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This Plaice is Filthy!
This Plaice is Filthy!
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Replies: 1,823
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Maybe got a bit fortunate there (12:15 Plumpton) with the Place Lay of Buckos Boy - but jumped horribly left at every hurdle anyway.
Does anyone know why Lucky Fella (12:05 Ayr) was withdrawn? I assume it was bad as the TV guys (even with 15 minutes to fill ffs!!!) seemed absolutely determined not to talk about it, mention it or provide an update. |
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went lame down at the start.
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Thanks sadlers - just assumed it was something much more serious than that - based on the comms/pundits refusal to talk about it throughout the 15 minute delay that it caused. Weird.
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Lucky Fella had a heart attack. RIP
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Ah - thanks Brian - I hoped not but I did think it must have been something serious the way they were reacting (or more accurately not reacting!).
RIP |
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Agree with you on Defined TM
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Hi 37 - I got a couple of quid (and unfortunately I mean that quite literally!
 ) matched at 4.00 in the BF ew market.Even that seems a bit short (given the number of potential lurkers). Unless it drifts again, I don't think I can put it up as a Thread Bet - I am willing to go as short as 2/1 each way (and have a very good/positive record at such short prices) - but in the context of this race - that seems a bit short. Hope it runs well. GL. |
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The way the market developed minutes before the off....I ended up laying the fav.....so ended up square !!!
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A proper "lurker-fest" - the first three home were BFSP 31, 83 and 14.
Happy enough to have swerved that. |
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That was certainly a market to be on top of right up till the off
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well swerved TM....not that you would put up a thread selection in a race like that anyway
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Cannot understand why Havlin went so slowly........always going to be done for a turn of foot......
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I know it seems counter-intuitive (in a way) 37 - but as per my opening post (on this thread today) - I would quite happily have played Defined to at least half a stake, had it been a proper each-wayable (bigger) price.
It's just numbers at the end of the day - but I would have wanted most or all of my money back for a place in a race like that (proper lurker-fest - with so many unknowns). Saved by the market - but every bet, especially if risking two stakes (one on the win and one on the place) has to be struck or not struck in the context of the price you can get versus the context of the race (imo). I lost four quid (£2 each way at 3/1) - I would have had more on happily if it had been available at 7/2+. Anything below that - no bet imo. I have missed quite a few winners (on this thread as well as in the past years) because they were too short (in context of the race) - today I missed a loser for that reason (too short) - but it's all about prices at the end of the day. |
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Agree it wasn't his finest ride Skip -
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especially the way it seemed to stay on at Lingers last time
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No Filthy Each Way Thread bets today - but dodged a few bullets (if playing on betting shape alone) imo.
Had a satisfactory day place laying in the heavy ground Handicaps and actually had some good fortune place laying a few shorties in the dusty non-handicap races. Made a nice few quid place laying the Chelmsford specialist (Compass Point) at Kempton (17:30) - he drifted quite badly but still went of a silly short price (imo) based on winning LTO at Southwell!  . I am going to badly miss Southwell/Fibresand for soooo many reasons! - but that is all after-timing and none of it is of any help whatsoever to the thread bet running total.Daily Thread Bet Total: 0.00 Running Thread Bet Total: + 14.23 Tomorrows Flat/AW racing doesn't look great - but maybe a couple of jumps races are worth a closer look in the morning. GL ALL. |
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Morning all. I would imagine we are all looking at the 12.50 at Catterick ?
