ROBSTER. 

"You~dig" 

robster: As always a pleasure to read your thread with motivations for your bets. But beware, one of these days I might follow your tips, which would be the end of your success........

stewarts that is a very valid point you make, and no one can argue the logic around your thinking. Retrospective of how much I fancied the place only aspect of the double and singles, I should have possibly had my usual 1/2pt E.W. staked. However at times I do lack discipline, and sometimes my staking(not always) can reflect my confidence, especially when I'm turning out some decent returns, as January has thus far. I do of course when confidence is sparce play it safe, and do keep stakes tight until the corner has been turned, and no doubt I will hit my baron period's, but last year was possibly my worst for a while pro rata winners to selections, but did make it pay with some nice places.... each to their own I suppose

Ps Mr Seagull, nothing better than a day on the dub with the bookies picking up the bill, I like your style

Bet day 22. 1pt E.W. Powerful Ambition 14.00 Market Rasen 14-1 PP BOG......


Today’s 14.00 at Market Rasen looks one of those races where I’m certain a few trainers will be trying to hatch their plans, and a few horses have been nibbled at all ready in the market. The horse I just can’t get away from is the Brian Ellison trained Powerful Ambition, I’m certain a few will be sounding Koo out on the forum regarding his chances,  but he usually keeps his card close to his chest, and rightly so as the man who pays the bills.

           I am well prepared to second guess connections thought’s on his chances today, and will take the small chance he maybe putting his best foot forward, and there are plenty of reasonable positives to back up my thinking. I will start with his breeding, and both sides of his pedigree has stamina in abundance, and for the first time contests a distance where staying will count, stepping up a full 5 furlongs in trip from his last run. Another major plus is the form of the Ellison yard, who continue to churn out winners in January under both codes, with plenty others running very well indeed. He has also booked a very able 3lb claimer in Kyle James, who from limited rides for the yard has seldom let them down with 4 winners and 4 places from just 16 starts. Brian Ellison also seems to do reasonably well at this venue, although not a prolific strike rate at about 15%, it is however one of only a handful of track’s he remains in profit to level stakes.

            This horse is in today off 92, and looking at a few of his recent hurdle spins where he was anchored at the rear for majority of the journey, I’m convinced that way of riding him over that type trip would not have played to his strengths, and if he wasn’t better than his current mark I’d be amazed. With the lads claim today he props up this handicap, and is set to carry 10st01lb, and Imo is as good as any conditional riding in the contest. I’m not entirely certain whether 14’s for this horse is actual value, given his connections he has the chance to go off 10-20 points bigger, or just as likely to be smashed up into favourite. Today he makes plenty of appeal to me, especially with 4 places (at the minute) up for grabs, and regardless of how he runs today he is at least one to keep in the note book.

Result day 21.

Nubar Boy     Pl 14-1 (12's adv BOG)   + 1 3/4pts
Night Trade   Pl 20-1 (25's adv)       + 5 1/4pts
Double    place bit won(14's-bog&25's) + 25 1/2pts

Profit / Loss                          + 32 1/2pts

Total                                   253 pts

They say that winners never sleep but up posting your selection at 5.30 you must be living on nervous energy! What a terrific start to the year, 3 weeks in and 150+ pts up, great work robster.
Can't share your enthusiasm for todays selection though even though i give way to your far superior knowledge of dark uns to mine! Looks like this horse has been a dissapointment to the stable so far as has gone off pretty short in its early races NHF and hurdle and the fact that its started at 66/1 the last twice suggests to me that any confidence in this horses abilities has evaporated. Can understand where you are coming from re breeding but would want to see some evidence of ability before parting with any hard earned on it myself.
     I would be more interested in Ellisons Amtired in the last, have been following this one since watching him making up a huge amount of ground at Sthwll in the summer over a mile and judged on his 2nd to Book em Danno on good ground(probably better on softer), and his easy victory afterwards must have a chance from this mark less your apprentices 5lbs, unlucky when running out lto when in contention could well have been carrying a penalty here, at 12/1 looks a good EW bet to me.

