Like your reasoning and usually follow what you say but I hope this loses tomorrow! I went to back Neptune and accidentally backed Exmoor Ranger! I wonder if Betfair will give me my money back!

hey?? lay exmoor back and back the one you want too shirley

therobster27,

Always fascinating reading and a tremendous start to 2012,

Long may it continue,

Good Luck, always,

'The Weasel'

Good luck today, thanks for your very good write-ups

Your profit total is slowly but surely burning this forum out

Yourself and Billy Liddell are a true credit to this forum

Keep it going

Two very good each ways today Rob, stay in that winning groove..

Ended the day in profit, alas on a low with the final result... seems everyone was in the know regarding Ciceron's chance's, well done to those who managed to get the fancy prices.

well done
two good e/w bets there
   thank you

Bet for day 8. 1pt E.W. Ace of Spies 16-1 generally. BOG....

....Tomorrow’s 15.20 at Southwell, and having tried to cover all angles regarding the outcome, I believe Conor Dore has every possibility of bagging this meagre prize with one of his runners, but not the most obvious one.

        Ace of Spies ridden by James Sullivan has actually around 5 lengths to find with his stable companion on Lto’s running, however he did shape a lot better than his finishing position would indicate, and may have flattered his stable mate by the proximity in which he appeared inferior. That race will have been 6 days ago tomorrow, and one of the reasons I believe Ace of Spies can finish in front of Elhamri , and a good few of the field is the draw.

         At this level the draw can be crucial , and Lto they could not have been drawn further apart from each other, Elhamri in stall 1 with Ace of Spies jumping from 14(12). However the race panned out fairly strangely in many respect’s, as usually a draw in the range of 5-9 being an advantage, swinging off the bend into the straight middle to stand side, but that day was not the case. After Ace of Spies had used valuable energy early doors in attempting to get on the sharp end, once almost there was forced wide into the straight by the trail blazing Greenhead High, only to see the place to be was up the other rail, and take Green head High out of the equation the first 3 home would have been drawn 1,2 & 3, a low draw appearing to be a massive advantage.

        Ace of Spies because of his exertions in the early part of the race was eased heavily a fair way out, and has nowhere near Imo 5 lengths to make up with his stable companion. He does, just like Elhamri look suited to Southwell’s 6F, unlike a fair few in the field that do appreciate fibre sand but look suited to shorter, including many at the head of the market.  Obviously you can never be confident regarding the outcome of this type of race, but at 16-1 I do think he’s definitely worth an E.W. interest , especially if Elhamri is a 5-1 shot, and looking back on their head-head’s over the last year or so he's every right to finish in front of his much shorter priced stable companion.

You were right Rob.............you bumped into 1

Result day 7

Afsoun                 Un Pl             -2pts
Neptune Collonges     2nd 9-1(10's adv)  +2pts
double                 Lost              -1pt
Waabel                3rd 16-1(25's adv) +5 1/4pts

Profit / Loss                            +4 1/4 pts

Total                                    193 1/4pts

Good luck with todays selections Robster,

Result day 8.

Supreme Team     Un Pl          -2pts
Ace of Spies   Pl 16-1 (adv)    +2pts

Profit / Loss                   0pts

Total                          193 1/4pts

Bet for day 10. 3pts E.W. Magic Haze 13.25 Southwell 15-2 whill BOG write up to follow....

FACTS . . . FINK ITS CALLED THE BIGGER THE PRICE THE MORE YOU LIKE IT HAVE MORE ON.

G/L ROBSTER

Good luck Rob
Horse has very good Course form, were you at all worried by the fact his two wins there were in Apprentice races which tomorrows race isn't ?

Just come across this thread, pretty impressive Robster! The price is in to 5s everywhere now, didn't take long did it

Facts, I opened my thread last year with the below statement....

