Great pick again Rob!

unfortunately the good threads get lost in all the shoite


very well done Rob

top stuff

Another fine winner..well done mate..sluiced up

well done rob

wd. Great tipping.Stay focussed.

Great stuff again robster

vwd

Tomorrow sees the return of the flat (turf), and with it the first two cavalry charges of the season, those being the Spring Mile (Lincoln consolation) and the main event itself, The William Hill sponsored Lincoln. To be perfectly honest you could look at both of these races over and over again, and possibly have at least 5-8 you can’t get off the short list for whatever reason. That is most definitely been the case for myself, but I’m going to put my neck on the block with a pair of Dandy Nicholls inmate’s, and only the fullness of time will tell if the correct decision has been made.

   I will start with Snow Bay who runs in the consolation race at 14.05, who is starting his turf campaign slightly earlier than normal, but because of the exertions from a busy campaign last season has had the winter off, and as a consequence comes here a very fresh horse. He has won both his seasonal debuts on turf for the last 2 years in April, and does appear to be a horse to catch in the early part of his campaign. He has steadily improved with racing and age, in 2009 he was a 70+ horse, 2010 a 80+horse and after an excellent start to his 2011 campaign was a 90+ horse, and possibly only a few pounds off at his peak  a crack at some listed events. He now finds himself through some poor late form last season on a mark only 1lb higher than his last success, and if tuned up tomorrow is very much the type to not go down without a fight in a big field.

Now onto Lowther, who’s chances appear a little less obvious, but has also slipped back down to a mark he can be competitive off. His form on course is not great, but his best form at Doncaster was when 7th in this contest last year off 102, and possibly did not get the breaks at the right time, which would only have been the difference of another placing or 2 if truth be known. Although he has been campaigned over 7F or shorter consistently during his career, he has run some excellent races over a mile+, and many of those contests have been in big fields. Lifetime record in mile + handicaps reads 2-3-2-1-1-7-3-4-6, with some very good runs coming in this class on top of the ground. He is obviously a risky proposition at present given his recent run in Dubai, however at 50-1 given the complexity of this contest he could easily squeeze into a place with the yard looking like their coming back into some form.

Well done Rob and thanks for turning my week around! I have been following your posts for a couple of months now and had backed Hi ~Dancer in the past - on reading your write up lumped on and turned round a bad week. Nice to read a genuine post with no bu11sh1t and no 'look at me im a legend' nonsense. In fact the thread title shows you are not in it for the glory - just a nice guy who is very good at what he does - cheers mate.

Result day 90.

Hi Dancer     Won 11-1 (adv)           + 27 1/2pts

Profit / Loss                                       + 27 1/2pts

Total                                                    238 pts


I feel very humbled by some of those comments guy’s, and Bigal that’s exactly who I am, an ordinary working class guy with an opinion on horse racing. I really do think the likes of Tom Segal, Hugh Taylor, and Gerald Delamare but to name but a few people are regularly/deservedly getting recognition for their achievements,  and rightly so they have a huge following. If they are premiership class, I’d be sitting in the championship (possibly), and nice of you to say so Mange but I’m nowhere near the standard required for a column which those guys regularly give justice too, in terms of profiting and reading.

Ps. Big Al you should give the MANL thread a look over in the "your competitions" section a visit, some very good guys tipping winners on a regular basis... not that I personally do, but all well worth following Imo.

Echo the thoughts of everyone else robster, fantastic thread, going really well.  Good luck today.

With you on Snow Bay. Whilst not sure about Lowther, tactical 7F speed may be crucial at the end if, as is entirey possible, this isn't the normal cavalary charge

A nice class 2 sprint to get the teeth into, and after going through the probables I simply can’t get away from the chances of Docofthebay, who at 11-1 is a few points bigger in the betting than I expected.

        As an outsider looking in It appears connections have teed this horse up nicely to hit the turf season running, having already taken in a couple of very good listed events on the A.W. as a stepping stone to this race, and both of those run’s were very promising. In both of those contest due to not breaking well found himself a little further back than ideal, but in both contests after having to sit and suffer made pleasing late gains, and having took those races in at least can tick the box of fitness assured. Another thing that appears in his favour today is his ability to compete in big field handicaps, and has a reasonably good record overall when contesting these huge field events. 

       This horse has not had that many attempts at 6F, and I thought he ran a couple of solid races at this distance in defeat during spring last year, when not beaten far at Newmarket or York in 2 well contested heats off 95. His overall record at Doncaster is not standout, however has run some solid enough races without winning, including when 6th in last years Lincoln 0ff 97, and was unlucky not to have won a 7F class 2 at the back end of last season. His rookie handler is persisting with 6F for now, which Imo is a wise decision given his unexposed profile over this trip. I’m not a great judge of the draw, however I believe his starting position is a good one given the way they raced yesterday over the straight course. I’m also certain his ability to stay further will be a major positive, as he does like to race prominently and should most definitely benefit from the break neck pace this type of event provides, with his mark of 93 looking fairly feasible.

