thehappysnapper

i definitely still think there is a race or two in abundantly and will be interesting when seen in handicap company.

Was a bit disappointed in the end with anders peter who never really got competitive in not a great contest after being well supported but at least made me a small profit.

As for todays action im keen to be on Autarch in the 3.05 Nottingham @ 6/1 and 6/5 to place for the maximum 2pts but 8pts.

He looks a nice prospect for the future a strong looking colt that could well make up into a nice horse next season possible over 1m4f but could definitely see him taking this race on his way to better things. I'm expecting Jimmy Fortune to make plenty of use of him over the mile judged on first two starts and really liked the way he battled last week in the closing stages after getting out paced.

I actually think hes got the best form on offer here and has most to worry about from the two newcomers. Moidore is clearly showing some zip at home after being sent off short first time out for a newbury maiden and wasnt deserted next time despite a poor run. Didnt get much luck last time being caught wide but still i would have liked to have seen more in the closing stages once straightening up for home to even consider backing him at 5/2 today.

We only really have the market as a guide for Cameron Highland and Ace of Valhalla.

The others at bigger prices offer very little imo making the place part of the bet very attractive bearing in mind two of four in single figures are unraced.

Anders Peter (+5.27)
Abundantly (-6pts)

22.27pts

MJ boasts tidy 27% strike rate at Leicester with his 2yos and can build on that today with Peter Anders in the maiden.

Was promising run first time out and looks sure to come on a ton after just not being fit enough to see the race out. Back in trip to 6 furlongs looks ideal after showing good speed at newcastle.

having the normal 2pts win at 5/1 and 8pts place at 10/11.

Im not sure the race at windsor Madgenta was 2nd in is was that strong and plenty happy enough to take her on at 9/4.

Tioman Pearl could come on plenty and will surely run much better than he did at nottingham but he only got to half way in that contest and plenty now to prove.

Springheel Jake was in a terrible maiden last time.

Kyleakin Lass the biggest danger.

Its been a while but pleasing to get one on the board yesterday.

An 8pt win puts me on 23pts for the blog running total and will be spinning up 2pts win and 4pts place on Abundantly in the 6.40 Wolverhampton at 16/1 and 7/2.

Was a good effort first time out and looked sure to build on the effort next time. never travelled and something was clearly amiss next time at kempton but willing to give him another go at the price. It may have been the all weather surface that was against him in which case im pissing into the wind today but it just looked too bad to be true.

cheers all

Been a while just havent fancied anything this week since getting back from hols.

Going to easy my way back into today with a small 4pts win on Diala @ 2/1 in the first at Newmarket. Couldnt have been any more impressive first time out without winning but put a nice gap on the field back to third. Drifted all the way to 2/1 looks very generous now and a reproduction of her first effort will make her very hard to beat.



Grand Theft Equine (-10pts)
Stature (-10pts)
Kempton 7.50 Waltzing Cat upl @ (-4)
Goodwood 4.20 Mafeteng upl @ 14/1(-8)
Goodwood 2.35 Samba King upl @ 9/1 (-3)
Goodwood 2.00 Juvinal NR
Goodwood 3.45 Distant Memories upl @ (-5)
Goodwood 3.45 Mirror Lake 3rd @ 10/1 (+6)
Redcar 2.15 Lawn Jamil 2pts @ 11/8 (+2.75)
Kempton 2.30 Malekat Jamel upl @ 12/1 (-5)
Grand Theft Equine (-10pts)
Stature upl (-10pts)
Catterick 2.05 Indego Blues 1st @ 5/4 (+6)
Newmarket 1.45 Gathering 1st @ 3/1 (+14.4)
Newbury 3.45 Spoke to Carlo 3rd @ 12/1 (+10)
Lingfield 2.55 La Bocca 2nd @ 11/4 (+3.33)
Lingfield 2.25 Talk of the North 2nd @ 5/4 (+3.33)
Newbury 4.20 Accession 1st @ 11/10 (+5.5)
Wolverhampton 5.15 Fairyinthewind upl @ 7/1 (-10pts)
Pontefract 5.00 Academy 3rd @ 5/1 (+5.27)
Kempton 6.40 Press Officer 2nd @ 13/8 (+2.5)
Kempton 7.10 Fairest Isle 3rd @ 10/1  (+4.66)
Yarmouth 2.10 Protanto upl @ 9/2 (-5pts)
Sandown 2.55 Alshmemi 3rd @ 8/1 (+14pts)
Kempton 7.10 Sweet Lavender 2nd @ 11/10 (-4pts)
Folkestone 2.50 Holiday Reading 1st @ 3/1 (+10pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Sleep Dance upl @ 12/1 (-7pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Russian Affair NR
Kempton 3.10 - Abundantly upl @ 8/1 (-10pts)
Kempton 2.40 - Darsan NR
ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)

Running Total
P/L +15pts

backed this one last time and giving him another go today. u would think this would be a stronger race than he contested last time but after closer inspection im not so sure. travels like half decent horse which is what u need to handle the undulations and tight turns at epsom. may have kicked for home a bit too soon last time as well after looking the winner turning from home.

