i put it up last night in 1 of 4 and took it down this morning Nellie

that run was there in the book, very unlucky last time

but my methodolodgy failed on placement, was hoping another target in near future not today

got to take it on the chin

Just about put yesterday's disappointment behind me, The usual carpet bombing MJ raid for a saturday across the cards with 17 turf runners.

Ordinal should appreciate the drop in trip to 7f in the 1:40 Musselburgh, did little wrong at Carlisle and looked to be outstayed over the mile.Could be more to come but nowhere to go for me with regards price so i'm happy to pass.I've struggled to get a grip on Freight Train (3:40 Doncaster), initially I thought it needed a trip like today's thinking it was just getting outpaced and certainly the pedigree hints this may well be the case.It travels quite keenly in it's races so the obvious concern has to be whether it will actually get home over this 12f despite it's breeding hinting it's a strong possibility, again have decided to pass.Rythmical in the 4:55 Musselburgh looks like this trip is much more suitable today, a strange effort at HQ 2 runs back behind the well handicapped indira, perhaps advantageous not to get too close to that rival that evening.Last time blinkers applied but just didn't look to have the pace to get involved over the trip.I must admit i'm not too enamoured when MJ reaches for the blinkers with these older handicappers and again at the price happy enough to pass.

Certainly would not be surprised to see any of these win but Freight Train just niggles me now and the other 2 are just not screaming back me at the prices.

Yorkidding put in an interesting effort last time at chester. A bit like yesterday's winner I let slip through (Kings Pavilion),It was an eye catcher coming from off the pace at chester never having a chance of winning from it's position.Like yesterday's winner too it stays further than today's trip (a real plus round here imo down the long straight) and has form with cut so you'd hope conditions will be ok.KP yesterday was also trying to win a class 2 for the first time with the last success being a class 4 contest.The main difference between these 2 horses is that KP yesterday had plenty of very good efforts (and recent) in class 2 races whereas Yorkidding has in the past struggled in the grade. Perhaps yorkidding is developing a bit later, my niggle is that MJ's winners in this grade do not usually take so many efforts and running off  88 in a 90 ceiling race again would have suited better than this increased 100 ceiling today.All other placement stats are positive so the question is whether 7, 8/1 is a price to get involved in here with my doubts about the company possibly being a bit too hot.After yesterday's internal kerfuffle I think I'd rather play this today, I'm sure the horse will win a race soon if not today so I will get a chance to recoup.

The other one of interest to me today is Huntlaw, a wide trip and stickier ground last time at haydock never really saw it looking content in the race at any stage.Completely chalk and cheese from it’s previous mdn win over today’s CD on a faster surface.I’m still struggling to see why it’s flattered in anyway by that mdn win which initially looks to have worked out well, it had less experience than the horses it beat and what they have done since does not make a mark of 78 look at all harsh here.Of course there is a godolphin horse here that’s looking a clear favourite in the market off of 87 after an apparent surprise but decent looking maiden win.For me Huntlaw has to be given another chance back to these conditions today, i thought it could easily be a mid 80’s animal after that slightly green and slightly over racing mdn success.Always a worry when the next run is so flat but as long as it doesn’t try and hook up with likely leader and stablemate Miniaturist (that would be suicide) it should be able to settle and hopefully pick up to run a big race at a fair price.Miniaturist is sure to find a race soon as it only buckled late at leicester but i'm hoping it doesn't quite have the class of it's stable chum.

Anyway the 2 plays today...

2:15 Musselburgh: Huntlaw, current price 9.0

5:15 Epsom: Yorkidding, current price 8.4

Cheers and Gl today fatlad

Ordinal actually drifted to a decent price 3/1 on here

That was just strange

miniaturist nowhere near making the running, huntlaw very disappointing again no excuses here.

