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By:

ericster When: 19 Nov 20 14:33

management, like I said, cherry-picking.
Dollnamix hosed up last time apparently.
Post race comment reads "at a canter".
LTO 9days.
We shall see.

By:

ericster When: 19 Nov 20 14:51

WD the dak.

By:

ericster When: 19 Nov 20 14:57

Nov 19, 2020 -- 8:33AM, ericster wrote:

management, like I said, cherry-picking.Dollnamix hosed up last time apparently.Post race comment reads "at a canter".LTO 9days.We shall see.

Ditto Ivor's Involvement:
3.05. Mar.Ras.
Hosed up last time out.
7 days ago.
Wnr without a penalty.
Fingers crossed eh?

By:

ericster When: 19 Nov 20 15:09

By:

The Management When: 19 Nov 20 15:17

Sorry - Eric - busy with my actual bets (mostly at Newcastle) - well done Dollnamix but Ivors' Involvement not so good - but hopefully you are level across the two of them.

By:

ericster When: 19 Nov 20 15:22

I'm okay mate and that's me done for the day.
Pennies up but not down.
We live to play another day.

You? How's y'luck?

Will be interested to see how the 15.42. goes.
If I had to pick one I'd go for Sehayli but I'll let that one go I reckon.

By:

ericster When: 19 Nov 20 15:31

HAPSAN,

what you said about laying all novices.
I'm keeping a record of results, just out of interest really, seeing how one might fare laying every runner [short prices only] and doubling the stake every time a winner went in until one lost.
How bad could THAT get?
We'll see.
Deffo paper-playing THAT one.

By:

the_dak When: 19 Nov 20 19:44

Saturday 21 November 2020 13:50 Haydock Kid Commando
Saturday 21 November 2020 13:50 Haydock Arrivederci
Saturday 21 November 2020 14:25 Haydock Collooney
Saturday 21 November 2020 12:55 Ascot Demachine
Saturday 21 November 2020 14:33 Huntingdon Wye Aye
Saturday 21 November 2020 14:20 Lingfield Newyorkstateofmind
Saturday 21 November 2020 17:30 Wolverhampton Cityzen Serg
Saturday 21 November 2020 17:30 Wolverhampton Convertible
Saturday 21 November 2020 19:30 Wolverhampton Eagle Creek

By:

madhatters When: 19 Nov 20 19:59

Whats the system rules Dak ?

By:

the_dak When: 19 Nov 20 20:51

Backing system of horses that had their (first life time win in a handicap ) that’s running again in a handicap ...i'm hoping to tweak it after more results

By:

the_dak When: 19 Nov 20 20:57

Thursday 19 November 2020 13:30 Market Rasen Glinger Flame nr
Thursday 19 November 2020 13:40 Wincanton Carys' Commodity won 7/2f
Thursday 19 November 2020 14:12 Wincanton Bridle Loanan 7th
Thursday 19 November 2020 14:42 Wincanton Dollnamix won 11/10f

Thursday 19 November 2020 15:42 Wincanton Sehayli won 10/11f
Thursday 19 November 2020 15:42 Wincanton Raving Bonkers 7th

Thursday 19 November 2020 16:50 Newcastle Get Boosting 5th
Thursday 19 November 2021 16:50 Newcastle Birkenhead 7th that's another 3 winners from 5 races :)

By:

happysandwich When: 20 Nov 20 09:30

WEEK 5
	Horse Name	Position	Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won
Sunday 15th Nov
Punchestown 1:05	Buildmeupbuttercup	1st	3/1	4.42			No Bet
Punchestown 1:05	Daylight Katie	5th	9/1	12.60			No Bet
Fontwell 12:25 (Novice H.)	Lord Accord	UR	13/8	2.77		£10.00
Cheltenham 2:25	Put The Kettle On	1st	7/4	2.73	£17.30
Cheltenham 4:05	Weseekhimhere	3rd	10/11	2.01		£10.00

Monday 16th Nov
Leicester 1:00	Breffniboy	1st	15/8	3.08	£20.80
Dundalk 3:45	Saltonstall	1st	9/4	3.75	£27.50

Tuesday 17th Nov
Southwell 12:20	Ustath	1st	15/8	2.97	£19.70
Southwell 3:50	Pearl Of Qatar	5th	100/30	4.72		£10.00
Fakenham 2:03	Limited reserve	3rd	11/1	13.50			No Bet
Newcastle 7:45	Burrows Seeside	3rd	7/4	3.03		£10.00

