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01 Jan 12 09:43
Date Joined: 14 Apr 06
| Topic/replies: 4,302 | Blogger: therobster27's blog
Well after having a relatively successful time of things last year, I’ve decided to try and repeat the feat of doubling my starting bank of 100 pts, and yet again to me that is £20 per point. Again feel free to leave input on any of my selections, whether you’re for or against their chances, and any constructive criticism regarding my betting approach would be welcomed. All my bets will be again posted the night before or early morning, when I believe I see an opportunity at the right price. No doubt there will be times like last year when I need a break, but I will endeavour yet again to see out the full year, and will hopefully be lucky enough to achieve the goal of double bubble come 31st of December.

        Well here we go again....., and after having perused the early priced races over night, and again this morning I’m concentrating my efforts in Cheltenham’s 14.10 & Southwells 14.30. The horse I like the chances of at Cheltenham is Calgary Bay, and I’m torn between 2 in the Southwell contest, them being Benanddonner & Transonic.
         I will start with Calgary Bay who I did like the chances of last time in his indented engagement at Doncaster, but none the less did run a nice race over C/D when re routed to the cup race a few weeks ago, and I get the impression he will be far more straighter for today’s contest than in his previous 2 runs. As alluded to in my previous write up this is his  time of year (Dec-Feb) with form figures during the said period being 1-3-2-2-1-2-1-4-2-5 with quite a few of those races being of a better quality than this one, off marks ranging from 142-150.
        The stable have had a relatively low key start to the current campaign, but lately have started to show signs that they are ready to come into some form, notably yesterday when the well punted Glens Boy caused a gubbage convention at Warwick, one of the most unlucky losers you’re ever likely to see. So with ground, trip and Course looking to suit better than most, he does looks set for a bold show under Dominic Elsworth’s under rated handling

    Now onto the 2 I like at Southwell, and for now 9 year olds have held their respective form well over the seasons. I will start with Benanddonner who has actually got a much better strike rate on an artificial surface than turf, and look’s to be able to handle fibre sand having a 1st and 2nd from only 2 attempts. He started last year off at 95 and is now starting this year off a full 10lb lower. He seems nicely boxed up, which will no doubt be handy for his front rank style of racing, and the Murphy stable seem to be ticking along nicely at present, and are among the winners recently, with others running well. They have also booked Luke Morris, and to my eye it looks like his first ride for the yard, so maybe he can make it first time lucky on this horse, that could be nicely handicapped coming back after a well deserved break.

    Transonic is another that could prove to be reasonably handicapped, and he will no doubt strip much fitter for the inadequate 6F he recently took in on course a couple of weeks ago. He also has an excellent record over Southwell’s mile and seems to run well around this time of year. The O’meara yard still look to be going nicely under both codes with their form, and they have also acquired the services of Ryan Powell who continues to catch the eye, and can reduce his mark by a further 5lbs. He is another that likes to front run / race prominent and is also nicely boxed up to do so , and it could turn into the type of contest that if he does get away on the sharp end, he could be very hard to pull in given the way the track has been racing.

2pts E.W. Calgary bay 8-1 generally.. 1pt win on each Benanddonner – Transonic 9’s & 12’s with vc bet + 1/2pt E.W. doubles with Bet fred 8-1 & 11’s/9’s all BOG

Happy and a prosperous new year to everyone, good Luck.
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Report therobster27 November 23, 2012 6:39 AM GMT
Result(s) day 325 & 326.

Mission Complete          Un Pl  -4pts

No Such Number            Un Pl  -4pts

Profit / Loss                    -8pts

Total                          296pts.
Report therobster27 November 23, 2012 6:41 AM GMT
Bet for day 329(saturday) 2pts E.W. Barafundle 14.30 Haydock 14-1 PP BOG. write up this evening, along with one other selection for tomorrow.
Report therobster27 November 23, 2012 6:47 AM GMT
Amendment re day 326 result.

No Such Number   -2pts (Where's Suzie should also be -2pts) same difference as far as P/L is concerned.
Report therobster27 November 23, 2012 5:03 PM GMT
Having backed Barafundle this morning with Paddy Power at 14-1 I see a certain Hugh Taylor has also picked up on its chances, and put him up looking to get on at reasonable odds, my guess is he wagered in today like plenty of others before Tom Segal had the chance to wipe a decent fraction of value off its price.  Having looked at the race myself last night I also picked up very quickly on the chances of Barafundle(win lose or draw pre race his 14-1 price seemed big), and also had been monitoring those massive placed runners the stable has had lately. It’s pointless putting up a write up that is fairly similar to the summary Hugh Taylor’s has penned in his atr column, and will instead concentrate my efforts on scouring tomorrows racing for some extra value.

I also indicated this morning I would be backing another, this was actually the other Candlish runner at Ascot Fiendish Flame, who I think according to the atr website was still in the 15.20 at the 48hr stage, but has subsequently been scratched from that contest. I have time on my side tonight to have an in depth look at tomorrow’s cards, and will put one up accordingly if I see an opportunity.
Report therobster27 November 23, 2012 6:36 PM GMT
Bet for day 329. 3pts E.W. Crowning Jewel 12.55 Haydock 10-1 Whill BOG, write up to follow.....
Report therobster27 November 23, 2012 7:31 PM GMT
......Having been through tomorrow's 12.55 at Haydock there seems to be more than a good few improving types, with the vast majority looking no where near the ceiling of their ability. The Nicholls horse along with the Phillip Hobb’s inmate look very intriguing contestants and should both improve for their seasonal bows, and look very likely to be involved from a handicapping perspective. However I simply can’t get away from the Reveley horse, who also fits nicely into the bracket of those named above.

From a sheer handicap perspective Crowning Jewel could be absolutely thrown in tomorrow racing off 125, especially if we can take his last piece of form literally, that was at Newcastle a month ago and the race has worked out extremely well. It was Crowning Jewels seasonal bow, and bumped into a couple that were very well regarded by their respective stables, especially Nicky Richards whom reading between the lines rates Eduardo a very serious horse. He was beaten that day in a ding dong battle to the line by a race fit Ifbutwhynot, and lost no cast in defeat with the exploits of that particular animal last Saturday, readily winning with plenty in hand a decent handicap off 117 at Cheltenham. Eduard himself returned to Newcastle 3 weeks later and in 3rd gear turned a big field novice event into a procession, in all respects a mere excercise gallop.

