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for the new year (2)
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Excellent write up and execution rob...tom segal mk2
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Brilliant Rob, top notch
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wd
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Bet for day 67. 2pts win Baharat 14-1 Bet Vic & 1pt Win Lord Theo 20-1 W Hills, both BOG…….
……..Tomorrow’s 15.40 at Lingfield, and I have had a couple of horses in my note book that both go in this event, and because of the prices I’m willing to have a small win on each. I will start with Baharat for the Richard Guest yard, who has been given a few hurdling assignments in the build up to the new year, but Imo subsequently cut no ice in those events. He has since been given a short break from those exertions, and made a recent return to more familiar territory over course Lto. That day he was contesting a 13F race, and breeding suggested he would be found wanting over this trip on the level, and that reality was indeed realised. The handicapper has been fairly kind by cutting him some slack after that return to fibre sand, and can now compete 6lb lower than winning over Wolverhampton’s 9F around this time last year. Connections have been quick to bring him back in trip from Lto, and it’s fair to assume he may well just have needed it. The yard seem to pop in winners when you least expect them, and look to be rolling back into some sort of form recently. Martin Harley continues his association with this gelding, and with plenty of pace angles in this event he should get a lovely sit from where he is boxed up, and if the McKay cash comes for him, and lets face it their due a tilt in the ring…. 12-1 will look massive come post time. Now onto Nick Littmoden’s inmate Lord Theo, who has also slipped back to a very attractive sort of mark, and also returns to familiar territory in Lingfields 10F. He has now slipped back down the weights under his last winning mark, and although he hardly looks set to take advantage of that from his performance at Kempton Lto, I think the way tomorrow’s race may pan out could be much more suitable. He is more than capable of popping up if in the mood, and returning to this course for the first time since his last win, could just be the tonic he needs. |
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Rocking Rob
+ 3 pts to the good over ISP WD  |
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Top work Rob.
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that baharat has two entry,s for the jumps in the next few days robster , maybe not done with the jumps game
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Result day 66.
Clash Duff Won 7-1 (10's adv) + 12 1/2pts Profit / Loss + 12 1/2pts Total 236 pts Not quite sure what price the withdrawl of Flying Award was with Whills, but no rule 4 was applied to my bet. I will be happy to deduct from my running total if anyone can advise this should have been the case. |
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I didnt get any reduction on my bet either, it was 9% reduction on here.
Well done |
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With BOG, and now this, things are swinging away from BF towards the books. Several trying to win back business.
I looked at oddschecker after the withdrawal, and none had been going more than 10's on the nr. |
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Bet day 69. 1pt E.W. Dreams Of Glory 16-1 generally BOG with B365....
Today’s start to the Wolverhampton card sees a few old foes renewing rivalry, and I’m willing to take a chance that Dreams of Glory is much better than his performance Lto, and may be half decent value at his double figure odds of 16-1. This entire son of Resplendant Glory looks all about speed, and may well be suited to a very fast 5F, and although he looks best on top of the ground did win fairly convincing over C/D last April on his reappearance, and is still very much unexposed on a poly surface(which his sire handled). Lto on his seasonal bow over Lingfield’s 6 ran a little disappointing, after jumping smartly and showing excellent early pace was still travelling with a degree of comfort just before turning in, but seemed to hit a brick wall at the furlong marker looking in desperate need of the run. However given the fact he was still ridden to the line under hands and heels despite having no real chance suggests that connections wanted him to have a decent blow, and have given him a few weeks to get him ready for a crack at today, and the stable are very able to ready a one. He now steps back in trip from debut, and will strip much fitter for his seasonal bow. He has a fairly nice pitch to jump from, and although there is plenty of pace to his inner, he looks capable of heading affairs once again. With fitness less of an issue and a sharper test he could well be the one they will all have to pull in, and off 62 he should still be feasibly handicapped to figure given he still could have more improvement to come than most. |
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Result day 67.
Baharat Un Pl -2pts Lord Theo Un Pl -1pt Profit / Loss -3pts Total 233 pts |
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Bet day 70. 2pts E.W. Grove Pride 14.05 Sandown 16-1 generally 1pt E.W. Art Professor 15.15 Sandown 33-1 B365 + 1/2pt E.W double with B365 all BOG... write up to follow....