2pts win at 7/1 and 8pts place at 6/4.

another -10 yestersday

Like Stature in the 2nd last at haydock for all the same reasons pretty much and happy to take on Stoutes at the head of the market.

7/1 2pts win 8pts place.

not going to be posting loads the couple of weeks and when ido they will be short and sweet.

good luck all

Another terrible nights punting resulting in an 11.25 loss.

My health profit from last week is now but a distant memory.

Starting with the postives Mirror Lake did battle on well for 3rd and possibly ran a career best to finish 3rd and i was the right side of a photo for once with the drifting Lawn Jamil just holding for 2.75 profit.

Im just plain wrong about Waltzing Cat she just isnt very good and looks a bit tripless after last night. Staying on well over shorter trips didnt see the 1m4f out as well as i thought and only managed 4th after having the perfect run in the race and holding every chance turning for home.

I'm not too fussed about Mafeteng altho i probably shouldnt have even had as much as 4pts place. With these competitive handicaps you really are just better off going win. Drifted alarmingly an hour or so before the race as it became clear the ground was very testing, there is a chance i have spotted something that isnt there so will waiting for market support before backing her next time but could be entitled to another chance.

Samba King was worth chancing i think for a small bet as the race was dreadful the only slightly annoying thing was the one i thought would probably win absolutely bolted up and i didnt have a penny on.

I'm off on holiday tonight for 3 weeks. I will be keeping the blog going whilst i'm away where possible but to the same extent.

Should probably go back to concerntrating on maidens after last nights display and luckily for me i only fancy one horse and its in the first at newmarket. The horse that takes my eye is Stature and will be having the normal 2pts win 8 pts place @ 7/1 and 7/4.

Balding runs all his best 2yo's at Salisbury for some reason so the fact he started him off in a hot novice event speaks volumes. They went a slow gallop only quickening over the last 2-3 furlongs that wouldnt have suited and he did get out paced when it lifted but they by no means left him behind and if anything was closing again at the line. The field was full of winners and interestingly only one horse has been out the race since which is Brittains Daghash (finished last) who won a maiden next time out. The winner of the race probably won the most comptettive maiden run all year the start before so im sure the form is good. Stature has got loads of stamina in his breeding so the slow pace would definitely have been against him and its a credit to him that he stayed so close.

With a bigger field declared for tomorrows race and on a more testing track im sure he will run a very big race. The favourite has to be taken on at 2/1. It was 3rd first time out but beaten quite a long way. the winner of the race was a nice type but still 7 lengths behind in a kempton maiden.

The race will almost certainly go to a classy newcomer as there are just so many but Stature will hitting the line hard and sure to be in the mix.

Really looking in need of winner now so fingers crossed.


Kempton 7.50 Waltzing Cat upl @ (-4)
Goodwood 4.20 Mafeteng upl @ 14/1(-8)
Goodwood 2.35 Samba King upl @ 9/1 (-3)
Goodwood 2.00 Juvinal NR
Goodwood 3.45 Distant Memories upl @ (-5)
Goodwood 3.45 Mirror Lake 3rd @ 10/1 (+6)
Redcar 2.15 Lawn Jamil 2pts @ 11/8 (+2.75)
Kempton 2.30 Malekat Jamel upl @ 12/1 (-5)
Catterick 2.05 Indego Blues 1st @ 5/4 (+6)
Newmarket 1.45 Gathering 1st @ 3/1 (+14.4)
Newbury 3.45 Spoke to Carlo 3rd @ 12/1 (+10)
Lingfield 2.55 La Bocca 2nd @ 11/4 (+3.33)
Lingfield 2.25 Talk of the North 2nd @ 5/4 (+3.33)
Newbury 4.20 Accession 1st @ 11/10 (+5.5)
Wolverhampton 5.15 Fairyinthewind upl @ 7/1 (-10pts)
Pontefract 5.00 Academy 3rd @ 5/1 (+5.27)
Kempton 6.40 Press Officer 2nd @ 13/8 (+2.5)
Kempton 7.10 Fairest Isle 3rd @ 10/1  (+4.66)
Yarmouth 2.10 Protanto upl @ 9/2 (-5pts)
Sandown 2.55 Alshmemi 3rd @ 8/1 (+14pts)
Kempton 7.10 Sweet Lavender 2nd @ 11/10 (-4pts)
Folkestone 2.50 Holiday Reading 1st @ 3/1 (+10pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Sleep Dance upl @ 12/1 (-7pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Russian Affair NR
Kempton 3.10 - Abundantly upl @ 8/1 (-10pts)
Kempton 2.40 - Darsan NR
ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)

