for the new year (2)

Well after having a relatively successful time of things last year, I’ve decided to try and repeat the feat of doubling my starting bank of 100 pts, and yet again to me that is £20 per point. Again feel free to leave input on any of my selections, whether you’re for or against their chances, and any constructive criticism regarding my betting approach would be welcomed. All my bets will be again posted the night before or early morning, when I believe I see an opportunity at the right price. No doubt there will be times like last year when I need a break, but I will endeavour yet again to see out the full year, and will hopefully be lucky enough to achieve the goal of double bubble come 31st of December.

        Well here we go again....., and after having perused the early priced races over night, and again this morning I’m concentrating my efforts in Cheltenham’s 14.10 & Southwells 14.30. The horse I like the chances of at Cheltenham is Calgary Bay, and I’m torn between 2 in the Southwell contest, them being Benanddonner & Transonic.
       
         I will start with Calgary Bay who I did like the chances of last time in his indented engagement at Doncaster, but none the less did run a nice race over C/D when re routed to the cup race a few weeks ago, and I get the impression he will be far more straighter for today’s contest than in his previous 2 runs. As alluded to in my previous write up this is his  time of year (Dec-Feb) with form figures during the said period being 1-3-2-2-1-2-1-4-2-5 with quite a few of those races being of a better quality than this one, off marks ranging from 142-150.
        The stable have had a relatively low key start to the current campaign, but lately have started to show signs that they are ready to come into some form, notably yesterday when the well punted Glens Boy caused a gubbage convention at Warwick, one of the most unlucky losers you’re ever likely to see. So with ground, trip and Course looking to suit better than most, he does looks set for a bold show under Dominic Elsworth’s under rated handling

    Now onto the 2 I like at Southwell, and for now 9 year olds have held their respective form well over the seasons. I will start with Benanddonner who has actually got a much better strike rate on an artificial surface than turf, and look’s to be able to handle fibre sand having a 1st and 2nd from only 2 attempts. He started last year off at 95 and is now starting this year off a full 10lb lower. He seems nicely boxed up, which will no doubt be handy for his front rank style of racing, and the Murphy stable seem to be ticking along nicely at present, and are among the winners recently, with others running well. They have also booked Luke Morris, and to my eye it looks like his first ride for the yard, so maybe he can make it first time lucky on this horse, that could be nicely handicapped coming back after a well deserved break.

    Transonic is another that could prove to be reasonably handicapped, and he will no doubt strip much fitter for the inadequate 6F he recently took in on course a couple of weeks ago. He also has an excellent record over Southwell’s mile and seems to run well around this time of year. The O’meara yard still look to be going nicely under both codes with their form, and they have also acquired the services of Ryan Powell who continues to catch the eye, and can reduce his mark by a further 5lbs. He is another that likes to front run / race prominent and is also nicely boxed up to do so , and it could turn into the type of contest that if he does get away on the sharp end, he could be very hard to pull in given the way the track has been racing.

2pts E.W. Calgary bay 8-1 generally.. 1pt win on each Benanddonner – Transonic 9’s & 12’s with vc bet + 1/2pt E.W. doubles with Bet fred 8-1 & 11’s/9’s all BOG

Happy and a prosperous new year to everyone, good Luck.