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for the new year (2)
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Bet for day 18. 1pt E.W. Ballyfoy 14.35 Newbury 20-1 WH & Lads BOG... write up to follow....
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The most competitive race of the day without a doubt is Newbury’s 14.35, and the horse I’m a little surprised to see as big as 20-1 is the Gary Moore trained Ballyfoy, ridden by son Jamie.
Although this horse is now an 11yrold, 24 life time starts under both rules and P2P is hardly an exhausting amount, and in the twilight of his career has Imo found his way into just the type of yard to get a race out of him. Whether that race is tomorrow remains to be seen, however picking through some old traits he has got a habit of popping up in January, one of which was over C/D. Lto was his first for the yard, and made his debut for the stable in first time cheek pieces, which Imo did help him travel. That run was in the Southern National at Fontwell, and considering he would definitely have needed the run did extremely well to finish the race, albeit as last of the only 6 to finish. He was in fact still travelling fairly comfortably before turning in, within hailing distance of the front runners, only to see his fitness give up on the run in and Jamie Moore all but get off and carry him over the line. Connections have given him plenty of time to get over those excretions, which at the time would most certainly have taken their toll, and I’m fairly sure he will want nothing for fitness in tomorrow’s contest. The other positive regarding his chance is the distance, with previous connections campaigning him over extreme trips, which Imo has never really convinced, and current connections waste no time in reverting back to 3 miles tomorrow. The last time he contested the distance was January 2010, which incidentally was the last winning form he had on a mark of 129, and due to some recent leniency from the assessor can race a full 7lbs lower than that mark tomorrow. I also have a feeling that it will ride softer than the f/cast G/soft going, and although he seems fairly adaptable regards the ground, a softer surface would enhance his chance. There is plenty to like about his chances tomorrow, and although he looks an unconsidered 20-1 shot, he has a habit of surprising at big odds, and may do so again tomorrow all things considered. |
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unlucky today robster and good luck with tomorrow :)
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Good look rob, hopefully he gets over those excretions.
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Final bet(s) for day 18. 1pt E.W. Ring Bo Ree 13.10 Southwell 9-1 Whill + 1/2 pt E.W. double with Ballyfoy @ B365 8's+18's both BOG... write up to follow...
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The 13.10 at Southwell, where recent winner Corkage and Lto winner Ballyoliver are dominating the betting, and without a doubt have the potential to be a fair way better than their current respective marks. However the Tom George trained Ring Bo Ree is also Imo on a very interesting mark, and at over 3 times the price of those formerly mentioned may be the value in this trappy little heat.
Ring Bo Ree has obviously had more than his fair share of problems over the years, and for whatever reasons Tom George has only recently sent him on a chasing campaign. After starting his current season off with a spin over hurdles in October at Carlisle off the back of a 460 day lay off, he was turned out approximately a month later to contest a novice chase handicapat Newbury, where although he looked far from a natural jumper of fences made a relatively pleasing bow, giving the impression he did posses potential to improve for the experience. He then took in another novice handicap, again at Newbury on New years eve, and although his jumping still lacked fluency, Paddy Brennan’s patient tactics were possibly on the verge of baring fruits, only for Ring Bo Ree to get rid of him 2 out when joining in at the head of affairs, with still a serious question to be asked up to that point. Tomorrow he drops back a few furlongs in trip, which arguably may help his cause further, and Imo Southwells fences may prove less demanding than Newburys, but again that’s also debatable. Tomorrows ground also looks to be within his remit, and it’s worth noting that Paddy Brennan rides Southwell fairly well, particularly in the last 12 months were he has a 35% strike rate from his 14 rides. |
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Result day 17.
Catch The Rascal Un Pl -4pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 215 1/4pts The gamble well and truly landed with Malin Head, kicking myself somewhat for not being involved, well done to those involved... especially at the double figured prices |
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Ballyfoy in to as low as 8/1 now.You obviously have an impact on the market these days Rob !
