55 Warwick	Arian
13:20 Hexham	Discko Des Plages
13:05 Ffos Las	Little Red Lion
13:05 Ffos Las	Lamanver Bel Ami
5:40 Hexham	Wind Of Hope
5:40 Hexham	Kilcaragh Boy
16:25 Kempton	Vitalline
				Totals	£0.00	£75.70
			Losers	0
			Winners	4