Regarding breeding stewarts, my thoughts were merely pointing out he is bred to be a better horse in excess of the distance he has been contesting. His dam won races around the 2 1/2 mile mark, and his sire Bob Back a very good dual purpose stallion, getting plenty of stamina into his progeny on the flat. Not really sure this horse has been disappointing as such, still very young and not been given too much of a hard time so far. Just thought with the yard in their present form, and stepping up in trip on the f/cast ground it could go well at a price.

Interesting one in the last Amtired, definitely has his chance.GL

Last couple of runs have been in lesser races 1/2k where it went off at 66/1 twice now contesting a 3k race and standing@ circa 12s would make you think mm?? to-day might be the day hope so Robster as I admire your trainof thought.good kuck all.

Ran a great race Rob, not sure  if it was feeling the ground the last couple of furlongs though.

most impressive thread rob. long may it continue for you.

a very well done rob
profits building very nicely and am sure the big payout is not far away

Bet for day 23. 2pt win Chabada & 1 pt win Dart + 1/2pt R/F 15.30 Wolverhampton 100-30 & 7-1 generally BOG, write up to follow....

Fantastic Rob, Top Top form

Result day 22.

Powerful Ambition      2nd 10-1(14's adv)  +2 1/2pts


Profit / Loss                              + 2 1/2pts

Total                                 255 1/2pts.

P.S. Aye stewarts, just bumped into one, and as pumphol stated looked to be slightly feeling the ground late on, WD with your place...thought he'd come to win his race UL.

RELENTLESS TIPPING OF WINNERS

UNSTOPABLE

VWD Rob keep it going

Well so far so good in January for the thread, and as of yet the wheels are still in tact, no doubt they will come off at some stage, but until they do I’m happy to try a couple tomorrow that fall into the “risky proposition” category. The first coin flip is for the fitness of Evella, and the other is regarding the ground for Weisentraum.

      I will start with Evella who made her seasonal debut somewhat later than usual, when she reappeared in the Sussex national at the beginning of the month. That particular race was full of incident, but Evella was unhindered by it at the head of affairs, fencing beautifully in the main travelling very nicely for the majority of that race. It was however approximately 3/4mile out when her stamina started to flounder, she did respond and cling on to the coat tails of the first few home for longer than I’d have wagered, and that should have fetched her on ton fitness wise. If I’m honest the last couple of races she has contested were better quality than this one, and the handicapper has now dropped her to a mark she will be able to get competitive off.
       The ground should pose no problems what so ever, but it’s her fitness that is questionable, looking to need at least a couple of run’s before those levels are at their optimum. However it may be the case she excels after the turn of the year, and if she’s not being pulled up she’s usually winning or running well, and it maybe coincidental but it always seems to be in January. Ignoring her seasonal debut recently she has form figures of 1-4-1-1, and regardless of what she appeared to achieve in her novice chases I believe this is about her mark range. If her fitness is 100% tomorrow no doubt she will be given the office up front, and will most definitely find out the iffy jumpers and stayers in doing so.

       Now onto Wiesentraum who I have monitored for a few runs now, and looks to posses the necessary experience to step forward on his handicap debut a few weeks ago. That run was only his second of the season, and his 6th life time appearance, and may well be progressing into a nice horse. The first 3 horses home that day were all in reasonable heart, and looked to be 3 fairly progressive types themselves, and I believe Wiesentraum lost nothing in defeat staying on a one paced 4th. One thing he did appear to do Lto was travel powerfully, and I think will be massively suited by tomorrow’s very soft surface given that prominent style of racing. The yard have started off very low key, but have recently had a winner and Lucy Wadham may just about be turning the corner in that respect, with Wiesentraum hopefully set to continue her resurgence in form.

       Both of my selections come with huge risks attached, but Imo at the double figured prices they are quoted at may prove to be worth the risk, especially if lady luck is still on side.

plum pudding for me

ive had a little bit on toby belch rob at 16s,been following the horse and make a decent excuise for all is runs this season.
everything going for him tomorrow,good ground(by presnting),well below is hurdles mark and the yard now in decent form.
but the form you in,i think im up against it.