I think the maximum free bet you get with them is a nifty robster... I might wrong but it may be prudent to enquire first.

Been following your thread recently rob and it's a real gem in this forum.

I like your write ups and admire your disciplined approach to your betting.

Too many people fail to realise it's a marathon not a sprint.

Continued good luck.

I can relate to that.

In this game you are constantly learning.In my early days on here I thought it was too easy laying etc.

Couple of losses and a bit of chasing led to heavy losses to be honest.

I've learned the hard way that discipline is the key.

Thankfully we're still here.

Best of luck today rob.

Was wondering that myself TNOP. Seems better at jumps, but I've not done any sums!

I've no preference TNOP, as for the second part some of my biggest doubles over the years have been in sprint handicaps, but recently the jumpers have been good to me, swings and roundabouts I suppose.

Tomorrow’s 15.30 at Sedgefield, where no doubt recent winner on this thread Hi Dancer looks set to once again give his running, however his revised mark of 112 has always just about been beyond him previously, and like in previous recent attempts may struggle to double up.

       Hi Dancer is also fairly cramped odds to attempt his follow up, and making one or two others within the field’s odds look slightly bigger from a punting perspective. Imo Amazing King looks to be priced up just about right on his achievements thus far, and has a less than inspiring record over this trip to boot. However saying that he is a bit of a creature of habit, and will appreciate the much quicker ground he will get at Sedgefield tomorrow. The emphasis on my creature of habit statement derives from his winter break into his spring campaign, and after shutting up shop in Autumn for his last 3 campaigns has came back to need a couple of runs before winning on his 3rd run back, which is tomorrow in his current campaign.
       He is also beginning to look very well handicapped, and now drops to his lowest hurdle mark for 4 years, and also has had his sights lowered class wise. The yard seem to be still in form, and have had a few horses running up sequences lately, and have also done relatively well on course recently. The course is an unknown factor for Amazing King, however the man on board at least knows how to ride Sedgefield, and it would not be the biggest surprise in the world to see this horse go well in a wide open affair.

Result day 92.

Docofthebay       Pl 8-1 (11's adv) + 1 3/4pts

Profit / Loss                       + 1 3/4pts


Total                              236 3/4pts

The 15.50 at Ludlow sees the return of Just Amazing to the handicap sphere, after winning some moderate hunter chases in the interim. He did contest this years Foxhunters at the festival, and although it was on the first circuit when he unseated was at least still tanking along looking on the fresh side before taking off way to early at the 9th putting his rider on the floor, Imo not entirely all of the horses fault.  He can run well when fresh, but also comes on for the run, and has a nice enough record in the month of April which reads 1-2-(1-6)-1, and being by presenting as you would expect loves a decent surface to perform on. Record on tomorrows described ground of Good/Firm reads 2-1-2-1, with plenty of other wins on good decent ground also on his C.V.

    Tomorrow he comes back considerably in trip from his usual standard of contest, but it is worth noting that he can run well at these shorter trips, chase form up to 23F reads 2-2-1-1-2-1-1, with quite a few of those wins in reasonable novice company, on good ground. I have backed him at 6-1, but I’d be amazed if he were to go off as big as 5’s, and when he is that price or under in the market in chases he seems to be a fairly potent force, with figures of 2-2-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-1, so given the fact Paul Nicholls has been picking up similar low level events like bread and butter post Cheltenham, I’m in no doubt with the experienced  Ryan Mahon in the plate claiming a handy 3 has every right to go well.


   Now onto Caminero, who probably disappointed connections a wee bit Lto at Ffos Las, however the way the race was run would certainly not have played to his strengths, and is possibly better judged on his prior performance when finishing a close up 3rd to Il De Re(124) at Sandown. That day when the pace lifted over the extended 2miles in the straight he did look a little tapped for toe, however when they met the rising ground on the run in was showing a very good attitude, and was closing down the front two very willingly for his jockey on the run to the line. Going back in trip Lto was never going to suit Imo, and now steps a full 5F up in distance on his handicap debut. I’m fairly sure he will also appreciate the better ground, and in both races has looked an assured jumper of hurdles, which you would have assumed as a winning pointer. The yard seems to be among the winners recently, and having had this horse multiply entered up in the coming days  have chose to come handicapping over 21F. Whether 113 is a good mark remains to be seen, but if it is they’ve booked a solid man to exploit it in Tom O’Brien, who has a 35% strike rate for the stable in the last 12 months from 29 rides, and a healthy £14.46 level profit for your £.