date	course	class	selection	BFSP	pos	rnrs	dist	rce rtrn	tot rtrn	staked	ROI
24/04/2016	Musselburgh	5	Huntlaw	6.49	1	6	nk	£52.16	£52.16	£10.00	521.55%
27/04/2016	Pontefract	3	Deodoro	4.86	4	5	12.5l	-£10.00	£42.16	£20.00	210.78%
27/04/2016	Brighton	5	Aleko	4.78	2	6	sh hd	-£10.00	£32.16	£30.00	107.18%
02/05/2016	Beverley	5	Ravenhoe	6.29	9	12	11.5l	-£10.00	£22.16	£40.00	55.39%
02/05/2016	Beverley	4	Freight Train	8.97	4	10	3.75l	-£10.00	£12.16	£50.00	24.31%
07/05/2016	Haydock	3	Bathos	12.66	6	12	5.25l	-£10.00	£2.16	£60.00	3.59%
10/05/2016	Beverley	5	Autumn Blossom	7.20	9	10	13.5l	-£10.00	-£7.85	£70.00	-11.21%
10/05/2016	Beverley	6	Scarpeta	2.47	1	11	0.75l	£13.97	£6.12	£80.00	7.65%
10/05/2016	Chepstow	6	Regal Monarch	4.43	1	11	1.25l	£32.59	£38.71	£90.00	43.01%
13/05/2016	York	4	Second Serve	7.81	2	12	0.75l	-£10.00	£28.71	£100.00	28.71%
18/05/2016	Ayr	4	Book Of Poetry	5.75	6	6	22l	-£10.00	£18.71	£110.00	17.00%
18/05/2016	Bath	4	Mistime	9.89	3	9	4.5l	-£10.00	£8.71	£120.00	7.25%
19/05/2016	Goodwood	4	Bathos	9.60	1	10	0.5l	£81.70	£90.41	£130.00	69.54%
19/05/2016	Goodwood	1	Dessertoflife	12.65	8	9	24l	-£10.00	£80.41	£140.00	57.43%
19/05/2016	Sandown	3	New Caledonia	5.48	4	6	2.25l	-£10.00	£70.41	£150.00	46.94%
27/05/2016	Haydock	4	[color=blac****law[/color]	12.47	11	13	7.75l	-£10.00	£60.41	£160.00	37.75%
28/05/2016	Chester	3	Zand	13.52	11	12	12.5l	-£10.00	£50.41	£170.00	29.65%
28/05/2016	Chester	4	Four Mile Beach	22.20	8	8	21l	-£10.00	£40.41	£180.00	22.45%
03/06/2016	Epsom	2	Master Of Finance	12.78	10	10	17l	-£10.00	£30.41	£190.00	16.00%
03/06/2016	Catterick	4	Hawatif	3.07	3	6	0.5l	-£10.00	£20.41	£200.00	10.20%
03/06/2016	Goodwood	5	Montataire	3.90	4	9	3.25l	-£10.00	£10.41	£210.00	4.95%
04/06/2016	Musselburgh	3	[color=blac****law[/color]	8.61	8	11	9l	-£10.00	£0.41	£220.00	0.18%
04/06/2016	Epsom	2	Yorkidding	8.59	16	17	75l	-£10.00	-£9.60	£230.00	-4.17%

Another frustrating week in terms of number of selections and their performance, topped off last night by a likely class 6 candidate sluicing up at newcastle (which already looks like another southwell for this yard).

It's seemed like a famine so far this season on the turf for the 3yo's and over.I was thinking it's not as though i'm letting a lot of winners slip through, admittedly did pass on a 12.45 winner on friday which has not helped my cause but it's in general been very slow going.

Over all this turf season the yard has a poor value of 0.65 actual versus expected winners, this should be around 0.85 for all turf races and is the worst since 2006 as is the current tally of 27 winners.

I am mainly focussing on the 3yo+ horses here, the actual v expected with these is even worse at 0.61. 15 winners in this group to this stage of the season is the worst in my database going back to 2003, 25-34 winners would cover every other season bar 2006.

Interestingly the real 'sweet spot' of runners I like to play (class 5 and 6's) have actually performed well, it's just that there has been a real shortage of opportunities in this group so far.From only 32 runners MJ has sent out 7 winners (actual/expected 1.06). I have had 6 goes at this group and managed 3 wins. To add some sort of perspective by this stage of the season you'd usually expect to have seen 70-90 runners from these classes.

All in all drought conditions have prevailed, it does feel like storm chasing in fair weather!

The trouble with selecting one trainer is when they are not performing to a normally expected level you are not likely to do well.The facts have backed up what i was feeling about the start to this turf season. MJ's runners are under performing, however erratic you may think he is, you can usually be confident the actual/expected returns are not going to be at the current level.

There is no way i can be totally confident things will improve, any given trainer can have a poor one, to me it just looks like the 2yo's have had more prominence than usual and the normal bread and butter lower class older horses have taken a back seat, again this would be backed up by fact.

In reality I am one crossed out winner away from a decent return over all and i also feel i have been pushing things a bit out of my comfort zone regards a lot of the recent class races selected.As I go up the classes i am relying more on big prices among significant losing runs.Some of his runners were shocking last week but i am fully aware plenty will be totally stuff, that's just the nature of the beast.

If and when the 3yo+ lower classes kick in to form as per normal and i'm not getting in the winners, that's the time i'd be concerned.

