There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1823 comments are related to the topic:
This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,823
|
By:
I thought the 14:45 at Southwell looked ok at a glance last night - the fav (Nelson Gay) looks solid and is very consistent but then it's got rancid connections (imo) and is trading at 1.60!
Dabirstar looks the most obvious one EW against it (if handling the surface) but appears to be utterly friendless in the market today - despite going off plenty short/fancied FTO. The next 4 in the betting are all FTO (so very little to go on apart from the market and trainer ability) and the two rags that have run (including Nozieres at a huge price imo) could easily be involved. My head says it's a total swerve - but the short jolly and the dead 8 is throwing up the age old dilemma that comes attached to such low grade fare at this time of year - i.e. Has Dabirstar drifted to a point where it should be an EW no-brainer or has it drifted so badly for more worrying reasons? - conflicted here - |
|
By:
Swerving the 14:45 - Dabristar is being layed (well, when I say layed - what I actually mean is offered - because obviously the EW market is tumbleweed!) - but it is being offered at prices that are too good to be true (imo) in the BF EW market which is typically cagey/non-existent until just before the race. Anything offered this early and to that volume that exceeds an EW bet to nothing feels suspect to me (currently 7.40 being offered). In terms of market support - I can't bring myself to back a Mick Appleby FTO 2YO (Gotta Feeling) which is the only one for money (at time of writing).
Will swerve and moan (as ever) if Dabristar is the one to give the fav a race. I might even try to cheer Noziere into a place - but no filthy thread bets. |
|
By:
Dabirstar e/w a bet to nothing TM....fav fto on this surface may well win...BUT.......
|
|
By:
Hughes trying to recoup yesterdays xmas losses ???? Southwell not the place to do it
|
|
By:
Footie (my main betting interest) ticking along ok TM thanks...mainly Div 1-2...forget all this Var rubbish
|
|
By:
SSSOoooooooooooooooo Close to a proper payday
|
|
By:
Hi 37 - Dabristar ran a race that totally belied the betting - so not as fishy as I suspected - much more annoying though I think Noziere just got done by a nose for 3rd right on the line at 9.20 (bf Place SP).
|
|
By:
Hughes stable nearly having pot noodles next week!!!!!! Total 1 horse market which made Dabistar the only alternative..I had to have some more when I saw 15 (quite remarkable as the horse did nothing wrong fto)!!!!!! traded that off in running..I am going to miss this Southwell
|
|
By:
unlucky on the PLAICE with Noziere...I was willing that home for ya also
|
|
By:
Last day before the forum gives way to desperados, half-wits, chit-chatters and the lonely for a few days.
The Thread P&L has been static (at +14.23) for a while now - mostly due to a reluctance to play on the NH races. So having a NH splurge today before taking some time out. I will be around for Southwell on 29th December - but otherwise back for the New Year. Probably looking at a new approach; given that the NH provides (me) so few confident opportunities relative to the flat for Filthy EW's, I will probably be looking at putting up a few Place lays and backs. Todays splurge: 12:25 Sedgefield: I don't think much of the win element of the 4/1 available on Word has It (could well be double that price on the BF win market) - but taking the 4/1 Each Way looks a balance worth striking, given that it provides 4/5 for the Place element of the bet. The fav looks bomb-proof but 2/7 with (hopefully) the dead 8 runners is pretty much what the thread exists for, so Word Has It really has to be a Full Stake EW bet at 4/1. 13:15 Lingfield: Fancy a Place Lay and a Place Bet - waiting for more than three quid to be available at the prices! |
|
By:
I obviously won't claim it on the Thread Bet P&L (race result = -0.20 for that purpose) - because I didn't put it up pre-race - but got win stake (plus a bit more ) back at 1.56 and 1.44 in-running when it was clear the fav had bombed.
