Bet for day 39. 1pt E.W. Sherjawy 17.30 14-1 and 1pt E.W. Amazing Win 18.00 16-1 + 1/2pt E.W. double Both Kempton, and both B365 BOG write up to follow...

Result day 35.

Fantasy Fighter       Un Pl   -2pts

Profit / Loss                 -2pts


Total                         236 1/2pts

Bet for day 40. 2pts E.W. Hawaana 16.05 Wolverhampton 16-1 PP BOG   write up to follow.....

Result day 39.

Sherjawy         Un Pl   -2pts
Amazing Win      Un Pl   -2pts
Double           Lost    -1pt

Profit / Loss            -5pts

Total                  231 1/2 pts

It looks a very nice card up at Musselburgh today, but in truth nothing really captured my attentions in that sphere as a betting medium. I have however spotted Imo an interesting couple of contender’s on the A.W., those being Kavaloti in Kempton’s 16.45 and Celtic Charlie in the lucky last at Lingfield

      I will start with my strongest fancy out of the two Celtic Charlie, who Imo is only one of three in the line up that has any real serious winning prospect.  Hugh Taylor’s followers have firmed up the price of one of his main rivals, as well as a little cash for Keiren Fallon’s mount, allowing Celtic Charlie to drift to 4-1, which is my idea of very good value, and have decided to play him as an almost bet to nothing.
       Having already had 2 major breaks in his career this horse has obviously had his problems, but to my eye has at least retained enough ability to be able to be competitive in this type of plating class.  This horse has looked a different prospect tackling middle distance on a poly surface, and after being nibbled at in the betting off the back of a few lacklustre hurdle events, hit the cross bar for his supporters with a gallant second to another well treated rival over Kempton’s 12F. He showed that run to be no flash in the pan a couple of weeks ago on course over 13F,  only this time his supporters were rewarded with a win, and in truth could have been called the winner about half a mile out. Ian Mongan takes back over from Jemma Marshall, and this horse could still be relatively well in after being a pound wrong at the weights in each of those contests, has only been penalised 4lbs for his recent win. He is also very lightly raced for his age due to those long periods off track, and maybe colud still have a fair bit left in the locker, and as it stands I simply can’t see 3 beating him home in his present mood.

      Now onto Kavaloti for Gary Moore, who as a trainer has very few peers when it comes to readying winners around Kempton, and Kavaloti has played his part in the trainer’s decent record on track. At the age of 8 you wouldn’t expect this horse to be finding major improvement, and on his current mark of 72 looks to have his work cut out, however I’d be of that very opinion if today's race was anything else bar Kempton’s 16F, which is without a doubt the C/D he seems to always reserve his best for. His record over C/D reads 2-4-2-2-1-1-8-8-4-2-1-3, and nothing in the line up is able to hold a candle to this lad’s form at Kempton over 2 miles.
         Just recently the yard have started to string some nice form together, and when this stable starts to hit form it’s a very potent force to be reckoned with, and all runners are worth a precautionary note in the betting. Kavaloti did not pull up any trees on his reappearance in a Lingfield claimer a few weeks ago, but did finish in the position the betting suggested he could, and after any real chance was gone Amir Quinn let him come home under a hand ride, with the run certain to have blown the cobwebs off.  His usual blinkers that had been dispensed with on his recent outing go back on, along with a change of personnel in the form of George Baker, whom at least will no this lads quirks better than most. In all honesty I’ve struggled to get him out of the first 3 within this line up, and although this horse is now 8 he's another that hasn't got too many miles on the clock, and on the grand scheme of thing’s the ability he already possesses could be enough for his rivals today.

Good luck Rob

Would be worried about the unexposed 4yolds Robster tho no money for any of them so far,for me they put a spike in reading the race I have Safwan/Santera/Astrolibra at the head of things Safwan the only one showing near the head of the market,good luck anyway you,ll be back with a vengence no doubt.

Bet day 43. 1pt E.W. Requin 16.40 Bet Vic 16-1 BOG.. write up to follow.. only showing 14's on vc site, but can get 16's via atr price link...strange!

Exeter’s penultimate race is a very intriguing contest, but I do think that at 16-1 Requin represents fair value on the face of it, and it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise to see him run well at his double figured price.

