Are you on Freight Train Striding? Dolphin Rock a non runner

Meant to say i decided not to select teofonic.

would have expected some support, yards runners usually easy to find in market in these races here

Today’s runners...

2:10 Haydock Il Sicario: Didn’t really show too many signs of an impending leap forward to me on it’s debut at Leicester over the minimum.Up to 6f here today but this placement at haydock for this type does not inspire confidence and there are plenty of well bred likelier types in this imo.

2:20 Brighton Ortano: Plenty green enough on debut in race which today’s favourite Monks Stand was runner up and this horse after not getting a run at brighton duly obliged to take care of MJ’s Poets Society whom easily made all at Newcastle yesterday.The favourites form looks to have  plenty of substance and on profiling and looking at this field i think it’s really up against it today.

2:50 Brighton Highly Sprung: A bit surprised this one doesn’t score higher on my rating’s, on paper a 3yo  coming down the ratings that loves rattling ground. It did however take a few goes to land a mdn that hasn’t really worked out to any depth and it’s not a 3yo that looks to have scope distance wise to improve like many of the yard’s.The  classified placement  last time has not been a strong signal, though the return to it’s winning trip looks an obvious positive.Could bounce back these conditions but it doesn’t tick enough boxes for me.

7:30 Yalta: Made an encouraging debut at Goodwood but i’m never going to be looking at anything at this sort of price, i actually think it’s plenty short enough  here.

5:10 Haydock Huntlaw: The thread opened up with this horse winning on it’s return to action as a 3yo after a sole green effort at 2. The Musselburgh win which saw it race with much exuberance on the front end was crabbed by many thinking Fallon was caught out as his mount travelled up going well but didn’t find as much as expected. MJ’s could easily have dropped away the way it had raced but the field behind was pretty strung out and the horse kept galloping to get back up near the post.The 2 horses line up here again after amazement winning it’s mdn nto and the 3rd in the Musselburgh race tawdea has also franked the form winning it’s mdn and following up in a hcp now rated 91.

Huntlaw bounced along (a tad too much to be efficient imo) on the fast ground and still looked like it was a tad green around the bends, it’s had only 2 races and has every chance of improving as a 3yo. There are 2 concerns today, firstly this track is a bit like York for this yard in that plenty that look decent on paper just don’t seem to suit the place or be near their best on the day. The 2nd one which may prove decisive is the slower ground, this horse like so many of the yard’s relished the fast conditions lto and it’s ability to show the same vigour on softer has to be a doubt.

He is due to race off 4lb higher in future as the Musselburgh race has worked out so well and despite the concerns mentioned I’m happy to give it a chance here, If it doesn’t go well today i certainly wouldn’t be writing him off for the remainder of the season.

Current price 8.4

The usual pulling out hair job on a saturday sifting through all the runners...

I wish the yard all the best possible success with the 2yo's but as is often the case, i just don't have any angles in these class races at the prices against similarly unexposed types from usual big hitting juvenile yards.

The real tantalizing one of the day is a horse i've had on the radar fro a while zand in the 3:25 at chester. I have no doubt it is up to this class of race and is now feasibly rated in such a contest, today's trip and even a bit further look very likely to be right up it's street now but then you get to the draw and it's drawn 10 of 12.The amount of times i've kidded myself that it's going to be alright over the longer trips round here and nearly always you just don't get an advantageous run.

I'm not sure the new mark will stop surewecan who has put together 3 consistent runs now, this horse was a much higher rated 2yo and it's dangerous to assume there is not more to come, however if zand's draw at chester is frustrating, the car park draw here in 13 for a horse that can miss the kick a bit and need driving to get prominent looks to be a massive disadvantage.Could be one to keep an eye on if the draw floors it today, i'm not convinced it's spell of form is over just yet.

Donna Graciosa looks potentially very well placed back here over a CD that's seen previous success. She won in the class, loves the fast ground and has flopped on soft both times so the last run can be forgiven. We know MJ loves getting winners at this track and the recent soft ground flops along with a run over 2m on the aw have seen the rating drop to just 1lb above her last win. The opposition has a number of higher rated dark runners and another concern is that unlike a lot of MJ's this horse does not usually lead and can be a bit free, there is no obvious pace here so it could either be a messy slow run affair or DG may just be forced into trying to make it and run with the choke out.

The 4:35 chester race is interesting, another runner i have been tracking Four Mile Beach gets an increase in trip that looks extremely likely to suit well, going into hcp company on the back of 4 consistent maiden runs.MJ has done well with dalakhani's and whatever happens today this is one to keep tabs on. I selected the stable mate at york,Second Serve,this one ran it's heart out only to get collared close home after a bold front run. Second Serve has gone up 4lbs for that and wouldn't be the greatest surprise to see it run another good race but at the prices I like Franny's mount, i would imagine Egan will try and make the running again and hopefully Franny's will be good enough to track through for a late closing effort.

After much deliberation this morning...

3:25 Chester: Zand current price 14.0, if the draw scuppers it i'm sure there will be another day i can't let this runner i've been tracking through just in case.

4:35 Chester: Four Mile Beach


I've passed on Donna Graciosa and this could well leave me with egg on the face

I like Zand too, ran 12 days ago also on an oval trak finishing 2nd by a neck. Franny Norton on board when I'm sure he had the choice with the other shorter priced Johnston runner in the race. Worried about the draw too, but the horse has started the season pretty well.