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good luck rob,nice to see you still here and doing your stuff
 i backed sire de grugy e.w today.gl |
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Well it’s hardly the calm before the Storm, with a couple of excellent handicaps at Sandown to get us in the mood for the main event(s) next week at Cheltenham, and hopefully today we can procure the coffers for next weeks heavy financial burden.
I will start with Henry Daly’s Grove Pride, who looked to have been acquired after his second in and ordinary cork bumper, but I personally think they have invested for the future, and anything he has done from then until he goes chasing will no doubt be seen as a bonus. Current connections have given him plenty of time form his debut under rules, and their patient approach with this impressive looking son of Double Trigger paid dividends Lto at Ascot, where he won very impressively with few decent novices toiling in his wake, including the well thought of Nicky Henderson inmate Hadrians Approach, who he had beaten all ends up before falling at the last. This horse Imo is going to make a smashing 3mile+ chaser in time, and the further he goes the better he will be, and judging on his stamina laden pedigree he could even be a potential National horse in time. Just like his sire he doesn’t posses a change of gear, but will no doubt be suited to Sandowns 20F today, which arguably presents as his most testing assignment to date. He’s obviously been given a hike in the weights in view of Lto’s demolition, and could well be venerable to a few with potential and light weights, however I think Grove Pride also has plenty of improving left to do, and may once again prove a tough nut to crack. Now onto Art Professor who at 33-1 is simply too big not to have an interest, and now reverts back to a distance he has a very good record over, and should no doubt get a true run affair which he will need. Venetia Williams continues to churn out the winners, and Aidan Coleman has been the main beneficiary of her good form. Aidan Coleman also has a very good record when riding Art Professor, from 4 attempts in big field handicaps has 2 wins and a 2nd , and the other unplaced run was off the back of over a 2year absence. The Imperial Cup is always one of the hardest conundrums to work out, but with more plenty more positives than negatives regarding Art Professor’s chances I’m willing to indulge at 33-1 in a very wide open contest. |
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Aye Aye rawcs, nice to have you back... hope your finding a few?.. the weight with Sire De Grugy is a big concern for me, but stranger things have happened. GL
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hi rob
yeah i agree about the weight fella.not doing to bad and have got into laying in the last few months.gl robster and catch you soon |
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Result day 69.
Dreams Of Glory Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -2pts Total 231 pts |
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Bet day 72. 2pts E.W. Rhum 15.40 Stratford 15-2 generally BOG…..
………The Cheltenham festival is almost within touching distance, and with it comes the best 4 day’s of national hunt you will witness all year, but in the calm before the storm I believe there is one that is worth an interest, that’s the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained Rhum. This horse is far from a natural over fences, and as a second season novice you would have thought the penny may have dropped by now, but in all of his races thus far during the current season, at times has far from convinced. Having said that he has time on his side, and although he does not have the jumping consistency during his races, I personally think connections should be able to iron this out in time, and in doing so he should make up into a reasonable handicapper. Connections obviously must feel he will make up into a stayer, having already had a crack at Exeter’s 31F last season, and Imo was staying on adequately enough to suggest he would have placed behind Drybrook Bedouin, and his run before that in March was arguably in with a winning chance when unseating at the last. He does appear to run well when given a break in his racing, and has had a couple of months off since his last run behind The Falklander on soft ground at Ffos Las, where the small field lead to a relatively pedestrian pace which would not have suited. I also think he appreciates a decent surface, and will hopefully get a decent pace to take him along, which he will need to show his best at the business end. The yard look’s to be in good order, as they usually are when heading towards the festival, and at 15-2 looks reasonably priced for E.W. players such as myself. |
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Result day 70.
Art Professor Un Pl -2pts Grove Pride Un Pl -4pts Double Lost -1pt Profit / Loss -7pts Total 224pts. |
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Bet day 72. 2pts E.W. Baile Anrai 14.40 Cheltenham 16-1 BetVic BOG write up to follow....
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Well the greatest show on earth has arrived, and all the gambles in waiting that have been simmering over the last few weeks, months or even from this time last year, will be brought well and truly to boiling point over the next four days, with the vast majority of those connections being bitterly disappointed. Today I’m hoping the Ian Williams stable does not fall into that majority, and that Baile Anrai will deliver the goods in what looks a campaign that has been geared up for the festival.