Running Total
P/L +35pts

If the ground is as bad as the jocks are making out at Goodwood and i must admit it does look pretty testing, then Distant Memories has got to be backed in the 3.45 for 1pt @ 16/1 win and 4pts @ 11/4 place (1,2,3).

Seems to save his best racing for this time of year and will love these testing conditions when im 100% sure how my other runner in the race will take to it.

playing them both so could get expensive.

Disappointing that the occasion seemed to get to the filly I backed yesterday because the race was there for the taking looking at the result of the last at Folkestone yesterday. 100/1 winner and 2nd fav of Stoutes well out the frame.

Going to be having few slightly different bets than the 8pts place 2pts win today as I venture into handicaps and listed races just because they  are infinitely more competitive than maidens and the place part of the bets don’t always appeal in the same way.

I’m going to kick off proceedings at Goodwood in the listed race with Mandy Perrett’s Mirror Lake @ 10/1 win and 7/4 place and playing the usual half stake of 1pt by 4pts. For some reason her horses improve a stone when running at her local track and that is definitely true for Mirror Lake who has won twice and finished 2nd once in three starts here last year in competitive handicaps.  I think we can put her poor run last time simply down to her not staying the trip of 1m4f.

Shes does a few pounds to find with the very best in this field but horses at this sort of level, listed to borderline group 3 do have habit of beating each other and I don’t think there are any horses in this field that still progressing. On a track she clearly loves she can definitely get involved in the shake up here and the ground shouldn’t cause her too many problems either.

I’m always wary of backing horses like Genius Beast in the first maiden who have had one run earlier in the season then a huge break. I don’t know what the hold up has been but I do often find that when returning for their 2nd run they can be very difficult to predict. There are a host of unraced horses in the field which is another huge unknown quantity altho they don’t look the most promising bunch on paper.

Juvinal did kind of get the run of the race last time and isn’t progressing but he may have shot himself in the foot a little bit at Kempton setting a pretty slow tempo before getting out paced in the last furlong. It was a good effort at Sandown on good to soft ground when both the winner and 2nd came from well off the pace and if Hughes can be trusted to actually ride a finish she can make her experience count and give the favourite plenty to do. 1pt win and 4pts place at 6/1 and evens seems fair.

The other maiden over 1m1f looks awful outside the front 2 in the market and the Johnston and Al Zarooni pair should fight out the finish. Of the two I would be much happier to be on the Godolphin horse especially as I managed to lay a little bit of 1.71 about the Johnston horse (whoevers rick that was I’m sorry but if it wasn’t me it would have been someone else) .  But with the rest of the field looking so very average im going to chance the other Al Zarooni 2yo Samba King at around 9/1 win and 7/4 place for little 1pt by 2pts. It’s certainly guessing to an extent but his horses just come to the racecourse for the first time so fit and normally very well drilled. Hes got the 2nd string jockey and 2nd string colours on the favourite so no one can complain he’s winning out of turn,  if these two were both unraced the prices would be the other way around. I know Murgia rode the jolly first time out so that’s probably why he has kept the ride but if he was one of there really decent ones would he be given that opportunity? Bearing in mind Frankie is also at the course. He was also a massive price first time out so altho this is a guess I would at least like to think its an educated one.

