Today’s 15.40 at Warwick is where I have decided to centre my attentions, and despite a few horses in the line up having decent claims, I believe Hey Big Spender for the Tizzard’s has got to have an excellent chance of capturing this prize.

      This horse look’s well up to staying these marathon trip’s, and has thus far has had a reasonable season, and looking through all known form look’s a horse to keep on side up to around mid  February, where all of his best previous run’s have came. He did actually bounce back from a couple of poor run’s prior to winning a race on course over 21F in February last year,  those poor run’s being in the Hennessey at Newbury where he had  too much use made of him(set good pace and took them into the straight), and the Victor Chandler at Cheltenham.

       This horse is obviously the class act in the field, and like Lto in the Welsh National is lumbered with top weight. In these type of event’s I’m much more comfortable with having a feather weighted horse on side, however looking at the opposition this horse should be well up to shouldering the burden of 11-12, with plenty in the field looking to be out of sorts, and many off their marks looking simply not up to it. All 3 start’s this season have been relatively encouraging, including his run Lto in the Welsh National. That day it’s fair to say you were almost waiting for his fall, after getting in tight and brushing through plenty he was simply having an off day in the jumping stakes, yet regardless of this he was still tanking along nicely and making steady progress before coming to grief, with Joe Tizzard still having to ask him a serious question.

          I’m fairly certain he will be up to staying today’s trip on course, and the ground should be ideal. The Tizzard’s have had a nice time of it on track over the year’s, and have done fairly recently as well. The yard also continues to have plenty of their yard running well, and if this lad is on a jumping day he should be capable of giving these the weight and a beating at a reasonable price.

outstanding robster!

Rob, you are the BEST OF THE BEST

absolutely outstanding
  many thanks

WD Rob

Rob makes this game look easy.

Great stats, Robster!

I see your aim last year was 100 points profit and you achieved that, but what was the actual total? And did you profit every month?

Thanks.

horsey, Ive cut & pasted my snap shot of the stats off last years thread, they exclude any doubles and multi bets, simply singles to level stakes.

Well the year has finally come to an end, and with it this thread, but I have crunched some figures from the past year regarding my selections to level stakes…


January    43 selections     6 winners   +2pts @ advised prices   - 12pts @ Industry sp
February   24 selections     2 winners   -9pts                               - 13pts
March      29 selections     2 winners   -1/2pt                              - 2pts
April      31 selections     5 winners  + 32 1/2pts                          + 14 1/2pts
May        38 selections     4 winners  + 6pts                                - 7 pts
June       33 selections     2 winners  - 6pts                               - 11pts
July        2 selections     0 winners  - 2pts                                - 2pts
August     31 selections    4 winners  - 1/2pt                                - 8 1/2pts
September  10 selections    0 winners  - 10pts                                - 10pts
October    9 selections    0 winners   - 9pts                                 - 9pts
November   42 selections    8 winners  + 103 1/2pts                           + 77 pts
December   36 selections     4 winners  + 1 1/2pts                            - 6pts

                               Total     + 108 1/2pts                       + 11 pts

                           328 selections with  37 winners

At first glance its hardly great reading, however I personally like playing E.W. and although you use plenty more points betting this way I think the range of prices I personally select it’s a must, and has served me relatively well throughout the year.

       I have finished the year off +167 points, an average of  +13.9 pts profit per month. The 3 main reason’s for starting the thread was firstly to keep track of my bets, and using it to have an accurate gage of how much money I was loosing/making, secondly to ascertain the demographic information to possibly see my strengths and weaknesses in betting area’s and use the information to try and become more efficient in betting terms. The 3rd was to generate interest and debate regarding my selections, and I’d like to thank everyone that has commented and left input on here, and hopefully at times you’ve joined in some of the more successful punts.

Great selection again robster, very well done but thought you worked out p/l to advised prices not sp?

Reading your stats Rob it's plain to see u need to get on at advised prices to show a decent profit, then again i'm now wondering how much profit you would make using BF SP

Thanks for the info, Robster.

So you've made more profit, to advised prices, in the first 2 weeks of this year than the whole of last year?! Have you changed your way of selecting them, or what are your thoughts on that?

Thanks.

Today’s finale at Kempton looks a trappy little affair, with Oratorian and Le King Beau looking to have plenty more to offer than most,  with the former the potential to make his current mark look ridiculous. However they both rightly dominate the betting market, and at around 5-4 / 7-2 take a huge proportion of the book, and personally thought at 12-1 with only the 5 rivals it may be as good a time as any to chance the David Evans trained Redair.

    The filly is the most exposed in the line up, and her profile would not indicate she is ready to step forward regarding ability, however after being allowed to drift to 100-30 on debut last March was nibbled at in the betting to 11-4, suggesting she was going to run a big race on debut over Kempton’s 5F, which proved to be the case, over coming greenness looking like a nice type, with the potential to achieve more than she actually has. She backed that good debut run up by finishing runner up in the Brockelsby, as well as running well in another conditions event at Chester where she was well fancied in the betting in both contest’s. She started life off in nurseries off 78, and did run some nice races within a couple of pounds of that mark without really cutting the mustard. She was then dropped into claiming company on course over 6F last October, and only found 1 too good in an above average contest for that grade, battling right the way to the line going down narrowly, showing again an appreciation for the surface.

     She may well be just the type to make up into a 3 yrold, and breeding would suggest she should be right at home over the trip, if not another furlong. With the yard in rude health at the moment she may well be straight enough to run after her break, and returning back to a poly surface off her current mark of 71 makes her of small interest in this line up.

horsey, think facts more or less sum's it up...long term with a sensible betting strategy is the only way to even consider making any money at this game, and as for my excellent start I can only put that down to good fortune, I've been going through the cards with my usual approach, but this time around lady luck seems to be smiling on me in January..

stewarts my usual strengths going back a good few seasons have been big field class 2 sprint handicaps, but last year was not a good one in those for me. I usually try and stick to handicaps as a rule, whether it's the Grand National or an eight runner Southwell class 6 sprint, I have a similar approach to forming an opinion.

Interesting Rob - we appear to follow similar betting strategies. I only bet in hcaps - and focus on G1 tracks and  Class 1 -3 races. Contrary to your experience - last year was a good one with regards Class2 H'caps ( Both Flat and NH)- but particularly Flat over 5f-7f.

Bet for day 17. 2pts E.W. Catch The Rascal 15.30 Folkestone 14-1 B365 BOG...write up to follow....

Result day 15.

Redair          Un Pl   -1pt

Profit / Loss           -1pt

Total                 219 1/4pts

Well highlighted Robster, you know your Dark ones,(thinking back to Stingray last season), shame you didn't put that one up, would have been a shed load of replys!

Aye stewarts, last seen coming to grief behing Rowdy Rampage, no entries as yet but probably worth being on side this year, could be potentially very nicely handicapped.

In hindsight I should have maybe saved on him at 8's(Malin Head), but allthough he did appear to have been campaigned with a gamble in mind.... I'm a bit wary of the initial firms that were shortening him up, and will keep my thoughts very much to myself regarding bogus gambles.