>>> GETTING LIKE THE WORLD'S GREATEST POASTER NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

well played

I layed the fav in your race 1.5, as I do daily ,percentage of short priced favs was higher than normal  I made a loss on the day glwith your high liability lays.rememder you from reged lay comp

Going well so far and hoping for 4/4 today, although i'm taking a chance with the riskiest lay to date, and one that some may consider to be a good thing, but i'm not convinced.

7.45 Punchestown Getareason

As is often the case in a festival race, WPM is mob-handed, and looking at stable jockey bookings the favorite could be considered the better of them, although that's never a given as we all know. Runner up in a Punchestown P2P on debut last year (different ownership then) and well touted before his Downpatrick bumper race a month ago. He won by 4.25 L with the minimum of fuss, but it looked a very poor field, only a P2P win by the Elliott horse worth considering, there were only 5 runners and he was 4/6, so it was expected anyway. WPM may have wanted an easy introduction for the horse, although i'm surprised he chose such a low profile race at a course like Downpatrick if it's as good as some think, but maybe i'm reading too much into that.

Same sire as Getabird (a dual Grade 2 winner who was unplaced here on Tuesday) and now owned by Sullivan Bloodstock, as wonder mare Laurina is. Add the expensive purchase tag, the WPM band wagon and the possible potential, I feel the short odds are significantly influenced by these factors, it's obviously not on form, although i do appreciate he will obviously improve on that. 

There are several likeable types in the race, including Rio Viva (same ownership as the favourite) who created a good impression winning LTO, and 6 other runners with half decent winning form, not all trained by WPM. I think we can ignore the 2 rags. The one i like is Pat Fahys' Dunvegan who finished a 7.5L 2nd to Pallasator LTO (won easily) that has won a grade 2 since, and is favorite for the Grade 1 novice champion tomorrow. Pat won a bumper race here on Tuesday with an outsider (16/1).

Of course the horse is strongly fancied and could win hard held on the bridle, but considering i have several decent runners in with a good chance on my side, and bumper form at festivals often throws up an outsider (Cue Card at Cheltenham a typical example) i'm happy to lay at short odds that are based more on connections and potential than substance.

My target is 8/8 by month end when this thread will end, although that's not easy selecting lays of under 5/2 (my ball park limit) but even if the lay wins today, i will still be in profit and that's the ultimate goal.

Lay @ 2.80

Good luck all.

26-Apr-18
08:10:27    19:45 Punchestown
Getareason - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:123529954881 | Matched: 26-Apr-18 08:32:10    Lay    2.80    50.00    89.92
50.00
Matched

Castlebawn West and Duc Dallier now NR's, a pity as the former is a good one, but I will not change the lay.

Reduction factor 10% + 1.4% respectively.

Good luck SL.

Mini, a betting exchange needs those that think yes .... and those that think no.

It's all about opinions Good luck.

Thanks breadbrain

mouse you got to use your loaf in this game

too rite gents

Risky business today AIS, Very best of luck.

well done   Andrew..you know your oinons

this guy Andrew he gives a well balanced account and a reason on his lays

and his driver doesnt have a lump on when mrs sweden is about.

unusual today only 1 fav won so far gb

G .O .D.   B.L.E.S.S.  Y.O.U.  M.Y.   S.O.N

Thanks for the comments guys.

Gut, agreed, it is a risky lay (as i suggested in my earlier post) and stablemate Castlebawn West being withdrawn after I posted adds to the risk, it was in with a shout after all, and actually tipped up by Brenden Duke. Of course there is a 11.4% reduction factor that lessens the liability (my lay odds are now 2.52) but I would prefer to have the runner of course. Never mind, i'm still happy with the lay and you have to go with a gut feeling sometimes (no pun intended)

Willie, I would need a lot more than 8/8 to even be mentioned in the same sentence with Hugh Taylor.

Zipper, I know you only post horse race card numbers for lays, and i'm not having a pop, but if you have good reasoning for any type of bet, surely it's better to state your case. I'm also laying mine for hard cash (with other bets) and in doing so, it makes you think about the selection a litle more.

Mouse, Mrs 'Sweden' is not Ingerlish

been a good day laying 1.5

The lay machine keeps on rolling. wd.

wd

and the winner