    Victor Dartnall has had his yard in consistently good form for an absolute age, and it’s fair to say is a trainer who places his horses well, and may just have found a race that may play to Requin’s strengths. This horse does seem to act around Exeter having won and placed a couple of times from just those 3 attempts, and the distance at 20F is Imo his strongest trip. Although this horse’s win’s in Britain have came on better ground, in his native France did look much more at home on a very soft surface, and I personally think that today’s described going of Soft G/soft in places should be perfect for him.
     He does seem to have a habit of running well on his 3rd run back, which he has lifetime form figures of 1-1-2.  This season in soft ground at Ascot was running an excellent come back in a well contested listed event, just before departing at the second last. After travelling well through the field to stalk the leader beginning to turn in his stamina over 3 miles started to waiver, and took a very tired fall. The suggestion being that day he would have finished unplaced, with the stamina laden types in behind staying on strongly, but did show his appreciation for the going with 3 miles looking to stretch him. He does have a habit of missing his nest race out , as he did last season in January and this time round appeared to be the same story, looking to lack fluency and confidence in the jumping department, with the assumption he may have still been feeling the effects of his previous fall.


   Requin seems to be one of the more fragile types in the national hunt game, but none the less has got plenty of ability when right, and having only had 16 lifetime starts to date at the age of 7, has still got plenty of potential and time on side to take his game to the next level.  Denis O’Regan also seems to have a good understanding of this animal, and having only ridden him on 4 occasions can boast form figures of 1-2-1-3, with 3 of those on course, and has an excellent over all record for the stable.

Bet for day 46. 2pts E.W. Or de Grugy 15.10 Kelso 20-1 Ladbrokes BOG...write up to follow...

Good luck with that one Robster. Excellent write up.

Just checking up on you robster, going well still great stuff.

Well done.

Result day 46.


Or de Grugy      Un Pl   -4pts

Profit / Loss            -4pts


Total                    228 pts

Although all firms have yet to price up, I for one am not prepared to let the 10-1 go that’s currently on offer with **** presently, and if he does go bigger I would most certainly be tempted to back him again.

        Having put this horse up Lto at Sandown he showed enough to keep him on side, and ran a very good race all things considered. That day he was slightly out paced mid race, but Ruby kept him in his rhythm and as you would expect a man of his ability and experience never panicked, and after dropping through to be in the rear echelons the horse's stamina was seen to good effect at the business end, most definitely bumping into one in the form of ex pointer Hold On Julio. Tomorrow he looks to have the perfect underfoot conditions of soft / heavy in places, and simply travels on this going as good as any horse I’ve seen to date. His life time record of races with softer ground or worse reads1-1-1-1-UR-1-1-1-1-1-2-F-1-4, and this is most definitely his time of year, particularly in the month of February where his life time form reads, 1-1-1-1-1.
       Although this horse is not getting any younger, he has at least proved recently there is still plenty of ability left in those old bones, and considering the mean age of the runners in the race tomorrow to be 9.75 years old, at 11 he is by no means the senior citizen of the contest. Harry Derham has been given the leg up to no doubt alleviate his burden of 11-12, and his 7lb claim may well make a big difference to his winning chance. He is giving weight to plenty of inform horses, but Neptune Collonges Imo is very much more than a class above anything in this line up, with plenty prominent in the betting having to put up personal bests to win, I  simply cant understand why this horse is that far behind them in the market .

Tomorrow Ascot puts on a very nice card, with the feature race being the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot chase, where Tatenen and I’msingingtheblues step up in class to take each other on, and in truth although they have both got reasonable records at Ascot look up against it for win purposes, but do look interesting frame contenders. I am however not remotely interested in their respective chances tomorrow, but I am very keen on another horse involved in the race they ran in Lto, that horse being Tullamore Dew who contests the previous event at 14.25.

   Despite running 2lb wrong in the weights I’m fairly keen on his chances, and do believe given the right conditions a big handicap is well within his compass. Tomorrow this horse steps back up in trip, and although he has never won over the distance has always threatened to stay this type of distance if putting in an error free round of fencing. He did come onto my radar when contesting the Hennessy, a race I’ve viewed plenty lately regarding some previous selections. That day he was travelling fairly powerfully just in behind the speed before turning in, with plenty rivals around him being galloped ragged by the pace Carruthers was setting in a truly run race, but inevitably found very little as his stamina faltered over the truly run 27F trip .

    Lto shaped like he was a horse that was very much running into form, having been given a relatively patient ride moved through the ranks fairly obscurely, and got to the coat tails of the leaders turning in still going fairly well. However when he was angled around the pace setters 2 out he softly unseated his pilot, with maximum effort just to be asked of him, giving me the impression he would have had a say in the finish if he'd stayed on his feet. Tomorrow the familiar figure of Liam Treadwell is back in the plate, and with the Nick Gifford yard having plenty running well lately, he's every chance of out running his double figured price. Tomorrow the ground and track should be perfect, but will need a very canny ride from Mr Treadwell to get this yardage, but Imo is capable of a very bold show if his jumping holds out.

well done rob and a fantastic write up, its what the forum should be about.

gl

WD therobster  - 2 v close 2nds and a nice profit -

Two great bets Rob, nearly hit the jackpot but fantastic profit all the same..

good tipping

Great stuff well done.