I've decided against backing it. Last run 12 days ago was in Switzerland so I feel this may be too soon. Also from my notes when I was following the horse last year it's best form before coming over here in France was with cut in the ground. Also possibly favouring right handed tracks. I still believe it will be a big price winner of a big race, just not today

gl

i keep meaning to collect some data of when SDS is riding something different in the race, will start doing this soon.

I would really like to see Zand try further, maybe even 2 miles.

POOR all round

MJ plenty of short enough runners in market today all beat

my 2 longer prices never at the races

just 3 selections this week all stuffed

3yo's must start improving june-august or he's going to have a poor season.

date	course	selection	BFSP	pos	rnrs	dist	rce rtrn	tot rtrn	staked	ROI
24/04/2016	Musselburgh	Huntlaw	6.49	1	6	nk	£52.16	£52.16	£10.00	521.55%
27/04/2016	Pontefract	Deodoro	4.86	4	5	12.5l	-£10.00	£42.16	£20.00	210.78%
27/04/2016	Brighton	Aleko	4.78	2	6	sh hd	-£10.00	£32.16	£30.00	107.18%
02/05/2016	Beverley	Ravenhoe	6.29	9	12	11.5l	-£10.00	£22.16	£40.00	55.39%
02/05/2016	Beverley	Freight Train	8.97	4	10	3.75l	-£10.00	£12.16	£50.00	24.31%
07/05/2016	Haydock	Bathos	12.66	6	12	5.25l	-£10.00	£2.16	£60.00	3.59%
10/05/2016	Beverley	Autumn Blossom	7.20	9	10	13.5l	-£10.00	-£7.85	£70.00	-11.21%
10/05/2016	Beverley	Scarpeta	2.47	1	11	0.75l	£13.97	£6.12	£80.00	7.65%
10/05/2016	Chepstow	Regal Monarch	4.43	1	11	1.25l	£32.59	£38.71	£90.00	43.01%
13/05/2016	York	Second Serve	7.81	2	12	0.75l	-£10.00	£28.71	£100.00	28.71%
18/05/2016	Ayr	Book Of Poetry	5.75	6	6	22l	-£10.00	£18.71	£110.00	17.00%
18/05/2016	Bath	Mistime	9.89	3	9	4.5l	-£10.00	£8.71	£120.00	7.25%
19/05/2016	Goodwood	Bathos	9.60	1	10	0.5l	£81.70	£90.41	£130.00	69.54%
19/05/2016	Goodwood	Dessertoflife	12.65	8	9	24l	-£10.00	£80.41	£140.00	57.43%
19/05/2016	Sandown	New Caledonia	5.48	4	6	2.25l	-£10.00	£70.41	£150.00	46.94%
27/05/2016	Haydock	[color=blac****law[/color]	12.47	11	13	7.75l	-£10.00	£60.41	£160.00	37.75%
28/05/2016	Chester	Zand	13.52	11	12	12.5l	-£10.00	£50.41	£170.00	29.65%
28/05/2016	Chester	Four Mile Beach	22.20	8	8	21l	-£10.00	£40.41	£180.00	22.45%

No runners today

Revolutionist

I'm with you on Master of Finance, it looks the stand out bet for me. I think the blinkers going back on last time really made the difference. He had previously never ran a good race on good to firm ground, so if you take that into account that 2nd was a career best effort. Blinkers stay on and the going should have more cut tomorrow. SDS on board too. I would be disappointed if he didn't at least place.

Fire fighting always gives a good showing, but is still maybe carrying too much here, could place as he always seems to run his race, but will surly find a couple too good here. Sennockian star doesnt seem to be the horse he was, but if he finds a bit of form he is more than good enough to win this. Hopefully they arent chasing this prize and he'll be winning at goodwood. Might have a tiny saver on him if some money comes for him though.

Was a bit gutted when runner up against revolutionist that day as i stated on here i would have backed it without that well supported stablemate in the race, was obviously up against it on them terms that day as things have worked out since, would be nice to see it get a bit of compensation tomorrow.

After some deliberation have decided to drop kings Pavilion.I'm sure this horse is near ready to win but i'm just not happy with the profile stats of this placement,it just scores very low and this thread for me was about using such methods to find winners.If I pay a heavy price here then so be it, I have to draw a line somewhere.

Montataire was a take or leave at the price a shade over 2/1 have decided to keep it.

Today's final selections...

2:35 Epsom: Master Of Finance , current price  8.4

3:35 Catterick: Hawatif , current price 4.8

6:50 Goodwood: Montataire, current price 3.1


A real lack of the bread and butter stuff for me in recent weeks, 2yo's still been very much to the fore (you would expect it this time of year but a stark contrast this year more so than usual on turf anyhow).

The class 5 and 6 older horses on turf only been coming out in dribs and drabs so far, things should pick up on that score this month.

Should be back for the evening stuff later, gl everyone punting today.

Lot of money for Dark Red, MoF drifting, FF taken a bit of money. Still on MoF, GL

Not the conditions to back anything confidently. All 3 MJ runners were pretty poor

Why have I got a horrible feeling the Kings Pavilion exclusion is going to kick me flush in the nuts

OH fcuk that's painful

excruciating

thats mj for you