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for the new year (2)
for the new year (2)
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LOL, always used to blank it out in all of my writings if I mentioned guinness!!
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Bet day 77. 2pts E.W. Posh Bird 15.20 Uttoxeter 9-1 now with B365 BOG... write up to follow...
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Good luck Rob, picked mine out yesterday & it turned into prisewise
 so will be looking elsewhere. |
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I know the feeling, had my eye on Basford Bob this morning, good record on track along with trainer, back on his last winning hurdle mark etc.. etc.. considered grabbing the 22's with Coral but it went, as did the 20's 16's 14's very quickly.... low and behold Hugh Taylor... A watching brief for me now.
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Well after taking a pasting at a fantastic Cheltenham festival, I’m well and truly on a recovery mission, and I’m hoping Uttoxeter can be a place of sanctuary for my ever diminishing bank.
I will start with the Midlands National, and with Clash Duff now out of the race the quandary that I had no longer exists, and now it’s simply a straight forward choice of Posh Bird, trained by Chris (Rambo) Grant and ridden by Lucy Alexander. This mare has looked a different prospect now tackling extreme distances, and ran an excellent race when just going down to an improving type in the Eider Lto. That day Brian Hughes hunted her around at the rear for most of the journey, and the way she sauntered through the pack, you’d have been forgiven if you thought she’d just joined in at the turn for home. She was then nursed to the front under very tender handling, and at first glance appeared to be outstayed by the very well punted Portrait King, but I have my own opinion regarding that and other performances during the finish to her races. When she won over 30F at Catterick in January, after getting to the front after the last and coming under a ride her ears went back, and carried her tail awkwardly flashing it at least on one occasion. On a lesser extent over a much shorter trip Nto at Ayr she seemed to again do this, after joining Mister Marker at the last coming under a ride again looked awkward, but was at least close enough to that horse to go after him again. That was also evident Lto in the Eider, from pinging the last and going a few lengths up, her ears were flat back and the tail was as straight as an iron bar, Imo at the head of affairs much too soon. If Lucy Alexander gets this mare switched off from the frenetic gallop there usually is in this contest, and times her challenge nicely, in theory off the same mark as her plate run(with claim) Imo it’s her's to loose receiving weight from all opponents. |
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Result day 75 & 76.
Barwell Bridge Un Pl -2pts Fine Parchment Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -1pt Olofi Un Pl -2pts Citizenship Un Pl -4pts Astracad Un Pl -2pts Doubles Lost -2pts Profit / Loss -15pts  Don't you just love CheltenhamTotal 193 1/4pts |
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Plate run = Eider ^^^ Just in the Newcastle zone!
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Excuse the pun Rob a Pitmans typing error
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Bet day 84. 2pt E.W. Premier Loco 15.25 Lingfiel 6-1 Bet Vic 1/4 odds a place BOG..write up to follow...
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The Winter Derby looks a fairly competitive renewal, but with the vast majority bringing top handicap/listed form to the table I can’t get away from the chances of the very classy Premier Loco, regardless of the 10F trip.
Having made the transition from Listed company to group level a few seasons ago, this horse has consistently tackled Group 2/3’s with the odd group 1 from then until present day, and has acquitted himself very well in plenty of those contest’s. For an older horse he has held his form very well indeed, and have struggled within the current line up to identify a horse that could finish within a few lengths of Canford Cliffs at the top of his game at Group 1 level, which Premier Loco has done on both his attempts in that class of race at a mile. This horse has only ran once over 10F, ironically it was when contesting the 2009 renewal, and Imo was still finding close home and was unlucky not to have won that particular contest. Unlike a few of his rivals at the head of the market he is proven at race speed on a poly surface, and can run well when fresh. He did in fact run well in Meydan on his reappearance last season, when finishing a credible 4th in a group 2 over a mile, and has a fairly decent record of coming back from 90+ days off. On ratings he does look very much the one to beat, with the exception of the mare Sooraah who may need more time to get over her Dubai venture. George Baker knows this horse extremely well, and from stall 11 is not ideally berthed, however Premier Loco does poses the tactical speed for George to work with, and hopefully he can get him handy and covered up after breaking, and looks very much the one to beat if doing so. |
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Result day 77.
Posh Bird Un Pl -4pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 189 1/4pts |
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well done rob
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Well done sir...Turned the corner!!
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Wd Rob
Good to see you back & rejuvenated  |
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wd
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Great summary rob. Everything GB spoke about after the race is in your review.
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Bet day 85. 1pt E.W. Outlaw Tom 16.10 Hexham 13-2 VCbet & PP BOG...
Due to time restraints I'm having to summarise his chance, basically acts on good decent ground, has won further than this on course and has a solid record over today’s distance. Has recently blew the cobwebs off at Newcastle after a 3 month break, and that race is at least throwing some worth while form up. Trainer could not be in better form, and the lad up is riding on the crest of a wave, and I'd be amazed if he could not figure in this contest given the opposition with his mark of 112 looking fairly workable. |
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YOUR ABOUT EARLY FELLA. . . . NICE STUFF AS USUAL.
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well done rob.
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wd again !!!
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Hooray, just like the buses, you wait ages for a winner then they all come along together! Well done Robster!
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brilliant
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Aye stewarts typical regarding the winners, hopefully I have stopped the rot of loosers etc, and can build up my bank..... I always seem to do ok after shutting up shop for a little, this was also prominent in last seasons analysis as well, I maybe best fresh
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Good to see you back in the groove again Robster
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my shot gun licence arrived yesterday - it aint half cheered me up.