|
|
By:
I could be on for a good hiding here if the market is to be believed - but it's all about numbers/prices imo:
13:15 Lingield: Had a full single stake (Place Only) on It's a Love Thing at average 3.45 (i.e. to win +2.45). I have also Place Layed Darwell Lion to lose a single full stake (i.e. to lose -1.00) at average 1.485. Two stakes at risk in total. |
|
By:
Market 1 - Management 0
|
|
By:
I wonder who really trained it
  |
|
By:
Bit of a poor ride from Kirby on your horse there Management I think, one for another day
|
|
By:
Yes Matty - second guessing Dave Evans is probably the fast-track to the poor house - the less said about the whole race the better - I got it horribly, horribly wrong - and ironically (given the nature of the thread
 ) the Filthy EW options finished 1st and 2nd ahead of the odds-on favourite! - But it's all about prices and I would probably do the same again faced with the same numbers/prices   |
|
By:
A thoroughly inauspicious end to the year - went close with the 4/1 chance Word Has It (12:25 Sedgefield) trading at 1.32 in running. Then made a total mess of some Plaice Only betting in the 13:15 Lingfield with the Place Lay selection actually winning the race quite easily despite trading at 40.00 in running.
Today Filth Thread Bets: 12:15 Sedgefield: Word Has It - EW - Full Stake - 2nd at ISP 4/1 (Backed EW at average 5.00) = - 0.20 13:15 Lingfield: It's A Love Thing - Full Single Stake - Place Only Back - 7th at BF Place SP 3.32 (Backed Place Only at average 3.45) = - 1.00 13:15 Lingfield: Darwell Lion - Full Single Stake - Place Only Lay - 1st at BF Place SP 1.63 (Layed Place Only at average 1.48) = - 1.00 With the Odds-On favourites getting stuffed in both of todays selected races - It's not lost on me that a couple of straightforward filthy EW Two-Bets (4 each way bets in total) based solely on market shape would have resulted in winners at 13/2 & 4/1 and also Places at 9/2 & 4/1. Daily Thread Bet Total: - 2.20  Running Thread Bet Total: + 12.03  That's me till the New Year - Have a good one filthsters! - catch up with you in January. |
|
By:
Thanks TM....still showing a + and that`s all that matters.......enjoy it as much as you can and cu in 2021
|
|
By:
to keep the thread not getting lost over the holiday period....Killer Mode 3.30 Leops. got to be PLAICED at least !!! Hoping it can stop the Mullins fest!!!
|
|
By:
Agree 37. The market has a nice shape to it though an Irish bumper in the mud won't be everyone's cup of tea. Could even be a small two bet.
|
|
By:
I've taken 5/2 ew Water of Leith 2.25 Wolves
|
|
By:
Which was nice. Got the BOG as well
|
|
By:
well done Jon.....I backed it also win/place as it was a decent race last time (that cost me a few bob..the 2 clear of the field) and this race didn`t seem to have any lurkers, well drawn and race went to exact plan !!!.....I,ve also had a small win/place on Quirt Evans at a bigger price in the 3.30 leops
|
|
By:
Noel Meade`s stable in good form regarding Killer Mode Jon..and arguably(much) the best form ???
|
|
By:
Yep I'm with you on that 37. I think it's just Killer Mode for me. I'll leave till post time to see how the market moves I think. GL
|
|
By:
u2 Jon
|
|
By:
Had a small saver on the winner but not the way I would have wanted to get some back. That was horrible to watch.
|
|
By:
It was Jon......very sad. Even though I got the place on QE....it`s never the way I like to collect
|
|
By:
Cracking bumper at Leops. today fellas........may do the 2 each way against the fav...as it has had to have improved for the break to win this ?
|
|
By:
what do we think Sasheneka in the 2-00 Catt.....
|
|
By:
Good day Skip......sharp track should suit it,Bioverdia will probably need the run, and the rest are dead wood......got to be in the 1st 2 !!!!!!
|
|
By:
Taken 7/4 Shashenka which is as low as I go
|
|
By:
yes was hoping a bit of a drift........
|
|
By:
Placed. It was hard work mind.
|
|
By:
very !!!!
|
|
By:
Have backed Real Terms and Calcalus e/w in the 3.30 Newc........hoping the fav is vunerable
|
|
By:
GL 37 Its a swerve for me I'm struggling to fancy anything in it.
|
|
By:
Just looking for a bit of value against the fav......looking forward to the 3pm Leops. The Big Getaway will be a lot fitter this time and a good bet today, and then the fascinating bumper......could be good e/w material
|
|
By:
PS...have to give credit to Tom Scud on Sashenka, as most jocks would have just coasted home in 3rd
|
|
By:
WD on the plaice at Newcastle 37
|