Crowning Jewel was of course trying to concede a stone to each of those rivals on his seasonal debut, and trying to do so over a distance that would have been in truth short of his optimum. Another positive to come out of that race at Newcastle was the two in front had pulled sufficiently clear enough so that Crowning Jewel was effectively only playing for third place at best, and James Reveley was able to be very considerate in the closing stages with him, in the process still easily accounting for Time Out in 4th who had been fairly progressive last season over the bigger obstacles. Stepping back up in trip with some dig in the ground should be very much in his favour, and does have a profile that leads you to believe there is plenty more to come this year, and unless I’ve made a mistake with my calculations Crowning Jewel in my mind looks very much the best handicapped in the race.
Report therobster27 November 23, 2012 8:19 PM GMT
Bet day 329. 1pt E.W. Double Barafundle and Crowning Jewel with B365 9's & 8's respectively BOG.
Report Lampus November 23, 2012 8:38 PM GMT
All  the  best  comrade
Report therobster27 November 24, 2012 8:08 AM GMT
Extra bet day 329 1pt E.W. A Little Swifter 13.40 Ascot 25-1 Betfred BOG, write up to follow.....
Report therobster27 November 24, 2012 8:54 AM GMT
.......Having been through plenty of today’s cards the only other that interests me partakes in Ascots 13.40 that horse being Neil King trained mare A Little Swifter.

At her current price of 25-1 I think she may represent a little value in a wide open affair, and from a handicapping perspective has at least been given some respite from the assessor, which in the context of this line up makes her reasonably interesting running off her current mark 118. Her last few runs in handicap company have all been with a degree of promise, the first 2 of which were class 1 listed events, with her recent reappearance being in today’s grade. It is the middle run of those trio of handicaps that impressed me the most, a contest over today’s 22F at Cheltenham in very soft ground. That day Alex Merriam had her nicely settled anchored off the pace for the majority of the journey, and was travelling with menace on the approach to 2 out, and having joined in on possibly the slowest part of the track at the head of affairs could not quite see things out up the hill, quickly loosing 3places in the last 100yds or so.

Lto on her seasonal bow was asked to take a handy position for the 19F contest at Stratford, and although she looked to be easily outpaced as the leaders quickened, she did actually go past a few in the closing stages that had readily passed her on the turn for home, shaping like extra yardage would very much have suited. Today she does get the step up in distance she looked to need, and Imo she does look suited to this trip with a patient ride, and looks to handle very soft ground which will also add to her cause. Ascot is a bit of an unknown track wise, but it is worth noting that from the 9 hurdle races she has contested, going left handed she has unplaced form figures of 4-3-7-5-6, whilst going right handed can boast form of  3-1-3-1, placed or winning in 100% of her contest’s(albeit lesser events than her left handed races). The yard are in the winners during November as well as plenty running well, and with the right sort of ride could be in the thick of things at the business end with a share of luck in running.
Report Glengarry Glen Ross November 24, 2012 9:01 AM GMT
Hi robster

Keep up the good work
I would normally say "Good Luck", but your informed knowledge and results prove
there is more to your selection process than just "Luck"

All the best

No road is too long for him who advances slowly and does not hurry,
and no attainment is beyond his reach who equips himself with patience to achieve it.

Jean de La Bruyere
Report therobster27 November 24, 2012 9:21 AM GMT
Morning GGR, Do like that quote, even though that road at times does seem rather steep!!!

Hope your finding a few, not seen any of your doubling threads for a little while, any on the horizon??

GL today.
Report therobster27 November 24, 2012 3:52 PM GMT
Bet for day 330. 1pt E.W. In Compliance 14.25 Navan 33-1 PP BOG, write up to follow.....
Report therobster27 November 24, 2012 4:17 PM GMT
.......Well with nothing going on domestically tomorrow I’ve decided to head to the emerald isle for a flutter, and thought In Compliance may run well in the Troytown at Navan.

His current available price of 33-1 look’s a shade on the big side, having been a genuine top class Grade 1 performer in his pomp. I’ve no doubt his best day’s are behind him, and it remains to be seen if he is capable of being competitive off a mark of 130 given his advancing years. I’m prepared to take a chance he has got one last hurrah in him this season, and first time out may be as good a time as any to catch him. During his long and distinguished career he has form figures of  7-1-1-1-3-4-1-4-PU on his reappearance from an absence, and is very capable of acting in heavy ground having ran in it 8 times has won 4 and finished  2nd from those starts. Oddly enough he has yet to win over 3miles, but seems to stay extremely well, this advertised when a fairly close 5th on his last start in the Grand National. The yard have plenty winning form in November, with numerous others running well, and In Compliance could be capable of causing a surprise if tuned up for his seasonal bow.
Report GandalfTheGrey November 24, 2012 11:25 PM GMT
Report NMR November 25, 2012 12:27 AM GMT
Just found this thread, excellent work sir. Do your selections get cut by bookies shortly after you post them?
Report therobster27 November 25, 2012 9:30 AM GMT
Result day 329.

Crowning Jewel         Un Pl       -6pts
Barafundle      Pl 15-2(14's adv)  +5pts
Double                 Lost        -2pts

A Little Swifter       Un Pl       -2pts

Profit / Loss                      -5pts

Total                             291 pts
Report therobster27 November 25, 2012 9:40 AM GMT
NMR, I'm fairly sure on plenty of occasions they are cut, but probably down to other folk thinking on the same lines as me. I'd be fairly certain that without trawling back through this and my previous year's thread that I beat the industry sp more often than not, maybe as high as 75% of the time. But I usually try and use the BOG firms as a rule, having the best of both worlds so to speak.
Report therobster27 November 28, 2012 7:15 PM GMT
Bet for day 334. 2pts E.W. Regal Approach 13.30 Newbury 12-1 Willhill BOG, write up to follow...
Report therobster27 November 28, 2012 8:04 PM GMT
Tomorrow’s 13.30 at Newbury looks a fairly competitive affair, with plenty bringing winning form to the table, along with a few that have shaped nicely on their penultimate starts to make them of interest in this race. My attentions have been drawn to neither of the above, but to a one returning from a fair absence, that horse being Regal Approach.

He has been off the track best part of 20 months, and prior to his absence was taking in some novice chase events, with initially that looking to go well before running poor races in his last 2 completed starts. He did take in a hurdle contest whilst trialling the bigger obstacles, and when last seen in the hurdling sphere finished an 11 length 6th of 17 behind Money Order in a class 3 at Sandown over 2 ½ mile. That was off his then mark of 115, and tomorrow can compete a full 13lb lower if you factored Edward Cookson’s allowance into the equation, making him fairly attractively handicapped.

Another thing this horse appears to be able to do is run well fresh, and with breaks of 75day+ in his racing has form figures of  4-2-3-3-4-3-2, being unplaced on only one of those occasions (1st time on a race course), and seems to have a fair record around this time of year. He appears to handle cut, and although there is only 12 runners tomorrow he seems to excel in the hustle and bustle of biggish fields. Ironically his only win to date did come on course in a novice chase, and did run well on one other occasion when finishing a close up 3rd in a 25F hurdle race from only 3 visits to the venue.

If the betting is to believed Regal Approach appears to be Kim Baileys second string, but it’s worth noting that from Timmy Murphy has just over a 7% strike rate from 27 rides, and is - £18.12 to a £ level stake for those mounts, with Edward Cookson having a healthy 17% strike rate and a lucrative profit of %52.83 from his 65 rides for the yard. Kim Bailey looks to have hit a purple patch as far as form goes, and I can see Regal Approach running well tomorrow with the yard more than capable of getting one back after a break.
Report Lampus November 28, 2012 8:39 PM GMT
Thank you and All the best
Report Glengarry Glen Ross November 29, 2012 1:51 PM GMT
Top tipping, as always.

