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for the new year (2)
for the new year (2)
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It's nice to get a double under the belt early on, takes the pressure off a bit as well as bolstering the points up. Another 363 days to go, and I'm sure the roller coaster will have a few dips before the end of the season.... but hopefully it will also have a few more high points as well.
Not sure I'm up to the standard of writing for the tabloids, nice of you to say so Billy but my grammar terrible at times, and use of the written word very limited. Just nice to have a place like the forum to air my opinions, and hopefully make some money whilst doing so. |
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Don't get too ambitious after such a brilliant start Rob. Stick to your system and reasonable points betting.Long long way to go. Consideration could be given to increasing stakes once bank can accommodate such. i.e starting with 1pt(£20 from) a 100point bank( £2000)Therefore bank is 50 times unit stake.Possible to increase bet to 2pts once bank has doubled from initial position - and so on.Not to decrease though.
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Not sure I'm up to the standard of writing for the tabloids, nice of you to say so Billy but my grammar terrible at times, and use of the written word very limited
yew only have two ask Rob, aisle help yew.  |
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Bet for day 3. 2pts E.W. Shawckantango 15.00 Southwell 7-1 PPower BOG.. write up to follow....
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Well after having such a fantastic start to the year I’m hoping Shawkantango has the necessary ability to keep it going, and has shown much more in his last start to be of serious consideration in tomorrows contest.
This horse’s last 2 run’s on course off marks of 69 & 67 have been lacklustre to put it politely, and has looked far from the same form lately as when bursting on to the fibre sand scene approximately 12 months ago. However as stated did put in an eye catching shift at Wolverhampton Lto at huge odds, and finished among some potentially well treated animals, over a course that in the past has usually been quicker than ideal. He has a very good record on the fibre sand surface, albeit off lower marks than he has tomorrow, however he has now fallen to within 1lb of his last C/D win back in April. All of his 4 career wins have came over C/D, and does seem to favour a testing 5F, and I’m of the opinion Southwell’s fibre sand is a fairly stern test over 5F for being such a flat track. Derek Shaw is one of those trainers that once a horse shows form he seems to keep them in it for reasonable periods, a few recent examples are the achievements of Loyalty and Mataajir, whom both have held their form well recently piling on the pounds to their respective marks whilst doing so. Southwell was also good to the Shaw yard in 2011, and by far and away out of all courses this track gave him his best win strike rate of nigh on 14%, with a very nice £1 level stake profit of £39.75. I know horses can sometimes leave egg on your face, and I’m sure Ghostwing and Rylee Mooch are both capable of that after tipping them up recently. Saying that Ghostwing is just simply too unpredictable and no banker to match his latest run tomorrow, and Rylee Mooch broke on terms Lto and gave his running but perhaps needs a little help in the coming weeks from the assessor. The 7-1 only represents fair value from a win perspective, and could well drift a little bigger, but I think his place prospects look to be very solid indeed given the fact he excelled at this time last year, and has started showing much more Lto than anything previously. The final positive is the booking of Graham Gibbons, who has not had that many chances for the yard in the last 12 months, but the small amount of rides he has had have not been without success. |
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Great start to the new year Robster, very well done. Ghostwing is a horse thats been on my radar for a while and thought it put up an excellent run at Sthwll last week and could be primed to strike. Good luck tmr mate.
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Brill Robster
Great start |
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Shawkantango drawn 11 (neg Wol 5f) LTO, so did well to be third.
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Final bet(s) day 3. 2pt Win The Lock Master 13.55 Southwell 5-1 Ladbrokes + 1/2pt E.W. double with Shawkantango @ 6’s
Having concentrated my earlier efforts on the Southwell card by putting up Shawkantango, I’ve decided to stay on the fibre sand for my next selection, that horse being the Michael Appleby trained Lock Master. He is another like Shawkantango that seems to have been going through the motions late autumn/early winter coming back from a break, but a return to his favoured surface Lto was as good a race as he has ran in a while, and is likely to have come on further fitness wise for that outing. This horse is coming back in trip to what looks close to being his optimum, and even though he has ran some good races beyond tomorrow’s mile, it’s no coincidence they’ve been at Southwell, a surface he seems to love. Over all form on course reads 3-2-2-1-2-2-2 , with marks varying from 66-78, and tomorrow he is in off what looks a winnable mark of 73, which was his final winning mark at Wolverhampton the 2nd of his 2 wins in January last year. Luke Morris has been booked who has had reasonable success for the stable from limited attempts, and with the Lock Mater showing much more Lto than previously he could be a much harder nut to crack in tomorrow’s contest, particularly if the pace is generous. His biggest danger in the race appears to be On The Cusp, who will need to pull out a personal best to win(overall profile suggesting he wont/can't), and at around 3 times his price I believe the value in the race to be most definitely lie with The Lock Master at 5-1. |
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Good luck with these - Shawkantango is a big Fav of mine and I did question why he was being raced at Wolverhampton, I now see D Shaw's reasoning and hope you and he and me and others are proven correct
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Result day 2.