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Bet for day 86. 1pt E.W. Counting House 16.30 Towcester 8-1 generally(B365 4-1+ feature race) BOG, write up to follow....
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Having perused some of the early priced races I believe I’ve spotted a little value in Jim Old's chestnut gelding Counting House, who is ridden by Jason Maguire.
This horse is potentially a wolf in sheep’s clothing in this line up, as his shrewd trainer takes a proverbial nose dive in class with him, which proved to be just the ticket last season. Looking through his previous form you will ascertain he has not been the easiest to train, and looks to have spent plenty of time on the sidelines with injury. However after coming from the flat a maiden his second race over timber was the triumph hurdle, and if memory serves Jim Old is not the type of gentleman that is in the business of squandering entry monies to such races without at least having a reasonable chance, however the horse did not justify that particular entry. After a few novice run’s for experience connections again pitched him back into a decent level at Cheltenham in March 2008( listed )where he ran a fairly sound race. Tomorrow he will coming back off a 120day break, almost identical to the way he was campaigned the previous season, and again was dropped to this class when making a mockery of a 25F handicap on decent ground at Newbury. He has disappointed in the meantime in much better races at Cheltenham, and has been dropped a few pounds in the handicap as a result, and looks for all the world to be a decent ground performer. Jason Maguire is the man on board, and it’s fair to say he’s beginning to be recognised as a bit of a household name. He also seems the man to get the best out of this horse and renews the partnership for the first time since winning on him approximately 12 months ago, he also has a decent time of it for the stable in general, and particularly of the last few seasons where he has been only called upon by Jim Old sparingly, but usually to good effect. |
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Well done rob
Missed this one Good luck |
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Result day 84 & 85.
Premio Loco Won 5-1(6's adv) + 15 pts Outlaw Tom Won 6-1(13-2 adv) + 7 3/4pts Profit / Loss + 22 3/4pts Total 212 pts |
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WD the Robster in with you on Counting House also General Ting who has bits bobs in better races. good luck for to-day.
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VWD Rob
Good luck today |
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Bet for day 87. 1pt E.W. Bedouin Bay 16.30 Southwell 14-1 Whill BOG write up to follow....
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Only one horse get’s my interest tomorrow, that’s the Alan Mccabe trained Bedoiun Bay, ridden by the very useful 3lb claimer Declan Cannon.
Bedoiun Bay strikes me as a very frustrating horse for his trainer to place, having started life off on these shores for connections back in November 2010, was tried over 3 different distances in quick succession, and within the space of 4 outings had taken in all 3 British poly surfaces, but did however pick up a small race off a mark of 77 for Rosie Jessop within those said races. He was kept fairly busy last year, mixing the flat with summer then winter jumping, and it has to be said with a modicum of success. It is however his last couple of runs on the fibre sand that has swayed me into a small interest, and Imo has showed improved form for the switch to the surface. Having run in the same race that Admirable Duque and Lock Master fought out the finish on course over 12F in January, he looked to take to the surface fairly well with Martin Harley riding his finish up the un-favoured far rail, keeping on well enough all things considered. He then proceeded to run a very nice race Nto on the surface, when finishing runner up to the impressive Abergavenny over 2miles in a “jumpers for bumpers” affair. After travelling supremely well for a long way just got outstayed from the top of the run in, possibly having his stamina a wee bit stretched on the level at that distance. Tomorrow’s distance of 14F on this surface could be ideal, and with the claimer up meets those who renew rivalry on 13lbs(even with lads 7lb claim) & 7lbs respectively for about 3 ½ lengths. The yard also look like they are coming back into a purple patch of form, and I simply cant have this horse 10pts bigger than Admirable Duque at these revised terms, and could prove to be decent E.W. value at 14-1. |
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Result day 86.
Counting House Pl 9-2(8'sadv-R4) + 1/2pt Profit / Loss + 1/2pt Total 212 1/2pt |
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WD robbo. Great work as always
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Bet for day 90. 2pts E.W. Hi Dancer 16.20 Wehterby 11-1 B365 (4-1+ offer) write up to follow.....
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Well having once again perused the priced up races for tomorrow, I’m prepared to get on Hi Dancer early doors at his double figured price, which Imo is a little more than a fair reflection of his chance, in a race that doesn’t look like it would take much winning.
He could hardly be described as a model of consistency over the years, but over his last few hurdle campaigns seems to have had fairly little deviation regarding his mark, and has usually operated at a mark of 110 give or take 5lbs or so. Tomorrow he has been cut some slack from the assessor, and can now run off his lowest mark in an age 105, and also has the additional assistance of the yards 10lb claimer. He also appears fairly adaptable as regards the ground, however his last 2 wins in this sphere have came on good decent ground, and both at tomorrows distance of 17F, both claimer ridden off marks of 108 & 107 respectively. Tomorrow he also goes back to Wetherby, a course in which he appears to act around, and is 4 from 10 at the distance. March also seems to be a good month for him, and has won in the month for the last 2 seasons. In fact most of this horse’s good form has came spring through to summer, and both of his recent runs previously have not be devoid of promise, jumping and travelling for a long way with a degree of purpose, looking very much like he is beginning to come to hand. Ben Haslam has also been out in the cold over the last few months, but has at least a recent winner to his name, hopefully an indication the yard is on the verge of some form. |
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Result day 87.
Bedouin Bay Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -2pts Total 210 1/2pts |
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Brilliant. Well done.
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