I am making a new years resolution to be 100% totally disciplined when it comes to gambling, It's not to bad now, but many years ago I used to, like many, chase my money and have spur of the moment stupid, stupid bet's without even any thought going into the selection, thankfully them days are long behind me, don't get me wrong if I ever go racing a little of my old self comes to the fore, but it's budgeted for accordingly. Starting from tomorrow, I'm going to start a thread/blog to try and double a starting bank of 100pts by the end of the year...to me that's £20 per point (£2000).
      Unlike photo finish man / If.. I certainly won't be having a 1000pts max bet on 8-11 shot's, I will be posting my stake's in accordance to how strongly I fancy, whether there singles double's R/F or on occasion's multi bets(rare). half point unit's to my max bet of 5.... basically for me putting up a 5 pointer, it would mean having dinner with the Quinnlans !!! please feel free to (constructively) criticize, and feel free to leave your own input on any of my selections, and please remember these are just my humble opinions on trying to take the green stuff out of those bookies satchels.
       All my bets will be posted the night before or early morning, if and when I see the right opportunity at (imo) the right price, I will post. I'm not trying to scam, or put anyone away, and at the end of the day it's only my time and effort I'd be wasting trawling through form etc..., which I enjoy doing regardless. I wish all the forumites a very happy and prosperous new year, as we go head to head against the enemy(bookies)

Best wishes from therobster for 2011

I will more or less be using the same guidelines as above for betting  purposes this year... hope this helps.

87blade, that’s a judgement call you will have to make for yourself, personally at 5-1(BOG) I'd still see him as a bet to nothing, and it may even drift if others in the race are supported.

Ps. did notice Pumphol that his races were apprentice job's... on both occasions was giving plenty of weight, and ridden by an apprentice that was unable to claim, think the lad on board vey good value for his 5lbs tomorrow.

rob
similar to my own betting 'system'. I bet one horse to win each day. Stake is 1/50th of Bank.

Bet for day 12. 1pt E.W. Cerium 25-1 generally BOG.....

.....        Tomorrow sees yet another National, this one being the North Yorkshire variety, and it certainly looks like last years winning owner is most certainly trying to go back to back. The Pipe yard have also initiated an assault on the prize, as well as Caroline Bailey sending one up from Holdenby. However I like the look of a horse that has formerly contested among other decent races, an Arkle, 2 Cheltenham Gold cup’s and 2 Aintree Grand National’s. That horse being  Cerium, and after peaking at 154 (albeit many moons ago) he has now found his way into the Neil King yard, and dropped to a very attractive 115, shaping with much more encouragement Lto to be considered a lively outsider in tomorrows race.

        This horse started life off for the yard in the grade 2 hurdle at Newbury in November won by Big Buck’s, and as you’d expect did not last that long at that pace, and  his opponents in the particular race, especially given that race had came off the back of a 578 day absence. His last race at Warwick over 25F was, as stated much more encouraging, given an ultra patient ride, and without being spectacular ran a fairly sound race without being given a hard time. He was also not too far behind that’s Ben, whom had recent form with Pegasus Prince, and at the weights tomorrow it may be very interesting to say the least.  I know you simply can’t take these types of form lines literally, as form over different tracks and distance is very hard to equate, but with the lad’s claim again tomorrow he will be receiving 16lb from that rival, and on a purely hypothetical basis is capable at the weights of finishing in front of Pegasus Prince, unless of course I’ve read the race wrong.

         It’s a fair possibility that Cerium may well have also needed the run Lto, and now steps back up to a more suitable trip. He did look to travel powerfully in the softish going in that race at Warwick, and has some relatively good form in that going, with tomorrow’s ground likely not to be a million miles away from it. All this horse appears to do is stay on, and that was also evident in his last contest, after being outpaced 5 out seem to plug on a the one pace, given a very easy time of things from his pilot, and would no doubt have benefited for the spin round. With plenty of the field piling the pounds on their respective mark’s recently, it may pay to be on a one the handicapper has shown some leniency to recently, and at a big price Cerium has the C.V. to most definitely surprise in this line up.

TTT