thehappysnapper

Disappointing that the occasion seemed to get to the filly I backed yesterday because the race was there for the taking looking at the result of the last at Folkestone yesterday. 100/1 winner and 2nd fav of Stoutes well out the frame.

Going to be having few slightly different bets than the 8pts place 2pts win today as I venture into handicaps and listed races just because they  are infinitely more competitive than maidens and the place part of the bets don’t always appeal in the same way.

I’m going to kick off proceedings at Goodwood in the listed race with Mandy Perrett’s Mirror Lake @ 10/1 win and 7/4 place and playing the usual half stake of 1pt by 4pts. For some reason her horses improve a stone when running at her local track and that is definitely true for Mirror Lake who has won twice and finished 2nd once in three starts here last year in competitive handicaps.  I think we can put her poor run last time simply down to her not staying the trip of 1m4f.

Shes does a few pounds to find with the very best in this field but horses at this sort of level, listed to borderline group 3 do have habit of beating each other and I don’t think there are any horses in this field that still progressing. On a track she clearly loves she can definitely get involved in the shake up here and the ground shouldn’t cause her too many problems either.

I’m always wary of backing horses like Genius Beast in the first maiden who have had one run earlier in the season then a huge break. I don’t know what the hold up has been but I do often find that when returning for their 2nd run they can be very difficult to predict. There are a host of unraced horses in the field which is another huge unknown quantity altho they don’t look the most promising bunch on paper.

Juvinal did kind of get the run of the race last time and isn’t progressing but he may have shot himself in the foot a little bit at Kempton setting a pretty slow tempo before getting out paced in the last furlong. It was a good effort at Sandown on good to soft ground when both the winner and 2nd came from well off the pace and if Hughes can be trusted to actually ride a finish she can make her experience count and give the favourite plenty to do. 1pt win and 4pts place at 6/1 and evens seems fair.

The other maiden over 1m1f looks awful outside the front 2 in the market and the Johnston and Al Zarooni pair should fight out the finish. Of the two I would be much happier to be on the Godolphin horse especially as I managed to lay a little bit of 1.71 about the Johnston horse (whoevers rick that was I’m sorry but if it wasn’t me it would have been someone else) .  But with the rest of the field looking so very average im going to chance the other Al Zarooni 2yo Samba King at around 9/1 win and 7/4 place for little 1pt by 2pts. It’s certainly guessing to an extent but his horses just come to the racecourse for the first time so fit and normally very well drilled. Hes got the 2nd string jockey and 2nd string colours on the favourite so no one can complain he’s winning out of turn,  if these two were both unraced the prices would be the other way around. I know Murgia rode the jolly first time out so that’s probably why he has kept the ride but if he was one of there really decent ones would he be given that opportunity? Bearing in mind Frankie is also at the course. He was also a massive price first time out so altho this is a guess I would at least like to think its an educated one.

This next one would be the nap today and I’m not too concerned I’ve missed the early 12/1 with 365 and hills, I’m actually surprised the dirty arber skint of somewhere didn’t spot this earlier because it has never traded near the 12/1 on offer with the firms. Mafeteng first caught my eye last year on her sole start as 2yo staying on over an insufficient 7f at Salisbury. The form has only worked out to be modest it was far from far enough on breeding and Jimmy fortune really didn’t try very hard. They didn’t go very fast in her next maiden won by the classy Mijhaar and she just got out paced, I’m also certain she would have been a mile off full fitness as all of Dunlops this year have improved massively for the first run. The 3rd run was another eye catching performance and I like that Dunlop opted to run her at Goodwood as it can be a difficult track and I have no doubt that this handicap would already have been pencilled in. Richard Hughes seems to be exempt from not having to ride a finish in maiden races so guess he was the right man for the job.  After travelling really nicely in fact much better than the eventual winner she’s dropped away in the last furlong under a tender ride. He gets in nicely at the bottom of the weights without having to compete from outside the handicap and gets a good 5 pounds and upwards from the entire field.

Hughes has to ride for the boss on an exposed one at the top and probably couldn’t do the weight anyway. All the others either look exposed or have won a maiden and got a high enough mark for doing so. Being a handicap and dealing with a competitive field I won’t be going in as heavy on the place and only expecting to get around 8/1 for win and 2/1 place. Playing 4pts win by 4pts place.

We all know who John Dunlop loves a Goodwood winner and fully expect the money to be down and Lane to be giving it the maximum, win at all costs, treatment.

The first at redcar really isn’t much of contest and whilst I really am trying to wean myself off these short ones I’m going to have a small 2pts win on Lawn Jamil at 11/8. Good performance first time out in a very strong maiden and certainly not knocked about, up in trip against trees and some fancy entries to boot.

I’m convinced Waltzing Cat (7.50 Kempton) is suddenly going to bolt up and tonight may well be the night or at least I’m willing to pay to find out at around 9/4. Up again in trip looks another step in the right direction and looked to run into a proper handicap plot of Chris Walls last time who really showed the old master how it’s done. Theres two big advantages this time around firstly Seb is back on and secondly she is drawn on the inside which you wouldn’t think makes a massive difference over 1m4f but she never managed to get on the track last time was caught at least 3 wide and still stayed on in eye taking fashion.

The 2 unexposed ones in the field are Cyber Star and Viva Diva and only time will tell how well their respective trainers have done in hiding their ability.

Not playing in either of the Kempton maidens. After declaring Sleep Dance would never win a race last week when beaten at folkestone here she is favourite next time out. You would think that would make me keen to take her on but after closer inspection she probably deserves to be at the head of the betting but whether some of these horses deserve to be called race horses is another question.

Kempton 7.50 Waltzing Cat 4pts @ 9/4
Goodwood 4.20 Mafeteng 4pts @ 8/1, 4pts place @ 2/1
Goodwood 2.35 Samba King 1pt @ 9/1, 4pts place @ 7/4
Goodwood 2.00 Juvinal 1pt @ 6/1, 4pts place @ 11/10
Goodwood 3.45 Mirror Lake 1pt @ 10/1, 4pts place @ 7/4
Redcar 2.15 Lawn Jamil 2pts @ 6/5