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for the new year (2)
for the new year (2)
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Not entirely convinced the going will be good tomorrow KIW, lots of forecast rain early pm, and yesterday it was described as heavy on hurdles course?? just have to wait and see..GL all the same
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always the same at leicester rob,like a bog over hurdles and road over fences...strange.
i hope the rain keeps of for toby. |
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Result day 223.
Dart Un Pl -1pt Chabada Won 7-4(100-30 adv -R4) +6pts R/F Lost -1pt Profit / Loss +4pts Total 259 1/2pts |
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evella now best price 8-1(9-1 skybet but you cannot count them),also money for wiesentrum bp 9-1.
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Can't win them all robster, but that ground is atrocious, wouldn't worry about that too much, did Evella finish was 3rd coming to the last, absolutely kn@ckered!
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Finished last of seven finishers but again ran well for a long way, bit better ground & another drop in the hcp hopefully, so not one to give up on yet by any means.
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Another mile - and I think PP would have got up !!
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Result day 24.
Wiesentraum Un Pl -2pts Evella Un Pl -2pts Double Lost - 1pt Profit / Loss - 5pts Total 254 1/2pts Good call and unlucky with Tony Belch KIW, and Plum Pudding would have won with another ½ mile facts. As for my fancies, like you say pumphol slightly better ground, not even sure about the drop in her mark, she surely must be there fitness wise for Nto?. Weisentraum could well be seen in better light over the bigger obstacles, or possibly stepping up in trip. |
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keep
em coming rob. u the best |
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Bet for day 26. 1pt E.W. Ready To Go 17.05 & 1pt E.W. Taajub 19.05 both Kempton. 10-1B365 & 11-1 PP + 1/2pt E.W. Double 10's & 10's B365 all BOG write up to follow....
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Beg me pardod ^^^^ Set To Go 17.05 11-1 PP
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Pardon even, It's one of those nights!
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 is here just for a change |
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Tom Leave the man to his own thoughts. Lost his way in the Leicester mud will soon be back on form
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Tomorrow evenings Kempton card has been the centre of my attention tonight, and believe there are a couple that could certainly out run their respective odds, them being Miss Tor Stugis’s Set To Go and Peter Crate’s Taajub.
I will start with Set To Go, who looks ready to do just that, in what is in all honesty a woeful event, however something has to win it and at his double figure price quoted by B365 Set To Go is too big a price not to have an interest. His task has been slightly eased by the defection of Blueberry Fizz, who also alleviates the pressure on his place prospects judging on that absentee’s recent good placing form. Set To Go comes into this race off a massive display on his seasonal debut last Thursday, showing plenty of good early dash and settling nicely at the head of affairs. His fitness levels did appear to be reasonable only faultering very late on, and once headed certainly did not go down quietly. I’m certain the run would have brought him on a bundle for sure, and he does show marked improvement for having an outing after a break. All of his run’s back from a 75+ day break he’s improved massively on his next run, he hasn’t troubled the judge in any capacity, but he dramatically comes on for the run, and if equating even just a couple of lengths improvement from Lto he should go close tomorrow. Tor Sturgis is also amongst the winner’s, and is now slightly adjusting the head gear on this horse tomorrow. She is also fairly happy to keep him at 7, as apposed to the Wolverhampton’s 9F he was also entered in on Friday, and should be set for a bold show in this line up. Now onto Taajub, who I have kept close tabs on after recommending him on his penultimate start at Kempton early December, and is again an interesting runner reverting back to 6F. Lto late December was given an outing in a well contested 7F event at Lingfield, but in all honesty the way the race panned out Imo did not suit his style, being heavily eased when beaten. He is probably best judged his on his penultimate run over C/D in the race I fancied him to run well, I personally thought Seb Sanders could have had him better positioned, and after having his run impeded/checked on a few occasions did come home to good effect, making eye catching late gains when it was all over. Tomorrow there are a few who do like to be at the head of affairs, and should at least be contesting a decent gallop which he will need to show his finishing flourish. Peter Crate will no doubt want to get some of the money back that was left behind, after being backed from 9’s in the morning into 9-2 fav on the night, and on that running looks to hold plenty that re appose from that particular race. |
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Slightly unfortunate with the 2nd selection there Rob (should have placed at least).I wasn't overly impressed with Keniry's performance
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Hope alls well at Robster Castle
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think robs keeping is powder dry until the morning.
dont want priewise following him. |
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"pricewise" i cannot spell at the best of times.
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Its all about the 'long run ' - there is 366 days in 2012 !