All the best
Report therobster27 November 29, 2012 5:34 PM GMT
Bet for day 335. 2pts E.W.Bakbenscher 14.40 Newbury 11-1 PP BOG, write up to follow later.....
Report therobster27 November 29, 2012 6:45 PM GMT
Having reviewed this race previously was caught out by not acting on the 14-1 quoted by Paddy Power whilst reviewing other races for tomorrow, however although I did avail myself to the 12-1 on offer with B365 shortly after on their 4-1+ offer, it was gone by the time I could get it onto my thread at the said price, but very willing to still put it up at 11-1 which was still on offer with PP, thinking it still to be fair. Anyway onto the reason why I believe at his double figured price that Bakbenscher can at least have his say tomorrow.

Tomorrow although the ground is described as soft, G/soft in places it will be extremely testing without a doubt, with the ability to handle and compete in such underfoot conditions  being a massive positive. Although within tomorrows field plenty can act and run well on such ground they also have had some poor runs, with Bakbenscher having had just 5 runs with the ground described as soft or worse has produced a fairly consistent form line of 1-1-5-1-1. He had been off track just over 20 months when taking in his reappearance in a listed event over 20f at Chepstow  just over a month ago, a race I’m convinced will produce a few nice form lines (none to note of yet though). That day Robert Thornton rode a very patient race, settled nicely at the rear of a fairly well grouped field, and it was only on the turn into the straight did he ask his mount to take closer order. He traveled very nicely into the race up the home straight, picking up places nicely as others had cried enough, with Bakbenscher still swinging away with purpose. However half a mile out he clattered the 4th last, and that was not the only hurdle he had made sill mistakes at, but soon after came under a ride from Thornton and too his credit came back onto the bit before getting a little outpaced in between the run from 3 to 2 out. Without being given an extraordinarily hard race he stayed on nicely to be a never nearer 5th, in doing so matched his other previous attempt in the race prior to a novice chase campaign.

He can contest tomorrow’s race of a mark of 132, which is 12lb lower than his assessed chasing mark, and I’m certain he would have tightened right up for his reappearance having been given best part of 5weeks to recover. Although he is a 9yrold he’s far from exposed, with tomorrow only being his 18th lifetime start, and has won 7 of his 17 starts to date. Tomorrow’s class 3 contest is his easiest assignment in a while, and the step up in trip is sure to be a massive positive, and looks very capable of keeping his 100% Newbury record in tact.
Report madhatters November 29, 2012 7:02 PM GMT
Ticking over nicely Rob Grin
Report BornToWin November 29, 2012 9:11 PM GMT
Indeed ticking over nicely... nearly 2 years (published) of steady profits. I think you said you go £20 a point rob?.... you should be charging more to mark the enemy's cards! Wink
Report therobster27 November 30, 2012 5:43 AM GMT
Result(s) day 330 & 335.

In Compliance          Un Pl        -2pts

Regal Approach Pl 16-1(12'sadv BOG) +6pts

Profit / Loss                       +4pts

Total                              295pts
Report therobster27 December 1, 2012 5:36 AM GMT
Bet day 336. 1pt E.W. Atherstone Hill 13.35 Towcester 10-1 BF & PP BOG……

…….Today at Towcester Robin Dickin gives his 10yrold gelding a pop around hurdles in public for the first time in almost 4 years, and in doing so has been at least dropped into a class he should be very capable of competing in.

The ground at Towcester today is described as soft and without a doubt your going to need stamina, and plenty of it to get home over 3 miles in the conditions. Atherstone Hill has this in abundance within his grade, with the soft ground looking to hold no worries either. Having the ability to act at this fairly unique course is a must, with Atherstone Hill having a fair record on over hurdles / chases, with form figures of 4-PU-1-2-1.  He looks a horse also to catch fresh, and his last 4 runs coming back from an absence of 125+ days reads 4-2-1-2. The lad up today Charlie Poste has only ridden the horse in public twice, producing a 1st & 2nd , and as remarked upon above drops to a class 5 event, and form for his jumps races in this class of contest reads 2-1-1-1.

The yard are in reasonable shape, and Robin Dickin looks to have found a reasonable starting point for his inmate, whom will no doubt be targeted at some staying chases later in his campaign.
Report Lampus December 1, 2012 7:13 AM GMT
Thank you
Report therobster27 December 1, 2012 8:04 AM GMT
Extra bet(s) day 336 1pt E.W. Snapping Turtle 13.45 Newcastle 8-1 generally use BOG, 1pt E.W. On Trend 15.40 Newbury 14-1 Whill BOG + 1/2pt E.W. treble with B365 with Atherton Hill, 8’s 12’s & 8’s. All BOG……

………My second selection today also runs in a fairly unremarkable affair at Newcastle, that horse being the Donald Whillans trained gelding Snapping Turtle.

The yard looks to have taken their time with this horse, and have brought him on steadily in his career to date with no doubt a Chasing career in mind. He is also making his handicap debut today, and in doing so is making it off a very interesting mark given the way he's been campaigned thus far.

In terms of miles on the clock he is by far the least exposed of the line up, and in truth has been fairly well looked after in his 5 lifetime starts to date. He did get his chasing career up and running Lto on his seasonal bow in a class 3 novice at Carlisle, and jumped very well for his first time in public,  to my eye not making too many mistakes. The couple that finished in front of him that day look to be fair prospect’s, and having been outpaced and dropping to the back of the small field turning in, Snapping Turtle stayed on nicely to take 3rd belying his odds of 50-1. He now steps up a full 4 furlongs from that debut, which Imo should definitely suit, and is again being kept to a stiff track which he’s been exclusively campaigned over.

Being by Turtle Island today’s heavy ground should be right up his street, and it would not be the biggest surprise to see a deluge of money for him, given the stable like to set one up now and again, today having very much that whiff.

My final selection today goes in the last event at Newbury, which looks a very nice handicap to conclude the card, and not the easiest to weigh up by any means as a far as a getting out stakes goes. However having been drawn to a one yesterday tea time I talked myself out of a bet then, very much on account of the distance. However having looked at the animal in questions breeding I’m prepared to have a small amount on E.W., but in doing so I’m still taking plenty very much on trust.

The horse in question is the Nick Gifford’s trained gelding On Trend, who looks well suited to further than today’s 17F event, but think he could be very capable of competing over this trip if Andrew Thornton can make it a decent enough test gallop wise. He is another who is very much in the highly unexposed bracket, having won a maiden, chase, and a P to P already from only 7 career starts. He has won all of his contests when fresh, with 2 of those being on his seasonal bow under rules, both in the month of November. The soft ground should also be in his favour having already won and ran well in this going previously, and his sire Jammaal also looking to need testing ground to show his best over 8/10F on the level.

