GL Skip - I looked at todays cards last night and decided to take a day away from the filth. I'm spending too much time on it - somewhat ironically - the less filth there is - the more it seems to impact on my other betting (in terms of time).

RED LION LAD 1.05 Exeter today.....

Morning Skip - I thought Dock Road in the 13:05 Exeter - but not strongly enough for a proper bet on it. Will probably just watch the race as trying to avoid the NH unless I feel really strongly about it.

It's not a filthy race (although it is a non-handicap with just 8 runners) - but I am pretty keen on opposing Passional (14:50 Southwell). It would have to be a really poor race for Passional to win one (outside of Handicap company) imo. It does look a pretty poor race in all fairness so perhaps today will be her Derby so to speak - but I'd be pretty disappointed if something can't beat her. The problem is having a strong view for an EW alternative, I suppose Tomorrowland looks the most obvious option - but it looks like any of the other 7 could win (imo) - just by virtue of being just slightly better than moderate!

I may just lay Passional - but it might get interesting (in terms of Each Way options) as the market matures. GL all.

37 - Philli

Dock Road wins (13:05 Exeter) at quite a nice price - although never really looked like winning (imo) until he did! - Place never in doubt though and the win a bit of a bonus.

I have traded out of my Passional (14:50 Southwell) lay - layed at average 2.09 (after deductions) - greened out at 2.32. I still don't like her much I'm much less interested in a 6 horse race.

Not a great day to look forward to (from a Filthy EW perspective) - but at least it is the second day of the Southwell Festival:

13:00 Navan: Looks a penalty kick for the fav (Bob Olinger) and I wouldn't feel confident enough about what might finish in the frame anyway.
13:10 Uttoxeter: Is losing runners more quickly that Prince William is losing his hair - though obviously still paying 3 places EW on Betfair - but this will be reflected in the EW prices available - I will keep an eye on the price of Itsnotwhatyouthink - hoping it might go big enough for an attempted EW bet to (almost) nothing.
17:45 Wolves: To the Bar (fav) would have been a very welcome 9/2 winning addition to the thread P&L LTO (if the forum hadn't been Kaput again that day!) - not sure what beats it today (if anything) but with 7 hours till race time, will keep an eye on the market. Open Mystery looks the most likely EW option if forced to bet but there are a few "lurkers" imo.
19:15 Wolves: Fav (Alphonse Karr) maybe a bit flattered FTO/LTO? - but probably still a worthy fav - race looks a bit "lurky" and with Elusive Treat having trebled in price (!) - I suppose The Quiet Rebel vaguely looks an EW possibility.

Looks like mostly the Handicaps at Southwell and Wolverhampton for me today - GL whatever you play.

Good timing TM....I thought that Chelms race was a truly run affair, and if that winner was in here it would be a lot shorter? Also enjoyed looking back at the To the Bar lto replay.....expected Scoobie and Shaggie to appear !!!!

Hi 37 - yeah - I think that was the evening at Southwell they eventually abandoned the last three races - the betting on the To The Bar race was classic:

4/9. 9/2, 7/1, 14/1, 20/1, 66/1, 80/1, 80/1, 150/1 - but couldn't post - forum fecked that day

I'm not crabbing Alphonse Karr (19:15) - it is surely the most likely winner - but something had to finish 2nd to the 1/7 fav LTO - it ran well and ran like it will improve for the extra furlong but Ahlawi allowed it to finish so close imo - hence I think maybe a little flattered.

Don't like the jockey (one little bit) - Trainer has a 7% strike rate overall and is just 5% with 2YO's on the AW (decent sample size - 2 wins from 44 runs). Like I say - it's the most likely winner and I don't have a strong view on what beats it today - but I wouldn't want odds-on.

I appreciate the stats TM, always very informative, just not convinced about your view on the Ahlawi race , as I think AK would have beaten it given another furlong (or a bit wiser).....I`ve already backed it at 1.97 avg and will look again later

Agree...and did say it was not thread related TM......always good to get other opinions (before the races) imo... I reckon we may just have seen the Chelt bumper winner also..they were 2 nice horses

Swerved the 17:45 - the betting says the fav has already won! - but moreover - I have no firm idea as to what gives it a race or finishes in the frame - too "lurky" for the Plaices imo.