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Bet for day 28. 2pts E.W. Wayward Prince 14.50 Doncaster 8-1 generally(B365 4-1+ race) 1pt E.W. River D’or 13.30 Cheltenham 25-1 generally + ½ pt E.W. double all BOG…
A cracking day’s jumping action, no doubt there will be plenty running today with Cheltenham aspirations, and a couple I like at their current odds are the Ian Williams trained Wayward Prince, and River D'or for Mrs Leech. I will start with Watward Prince who would obviously have to win this doing handstands to even be considered a lively outsider for his intended engagement in the Gold Cup, however having gone through this race I just can’t get away from his chance in today’s Great Yorkshire Chase. Last season was his first step into the chasing sphere, and looked every yard the part when rattling up a quick fire hat trick in some reasonable novice’s, before running the races of his life in an excellent renewal of the RSA at Cheltenham, and ran another huge race at Aintree behind Quioto De La Roque to finish off a very respectable first campaign, giving very much the impression he would make up into a 160+ horse with normal progression. This season for whatever reason it just has not happened for him thus far, but I believe all is not lost just yet, and there have been more than a semblance of hope to take out of his latest performance going into this race. He made his seasonal debut in the Hennessey, and connections would have been disappointed with his run given the fact he usually goes well fresh , and was nibbled at in the betting to run a bigger race than he did, going off 6-1 3rd favourite which was short enough for such a competitive race. That day he seemed ran off his feet for most of the race, and ploughed through a fence on the first circuit that he had every right to have fallen at, and was always fighting a loosing battle thereafter, never travelling looking in desperate need of the outing. It was as stated his next run that was much more encouraging at Wetherby, where he travelled strongly held up just off a very decent pace set by According To Pete (Won the Peter Marsh since) and Helpeston, and after hitting a couple running down the back made good headway to circle the field on the run to the straight, seeminly holding every chance. Again his fitness seemed to waiver late on as he ran down the last few flights, and Timmy Murphy not exactly being hard on him when his chance was gone. Those 2 run’s will have him cherry ripe, and the assessor has also enhanced his chances by dropping him 4lbs. Saying the Ian Williams yard are now in much better heart would be an understatement, having had 8 winners from his last 16 runners, and many others running sound races. Hopefully he will get a decent enough pace for Timmy Murphy to put his excellent cruising speed to use, and he will be much better suited to underfoot conditions than his previous encounter, today looking his optimum as showing when winning over hurdles on course over 25F approximately this time in 2010. All things considered he looks to hold an outstanding chance running off his mark of 146, and having only had 14 lifetime starts in all spheres to date, further progression is far from out of the question now he’s in the prime of life. Write up for River D’or will follow….. |
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cheers rob great write up as always.
i thought river dor looked a big price as well. jusr got a really obvious chance and nothing to find with the favourite of nicholls. nearly 40 on here now. |
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…Now onto River D’or who I do think has a much better chance than his 25-1 quote would suggest, having some form with a couple of the principles that should give him a fighting chance of hitting the frame.
After starting life off in the French provinces, this horse was acquired by the all conquering Nicholls team, but never really reached the heights he was intended too. His owner did send him for a change of scenery at Arthur Moore’s yard, and quickly dispensed with after 2 runs eventually finding his way into the care of Sophie Leech. He made his debut at Newbury for the yard last November, and was never a factor in that particular contest finishing mid division after a poor display of fencing, possibly needing the run. It was however over this C/D where he showed that he was not devoid of ability, when finishing a very close up 3rd behind Night Alliance & That’lldoboy. Having been held up in touch just got slightly outpaced turning in, but was fairly rattling home cutting back the 4 or so lengths back jumping the last to be beaten under a length. He has Imo improved since that run, and in his last 2 runs in excess of 3 miles has been desperately unlucky no to have gotten on the score sheet. Those contests were both over 26F and on ground described as G/Soft. Today he reverts significantly back in trip, however I believe that they won’t be hanging about today, and this horse does posses the cruising speed to be sitting handy, if not making his own running. He is running out of the handicap by 4lbs, and with A P Crawley booked to do the 10st, Imo is capable of surprising at very nice odds if putting in an error free round of jumping, looking for my money to have improved more than the weight he's out the handicap. Fingers crossed in both races they stand their ground, giving that extra place in each contest. |
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Result day 26.
Ready To Go Un Pl -2pts Taajub Un Pl -2pts Double lost -1pt Profit / Loss -5pts Total 249 1/2 pts PS, I'm sure your not the only one miffed my Keniry's efforts on Taajub 87blade, but to be fair the race had simply no pace, and looks a horse that needs everything to drop right on the day. |
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TTT
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Result day 28.
River D'or Un Pl -2pts Wayward Prince Un Pl -4pts Double Lost -1pt Profit / Loss - 7pts Total 242 1/2pts Both never at the races, but a little surprised the ride given to Wayward Prince who did stay on late in the day. |
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Wayward Prince could be an interestin one to keep an eye on for the Grand National imo
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Bet day 29. 1pt E.W. Inkberrow Rose 11-1 Bet Victor BOG...