Time To Think Won 10-1(adv8's Bog) + 12pts Argentine Won 5-1(adv100-30 Bog) + 5pts Double Won + 35pts Profit / Loss + 52 pts Total 182 pts |
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well done on 2011 robster, and fantsatic tipping so far 2012.
Making a profit long term is so hard, but you seem to make it look straightforward |
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Result day 3.
The Lock Master 2nd -2pts Shakantango Un Pl -4pts Double lost -1pt Profit / Loss -7pts Total 175 pts |
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Bet for day 5. 2pts E.W. Brunette'sonly 15.20 Lingfield 6-1 B365 BOG write up to follow...
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You must have been a tad annoyed when Ghostwing bolted up yesterday Robster, bad luck.
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Ha ha yes stewarts, as stated the egg was most definately on the face... couldn't have him at 7-2, but did it nicely well supported to boot.
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Having tipped up Seamus Mullins Time To Think the other day, I just can’t help having a bet on another mare of his Brunnette’sonly, who is not a million miles profile wise from her stable mate, and does look destined for a decent show in the penultimate race on tomorrow’s Lingfield card.
Like her stable companion the previous season had disappointed in November before running well in January, and then Nto in February was in the process of staying on dourly, only for her inexperienced jockey to step off her after becoming unbalanced at the last, with winning well and truly still in the balance. Her final start over hurdles came at Plumpton also in the month of February, where she just never gave her true running, almost fiddling every hurdle and beaten with well over a circuit to go, head scratching to say the least. She started her current campaign back over Plumpton’s 26F on soft ground, only this time it was her chasing debut, and Imo like her stable companion on her chase bow popped round like an old hand, looking very much at home over the bigger obstacles on her introduction. That run was off the back of a big break, and her beaten distance is hardly a fiar reflection of the performance considering the first 2 home had shown good form in their previous run’s , and plenty of the field having a huge fitness edge. Tomorrow the horse that finished 9 lengths in front of her Ballinhasig meets her on much better terms, however that horse was another with a fitness edge, and had an extremely hard time of thing’s, in contrast to Brunnette’sonly very sympathetic hand riding from Andrew Thornton. Tomorrow just like her stable companion she steps back slightly in trip from debut, and I’m certain the ground will pose no issue. I’m also sure just like her stable companion she will come on hugely for her run, as well as gained confidence from her chasing experience. The cherry on the cake is the handicapper has dropped her 8lbs for the run, and I’d be amazed if she was not capable of filling the frame in some capacity. I also have a strong feeling she may well be punted tomorrow, and most certainly worth an E.W. bet to nothing as it stands. |
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Fantastic tipping.
well done!!! |
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oi oi . . . had a bit more on when croc said he didnt like it!!!!
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excellent!
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vwd
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Well done Robster, great start to the New Year, try and keep it up!
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impressive stuff
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many
many thanks rob |
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I'm glad to see you have hit the ground running this year Rob. Well done keep the stakes sensible.
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Another good day at the coal face Rob
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Different gravy
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Bet for day 7. 2pts E.W. Neptune Collonges 15.10 Sandown 10-1 Ladbrokes BOG write up to follow....
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10e/w max for me with ladbrokes. just had a pop but to no avail. 10 years of losing loads and now 1 year of winning and down to 1 account out of 15.
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Siralex...Shops are holding 10/1...up to a monkey liability iirc
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yep, cheers scooper. just pathetic that i have hills and ladbrokes left to put lumpy bets on and now laddies are taking the mick. cant be done with going to a betting shop every time i want to put a bet on.
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I know mate....Its a ballache...To be honest, I make myself do it in order to give online acc's a bit more longevity
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Rob .........just to say...have a saver on The Knoxs......................old trick keep the Top Weight in........ rated 150 Hdls now with the claimer up...could be a snip.
Who am i to question you  G.L.M8 |
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Tomorrow’s 15.10 at Sandown brings together plenty of horses that appear to be in the prime of their lives, however a good few of the field’s recent form have came in a lower class of contest, with the likely favourite Hold On Julio coming via the hunter chase scene, and even some showing a better class of form over hurdles. There are a few exceptions within the field that have contested better quality races than tomorrow on a regular basis, the few that stick out Imo being Master Of The Hall, Exmoor Ranger and none more so than Neptune Collonges.