Last time we saw On Trend was just short of a year ago at Taunton in a trappy little novice handicap won by Oldrick, with another useful animal Mr Hudson just preceding him in that particular race. On Trend should have plenty more to come, it remains to be seen if it’s going to come today, but if Andrew Thornton makes plenty use of him early his stamina will definitely come into play given the conditions, and off his current mark could be involved in some capacity.
Report therobster27 December 1, 2012 8:08 AM GMT
^^^^ maiden = hurdle
Report therobster27 December 1, 2012 8:21 AM GMT
Result day 335.

Bakbenscher            Un Pl  -4pts

Profit / Loss                 -4pts

Total                         291
Report therobster27 December 2, 2012 8:09 AM GMT
Bet day 337. 2pts win Plum Pudding 7-1 PP & WH BOG, write up to follow...
Report therobster27 December 2, 2012 8:48 AM GMT
Having reviewed the Leicester card it look’s a fairly low key show, with just some very mundane races to decipher. However saying that there are one or two others that when the books price up I may have go at, but do think at 7-1 Plum Pudding still looks reasonably priced for win purposes and have backed him accordingly.

He is still 5lbs above his last 2 winning marks of 107 (one very fortuitous), but seems to have a liking for 3 miles at Leicester, having won twice and placed form just those 3 attempts. He actually stays very well, giving the impression in some of his races he may be suited to races with an extreme test of 28F+. He made his seasonal reappearance at Kempton approximately a month ago, and having been held up handy in the early stages on the first circuit the complexion of the race changed quickly heading out for a the second. Plum Pudding seemed to loose several places as the runners started to thin out with the pace lifting, and  by the time Loch Ba was on the approached to the straight Plum Pudding was a very remote 5th, best part of 40 lengths adrift of the leader looking in a hopeless position. He did plug on gamely to his credit to finish 2nd, and take that facile winner out of the question he would himself have won comfortably. Loch Ba had every right to win as he did that day off 108 looking to be hiding in the region of 20lb from the assessor, and was unlucky not to have won Nto in a class 3 at Ascot off  his revised mark of 122(coming back at the winner as the line came up).

Plum Pudding also handles testing ground which it will definitely be providing the course passes it’s planned 10.30 inspection, and with question marks around plenty of the runners regarding their current marks as well as wellbeing, Plum Pudding ticks more boxes than anything in the field, and will undoubtedly be staying on better than most for David England, who seems to have struck up a good understanding of this old boy .
Report therobster27 December 2, 2012 11:44 AM GMT
Final bet day 337. 1pt E.W Colebrooke 15.30 Leicester 28-1 B365(4-1+) + 1/2pt E.W. double with PPudding @ 5-1 with same firm, write up to follow.....
Report therobster27 December 2, 2012 12:19 PM GMT
......In today’s conclusion to the Leicester card the David Pipe animal has been hugely popular, plenty of good judges seem to be putting him up… as well as skinto Laugh  (write up to follow Confused cheeky but like it ), and at his prohibited odds now of 2-1 seems like the value has well and truly gone. I was not planning on having a bet due to the fact an E.W. selection could technically be only running for 2 places if the dogs that are barking are right, however I have scrummed and do think Colebrooke could have a decent chance considering the conditions of the race.

It’s worth noting that Colebrooke has been running in races a gulf apart from the one he contests today, with the majority of the opposition nowhere near as classy or having experienced those type of races. His seasonal debut was over 22F at Wetherby in a 0-140 race, and after being ridden fairly patiently made headway to get into a challenging position before turning in, only to look in desperate need of the outing, not given a hard time of things due to this fact. In his latest start over the same course when taking in a 0-135 event he was also dropped in trip, and after being ridden more prominently was still in with a shout just before turning in, again just did not see things out in the closing stages, but still finished a credible 8th when plenty others had given up the ghost. The winner has won since under his penalty, and plenty others in that contest have came out and ran solidly in their next races.

Colebrooke now has his sights set as low as he’s had in a very long time, and with recent help from the assessor can slot nicely into this 0-120 affair. With the drop in class comes a drop to a much more suitable trip (Imo), with all of his winning coming only up to 19F and plenty of decent spins over 17F.  I’m sure this horse retains his ability, but has been running recently over trip’s that have stretched his stamina to the max. He also seems to appreciate soft conditions, and with usual partner Jamie Moore up he could be massive value considering the opposition he now faces.
Report therobster27 December 2, 2012 12:21 PM GMT
Scrummed LOL...succumbed , my apologies
Report therobster27 December 3, 2012 7:48 AM GMT
Result days 336 & 337.

Snapping Turtle          Un Pl -2pts
Atherton Hill            Un Pl -2pts
On Trend                 Un Pl -2pt
Treble                   Lost  -1pt

Plum Pudding              N/R
Colbrooke                 N/R

Profit / Loss                  -7pts

Total                         284pts
Report therobster27 December 3, 2012 7:55 AM GMT
Bet day 338. 1pt E.W. Good Authority 17.20 Kempton 12-1 B365 4-1+offer.....

......In today’s penultimate race at Kempton I do think Good Authority is definitely worth a second glance, and looks more than capable of performing well off his current mark of 84.

He has been on the go a fairly long time, but unlike some of these sprinting types his 9 run’s since he embarked on his seasonal campaign back in May is not exactly overkill. He has also looked like in his last couple of starts on a poly surface he’s running himself back into a little form, and both of those runs are better than the bare result would suggest. His latest run was over Lingfields 7F, and it was apparent that shortly after they jumped more than a few jockeys seemed to be having a look to see who was going to make it, inevitably the pace looked fairly pedestrian in the opening exchanges because of this fact. Adam Kirby and School Master were the beneficiaries of a tactical ride, taking advantage of his plum draw in 1 Kirby settled his horse nicely on the sharp end, setting what looked like very modest fractions for the early part of the contest, then effectively turning it into a 3F dash on the approach to the straight with more than a few (including the selection) running on when the bird had flown.