Thanks for the concern but I know what i am doing here.

Your knowledge and discipline will definitely see you through striding as you say one winner away from good returns and alot of his are running no races at all for whatever reason (I still maintain I would struggle to make a profit on a thread like this). Things will pick up for sure hopefully tomorrow for my sake I like one of his at Ponty you can do the write up for me tomorrow

Rigsby I don't know about the 2 yards thing, All i know is the form in general has been significantly down on what you would usually expect and that the lower class subset number of runners have been greatly lacking so far.I obviously hope both of these factors revert to a more normal state, this trainer will undoubtedly have a few long spells where nothing much is happening and plenty look to be running stinkers then 5 mins later can go on a real hot streak.There hasn't really been what i'd class as one of these hot streaks yet.He's had some decent 2yo's but most of these have struck early and been found out when really tested, I may be wrong that it's just a case of higher than normal priority with the 2yo's and normal service will be resumed, time will tell.

I have studies this trainer in depth for the past 3 seasons and I think there are a number of profitable angles, he's far from this random arrow slinger that some have him down for but The bread and butter for me is definitely the lower grades.Repeated behaviours for the length of my data base(2003) has given a strong significance that there is actually method in the apparent madness.

yes ,thats exactly what i am saying ,you are putting up selections that are running like drains ,offering excuses and rambling about being a crossed out selection away from this or that.If this ends in tears  it wont be your fault imo .
Thats why i asked at what point would you reconsider/reassess you sel process/citeria ?

is it 20/30/40 50 or more ....tia

not nick picking and respect you as a tipsterer or i would not be responding ,just giving you a wee poke .

take it easy the winners will come but was being somewhat serious asking at what point do you change tack .

would be good if you covered a couple of stables for some sort of comparision but its your fred and your choice ,cheers and gl .

Fatlad I take it you were probably referring to the pontefract 3yo hcp tomorrow night?

Firstly i have to say i am never confident when there are 2 runners in the race, it's one thing playing a big field with long shots but a small hcp like this, i've seen too many occasions like this...


Track: Pontefract    Date: 4th Oct 2010    Time: 15:10:00    Prize (winner): £6231
Race Name: Racing UK On Sky Channel 432 Handicap     Runners: 5
Going: Soft    Distance: 1m     Class: Class 3     Age Restrictions: 3yo   
Race Completion Time: 1 mins 48.4s  Avg Official Rating: 84
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Place    Dist Bt    Stall    Horse    Age    Weight    Headgear    OR    Trainer    Odds    Jockey (Claim)
1st        3    Al Farahidi (USA)    3    9-7        88    Johnston, M    16/1    Fairley, Greg
2nd    2    9    Sand Skier    3    9-7        88    Johnston, M    5/4 (Fav)    Sousa, Silvestre De
3rd    3    5    Barren Brook    3    9-2        83    Easterby, M W    9/1    Makin, Phillip
4th    1.75    2    Gojeri (IRE)    3    9-0        81    Jarvis, M A    15/8    Robinson, Philip
5th    7    1    Shes A Character    3    8-13        80    Fahey, R A    7/1    Hanagan, Paul

Franny's mount scores higher here mainly with the fact of it having the win sent to this track as a 3yo for the first time and it racing in the same class as lto.My gut feeling would be that Franny's would be expected more with these jockey but i wouldn't nail my colours to that mast.His mount Renfrew Street does not have what i would call a typical sire for this step up in distance as a 3yo but the beverley win over that CD so early at 2 usually suggests this sort of trip is well within range at 3.

Kingscote is down to ride Rosamaria who on paper should have potential to progress going this distance and further this term, I would be a bit concerned that the last run at 2 and the seasonal return at 3 has seen this horse run a bit free especially now with the increase in trip.It's a nice looking type and can certainly win races at this sort of level if she learns to be more efficient with energy usage.

Yes little doubt about the trip being an issue as said he gets plenty of beverley winners over that CD that end up 1m4f+ horses in time.

I do hate watching these races with more than one entry though, it feels like a game of russian roulette

@fatlad @striding

Why don't you just dutch 'em at circa 3.5 the pair? 2 chances with only 8 runners

On my ratings and visually having watched back Rosamaria earlier, Renfrew street is the pick. It's just not a comfortable feeling for me when he has 2 even if i don't really fancy the other one.

I was rather thinking that i'm going to drop back to class 5's and 6's only for a while but on my rating i should be playing this.

3's tops now
Hope you got a bit on before the collapse

3/1 looks ok at the moment Fatlad

Not happy tbh this being an sp thread, not the type of price now i'd be looking at in a hcp this profile

snap

WD both