Wednesday 18th Nov
Ffos Las 1:05	Robin Of Sherwood	4th	3/1	5.22		£10.00
Warwick 2:05	Phoenix Way	1st	11/4	4.00	£30.00
Hexham 2:30	McGinty's Dream	PU	5/1	7.00			No Bet
Kempton 6:55	Johan	8th	5/1	6.83			No Bet

Thursday 19th Nov
Market Rasen 12:30	Stoners Choice	1st	Evens	1.98	£9.80
Wincanton 12:40	Beyond The Pale	2nd	5/6	1.92		£10.00

Friday 20th Nov
Gowran Park 12:15	Ferny Hollow
Chepstow 1:40	Silent Steps
Catterick 2:23 Novice	Stormin Norman
Gowran Park 2:32	Energumene
Gowran Park 3:07	Exit To The West
Ascot 3:15	Mr Muldoon
Dundalk 5:30	Pulse Of Shanghai
Newcastle 4:15	La Rav

Saturday 21st Nov
Haydock 12:10	Do Your Job
Naas 12:30	Call Me Lyreen
Haydock 1:50	Arrivederci
Haydock 1:50	On The Wild Side
Haydock 1:50	Minella Charmer
Huntingdon 1:58	Orchestral Rain
Ascot 2:05	Imperial Aura
Ascot 3:17	Amoola Gold
Naas 3:22	Ceadarwood Road
Wolverhampton 5:30	Athmad

			Totals		£125.10	£60.00

			Losing bets	6
			Winning bets	6
			[b]No Bets	[/b]5

			Weekly
	Lost	Won	Profit
week 1	£28.90	£140.00	£111.10
week 2	£73.38	£110.00	£36.62
week 3	£40.70	£90.00	£49.30
week 4	£123.60	£120.00	£3.60
week 5	£125.10	£60.00	[color=red]£65.10

Totals	£391.68	£520.00

Over all profit	£128.32

By:

happysandwich When: 20 Nov 20 09:35

Week 5 should be -£65.10 Loss

By:

happysandwich When: 20 Nov 20 10:04

Does anyone know the easiest horse tracker?

The_dak,

Your 10 first time Handicap winners now become next time out treble seekers.
Going to the well once too often the Handicapper could have their measure?
Be easy to copy them off this chart and have them flagged up.

First ever Handicap	£10 Win Stake
Win LTO
	Horse Name	Finish	Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won
Monday 16th Nov
Plumpton 2:20	Court Duty	NR
Plumpton 2:50	Midnight Glance	1st	15/8	3.00		£20.00
Plumpton 3:20	Cyclop	NR
Leicester 1:30	Rose Of Aghaboe	1st	11/4	3.95		£29.50

Tuesday 17th Nov
Fakenham 12:33	Mount Windsor	1st	5/6	1.87		£8.70
Southwell 2:20	Lexi The One	1st	7/4	2.90		£19.00
Newcastle 3:40	Eagles Foot	1st	6/4	2.49		£14.90
Southwell 3:50	Tom Tulliver	2nd	3/1	4.74	£10.00
Southwell 3:50	God Of Dreams	6th	14/1	18.40	£10.00
Newcastle 5:15	Tapeten Toni	4th	11/2	8.21	£10.00
Newcastle 5:15	Elland Road Boy	5th	7/4	2.89	£10.00
Newcastle 5:45	Stealing Silk	3rd	3/1	4.45	£10.00
Newcastle 5:45	Broctune Red	5th	2/1	3.51	£10.00
Newcastle 6:45	Continental	7th	3/1	4.04	£10.00

Wednesday 18th Nov
Warwick 12:55	Arian	1st	11/4	4.00		£30.00
Ffos Las 13:05	Little Red Lion	Fell		13.50	£10.00
Ffos Las 13:05	Lamanver Bel Ami	1st	7/1	8.40		£74.00
Hexham 13:20	Discko Des Plages	6th	3/1	4.80	£10.00
Hexham 3:40	Wind Of Hope	PU	28/1	52.60	£10.00
Hexham 3:40	Kilcaragh Boy	5th	6/1	7.00	£10.00
Kempton 16:25	Vitalline	11th	17/2	13.50	£10.00

