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Andrews' Daily Nap Lay
Andrews' Daily Nap Lay
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SL, if the price of any horse is higher than you're comfortable with to lay, you should always leave it, and i understand. From my side, it's not so much a confident lay of Melon, but more a confidence in Samcro, the more likely winner, I hope that makes sense. If the favourite falls, then Melon is way odds on to win.
I think Melon will trade shorter near race time, probably around the 3.9/4.0, he was matched at 3.20 early this morning, but however much punters are confident, Samco is not a certainty. Good luck with Crystal Ocean, but not too much as i've backed it  |
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No lay on the varian one 3/1 too big.
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That should blow the cobwebs off for a successful season.
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C.O
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Well done to both of us Mwtt, he stayed on really well, although that was expected, but i thought the 2nd was going to go past.
He will win better races in future. |
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Yes, he could be very useful around 1½m this season.
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Well done Andrew on crystal ocean maybe next month you could do a back and a lay a day for favourites good luck with the lay later today
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Thats why I'm useless at laying
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If only Stoutey had left a little bit more to work on for today
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Unlucky mouse and SL, don't lose the faith, it was a risky lay, but a short price, so think of it as a short term loan to Betfair
Thanks Kev, i don't know if i will continue the thread next month, it was only a 'fun' project albeit with financial involvement for a 8 day period anyway, with a target of 8/8. My profession is not on here anyway, but i'm convalescing at home after illness (not serious) so have a lot of time on my hands at the moment. I don't normally post so often. |
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AIS
 Good luck with Melon lay hoping this thread makes 8/8. |
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Good luck with Melon lay Andrew.
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Thanks Mwtt and SL,
Min a NR now, reduction factor 4.2% |
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6 from 9 races none handicap won by fav ,higher than average today
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Andrew,dare say u will be crowing shortly
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8/10 seems a very fair price on samcro
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 The gift that gives, what a farce. |
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blimey, wd
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Bet you didn't expect that. Well done again Andrew
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WD,but that’s racing for u.
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Wd AIS not how you like to win but they all count.
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5/5 but sad circumstances. Hope both horses got up.
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From my side, it's not so much a confident lay of Melon, but more a confidence in Samcro, the more likely winner, I hope that makes sense. If the favourite falls, then Melon is way odds on to win.
What odds both to fall ?  |
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DEADBRAIN..did well...didnt he do well
G O. D. B. L. E. S. S. Y O U. M. Y. S. O. N |
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You have to take them Andrew cause as sure as eggs are eggs things can go against you
Great stuff again |
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Thanks guys. Correct Ghost, a winner is inevitable of course, but hopefully i can reach my target of 8/8, 3 more days to go.
Incredible scenes ! In a total of 15 races, neither horse had fallen before, yet today, not only did they fall in the same race, but at the same hurdle What odds would PP have given on that ? I hear Lads were going 20/1, max bet a tenner. Did I get lucky, or would Samcro have won cosily as I thought pre-race, we will never know. Another successful lay, but to be honest i wish both horses had not fallen so we would have seen just how good (or otherwise) Samcro really is. Never mind, the important thing is both horses and jockeys are fine. Melon unplaced (fell) @11/4 Daily profit £50 Running total proft (5/5) £250 Another lay tomorrow |
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Staying in the Emerald Isle for todays' lay, yet another WPM runner, it seems as though every horse in his stable has run at Punchestown this week.
5.25 Punchestown Mr Adjudicator Not for the first time WPM is mob-handed in this race, a 9 runner field between Irelands' top 2 trainers, including 4 that ran in the Triumph hurdle at Cheltenham. Stormy Island was touted and well backed from 13/2 into 9/2 for the race, but fell at the last, albeit held at the time. In his previous race he had won by an astonishing 58L, and whatever you make of that form, i wouldn't rule him out here and Punchestown will suit him better. Paul Townend is on Mr Adjudicator from WPM's 6 runners, so i assume he's the considered the better of them, but it's never a given. Farclas won the Triumph beating Mr Adjudicator by 1.75L, reversing form in their previous race when the latter beat him by 1.25L, so there's not much to chose betwen them. Farclas travelled well in the Triumph, held up in mid-field with Mr Adjudicator at the rear. After jumping the 2nd last Farclas started to make a move, and in my opinion was travelling the best, but coming off the final bend the field came across to the near side rail (for better ground) and he was trapped behind a couple of horses, with Sayo and MA on his outer. Although he wasn't hampered significantly, his momemtum was temporarily halted and it allowed MA to get first run. Farclas and MA had to come between horses, but the gap was much bigger for the latter. These 2 started to pull away from Stormy Island (who subsequently fell) and it was a good duel on the run in, but Farclas stayed on the better and was going away at the finish. If i had to back a horse in the race, it would definitely be the lightly raced Farclas, who i feel is improving and could develop into a decent hurdler next year, although it wouldn't surprise me if Stormy Island makes all and has them burnt off by the last. In any event I expect Farclas to finish in front of Mr Adjudicator, hence the lay. Good luck all. Lay @ 3.65 28-Apr-18 07:05:07 16:25 Punchestown Mr Adjudicator - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:123726149179 | Matched: 28-Apr-18 07:12:06 Lay 3.65 50.00 137.50 50.00 Matched |
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I did fancy another runner from WPM, Benie Des Dieux in the Mares as i feel Apples Jade looks good, but has to put a poor run behind him LTO (finshed 3rd to BDD).
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# Behind her
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I did fancy another runner from WPM, Benie Des Dieux in the Mares
As a lay |
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it's running at 4.25
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4.25 top 7 in the betting are trained by guess who ... mullins ..elliot .. looks a walk
over my guees farclas.... why it the best |
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Oops correct sweetnsour, i'm an hour ahead of UK/Ireland and was going by the local times that betfair use in the horse racing markets.
Thanks for pointing it out  |
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Andrew another good write up....
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Good luck with the lay AIS brilliant write up and agree with you if I had a bet in race would back Farclas, I've took the 6/5 with coral and backed Top Notch, was disappointing last run but hit first fence and never got into a rhythm and if it can bounce back to it's previous form should win this race, only fear is could be over the top for the season as don't seem to win this time of the year but will have to take that chance.
GL all. |
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Mwtt, I think Top Notch has a good chance today, not only on form, but on quality of the opposition. Double Shuffle is 3lb better off for a 8L beating by TN, but it could have been doubled. Oddly enough DS is rated 4lb in front of TN. Alcala needs to improve, but could of course. Art Mauresque is in with a shout, but I can't see OO Seven or Sadlers winning at all. I wouldn't be concerned about TN being over the top, he missed Cheltenham and Aintree, and looks the more likely winner.
The same owners have 2 in the select hurdle (4.05) so Daryl Jacob could have a double. Good luck. |
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Thanks by the way
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Fascinating thread and Wd. I lay differently to £40 odd profit a day so haven't been going with yours. Hope you reach the target.
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2 x NR's, reduction factor 2.7%
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