Just a few minutes to the off but I'm having a late dutch on Phare Isle at 7.2 and Changeofluck at 13.5, cant see past these two here. Straight win bets and good luck.
In the 3.35 at Chepstow Sire Du Grugy attempts to give lumps of weight away for the first time since doing so over this course and distance in October 2013. He did it that day from a rating of 161 winning by 11 lengths that day, very easily it must be said. He has improved since then and now carries a rating of 172 and he faces some decent opponents today, decent enough to stop him winning this? I think not. SDG is well up to winning this and the current Betfair price of 2.44 seems very generous to me. Time to fill our boots.
In the first at Pontefract trading around 2.2 the favourite looks a lay to me. If this was over a longer distance then he may justify these cramped odds but over 10 furlongs, no thanks. Win lay.
The race she ran in the Coronation at Royal Ascot was a cracker and with a clear run Euro Charline would have been even closer at the finish than the length or so she was finally beaten. There is nothing of the calibre of Rizeena in this and the Marco Botti trained filly can gain just compensation here. Anyone lucky to get any of the 7/4 that Ladbrokes offered this morning about the 1,000 Guineas fifth placed horse will be smiling. This is without a doubt the bet of the flat season to date, currently at 2.28 on betfair.
Had Oak Bluffs been trained by someone else then other than Richard Fahey then he would surely be a much bigger price than his current 2.8 in the Place Market. Eased 3lb in the race by the handicapper for finishing within 6 lengths of Amenable last time out is a fair reaction as he was never in with a shout. The extra furlong today along with blinkers will have to work the oracle to get this one involved here with jockey on board with a less than 6% strike rate for the stable. Place Lay Oak Bluffs at 2.8.
In the upcoming race at Warwick has a sound chance. Back down to a Class 5 will suit and back down to 5 furlongs will also suit. The current price on Betfair of 6.6 looks damn fair to me. Go for it.
For just the second time on this blog I think a lay is in order. The horse in question is in the 3.10 at Linfgield where Olivers Mount at around 5.2 is a Lay and a place Lay at 2.2. He has been running consistently well of late but those have been poor races. Last time out the top weight was from a mark of 58 and the race before that which he won the top weight there was off a mark of just 55. This is much tougher this afternoon than either of those races with this race having a tope weight off a mark of 65 and the strength in depth here is greater also. Olivers Mount, win and place lay,
At Hamilton tonight an improving sort win and place is the bet. The Braveheart Listed Handicap at 7.35 is quite a competitive affair but the Mark Johnston trained Special Meaning should give us a run for our money. Last time out she won a Listed race at Goodwood in decent style over this distance and on this sort of going. She looks to be a filly on the up and although there are quite a few in this with a chance Special Meaning is the choice win and place, currently around 4.8 and 1.78 to place.
Tom George has had three winners from his last ten runners and a couple of placed efforts showing the stable to be in decent nick. In the 3.25 at Perth he has Couer De Fou, the gelding has yet to win a race over the larger obstacles from five attempts but has managed to be runner up three times. Only twice has he tackled this sort of distance the second time being after a 657 day lay off and the first time was over hurdles three years ago when he finished second over this course and distance, having watched his recent races especially his runners up effort last time out staying on beaten a head over the minimum then I cant see any reason why he wont stay this distance today. At 2.52 in the place market its a bet for me.