Thursday 19th Nov
13:40 Wincanton	Carys' Commodity	1st	7/2	5.10		£41.00
14:12 Wincanton	Bridle Loanan	7th	16/1	21.70	£10.00
14:42 Wincanton	Dollnamix	1st	11/10	2.16		£11.60
15:42 Wincanton	Sehayli	1st	10/11	2.16		£11.60
15:42 Wincanton	Raving Bonkers	7th	5/1	7.80	£10.00
13:30 Market Rasen	Glinger Flame	NR
16:50 Newcastle	Get Boosting	5th	12/1	16.50	£10.00

Friday 20th Nov
15:15 Ascot	Onefortheroadtom
15:50 Ascot	Leostar
13:40 Chepstow	Kapga De Lily
14:15 Chepstow	Piggy Winkle
14:50 Chepstow	Enzo D'Airy
16:00 Chepstow	Sexy Lot
12:05 Catterick	Airgead Suas
19:15 Newcastle	Ballyare

Saturday 21st Nov
12:55 Ascot	Demachine
13:50 Haydock	Kid Commando
13:50 Haydock	Arrivederci
14:20 Lingfield	Newyorkstateofmind
14:25 Haydock	Collooney
14:33 Huntingdon	Wye Aye
17:30 Wolverhampton	Cityzen Serg
17:30 Wolverhampton	Convertible
19:30 Wolverhampton	Eagle Creek

				Totals	£150.00	£260.30

			Losers	15
			Winners	10

By:

top2rated When: 20 Nov 20 10:17

happysandwich

Re. your chart above.

You've listed Glinger Flame as a non-runner in the 13:30 at Marker Rasen yesterday.

As I pointed out on this thread yesterday morning with a post marked FAO the_dak, the horse wasn't even a qualifier as it had already won a handicap hurdle in March 2019.

I assume the_dak didn't see the post or maybe he did and chose to ignore it when the horse was declared a non-runner.

By:

ericster When: 20 Nov 20 10:37

Going for the last two of dak's chepstow picks here I think.
Enzo + Sexy.

By:

ericster When: 20 Nov 20 11:15

You know how it is when you umm and you ahh, the doubts set in and you change your mind.

Well, I've gone for Sexy pot, my one bet for the day.
Sorry Enzo.

By:

madhatters When: 20 Nov 20 11:36

Cheers Dak

Some decent stats guys about here who might short cut your tweaks
Has to be a LTO winner ?
GL

By:

madhatters When: 20 Nov 20 11:37

Happy
Timeform easy enough and free
Sends you mail night before if reqd
Up to you what info you put in

By:

stridingedge When: 20 Nov 20 11:45

Daks system blind is 10% this year for backers but a loss 5 years previous and overall.

By:

madhatters When: 20 Nov 20 11:50

Cheers Stride
Saves me putting the time in

By:

ericster When: 20 Nov 20 11:51

Interesting striding,
both systems highlighting important factors though I think, winners to be found there.
Trouble is, what's that saying? The more you read the less you know.

By:

ZEALOT When: 20 Nov 20 11:59

People think because you are laying and profits are very slow in regard to your betting bank you have to lay lay lay . Because of this thought process many betfairians are too active and need to be far more PATIENT .

By:

happysandwich When: 20 Nov 20 12:15

Madhatters,

Thanks, I’ll go with Timeform.

Top2rated,

Court Duty & Cyclop at the top I’ve also left in as NR’s.
They shouldn’t be in there, I just thought maybe leave them for some sort of reference. They won't be there if I post the chart again.

The Dac was able to look back through my sheets and able to spot the trend for backing winners.
After all, how would you feel if those NR’s went in at 20/1, 15/2, and 14/1 next time they run and I’d deleted them without telling you?

I don’t do any checking, just paste them in (lick em & stick em).

This is where I took Ginger Flame from.

the_dak
18 Nov 20 19:34
Joined:
09 Jun 04
| Topic/replies: 316 | Blogger: the_dak's blog
Thursday 19 November 2020 13:40 Wincanton Carys' Commodity
Thursday 19 November 2020 14:12 Wincanton Bridle Loanan
Thursday 19 November 2020 14:42 Wincanton Dollnamix

Thursday 19 November 2020 15:42 Wincanton Sehayli
Thursday 19 November 2020 15:42 Wincanton Raving Bonkers

Thursday 19 November 2020 13:30 Market Rasen Glinger Flame

Thursday 19 November 2020 16:50 Newcastle Get Boosting
16:50 Newcastle Birkenhead (These last two both won nuseries at two but they both won proper handicaps lto.............

two nice winners today 12:55 Warwick Arian Handicap Chase won 11-4.
13:05 Ffos Las Lamanver Bel Ami Handicap Hurdle won 7-1.