The assessor has recently given Neptune Collonges a little respite of late, and Team Nicholls have been quick to seize the initiative by dropping him to his lowest grade since his first few runs as a chaser back in 2006. Obviously this old warrior has had his problems over the year’s, and connections have been very sparing over the season’s regarding how they’ve placed him, and for an 11 yrold he is very lightly raced having only had 33 life time starts under rules. Another thing that seems to stick out, particularly in his last few seasons and build up to his last 3 Gold Cup’s is his ability to gradually improve with his racing, and arguably that appears to be happening in his current one. His last race behind the Minack was in all fairness a fairly sympathetic ride from young Harry Derham, looking to have explicit instruction from his uncle to take care of the old boy, but did run an excellent race considering he may well have still needed it over a distance that’s his bare minimum these days. He also look’s to be the choice of Ruby Walsh who has a reasonable win ratio when on board, and tomorrow is his 3rd run of the season, form reads 1-3-6-3-4-1, one of the 3rds & 4th being in Cheltenham Gold Cup's. The last race he contested is not working out to bad either, with the Sawyer running a gallant race recently, and Bench Warrant placing in the Welsh National. Tomorrow he should be cherry ripe, and this is nowhere near as hard a race as his previous, and looks well capable of giving the weight to this line up over a distance and going he will appreciate, especially now the maestro take's the reigns. |
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Did toy with that scenario mange, but Ruby Walsh doesn't strike me as a fellow that would give up a big race winner that easy.... Good thinking tho
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Like your reasoning and usually follow what you say but I hope this loses tomorrow! I went to back Neptune and accidentally backed Exmoor Ranger! I wonder if Betfair will give me my money back!
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I followed Neptune Collonges last year backed him in the Argento at 10s the night before the race. He went out in front and jumped and travelled like he was floating on water.
It think if anyone is still thinking of backing him wait until the off. If he goes off in front I would say back him. He wins doing this as he gallops and jumps his rivals into the ground. |
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Extra bet(s) day 7. 1pt E.W. Afsoun 15.40 Sandown 16-1 B365 + 1/2pt E.W. double with Neptune Collonges (16&8’s) all BOG….
Having had a good look at this contest yesterday I’m fairly certain, unless I’ve over looked it, there doesn’t appear to be any stand out horses in the well handicap bracket. So have looked at the race in a general form sense, as well as angles in with trainers or jockeys. In that respect you’d be quickly drawn to the very good record David Pipe & Nicky Henderson have on track, and any Evan Williams runners are also worth a second glance at this venue. However from a very small sample over the last couple of years my attentions where drawn to Neil King who hasn’t sent too many runners here in that period, but from his 11 runners has had 4 win’s, 2 places and a crewed nearly £30k in prize money, along with a very nice £19.50 profit to level stakes, so on the strength of that gave Afsoun another vetting. The more I looked at Afsoun’s over all record, the more optimistic I became in regards to his chances in today’s contest. His over all win ratio is not too bad as it stands. But if you pay closer attention to his runs up to today’s trip(never won beyond 17F), it’s even better…. From 24 run’s has well over a 30% win strike rate, and has placed on numerous other occasions, with the majority of those contest’s being of a much higher class than today. Having shaped well at Haydock on his seasonal debut put in another nice run Nto at Leicester over a distance that would have stretched him, but Lto over Newcastle’s 2 miles showed a glimmer of what he’s capable of when in the mood, and did seem to travel very nicely in all of those races. At the age of 10 I’m certain he won’t find improvement, but if Neil King has sweetened this horse up to tease out even more of that old ability, he surely can’t be ruled out of proceeding’s off his mark of 136 given his recent resurgence in form, with trip, track and going looking to be all in his favour. |
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Final bet day 7. 1pt E.W. Waabel 14.15 Lingfield 25-1 B365 BOG…
Having thought my betting was accounted for today I have talked myself into a little E.W. punt on Waabel, who did do me a favour on last years thread. That was also in the month of January, in fact in the said month rattled up a sequence of 1-3-1 over C/D off marks of 72, 74 & 75, after previously not showing an awful lot over longer trips. Those runs were possibly the last half decent form he showed, and has finished nearer last than first in most of his contests to date. However all is not entirely lost considering his last 7 run’s have either been too far or too short, with his last 3 contest’s coming on the fibre sand, a surface he just hasn’t taken to. Rae Guest has handled this horse for those last 7 contest’s, and now has this horse handicapped a full13lbs below his last winning mark, with 6lbs of that respite coming recently, and is it coincidence they are returning to what appears to be his favoured C/D with his lowest mark he’s ever had in light of that, as well as the lowest grade he’s contested on a poly surface. If backing him you’re taking a huge leap of faith, but it’s worth noting the trainer has a canny knack of fathoming out these old rouges, especially the well handicapped ones. Martin Harley rides him for the first time, and has a very sound strike rate for the yard when called upon. The draw could also have been kinder for a prominent racer, but at least can jump, and could surprise at very rewarding odds in what looks a run of the mill affair. |