His penultimate start was over C/D at the back end of October, and again the pace looked terrible, and from his poor draw for almost the entire contest gave the wide outside up to no one. Again it appeared to turn in to a dash from the turn in with plenty catching the eye running inside the last, but Imo he was coming home as well as anything and can consider himself very unlucky not to have won taking into consideration his scenic route. Today he jumps from a much kinder stall to get cover, and Roy The Boy is likely to make it at a decent pace, with plenty about who will be keeping him honest at the head of affairs ensuring a true run race. Good Authority has a reasonable record over 7F, and has some decent performance in the book at Kempton, with his trainer also having a good time of things at this venue in the last 12 months or so.  I’m fairly sure Delft had the run of the race when she and Good Authority met Lto in that crawl at Lingfield, with the selection being 2 lb better off for a closing 2 lengths, and Imo there will not be much in it today, at least not as the gulf in the betting would suggest.
Report therobster27 December 7, 2012 6:46 PM GMT
bet for day 343 2pts win Golan Way 15.40 Sandown 8-1 WHill BOG, write up to follow....
Report therobster27 December 7, 2012 8:09 PM GMT
......Tomorrow’s 15.40 at Sandown is among some of the other races I’ve been analyzing throughout the early part of the evening, and having missed the 9-1 with B365 I’ve managed to secure some 8-1 with a BOG concern, with William Hill being that particular firm. I do think Golan Way at that price is definitely worth a punt, and when Any Currency takes up his engagement at Aintree the rule 4 (proving the bookies don’t pull a fast 1) will reduce his price to around a 13-2 shot (20p in the pound), my thinking being the firms will have this horse a 7-2 shot at best when the withdrawal is made. We all know beating the price is irrelevant if the horse gets beat, but pre race his odds do look on the big side, and here’s why he I believe he can win.

He may be only pint sized as far as the jumping sphere goes, but what he lacks in stature his athleticism more than make up for his diminutive appearance, and is already 3 from 6 within this discipline to date, jumping very well in the main. However saying that his last 3 appearances cast a most unfortunate form line of R,1,P. The R was when he refused to race in an ultra competitive listed event, and the P being when out of his depth in last season’s solid renewal of the King George. When he does consent to race he has a very good record when fresh, particularly in the N.H. sphere with a form line of 1-1-2-1-3-PU with an absence of 150 days+. He also seems inconvenienced by any type of going, but looks to handle a soft surface with some very good displays on this ground during his career over jumps.

His last win was at Sandown during this 2 day meeting last season when winning a listed contest over 25F, and although he only beat a small select field that day did look like he could get further. Although he has won left handed I think he is well suited going the other way around, and his last 4 wins would corroborate this statement (all 3 chases and a decent hurdle). He also run’s off a few lbs lower rating than when last seen in the King George, and has the able assistance of usual pilot Marc Goldstein in tomorrows contest, and with the stable in form has every chance of showing he is up to staying tomorrows’ trip providing he gets off without incident.
Report therobster27 December 8, 2012 9:44 AM GMT
Final bet day 343. 2pts E.W. Swampfire 14.30 Sandown 10-1 generally (use a B.O.G. firm), write up to follow....
Report Lampus December 8, 2012 9:48 AM GMT
Thank  you
Report therobster27 December 8, 2012 10:16 AM GMT
The 14.30 at Sandown looks, as the betting would suggest, to revolve around the vastly improving Ifandbutwhynot, and when winning that decent event at Cheltenham Lto won fairly cozily. Canadian Diamond was also in that race, and he had yet to be asked for his effort when traveling well near the head of affairs prior to turning in before a soft unseating. Swampfire was trying to concede 6 & 7lbs respectively to those vastly improved horses that day, and although he only plugged on at the one pace there plenty of reason’s to believe he will have his revenge today, getting weight from the entire field.

For a start that was only Swampfire second run in the care of Tim Vaughan, having acquired this horse from the Irish scene was immediately rewarded with a win, with his inmate knuckling down well to beat another fair type in a novice event. He also looks like he will be suited to today’s testing ground, with Sandown’s hill also likely to suit his finishing style. He was just shy of a 100 rated beast on the level, and has Imo plenty of improvement left to make in this sphere still being only a 4yrold(albeit for another few weeks). Tim Vaughan has put on his apprentice for today’s race, with Jason Kiely taking off a full 10lbs, and he may not be the most polished as far as style goes, but can give a horse a strong ride which will count for plenty in this afternoons ground. With the lad’s claim he now meets Ifandbutwhynot a full 22lbs better off for 9 lengths, and is also much better off with Canadian Diamond, which is harder to assess on account of him tipping up.

With ground, trip and Imo track looking the ticket today I’m confident he will get competitive off this sort of mark, and he himself should make plenty of natural improvement and looks the one to give likely favourite Ifandbutwhynot most to do, and at more than 3 times the price(now) it’s a no brainer regarding where the value lies.
Report therobster27 December 12, 2012 6:49 PM GMT
Bet for day 348. 1pt E.W. Seek The Fair Land 19.00 Kempton 25-1 generally bog, write up to follow....
Report therobster27 December 12, 2012 7:58 PM GMT
Tomorrow evenings penultimate race at Kempton looks a decently contested 7F event, with more than a few looking to hold strong claims. Imo Seek The Fair Land could go well, and at his fairly generous price of 25-1 I’m prepared to have a little wager all things considered.

After returning from a fairly lengthy break from his racing he has looked in desperate need of both outings, making no impact whatsoever on his return over Kempton’s 6F at the start of November, with Graham Lee giving this horse an ultra sympathetic ride, not looking likely to get involved at any stage from his poor draw. Nto over Lingfield’s 6F also showing a similar level, looking to come under a hand ride 3 out, with not a great response prior to swinging into the straight giving the wide outside up to no one.

I’m fairly certain tomorrow he will be a lot closer to being match fit and stepping up to 7F will be a huge positive, along with being nicely boxed up in stall 3. Despite him not being involved Lto the race has worked out fairly well, with 3 Nto winners in strong contests, along with another winning within its second run. He does have a little to find with Thunderball on that running, but is 1lb better off for a couple of lengths or so, but although Thunderball has a good record over C/D they’ve been in slightly inferior contest’s (1 a claimer) all off slightly lower marks and claimer(7) ridden to boot, and is well under half of the price of the selection.

Jim Boyle has been more out of form than in over the past year, but the yard have certainly came good heading into the winter season, and do look to have turned a corner form wise, with there last 8 runners within a week or so producing a form line of 4-1-2-2-4-1-2-1, with those being placed not being beaten by far. Seek The Fair Land now drops a couple of lbs below his last poly surface success, and running off 87 should at least enable him to be competitive, with his last 7 appearances running within 2lb either way of tomorrows mark ( 85 - 89) on a poly surface yields all placed form of  3-3-2-2-2-1-1.
Report therobster27 December 13, 2012 6:43 AM GMT
result(s) day 338 & 343.

Good Authority          Un Pl   -2pts

Golan Way                Lost   -2pts
Swampfire                Un Pl  -4pts

Profit / Loss                   -8pts

Total                           276 pts
Report Lampus December 13, 2012 6:58 AM GMT
Thank you
Report Glengarry Glen Ross December 13, 2012 6:56 PM GMT
gl rob

Report therobster27 December 14, 2012 7:51 AM GMT
Bet day 349. 1pt Win At Fishers Cross 15.05 Cheltenham 9-2 generally (use BOG firm).....

.....Having gone through today’s 15.05 at Cheltenham I’m of the opinion there may well be a star of the future within the race, with At Fishers Cross being the horse in question. Judging by the way he addresses his hurdles, and the sheer physical presence of this animals points to a massive future in staying chases, but still looks a very useful tool to keep onside in the hurdling ranks presently.