By:

happysandwich When: 20 Nov 20 12:44

Daks system blind is 10% this year for backers but a loss 5 years previous and overall.

Airgead Suas just made it:-
Winners =11
Losers = 15

As ericster said, “The more you read the less you know.”

By:

The Management When: 20 Nov 20 12:51

You still haven't excluded the nurseries Happy.

Not sure if SE excluded them either - when interrogating his database?

By:

Lucky Sod When: 20 Nov 20 13:00

I'm noticing if you excluded backing horses above 10/1 from this first week that also improves the stats,also favourites that come from this back system seem to do very well.

By:

The Management When: 20 Nov 20 13:13

Hi Lucky Sod - It probably overlaps what you are saying (i.e. excludes a lot of the bigger priced ones) -
but I'd be much more interested in (as well as excluding nurseries altogether), only including horses that
managed that magical first HC win in the previous 21 days. Too lazy/ignorant to do it - but maybe one of the
Database boys will oblige.

It's still just back-fitting - so much prefer to look at every horse/race on
its own merits - but at least it is back-fitting based on some logic (imo). GL.

By:

ericster When: 20 Nov 20 13:19

SINCE WE'RE ALL HERE TRYING TO FIND A WAY OF TURNING A PROFIT,

AND SINCE THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME USEFUL IDEAS BEING PUT THROUGH THE GRINDER HERE,

I'D LIKE TO THROW THIS INTO THE MIX:

With no small measure of testicular-fortitude, a staking-plan could make dak's system a winner.
A staking plan as in a betting stake to recover previous losses as and when they occur.
That doesn't necessarily mean doubling your stake each time you bet.
Just staking enough to recover+ what ever your intended profit is.

By:

stridingedge When: 20 Nov 20 13:19

Excluding nurseries make sno difference.

We have a huge sample of real world results that would indicate this year around 9% for the backers (excluding nurseries) is just a blip.

By:

stridingedge When: 20 Nov 20 13:21

Unless you are beating the sp regularly or have some form criteria that takes into account the actual horses as individuals forget it.

By:

happysandwich When: 20 Nov 20 13:23

You still haven't excluded the nurseries Happy.

Not sure if SE excluded them either - when interrogating his database?

TM

As I’ve just said - I don’t do any checking, just paste them in (lick em & stick em).

Perhaps you could do a sheet with all the data correct, to your own liking?

If not, could you just highlight the offending Nursery’s and I’ll omit them from the sheet, along with the NR’s, when I do an update after racing today?

By:

ericster When: 20 Nov 20 13:25

Management, re:what I've said about cherry-picking.

I'm on the lookout for winners being turned out quickly after h/c win.
Preferably having hosed up and well in at the weights.

That's just my starter of course.

BTW, out of interest;

DOES ANYBODY KNOW?

How long before a winner is re-assessed by the handicapper?

By:

The Management When: 20 Nov 20 13:25

SE - can you humour me and do the 21 day thing (assuming it's just a click of a button?),
If it's any work required - don't bother - just curious. TIA.

Eric - if you need a staking plan to make anything work - it's a non-starter imo.

By:

stridingedge When: 20 Nov 20 13:27

Every tuesday

By:

stridingedge When: 20 Nov 20 13:28

Whats the 21 day thing TM?

will be back after next Ascot race

By:

ericster When: 20 Nov 20 13:31

Management, not totally convinced of that and am looking at it, paper-playing and YES, really, I'm looking at it, that's all.

By:

ericster When: 20 Nov 20 13:35

Nov 20, 2020 -- 7:27AM, stridingedge wrote:

Every tuesday

Thanks striding

By:

happysandwich When: 20 Nov 20 13:40

Lucky Sod
20 Nov 20 14:00
Joined:
01 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 1,242 | Blogger: Lucky Sod's blog
I'm noticing if you excluded backing horses above 10/1 from this first week that also improves the stats,also favourites that come from this back system seem to do very well.

Thanks for spotting those two points Lucky – anyone backing these will do well to remember them.
Silly chucking money away.

By:

The Management When: 20 Nov 20 13:55

stridingedge20 Nov 20 14:28Joined: 14 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 58,955 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
Whats the 21 day thing TM?

Thanks Striding - just interested what it looks like if only betting the one that achieved the HC win
(that has now triggered them as a bet) within the previous 3 weeks. TIA.