Since his Chase debut under rules back in November this horse has done nothing but improve, and Imo remains very much on an upward curve. That novice chase was also contested by Silviniaco Conti, whom having been put in his place by Cue Card proceeded to win that contest with ease, with Baile Anrai well beaten when falling. Baile Anrai then took some low level novice events on route to the Reynoldstown Novice Chase in February, and although an unconsidered 28-1 shot, he was still travelling with a degree of purpose covered up just behind the speed before turning in, with Harry Skelton still having to ask for the maximum before his fall, and was in amongst some very talented novices when doing so, including Silviniaco Conti. The fall was too far out to make an assumption he would have troubled the judge in any capacity, but he was staying on nicely, showing a very willing attitude in doing so. Looking through his C.V. it’s apparent he appreciates decent ground, and although Cheltenham have watered I’d be amazed if it did not ride on the quicker side of what is described. He also ticks a few boxes on the stat’s front, and out of the last 12 running’s 50% have carried 10-06 or less to victory, and only 3winners out of the last 17 renewals have carried more than 11st, and 4 out of the last 10 have went to an 8yrold. His jumping will undoubtedly be tested to the full around here, but he did have a cut at most of his fences Lto, and if he does put in an exemplary round of fencing today could be in the thick of things off his very light weight. |
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Result day 72.
Rhum Un Pl -4pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 220 pts |
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Bet day 74. 2Pts E.W. Balgarry 16.00 2pts E.W. 9-1 Boil 5places Vendor 2pts E.W. 5-1 Bet vic 5places.. 1pt E.W. Double with Bet Vic 8’s + 5’s both 5places + 1pt E.W. saver Poole Master 16.00 14-1 whill (4places) 12pts staked in total
It’s hardly original but having gone through the two biggest handicaps of the day, I really have struggled to get both probable market leaders beaten, and on closer inspection they also look very much the best handicapped in both their particular events. Those beast’s being Balgarry in the 16.00, and Vendor in the 16.40. I will start with Balgarry, who is due to go up an extra 11lbs from Monday, and naturally you would assume he would be a stand out for that alone. However considering that was his first run after a 557 day absence, and in thrashing a potentially well treated rival in Nampour, who as we know only found Paint Ball to good under his penalty in the Imperial Cup on Saturday, making Balgarry look today like he has best part of 16-20lbs in hand of the assessor. Saying that his stable companion Poole Master also goes into the well handicapped category, and do doubt a fair few others who take him on. I’m certain this stiffer test of stamina will be no problem, and I’m certain connections would have other options at this year’s festival, but have decided to step him up today. 5yrolds have took this for the last two renewals, and in the last 6 running’s have a 50% strike rate, and should prove very tough to beat at the foot of the weights today, with his stable companion looking set to push him close. Now onto Vendor in the 16.00 for Alan King, and the assessor may have dropped a monumental bullock in allocating him a rating of 129 on handicap debut. I’m fairly sure that the Fred Winter has been his long term target, and no doubt has been kept ticking over at home waiting for this. Anyone who saw him win Lto would be hard pressed not to get carried away, and the mere fact he was very well punted to beat a very good yard stick in Tango De Juilley under in all essence a hand ride (albeit receiving weight), very much gave the impression the stable new they had a horse with a very big engine. Tango De Juilley paid his conqueror a very big compliment, when not beat to far Nto in the Triumph hurdle trial behind a few140+ rated animals, and it’s fair to say they would be among some of the leading juveniles of this year. Again I’m certain it will not be all plain sailing, with others looking fairly treated on the balance of things, but reading between the lines Alan King is very sweet on this lad's chances, and could prove to be miles better than his current rating. |
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Bet day 75. 1pt E.W. Barwell Bridge 14.05 14-1 & 1pt E.W. Fine Parchment 16.00 25-1 + ½ pt E.W. double both with B365 both 5 places &BOG…..