Right from day one this horse has shown an excellent attitude to his racing, and when making a winning start to his career in that Cork Bumper last November made a useful yard stick in Lamb or Cod look very pedestrian like. During his next start he embarked on his career under the handling of Rebecca Curtis, and under his penalty followed up in a bumper at Ffos Lass, in doing so was conceding 12lbs to the very useful Eleven Fifty Nine pulling miles clear of the remainder, with that horse placing and winning a listed event in her next 2 appearances.

At Fishers Cross looks extremely progressive, and after probably disappointing in his first couple of hurdle races at the back of last season has looked a different gravy with a summer on his back, winning his opening maiden at Ffos Las looking like he was doing no more than a piece of work at home. His next and latest hurdle race was at Newbury which he also won very convincingly (bar the odd jumping error), and Imo looked to win that particular contest with any amount in hand, beating a few fairly unexposed types in doing so. He now steps up to a trip he should relish, and will almost certainly be suited to a demanding course that Cheltenham will provide.

His price of 9-2 or so now is still reasonable if factoring the untapped potential into the equation, but still Imo seems reasonable on his achievements to date.  I for one could not get him beaten after going through the race, but it would be folly to think that in a 16 runner class 2 at Cheltenham he’s not going to receive a race off anything, so have kept the stakes to a minimum as a precautionary measure.
Report never give up December 14, 2012 3:15 PM GMT
well done rob
Report mange December 14, 2012 3:16 PM GMT
good call!
Report GLASGOWCALLING December 14, 2012 3:17 PM GMT
W/D, i enjoy your write or lose.    Happy
Report knot in wood December 14, 2012 3:18 PM GMT
yes well done,still knocking them in rob.
Report Deltâ December 14, 2012 3:18 PM GMT
Report TheNorfolkMafia December 14, 2012 3:27 PM GMT

Report Glengarry Glen Ross December 14, 2012 3:49 PM GMT
WD rob
Report Valuebetting December 14, 2012 4:25 PM GMT
nice won rob
Report madhatters December 14, 2012 10:28 PM GMT
WD Robs Grin
Report therobster27 December 15, 2012 8:18 AM GMT
Bet(s) for day 350. 1pt E.W. Notus De La Tour 14.30 Cheltenham & 1pt E.W. Quentin Collonges 15.20 Doncaster + 1/2 pt E.W. Double, 8-1 & 12-1 respectively with BFred BOG, write up to follow....
Report therobster27 December 15, 2012 9:11 AM GMT
Having looked for a bit of value for today my attentions were automatically turned to both of the big field handicaps at Cheltenham and Doncaster, and if all 16 stand their ground in each heat there does look fair E.W. value to be had with both Notus De La Tour and Quentin Collonges in their respective contests.

I will start with Notus De La Tour who has been given an assignment not too dissimilar to the one he took in at last seasons festival, with today’s race being a much easier ask than the couple of grade 1’s he took in prior to that Cheltenham run. Having not gotten further than the 3rd in his last start(looked to stumble when landing), I will role back to his penultimate run, which Imo looks  the best piece of form on his c.v., and arguably the contest. However that excellent 3rd behind Flemenstar was best part of a year ago, but that particular race has thrown up some excellent form for completed starts, with Flemenstar producing the best form line out of that race by the proverbial mile. Today is only Notus De La Tour’s 6th start in this sphere, and could be massively well in off his current mark of 134.  Trip, track and ground all look in his favour, and also seems to run well fresh, and shouldn’t be lacking fitness wise hailing from this set up. David Pipe seems to have his yard in decent order presently, and Imo Notus De La Tour has a massive chance on today’s terms to keep the yards form on an upward curve.

Having previewed Quentin Collonges recently for his missed engagement in the Southern National in November, he’s obviously been in the note book waiting to re-surface. Today’s contest is obviously a lot harder than that race, but does look suited to Doncaster as a venue (2/2), and the race should be run to play to his stamina strengths. If the problem of his breathing has been rectified he is another that could still be ahead of his mark, and looks well suited to running fresh on a half decent surface which he’ll get today.
Report therobster27 December 15, 2012 9:37 AM GMT
Result day 348 & 349.

Seek The Fair Land      Un PL                  -2pts

At Fishers Cross       Won 11-4(9-2adv - R4)   +3 3/4pts

Profit / Loss                                  +1 3/4pts

Total                                          277 3/4pts
Report therobster27 December 21, 2012 8:14 AM GMT
Bet day 356. 1pt E.W. Double Any Given Day 15.20 Lingfield & Lilac Lace 17.20 Wolverhampton....

.......For me today’s racing at Ascot looks a watching brief, with all but one race being either a novice event, maiden or a NH flat race. Saying that I do like the E.W. chances of Pause And Clause in the previously mentioned “one” race, thought the break will have done him good, and the yard look to be in rude health. I have however decided to play at the A.W. venues of Lingfield & Wolverhampton, with today’s value coming in the form of an E.W. double.

The 2 horses in question are Any Given Dream in Lingfields 15.20, and Lilac Lace in Wolverhampton’s 17.20.

Any Given Dream had plenty of running left in him when staying on behind some in-form rivals 9 days ago over C/D, that run being off the back of a 3 month absence. I’m certain the smaller field and potential lack of a gallop is going to be less of a hindrance to him than his rivals, and he’s my idea of the winner. As far as the bet goes if 2 could finish in front of him out of today’s bunch at the weights it would be disappointing.

Lilac Lace’s chance hinges on her ability to take to a poly surface, and if she does handle it she is also nicely weighted/handicapped to be involved. She like a couple of others that run fall into the unexposed/Lto winner’s bracket. I know any weight advantage is more prevalent to 2yrolds in the earlier part of their careers/ season, but for one being so unexposed she looks well treated receiving hefty chunks of weight from her nearest market rivals as it presently stands. Those market rivals could also potentially have chinks in their respective armory, with Hipster having to overcome an absence, potentially needing the race, and is Staffhoss going to receive the type of ride from Joe Fanning that SDS administered Lto (stern encouragement with the whip throughout the last 2 furlongs looking to need further), I for one would question that. Again I’d be amazed if this filly wasn’t capable of hitting the frame, especially as she can travel and pick up well off a decent pace, with the race looking set to unfold in her favour.

during time of writing AGD has contracted to 5-2 with the said firm, but 11-4 still available generally
Report therobster27 December 21, 2012 8:15 AM GMT
PS, 3-1 and 4-1 with PP respectively ^^^^^ AGD now 5-2 from 3's, sorry for any confusion.
Report madhatters December 21, 2012 8:51 PM GMT
WD Rob Grin
You been chatting to Violet Laugh
Report therobster27 December 22, 2012 8:10 AM GMT
Bet day 357. 2pts win Picansort 13.20 Lingfield 5-1 Betfred BOG…..

…….Today I get the feeling we may see an improved performance from Picansort in his race at Lingfield, having been freshened up with a break ahead of his winter campaign has had a recent prep run, and the first time hood is now applied.