This next one would be the nap today and I’m not too concerned I’ve missed the early 12/1 with 365 and hills, I’m actually surprised the dirty arber skint of somewhere didn’t spot this earlier because it has never traded near the 12/1 on offer with the firms. Mafeteng first caught my eye last year on her sole start as 2yo staying on over an insufficient 7f at Salisbury. The form has only worked out to be modest it was far from far enough on breeding and Jimmy fortune really didn’t try very hard. They didn’t go very fast in her next maiden won by the classy Mijhaar and she just got out paced, I’m also certain she would have been a mile off full fitness as all of Dunlops this year have improved massively for the first run. The 3rd run was another eye catching performance and I like that Dunlop opted to run her at Goodwood as it can be a difficult track and I have no doubt that this handicap would already have been pencilled in. Richard Hughes seems to be exempt from not having to ride a finish in maiden races so guess he was the right man for the job.  After travelling really nicely in fact much better than the eventual winner she’s dropped away in the last furlong under a tender ride. He gets in nicely at the bottom of the weights without having to compete from outside the handicap and gets a good 5 pounds and upwards from the entire field.

Hughes has to ride for the boss on an exposed one at the top and probably couldn’t do the weight anyway. All the others either look exposed or have won a maiden and got a high enough mark for doing so. Being a handicap and dealing with a competitive field I won’t be going in as heavy on the place and only expecting to get around 8/1 for win and 2/1 place. Playing 4pts win by 4pts place.

We all know who John Dunlop loves a Goodwood winner and fully expect the money to be down and Lane to be giving it the maximum, win at all costs, treatment.

The first at redcar really isn’t much of contest and whilst I really am trying to wean myself off these short ones I’m going to have a small 2pts win on Lawn Jamil at 11/8. Good performance first time out in a very strong maiden and certainly not knocked about, up in trip against trees and some fancy entries to boot.

I’m convinced Waltzing Cat (7.50 Kempton) is suddenly going to bolt up and tonight may well be the night or at least I’m willing to pay to find out at around 9/4. Up again in trip looks another step in the right direction and looked to run into a proper handicap plot of Chris Walls last time who really showed the old master how it’s done. Theres two big advantages this time around firstly Seb is back on and secondly she is drawn on the inside which you wouldn’t think makes a massive difference over 1m4f but she never managed to get on the track last time was caught at least 3 wide and still stayed on in eye taking fashion.

The 2 unexposed ones in the field are Cyber Star and Viva Diva and only time will tell how well their respective trainers have done in hiding their ability.

Not playing in either of the Kempton maidens. After declaring Sleep Dance would never win a race last week when beaten at folkestone here she is favourite next time out. You would think that would make me keen to take her on but after closer inspection she probably deserves to be at the head of the betting but whether some of these horses deserve to be called race horses is another question.

Kempton 7.50 Waltzing Cat 4pts @ 9/4
Goodwood 4.20 Mafeteng 4pts @ 8/1, 4pts place @ 2/1
Goodwood 2.35 Samba King 1pt @ 9/1, 4pts place @ 7/4
Goodwood 2.00 Juvinal 1pt @ 6/1, 4pts place @ 11/10
Goodwood 3.45 Mirror Lake 1pt @ 10/1, 4pts place @ 7/4
Redcar 2.15 Lawn Jamil 2pts @ 6/5

Just the one for me today and have to wait till the last race at Folkestone where Marahaba looks well worth chancing at 15/2 and 6/4 a place for the usual 2pts by 8pts.

She ran a good race first time out 2 at newmarket to finish 7th trying to make all up the centre of the track and was caught out racing alone. There are mixed messages about the form of the race but that is nearly always the case if you look back at maidens run a long time ago, there will always be a few that go backwards but with the frist 3 home all well above average the form can't be too bad. Obviously had her problems so taking a bit of risk but is normally a positive sign when high profile connections persevere till late in the season.

I think the other 3 in single figures are worth taking on. Kid Charlemagne back in trip doesnt really appeal and not sure of the strength of his last run at the course anyway.

This might sound harsh but Raahin is trained by Stoute who has had a terrible season by his own admission with only 3 winners this month from 47 runners and thats a big enough reason to look else where. Weakened in the closing stages at kempton last time, that was his first run for a while so it could just have been race fitness but he had no problem running a big race to finish 2nd first time out this year and that was after a much longer break. I think its more likely to be down the to yards poor form. Hills has decided to ride it over Varian's filly which is fair enough as he does have a couple of placed efforts to his name but its never an easy decision when weighing up the chances of two horses so lightly raced and from different yards. Raahin may have been reported to have been working very well but as the yard can barely send out a winner maybe hes been working better than sick horses? On the otherhand Marhaba may not have been able beat another horse at home on the gallops but then Varian has had more winners this week than Stoute has all month so who knows maybe hes been working with superstars.

Nothing negative to say about the favourite Kahraba who deserves to head to market but i do think it was a bit of funny race at Chester last time as they often are and form may not be that trustworthy.