Well going into the 3rd day, and no doubt like a fair few others could do with a welcome change of luck. Having gone through the big handicaps (14.05 & 16.00) I have skittled it down to about 2/3 in both contests, but I’m just going to play 1 in each and hope I’ve selected the right horse in each race. I will start with the 14.05, where I do like Buena Vista again to defy statistics and win this for the 3rd year in succession. However at a single figured price I’d rather look elsewhere, and have decided to go with the Warren Greatrex trained Barwell Bridge, who may have maid the required progression to run another big race. This lad did contest last years renewal, and ran a very credible 6th as a 5yrold in doing so, and after having a very light campaign this time round looks to been targeted at this race once again. Although he has not added to his maiden hurdle he’s ran some very credible races, including a very respectable 5th in the Triumph Hurdle the previous festival. All 3 runs at Cheltenham have been very sound, and does look suited to the better ground March usually brings. Now onto the 16.00 where I can’t resist having a bet on Fine Parchment at his very big price, and will be hoping Noel Fehily can double up on the day. He has won in March for the last 2 seasons, and although he has won on a variety of surfaces, all of his decent form has come on better ground. He also seems feasibly handicapped on the balance of form, and does look to be coming to hand at just the right time, so with the yard among the winners lately he could run into some place money at very rewarding odds. |
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Results day 73-74
Baile Anrai Un Pl -4pts Balgarry Un Pl -4pts Poole Master Un Pl -2pts Vendor Pl + 1/4pt Double Lost -2pts Profit / Loss - 11 3/4pts Total 208 1/4pts |
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good luck today robster. love what your doing :)
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All the best Rob
Buena Vista & Fine Parchment for me, 33/1 with hills on the latter earlier this morning. |
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Did see the 33-1 available with Hills early doors Pumphol, however was hoping that a few more would go that and 365 would have had to follow suit... a similar scenario with Barwell Bridge and the 16's on offer I suppose. Just think the concession of 5 places very handy given the size of the fields etc.. GL
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Bet day 76. 2pts E.W. Citzenship 8-1 Bet Fred + 1pt E.W Olofi 14-1 B365@ 8.30 14.05. 1pt E.W. Astracad 17.15 + 2 x 1/2pt E.W. doubles with B365 14's 9's & 10's 10's with Bfred.
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write up to follow ^^^^ 14's & 10's with 365 for one double
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Well after my bank has taken a recent pummeling, I’m hoping today's the day the Cheltenham tide will turn for me, having gone through the cards there are only 3 that interest me, with 2 of those in the same race. They are Olofi & Citizenship in the 14.05 and Astracad in the lucky last (16.40).
Having put Olofi up twice from his last 3 run’s I’m not going to desert him today, and the form of his last few run’s have all been good, particularly his last run at Newbury. I’m sure he will finish in front of Raya Star at the weights, and looks set to give his running on a track he acts on. The other one in the race that could prove to be anything is the Jessica Harrington trained Citizenship. He has made rapid progress through the handicap this season in Ireland, and has just about scraped in at the foot of the weights for todays contest, and wont mind the hustle and bustle of the huge field. Both horses come into this in very good heart, and both of their previous races look to be working out extremely well. At 6 they are both the right sort of age, and at their current ratings also fit the bill on recent trends, and Citizen can also boast a novice/Irish angle which also statistically have done well in very recent times. Now onto the Grand Annual, where Nigel Twiston-Davies looks to have targeted Astracad, and hope to emulate Pigeon Islands success in the 2010 renewal for his owner Raymond Mould. This horse made up into a reasonable standard of hurdler, but I’m certain will scale greater heights regarding his mark over fences judging on the steady progression he’s already made. He did win on debut very nicely at Perth, but found giving weight to Champion Court (who UR at Perth) Nto all too much, and in November was no match for Al Ferof off level’s, but binoculars were needed for the 3rd home. He then went back to Cheltenham for his last race, and took a race he looked destined to win(for sponsor), having been sent to the front a little too soon showed great tenacity to get peg back Rileyev, who looked nailed on to collect. I’m certain he would have been put away for the festival, and does seem to run well when fresh, and his rating of 145 could still be on the conservative side given how his novice form is working out, along with natural improvement. |
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while your writing all this robster you are missing the birds singing and the blue sky outside.
there is a light that never goes out |
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Like it CharmingMan, however the ****cat Dolls could be singing outside in a heat wave, It would not shift me away from a pc and the T.V. on Cheltenham week, GL with yours sir.
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can't say p u s s y !!
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or Gui nness!!
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Guinness
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Guinness
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ssycat Dolls appear to test your resolve and I will be your wingman