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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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I just got Snow Ocean out the frame (nearly last) at Lingers (13:05).
I put a line through the 16:10 Chelmsford Jon - every runner has scope for improvement and could all be anything imo - 5 candidates for 3 places? Pleased to see you looking at it - some cracking value out there (place laying) imo. 09-Jan-21 12:59:42 13:05 Lingfield Snow Ocean - To Be Placed Betfair Bet ID 1:221319242830 | Matched: 09-Jan-21 12:59:59 Lay 2.00 |
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If you stick to sub Evens - it probably won't cost you much as an experiment Jon.
I do like to play some of the real shorties in non-handicaps from time to time - but handicaps are my preference by a long way. It's not that hard to find relatively short ones on the AW that are running on the "wrong" surface (imo) to maybe get their mark down, same with wrong trip or simply ones that have found their mark and will maybe struggle with the bigger weight. The margins between winning and being unplaced can be quite marginal (less so at Southwell and Wolves) - but certainly on the Polytrack imo. GL. |
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Snow Ocean (above) quite a good example - 3/1 ish probably about right in the win market imo if you assumed you could transfer (Wolverhampton) - Tapeta form to (Lingfield) Polytrack. Every chance it would win if that happened (so not a win lay) - but where would it finish if that transfer of form from one surface to another did not materialise? Probably out of the frame imo - so Even money a nice place lay imo.
Once it went off in front - already confident it finishes nearer last than first. |
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Wish I had taken the 6.00 (5/1) Adagio last night (13:25 at Chepstow) but that was in the win market
 - Tupence Ha'penny available in the BF each way market! |
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Well - that was both pleasurable and slightly annoying to watch - but to be brutally honest if I had been on at 5/1, I think I probably would have traded out at 5/2.
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Yep just an experiment for now TM. Like I say my track record of laying in the win market is nothing short of embarrassing. It's 2/1 ish on most books and 1.41 to lay (for peanuts) so fairly low risk. It'll probably hose up now iv'e said this.
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Great call Jon !!!! you are a natural at this PLAICE laying
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Just got back in and seen what happened . I'll put that down as a non runner !!!!
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Morning all. Another quiet day. I'll throw in another hopeful rather than confident ew double.
Tellmeyourstory 2/1 3.20 Sth Top of the bill 15/8 4.10 Ex GL |
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Hi all!!!!!! done Gladiateur Allen and Top Of The Bill @ 2-1 & 5-2 .............quite agree with about Tellmeyourstory , but the surface puts me off backing anything there at the moment....
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Nothing for me today Jon - but those do look the two most tempting races of the day (in terms of shape) for potential filthy ew bets. GL.
Regarding you Plaice Lay yesterday - yep you got fortunate - but it cuts both ways and it levels itself out over time, so just take the win! In fact, take all the good fortune you can get if you are place laying at the very top of the market (particularly National Hunt) i.e. first few in the betting. No harm in getting it wrong and still collecting from time to time. There are plenty (pretty frustrating) times when you get it right but still end up paying out. i.e. your place lay runs like a drain (for the reasons you suspected) is well beaten (for win purposes) from half-way - but a couple fall/get brought down at the last and you place lay finishes in the frame in a bob of heads or a three-way photo for third, 40 lengths behind the front two (that were a front four prior to the melee last!). That's the nature of Place Laying at the top end of the markets. Obviously it's much more enjoyable when they run like a drain and finish 8th or 9th but when it is your lay that suffers the misfortune - just know that it happens both ways. |
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10-Jan-21
12:50:28 12:50 Southwell Desert Boots - To Be Placed Betfair Bet ID 1:221421425XXX | Matched: 10-Jan-21 12:50:29 Lay 2.42 There you go - it took about 8 minutes since my post for me to survive a bit of "bad luck" - I would never have place layed Desert Boots (certainly not at that price) if I thought Swinton Moon wasn't going to take part (so to speak). Take it (good and bad) and move on imo - but definitely count it when it goes for you - it will go against you too. |
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Good day all......I`m with you on Top of the Bill 4.10 Ex. e/w.....I Can`t see the fav getting beat in the 3.20 South. though fellas, but at the prices I think Gotta Feeling maybe the e/w value ?
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Morning all. Bleak yet again on the filth front. L'incorrigible 2.05 at Donny was the only one to float my boat but the ship seems to have sailed on the price.
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Morning fellas ....only one for me today...Jaunty Freyja 3.50 Hereford e/w......hoping it will trap round today,lead all the way on this sharp track, and I think it would be a shorter price if trained by one of the bigger stables !!!!