I can only describe that previous run as a prep run over today’s C/D, as I’m sure this horse would have been pushed out harder at home during work than in the finish of that particular contest. I’m fairly sure it would not have got Shane Kelly any nominations for ride of the week, but after sitting motionless at the top of the straight made steady headway under a very sympathetic ride(if indeed you could call it a ride), finishing a never nearer 4th. Picansort as his overall record would suggest is a much better horse on a poly surface, and would most definitely fall into the “frustrating” category, with plenty of his runner up finishes having a flatter to deceive about them. Saying that this horse has plenty of early tactical speed, and although his turn of foot at the business is far from electric he can pick up off a decent gallop, and with the likes of Billy Red (could not get to the front in last race) and Welease Bwian likely to press on it could be teed up for something to pick up the pieces close home.

He also seems to run himself into form at this time of year, and excluding his recent race has been runner up in his previous 2 campaigns in December, last year being hampered at a crucial time in the contest, which arguably may have cost him success. His overall record for win’s is not great, but in a 10 runner race with half the field a proverbial mile from any sort of form, of the remainder he makes most appeal at his odds given the way things should pan out this afternoon,  as well as taking into consideration his previous run.
Report therobster27 December 22, 2012 8:11 AM GMT
Final bet day 357. E.W. lucky 15 ….. 3pts staked.

Having reviewed plenty of races last night and early morning for today’s cards, apart from Picansort I could not commit to anything else conclusively given the opposition in each of the race’s I’ve analyzed. I rarely do multi bet’s these days, however on occasions I do avail myself to such perms, and will have a few points worth in an E.W. capacity today in the form of a Lucky 15.

Selection 1.  Picansort 13.20 Lingfield …..For reasons already mentioned.

Selection 2. Hey Big Spender 14.35 Ascot … Apart from doing me a nice favour in his last run he will love conditions, has a record of 3-4-2-1-4 on seasonal bow with that win being over a stiff 3 miles in heavy ground at Carlisle accounting for Big Fella Thanks, and should go well on these terms with ground and trip a worry with others in the field.

Selection 3.Bakbenscher  13.45 Haydock…. If you want a horse that revels in the mud than look no further than he. Saying that I liked him Lto and bitterly disappointed after seeing some good money for him during the morning exchanges. It’s not unreasonable to think he could well have bounced during that race after his fine seasonal debut off the back of a 609 day absence. Wayne Hutchinson is a very able pilot, and has a nigh on 24% win strike rate from his 135 ride for the yard this year, and is still showing a profit of 17.44 to level stakes. Trip, ground and this galloping track all should point to a big run.

Selection 4. Urban De Sivola 15.10 Ascot…. Just think this horse is too high at a fairly big double figure price, and drops in trip as he returns to handicapping in Britain after looking out of his depth in a Grade 1 over in France recently. The yards last 16 runners have yielded 6places and 4 winners, and significant improvement is usually associated with this type of horse when in their care. As a 4yrold (soon to be 5) he could have any amount still to come, and baring in mind he was a well fancied 14-1 shot for last seasons triumph, going handicapping in ground he’s sure to love off 138 may just see him in a completely different light, and easily accounted for Ranjan last season off levels who is significantly shorter in the betting.

Just to keep things simple for me I’ve bet them with B365 for this bet 9-2 , 7-2, 8-1 & 25-1 respectively.
Report Billy Liddell December 22, 2012 8:16 AM GMT
Report therobster27 December 22, 2012 8:26 AM GMT
Result(s) days 350 & 356.

Quinten Collonges       Un Pl -2pts
Notus De La Tour        Un Pl -2pts
Double                  Lost  -1pt

Any Given Day           N/R
Lilac Lace              Won
Double                  Won   +5pts

Profit / Loss                 0pts

Total                        277 3/4pts
Report Facts December 22, 2012 8:27 AM GMT
You started with 100 pts bank ? So to date c177pts profit. How many points staked in total please ?
Report therobster27 December 22, 2012 8:31 AM GMT
Don't know facts, usually do all my number crunching at the end of it all, but do post a summary of these figures.
Report Facts December 22, 2012 8:47 AM GMT
will look forward to seeing the 'accounts' then
Report Glengarry Glen Ross December 22, 2012 12:41 PM GMT
All the best "rob"

Merry Xmas and a profitable New Year

Report Lampus December 22, 2012 1:51 PM GMT
Report therobster27 December 26, 2012 8:59 AM GMT
Bet day 360. 1pt E.W. Riverside Theatre 15.10 Kempton 6-1 Stan James… 1pt E.W.
Bathwick Brave 15.40 Kempton 14-1 Stan James + 1/2pt E.W. double......

........ In today’s King George every contender looks primed to give its running, with the likes of Long Run trying to re-establish himself as the champion chaser in the staying division, with some trying to firm up their claim to the crown, along with numerous other young pretenders trying to get a foot hold among the top echelons of the staying ranks away from the novice divisions. With everything running looking to be in, or certainly heading towards the prime of their life I’m certain it’s going to be a spectacular treat for any neutral. However on this occasion I won’t be a neutral, instead I’m pinning my colours to the mast in the form of the Henderson second string, Riverside Theatre.

Riverside Theatre gets the nod marginally in this competitive renewal, and it’s debatable if his odds of 6-1 are value where some sort of case can be made for the entire field to have an E.W. shout. Saying that I can’t get off the chances of Barry Geraghty’s mount, and for me just about shades it taking into consideration the way the race should pan out. I’m certain this would have been the main objective for this horse as a starting point, and looks certain to have been saved for this race as his seasonal bow, with his previous record first time out reading 1-1-1-1-1. He also has a fantastic record racing right handed with form reading 1-1-1-3-1-F-1-2-1-1, and isolate that form to Kempton you get 1-1-1-1-2, that 2nd being in this race last season. His last 5 races have all been top flight contests, with a PU and that 2nd  in the King George sandwiching 3 excellent Grade 1 wins.

His form November through to February is usually his best, with figures off 1-1-2-1-1-1-2-1-1 with his only run in December on course being a winning one, with form from March  until the end of season making fairly inferior reading 3-1-4-3-5-F-1-PU. All things being equal I’m happy to have a little E.W. at an 11-2 bet to nothing, especially as his overall profile suggests he’s far from bottomed out improvement wise, with soft ground looking to pose no problems either.

Today’s last race at Kempton, if you were lead by the betting looks to revolve around the David Pipe trained Katkeau, and at first glance he did look unlucky Lto in the big fixed brush hurdle race at Haydock.  That day he appeared to be traveling with purpose prior to blundering 3 out, but Imo Conor O’Farrell’s ride that day possibly gave the impression the horse had more in the locker than there actually was, having turned into the straight he gave the horse a little squeeze and flick down its withers with the whip, and no response to my eye was noted, looking to be a spent force quickly after his blunder.
Having gone through the race I do think Saint Roque to be much more appealing in terms of potential, looking also to be traveling with purpose in his latest start before being brought down, to far out to conclusively say if he’d have fought out the finish that day, the suggestion being he would. His price of 7-2 is short enough considering that what if scenario, and thought at his price of 11-1 Bathwick Brave to be much better value all things considered.