Not sure that boosts the form for Elusive Treat (19:15) or not - the market hates Elusive Treat anyway.

I still think I would rather be on The Quiet Rebel (at a bigger price) to Place- than I would on the fav to win.

But I'm not really interested in betting anything at those kind of prices in this race (too "lurky" imo). So a swerve here - and will therefore roar your one home for you 37! GL.

Fav beat - Lurker wins at 33/1 ISP (65.00 BFSP) and another lurker (66/1 ISP) fills the frame -

My lurk radar has saved a couple of filthy stakes - but in all fairness the market was screaming that the 2nd & 3rd in the tissue weren't going to figure.

Another uneventful day on the Filthy Each Way front - dodged a few bullets (imo) as all of the "obvious" candidates ran unplaced or placed at best.

No Filthy Each Way Thread Bets:

Daily Thread Bet Total:  0.00
Running Thread Bet Total: + 14.23

Tomorrow looks even more grim (from a Filthy EW) perspective - it looks like the highlight of the day will actually be a load of old slow boats slogging through the mud for 3 miles at Ascot! GL all.

Nothing even remotely Filthy today - apart from the weather again. So no thread bets whatsoever. Thoughts on a couple of races that I ruled out:

For desperados the Long Walk Hurdle (very well named imo) is a non-handicap with (at time of writing) 8 runners and ironically is now sponsored by Porsche - I can only assume their marketing guys have a sense of humour and Lada turned it down! - previously sponsored by Marsh - which was surely much more appropriate (assuming the Bog Walking Society couldn't afford to sponsor it!). Given the going I thought I would rather be with Roksana & Main Fact (at the prices) as opposed to the obvious favs on form/ratings Thyme Hill & Paisley Park. According to the ratings Third Wind & Portrush Ted have no chance but I wouldn't rule them out from running above their prices on the going today. I probably won't play but wouldn't want to be on either of the top two (at the prices).

Also a non (thread) betting race is the 13:05 Newcastle - where I started out (last night) with strong intentions of place laying Archis Affaire at a short price (he was just 4/1 in the RP tissue). He was a decent horse with a decent record on the flat - but since going hurdling he has a history of breathing problems, blundering at his hurdles, losing shoes and bleeding from the nose/bursting blood vessels (apart from that he has been ok!). The reason I am sharing (I don't usually post up my intended Place Lays) is that looking at it again today more closely (and in the context that he is now double the tissue price) - I think I have changed my mind completely and I'm beginning to think a very speculative EW bet might actually be the order of the day. I can't quite bring myself to back a horse that has bled - but Everything has a price!

Anyway - just some thoughts - certainly no Filthy EW Thread Bets today and I will just be (hopefully) place laying my way through the AW cards. GL whatever you play on a grim looking day for Filth.

also backing Alvarino e/w, as I think the lurkers are disappearing

Carlsberg even  haha....it`s that long since i`ve had a pint (not that i,d drink that anyway)

Another fine example of why you will go skint backing shorties/favs in races like that -

I had another look when the Hughes fav went stupid short - but with about 8 lurkers - it's impossible be confident as to what to oppose it with EW.
Eventually the market gave the winner - but same as the short one you put up yesterday - no idea what beats it - but I KNOW you won't win money (long term) backing them. Hence the thread really - stick to filthy ew's imo.

I never ignore a O`Meara punt TM.....

Didn`t have time TM..it was very well executed.....hence the t/cast comment above

Hope you did well on the footie 37 - looked to me like every top team/fav in Europe (except Barcelona) won today. Some of them at huge prices (in play) from dubious positions - with very little time left on the clock.

No Filthy Each Way Thread Bets (yet again) today:

Daily Thread Bet Total:  0.00
Running Thread Bet Total: + 14.23

As usual every race on the Irish card looks a nice shape tomorrow - but I think I will mostly be focussing on the Handicaps at the last day of the Southwell Festival. The Maiden (14:45) also looks interesting with messrs Hughes & Kelly again teaming up to provide a short priced fav to (possibly) oppose with an EW selection.