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Morning all - it's proper bleak. I have pretty much stopped even looking at the NH (stakes) races - just a glance at the tissues in case of a real shorty. I probably should have just stopped posting (filth) until the flat starts again - but I do love my AW racing and it does throw up some good filth from time to time. Although I have nothing today, in the absence of anything else (Filth wise) and time on my hands till the snooker starts, I Spent a bit of time (last night) on the 17:45 Wolves (prior to concluding no (filthy ew) bet! - doh!):
I thought Strawbs would have (perhaps wrongly) gone into a lot of notebooks (because of the way it won LTO/FTO), whereas I thought she actually benefitted from missing the break as those up front cut each others throats and set it up for the closers. Still a very nice debut - but today she has to give the 3yo's (all of the other principals in the betting) a whopping 23lbs! - So I got vaguely interested in laying her (last night) at the then tissue 2nd Fav price around 7/2. I can only assume most people think the same though - because she has doubled in price since then and lost 2nd favouritism! The favourite (Nigh Narcissus) is beginning to acquire the profile of a rogue/thinker that doesn't enjoy a battle - not sure about that quite yet because she has pretty solid form (in the context of this race) and is very consistent. But she does take a huge chunk out of the market, especially if I don't fancy Strawbs much. I do like Lead Story (ran behind Water of Leith FTO and that horse went on to be a "classical" filthy race winner next time out!) - but I liked Lead Story much better when she was 3rd favourite with a price to match! At much nicer prices, it's pretty hard to rule out Miss Bella Brand (nice debut) or Shaqeeqa (finished not too far behind Night Narcissus at Kempton off level weights). There you go - feck all - probably five horses in with a shout and all I have got is a bit of a dislike for a 11/2 poke that has drifted too far to lay! Pretty much sums up recent weeks from a filthy ew perspective. Not even Southwell to look forward to (until Friday). Bored now till the Handicaps & proper racing starts at 16:15! Conclusion: No filthy bets whatsoever but Shrewdies now all backing Strawbs imo! GL fellas! |
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TM at least ,,,,"You say what you think, that the racing stinks.....because you`re a forum man !!!!"
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come on fellas it wasn`t that bad.....for folks of a certain age !!!!! I am liking the way the 4.30 Dundalk is shaping up now...Abeona is well drawn, will have come on from the initial outing on the surface and for the trainer, down in trip (should suit the way it travels)...looks a solid e/w bet imo
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Thought Abeona jock had heard you had PLAICE laid it jon, and just aborted too early thankfully !!!!! Jaunty Fryja ran a good race and was never out of the frame...I`ve also looked at the 5.45 TM....basically coming to the same conclusion..ie if you have to back one (which you won`t) Lead Story looks the safest PLAICE
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Morning all ............really fancy one today the locally trained (for me) Dreams of Hope in the 12-30 Wetherby .......fairly recent point form been well franked ....connections very disapointed if he does not go VERY well.........tight lines!!!!!!!!
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Morning all. Agree skip taken 15/8 ew I missed the fancy Dan prices early doors.
The shape of the 12.50 at Fairyhouse looked nice earlier bit it's FTO and I can't get that stable right for love nor money. |
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Looks a 3 horse race skip, and not an easy intro for it ? I actually like Dharan as an e/w bet in the race at the prices. The 12.50 I agree Jon...but if Purdeys can jump...it has to be at least PLAICED imo.The 2 others I likeatm are Impressions Dream 1.10 Lingers and Destacado 6pm Newc as e/w bets
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Great bit of info Skip...well done
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Easy Peasy
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Never in much doubt.
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This 12.50 is a tempter. 2/5, 3/1 14s bar.
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I'm gonna leave it and let it win. I stiffen every horse I back from the stable
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Morning all. I'm drawn towards the lucky last at Leicester so far. Possible two bet.
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1.30 Plumpton looks a tempter as well.
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Hi all think 3 really nice races today......1-00 Plumpton i am drawn to the Irish point form of Sublime Heights......1-30 Plumpton Laughlan....looks a steal.......as does No Risk Des Flos in the in the 3-40 Leicester .........a nice little each way trixie
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1.30 was a lovely race for a two bet given the drift on the winner
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I`m with you on that 2 bet in the last at Leic Jon
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Thought we had that
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yep....woodwork hit again....weight told at the finish
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Gonna keep an eye on 6.50 at KP. Loyal Havana.
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I`ve been looking at that myself Jon....as I think the fav is beatable....but what with? I `ve backed Vivency (has not done anything wrong) and Got No Dollars( doesn`t need to improve a lot, after blowing the start against the fav FTO) both e/w....
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Deffo agree with Vivency ..........solid bet at double figure prices ...
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Great shout on Vivency lads . I backed Lord H.
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Ta Jon.....more woodwork than Wickes atm
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very heavy ground at Bangor .........the two obvious races are 1-50 where Pennyforapound and Supervisor both look pretty strong and worth a double be with the fav looking dodgy .......3-20 Strike Hollow looks a free bet providing eight turn up.........At Fontwell Rock On Rita looks worth a bet in the 3-00.......
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