After looking at today’s cards yesterday nothing seemed to catch my eye at the right price, but with a few in today’s 14.55 at Ffos Las being quite well punted, I feel Inkberrow Rose has drifted out to a more realistic price, and Imo is worth a small E.W. wager. As already alluded to there appears to be plenty of interest from a betting perspective in this race, with connections of both Tarateeno and Bendant expecting vast improvement to their respective charges, with the former looking potentially very well handicapped for his gambling yard. However I’m sticking with a mare that has run her self into some form, as she did last season, and once in form appears to be able to string some consistently good runs together. Lto she was nailed very late on by Al Shabibya, and again there shouldn’t be much between them on their respective marks, saying that I think Inkberrow Rose was in front plenty soon enough, and if she had have been taken further into the race she may well have won, and she does at least posses plenty of battling qualities for a finish. I’m fairly certain this will be run at a decent enough gallop, with The Tatkin putting the pace to her particular race Lto, if that were the case today Inkberrow Rose should be able to sit handy off a decent gallop, with staying most definitely the order of the day which within her grade she does very well. She did actually win in heavy ground on this day last year, and looks very well suited to extremely testing conditions, and Imo looks a safer option that most at her price in what looks a fairly volatile betting exchange. |
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Maybe BJG, interesting.
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Bet for day 32. 1pt E.W. Last Sovereign 19.20 Kempton 16-1 Will Hill BOG…....
Having lightly perused the over night priced races for tomorrow’s cards, The more I’ve looked at Kempton’s 19.20 the more I like the prospects of the Ollie Pears trained Last Sovereign, ridden by Tom Eaves. This horse’s chance does not exactly leap off the page, and Ollie Pears in truth is struggling somewhat to string any worth while form together, but never the less I think that 16-1 quoted this evening to be about fair, and if focusing on his strengths a strong case can be made for a big run. A major positive regarding his cause is his mark, and has now fallen to 77, and all of his life time wins both A.W. and turf have been achieved on a sub 80 mark. His form over C/D on mark’s under 80 reads 1-2-1, and looks to hold good form late January – early March with form figures of 3-2-1-2-2-1 within that said period over his career. He was beaten fair and square Lto, and even though he can run well fresh he did just look in need of the run, and trawling back through his form he does usually come on after his initial run after a break/lay off. The blinkers that current connections fitted to good effect in August go back on after being omitted on his come back run, and look’s to have been drawn very kindly for his prominent style of racing. I’m a huge fan of Ollie Pears as a trainer, and he doesn’t often set his horses unrealistic target’s unless he thinks them capable, and again looks to have placed Last Sovereign into a race he’s capable of putting in a bold show, with Kempton’s 7F looking ideal. |
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Result day 29.
Inkberrow Rose Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -2pts Total 240 1/2 pts |
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great tipping. goodluck for new year.
328 tipped and 37 winners. how many points did you stake overall on single bets to achieve your 111 points profit for last year? |
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Amazingly, given that, 'Prince Of Burma', (the original favourite), is a non-runner and the Rule 4 Deduction, will be possibly 20%, surely the 16/1 stll being offered, should be taken?
18.5 to back on here, even more tempting! Good Luck |
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ran out of petrol in the run in
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No complaint's from me, just the type of ride I would have wanted... as you say just didn't get home, but Imo was given every chance by Eaves.
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Bet day 35. 1pt E.W. Fantasy Fighter 14.00 Lingfield 9-1 generally BOG....
Well after all N.H. cards have fallen to the weather, many a punter will be picking the bones out of the two A.W. card’s, and having given them both the once over there is only one horse that I’m prepared to be with today, that’s the John Long trained Fantasy Fighter. His last 3 runs have all been over C/D, all off his current mark of 57, and every run has not been without promise. Today he has the worst of the draw in (10), however the way I envisage this race panning out the draw should not pose too much of an inconvenience, with the likes of Waterloo Dock and Microlight who will no doubt try and blast off from flag fall, as well as the likes of Efistorm and Captain Dimitris who also like to sit handy and help a generous pace, and who knows they may even revert back to front running with Waabel, which should make this contest a true run affair which Fantasy Fighter need’s to show his best. His latest start was probably his best in a long time, and in all honesty that contest would in no way have played to this horse’s strengths. It was a race I’ve watched several times recently, with the pace being set by Overwhelm and The Strig a fairly pedestrian one, and it took John Fahy a good furlong and a half to get Fantasy Fighter to drop his head and settle into a rhythm, but despite this did seem to finish his race off well. Imo the horses that have since ran involved in that contest have given the form a massive boost, with plenty of horses NTO winning or running very well, making Fantasy Fighters run look even better than first assumed. He does appear on paper to have a little to do with the principles in the betting, and if only these sprinters did run on paper we’d all be millionaires. At his current odds of 8-1 he makes much more appeal to me than the current jolly Cut The Cackle at 11-4/3-1, whom is 0-15 over 6F, appearing to be one of those unlucky in running types on too many occasions. So if this race is run as anticipated, Fantasy Fighter within his grade has no doubt the ability to travel and quicken just off a decent gallop, with a prominent show looking more likely than not. |
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best of luck today.
you must have been a bit gutted not putting calgery bay up last week. |
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B365 are 9/1 on this with enhanced place terms and it counts towards their channel 4 free bet offer
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Result day 32.
Last Sovereign Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -2pts Total 238 1/2 pts Yeh defo kiw, nearly talked myself into a saver on him, went off bigger than I expected at 12's. |
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Thats who I'm on with Blade, but probably wont be around to take advantage of the offer if he was lucky enough to win.
 , and did not even notice the 1/4 odds place terms, which is a litltle Brucie bonus if it squeezes in. |