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W/d again Rob, where did Ballyfoy run on from?! I'm sure he was miles behind the 4th when the first 3 crossed the line (was watching without commentry though)
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blade I've been to work and have only just watched the replay's, when they went out of shot turning in for home Ballyfoy did have a lot on, maybe he does need a distance after all. Ring Bo Ree also ran a respectable race behind a nicely handicapped horse, possibly need's stepping up in trip Imo.
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Good shout on the place for Ballyfoy Rob, went in on the place only market this morning.
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Not for me( ew betting). But you are certainly reaping the benefits so far this month ! Wd.
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I think Ballyfoy would get away with the 3 miles if the ground was softer. Just found things happening a bit too quickly today though.
Keep up the good work. |
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yep when you and the fruit of my loins come up with the same horse i want to be on.
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fruit of my loins
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Rob Well done not an EW backer myself Perhaps a rethink. Slowly growing the bank is the answer
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Rob Well done not an EW backer myself Perhaps a rethink. Slowly growing the bank is the answer
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Another cracker Rob, you can't arrf pick em. Well done mate. You could teach a few so called pro's a thing or two.
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Bet for day 19. 5pts win Carrickmines 4.40 Ludlow 2-1 PP & B365 BOG... write up to follow.....
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14.40 ^^^^^
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I do admit to having a soft spot for this grand old horse, having backed him a few times throughout his career, he has seldom let me down as a punter. Tomorrow my head is most definitely ruling my heart, as at 2-1 against the opposition in tomorrow’s line up, Imo he is massive.
He was my only 5pt bet all last year when he duly obliging at Taunton early December, and that day I also thought the 2’s on offer to be to big, which proved to be the case. I thought at the time running off a mark about 2 stone inferior to his chase mark was too good to be true, especially considering his unlucky running prior to that success. He then went to Ascot over hurdles, where in truth at the weights did not have a cat in hells chance with the 2 up and coming young guns who filled the first 2 positions, but ran a super race to finish as close as he did in 3rd. Just when you thought his run in that sphere was over he backed that good effort up by taking the scalp of a field full of potential, and in doing so possibly took his hurdle mark up approximately 18-20lbs in 4 runs. Tomorrow he is back over a C/D he is 2 from 2 over, and seems to be suited to the 3 mile trip, winning 4 out of 7 over the distance. He is adaptable to ground, nd has won from good through to heavy, looking at ease on any surface he contests. You can take the view he was either supremely well handicapped over hurdles, or has simply improved about 20lbs?? It would of course be foolish to rule either scenario out, and I’m personally sitting on the fence with a bit of both. However if that were the exact science to the case, he would be potentially well treated tomorrow and extremely tough to beat, especially with a couple of extra pounds respite from the assessor on his chase mark for good measure. Having perused the opposition tomorrow, nothing makes anywhere near the appeal as Carrick Mines, who in his current mood looks to have plenty in hand of his rivals, especially with his nearest rival in the betting yet to fully convince over this trip, and the 3rd favourite having to over come an absence. Carrick Mines also has proven form in these types of events, and Imo looks a solid choice tomorrow to continue his good record over the course. |
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Ticking over nicely Rob
GL with the old fave |
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Backed him lto over hurdles. Cant fancy him tomorrow -over fences - and/or at the price. But GL.
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Result day 18.
Ring Bo Ree Pl 7-1(9's adv) + 3/4pt Ballyfoy Pl 12-1(20's adv) + 4pts Double Place bit won (8's&18' adv) + 5 1/2pts Profit / Loss +10 1/4pts Total 225 1/2 pts |
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VERY WELL DONE SIR.
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Result day 19.
Carrickmines Un Pl -5pts Profit / Loss -5pts Total 220 1/2pts Carrickmines 2's out to 5's, just not his day. |
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Bet day 21. 1pt E.W. Night Trade 14.25 25-1 vcbet 1pt E.W. Nubar Boy 13.55 12-1 Whill + 1pt E.W Double 25's & 10,s vc bet all Lingfield and BOG, write up to follow.....