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Looked at the NH cards and (for me) in terms of Filthy EW's and betting shape it seems to distil down to just the 12:50 Catterick & 13:35 Wincanton:
12:50 Catterick: Coopers Cross looks like a no-bariner filthy EW bet on betting shape alone - but I think I have enough reservations to resist: It is Soft ground today and he was a well beaten fav (Pulled Up) when encountering Soft ground in a PTP. He traded at 1.12 in-running LTO over C&D (Good ground) when finishing 3rd - but was sent off at 50/1 (85 BFSP) and I think he may have been flattered - not many ran their race that day, he hurdled REALLY well and efficiently (others did not) and having travelled best and looked the winner (hence the 1.12 traded) he seemed to hang and folded quite tamely (imo) when challenged. Additionally the yard couldn't be in worse form - 1 win from 11 runners in the past 2 weeks is fair enough on paper - it's about their normal strike rate (10%) - but looking beyond that - the winner was a H'cap Chaser and if you break down the 10% trainer strike rate, the difference between Hurdles versus Chases is (unusually imo) quite stark - just 6% hurdle winners versus 15% Chase winners (from a very similar number of runners under each code!). From the 11 runners in the past fortnight, apart from the winner (at 11/2) - none of the others finished in the frame and plenty of them were short enough prices. Finally the betting on their sole runner yesterday (12:05 Ayr: Deep Charm) was sufficiently "ugly" (imo) that it put me off an intended place bet on it! - It seemed to have a lot going for it (imo) - but Deep Charm drifted sufficiently alarmingly (in the win and place market) to put me off an intended place bet - it ran like a drain and was reported afterwards to have a breathing problem. Fookin ell - I have written a short book! - The 12:50 market is shaping up to be classic filth (at time of writing) so I'm really not saying it's a place lay imo - I wouldn't want to put anybody (that bets the Filthy EW's) off of it, I really hope it runs well for those that back it - but it's not a bet for me. I'm so obsessed with filth that I'd be very happy to be proved wrong & watch it win - but it won't have any of my money on it. 13:35 Wincanton: Here Comes McCoy looks semi-obvious - but I just think the race is a bit more "lurky" (less clear cut) than the market is currently indicating. I might yet have an EW bet on him but I think I would want a slightly bigger price than currently available. Newcastle - looks grim (imo) but it will be fascinating to see how Mondammej runs in the 15:15 race. After his win FTO I note-booked Mondammej as likely to be overbet next time out and thought there might be a good angle opposing him next time out (with a penalty) with any EW bet - It's a shame there are only 3 runners! Although he did everything wrong BEFORE his race LTO and the 2nd (Fauvette) has won since - I didn't think Mondammej beat anything much - but unfortunately not sure he has much to beat today either! Wolverhampton - Will have to post later - but the 20:10 looks good. I also think I quite like the 18:10 - but from a form perspective - would want to watch the 17:40 before betting on the 18:10. GL all. |
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Hi Jon - I'm gonna swerve it - but don't let me put you off - I couldn't hit a barn door at the moment in relation to NH filth!
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Morning TM. If I do back it it will be just before the off and to minimum stakes. I'll probably back Here Comes Mccoy and Ricksen has taken my eye in the 8.10 but i'll leave both until the death I think.
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There's no pleasing me Jon! - I have been looking at the 13:35 Wincanton again - and now that Here Comes McCoy has gone to about the sort of price I thought I might back it at - I think I have gone off it!
- I thought the race was a bit "lurky" from the outset but the more I look, the more I think that it might just be too "lurky". I'm in serious danger of catching Lurkitis!Agree - It's just as well to leave any bets till later - especially Wolverhampton. GL. |
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I'm still not betting it - but for those that have - at least this Coopers Cross (12:50) is solid in the market (especially the Place market).
GL if you played it. |
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I'm still not 100% sure how that failed to place - but pretty happy with my write-up and glad to have swerved it as a Filthy EW thread bet.
I don't play in-running so to speak - but I got a bit in-play (keep bet lays - in the win market) - but needed 1.51 or 1.34 for a decent payday and it didn't go quite that low. Not sure if it was the ground or if the horse is a bit of a "bridle ponce". |
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You couldn't have called that much better TM. Horrible, glad it was min stake.
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Cheers Jon - Very pleased to hear it was minimal.
It feels wrong (kind of disloyal and treacherous) and completely counter-intuitive to be picking them apart - but I am a layer at heart and going in blind - or on market shape alone - has never been kind to me on NH racing. I am gonna swerve this 13:35 (too lurky imo) |
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Well swerved TM
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Cheers Jon - 14:45 at Newcastle goes to the Filthy EW option - the way the market panned out - but just too many lurkers (imo) for a play though.
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Didn`t think anyone would be playing today....all far too trappy...even that 8.10 is a 5 horse race atm....but worth watching to see if that number decreases later
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I have to say 37 - I am slowly coming around to that way of thinking (re the 20:10) - Its just that the thread is getting a bit like a Kevin Pullein (
 ) column - lots of words and no selections. I would like to put up a few place lays (because I have plenty of those every day) and that was actually part of my intent when I started the thread - but (as I have stated before) it's all a bit pointless putting one up (with a price) if there is only 4 quid waiting to be matched on the back side! |
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but is Pullein showing a bigger profit TM ? Keep The Discipline...a profit is a profit
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may be a classic trading race, where they push 2 out (Rickson and Moohareeba) shortening the rest, only to back them nearer the race....will be worth watching.......I`m looking to back both at these levels now 7 and 3.8 respectively...I think one of them will be punted later
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and i1m laying the jolly at 2.4......all as trading punts atm
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4 horse race now...we are getting there !!!!
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Ricksen looks the bet e/w......good luck Jon
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Swerved it (from an EW perspective) here. GL if you play.
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I`ve backed it e/w
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well win and plaice to be exact
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always tomorrow !!!!!
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No filthy Each Way Thread Bets (again!) today - but called a few races about right and had a good day.
Daily Thread Bet Total: 0.00 Running Thread Bet Total: + 14.23 |
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Kakamora 12-20 Ludlow the only real fancy today............
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