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Whilst there appears to be some real top class N.H. racing across the country to wet the appetite, unfortunately I’ve struggled to really take to the chances of anything in that particular sphere with any conviction. I have however been drawn to some that may represent reasonable value on the A.W., and have opted for a much lower key Saturday in terms of quality, concentrating my attentions to a couple in the sprint series events at Lingfield.
I will kick off in the 14.25 where no doubt Waabel is still on a very interesting mark, and given the way the last raced panned out, I’m certain connections won’t want him stuck in behind a moderate pace today. Hopefully Martin Harley will jump and run like he can do, and although he would be a tough nut to crack if getting loose, the race could be set up for a strong finisher, or at least a one who will be giving best at the business end. Night Trade is my idea of a horse that would be suited to such a gallop, and because of some recent respite to her mark can take a drop in class, and now contest a 0-75 affair. She has a very sound record in handicaps and a seller up to that grade with form figures reading 1-4-2-1-2-1-1, and throughout her career although she hasn’t won on an a poly track has ran respectable enough on plenty of occasions to suggest she is at ease with the surface. I’m prepared to put a line through her last run about a fortnight ago, that day she fluffed her lines at the start, relinquishing best part of 5 lengths to majority of the field, with Hotham playing his part on a few occasions keeping her in on the rail with no where to go for most of the contest. She did see daylight late on, but inside the furlong Luke Morris accepted she had no chance and let her come home at leisure. She will need to jump smarter today to hold the line from her good draw, but with the Harris yard being in much better order of late, she looks capable of a bold show, no doubt doing all of her work late on looking well enough handicapped to play a minor role. Now onto Nubar Boy who run’s half an hour earlier, and his trainer has possibly brought him back with this series very much in mind. He does look at the end of his rope on the handicapping scale, however there was plenty to like about his come back run behind The Strig last Saturday to make him of interest in today’s line up. Lto after leaving the stalls a little awkwardly was always in behind horses, and that is very much his style, however Lto the race appeared to suit them up with the moderate pace, The Strig turning it into a 3 furlong dash from the top of the straight. The Evans yard continue to be in great from, and have booked Paul Hanagan to ride, who is not a habitual rider for the yard but over the seasons has done very nicely for them, and his booking can only be seen as positive,. He has also been landed with the 1 box, which should make it easier for Hanagan to get cover from, and is another who will be giving best when others are faltering. |
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Take a bow Son!!!
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Sensational stuff therobster. A bit better positions for the 2 in running we might have been looking at a proper uppercut for the bookies.
Good luck in future, don't think you rely much on it. |
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 wd rob |
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Great tipping again Robster, didn't notice the thread until now, just a length between them and a sensational double, well done buddy. As a matter of interest did you actually put a £20 ew double on these 2 outsiders, seems a bit disproportionate in comparison to the £20 ew singles! Not knocking just wondering.
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once again Rob a very well done so close for a massive double
but still a very nice return |
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therobster27
Well done .....I always thought Nubar Boy wasn't very good on the a/w but have backed it on decent turf before ... hats off not an easy one to find on it's own never mind in a double |
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Superb stuff Rob. Very well done
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brilliant stuff..wd
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stewarts I did indeed do the double to my advised 1ptE.W.(£20E.W.) my reasoning being I thought both had better place prospects than the actual win, and thought the value lay in (at the time of writing) the place double(26 1/4-1) I'm sure with other firms you could have gotten a place only double at much reduced odds, but if they both had of won without even placing a small win double, that would have been a cardinal sin! And looking at both races, that win double was not that far away.
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w/d rob, put them in a £1e/w patent with billies selection.
Just shy of £200 returned.  |
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Incredible again Rob, thanks very much!
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