Bathwick Brave has recently looked a horse in a completely different league to that of last season, and looks a horse very much on the improve, with that being of a very rapid nature recently. Having won that handicap in November did so showing improvement for the step up in trip, and looked to appreciate the soft underfoot conditions when accounting for a gambled on Pipe animal. He was given a much more patient ride Nto at Newbury under his penalty, and having been asked to take closer order by Tony McCoy was still tanking along with purpose prior to a fairly soft fall 4 out, in the process of again showing marked improvement. Lto at Aintree was again given a patient ride by AP, and looked to still have plenty on turning into the straight under those tactics. I’d wager Tony McCoy was not expecting Master Of  The Sea to pull out as much as he did on the run for home, but Imo lost no cast in defeat trying to concede lumps of weight to the winner, who looked himself to be on a steep upward curve, both pulling well clear of the remainder.

Today’s mark of 124 looks very workable taking into consideration his rapid progression, and if he were trained by someone like Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls he’d undoubtedly be in the mix for market leader.  Obviously he’s not trained by any of those mentioned, hence his fairly unconsidered odds of 11-1, but Kevin Bishop’s been in the game along time, and when a decent horse comes into his care can get the best out of them, and seems to have fairly rapidly worked out what David Pipe could not regarding how to win with this beast.  The yards recent form is very good, with 6 different runners over the last couple or so weeks producing form figures of 2-1-1-2-1-3 a handsome 34.50p profit to boot for level stakes. I think he has at least a lively outsiders chance of winning, and with nothing to suggest his progression has bottomed out just yet he once again looks capable of stepping up
Report therobster27 December 26, 2012 9:06 AM GMT
^^^^^^^^Apologies for some anomalies regarding prices in the write up, I'd wrote this up on the 24th and was waiting until all were priced up today before betting, hence the opening line with Stan james, and prices slightly shorter in my writings regarding the said horses.
Report therobster27 December 28, 2012 8:16 AM GMT
Bet day 362. 1pt E.W. Baileys Concerto 14.40 Leicester 9-1 Ladbrokes,,,during my putting together of  the write up the price has now gone, but for the purpose of the thread will take 8's which is still available......

.....Having gone through Leicester’s 14.40 at his price of 9-1 Baileys Concerto makes plenty of appeal, and making his handicap debut off 120 could well have been let in lightly.

Baileys Concerto is very lightly raced, and in his 5 starts to date has shown a degree of promise in each contest, particularly in both of his recent novice chases. The first one of those mentioned races was his seasonal debut, and within that race was a couple of reasonably regarded recruits to the chasing sphere in Hildisvini and Well Regarded, both 130+ hurdlers who both had a race fitness edge when finishing 1st & 2nd a few weeks previously in another trappy novice chase. Baileys Concerto was hunting that pair up and running a nice race before unseating 2 out, I got the impression he was staying on sufficiently enough without being asked for the maximum to have taken a hand in the finish. His 2nd Lto behind Simply Wings was also another solid effort when trying to concede 5lbs to that 123 rated animal, having both gone for home a long way out Baileys Concerto was no match for the winners stamina reserves, and when putting in a very tired looking jump at the last looked a spent force on the excruciating run up the Towcester hill.
The experience gained from those 2 contest will undoubtedly have put him in good stead for today’s assignment, and it’s interesting connections have opted to keep him right handed at Leicester today having been entered in a handicap at Haydock on Sunday, as well as what looks a shoe in at Fakenham on new years day in maiden company. In both his recent chases his jumping has improved as the race has developed, and after ballooning a couple of early one’s in each contest he did look good taking the obstacles at racing pace. The yard continue to be in decent order, and have had plenty of winners and placed horses throughout December to suggest there is more to come over the immediate coming day’s.
Report therobster27 December 28, 2012 8:33 AM GMT
Result(s) day 357 & 360.

Picansort           Lost        -2pts
Multi bet                       -1/2pt

Riverside Theatre  Un Pl        -2pts
Bathwick Brave pl 7-1(14's adv) +2 1/2Pts
Double             Lost         -1pt

profit  / loss                  -3pts

Total                           274 3/4pts
Report comingupthehill December 28, 2012 1:25 PM GMT
looks like you ve got your double bubble by news years eve and if your lucky might get triple crown.
Report therobster27 December 28, 2012 5:16 PM GMT
Bet for day 363. 1pt E.W. Any Given Day 15.15 Newbury 11-1 Stan James, write up later....
Report therobster27 December 28, 2012 5:28 PM GMT
Final bet for day 363. 1pt E.W. Categorical 14.55 Doncaster 14-1 B365 (4-1+Ch4 offer) + 1/2 pt E.W. double with AGD @ 8-1, write up's later......
Report therobster27 December 28, 2012 7:56 PM GMT
......Tomorrow’s 15.15 at Newbury appears  a reasonable enough looking  handicap,  with a couple of the older hands  Backbenscher and El Dancer showing some nice recent form, and combine those with the up and  coming brigade that make up the majority of the field you have what appears a very, very competitive affair. However I do think the top weight Any Given Day is the absolute class act of this particular event, and Imo is more than capable of conceding weight all round in this contest that lacks the usual strength in depth that he’s well and truly used to.

Any Given Day  is also entered in the Centaur Hurdle on New Years day at Cheltenham, but connections look to  rely on Peddler Cross(at this stage) to take on Oscar Whiskey in that particular race, and have given Any Given Day a much easier looking assignment in tomorrow’s class 2 handicap at Newbury instead. Compared to his last 3 Christmas assignments tomorrows race  in all honesty looks worlds apart from those. He ran a very credible 5th in the Challow on this card in 2009,  then gave 2nd best only to Oscar Whiskey in the well contested 3 counties hurdle at Cheltenham on New years day 2011, then slightly disappointed in the Relkeel hurdle at the back end of that year, the principles in that race again being high class individuals.

Since winning and showing decent form in some nice novice events back in 2009 he has been campaigned at very high level, well above the usual handicap’s, contesting and running well in the likes of the Greatwood and World hurdle to name but a few top notch events he has contested in this period to date. Saying that he was given a break from those decent type of events in November last year, and in winning that event was giving huge lumps of weight away to everything bar the classy Get Me Out Of Here, and in conceding that weight was doing so (Imo) to much better horses than in tomorrows event. He is very capable of running well fresh, and his last 3 appearances off the back of lengthy breaks have yielded a form line of 1-2(nk)-1. The assessor has him back on that last winning mark at Haydock last November(155), and with the yard in scintillating form presently I can’t see past a massive run from Any Given Day in tomorrow’s race.

Now onto Doncaster’s penultimate race, where Keith Reveley’s Categorical must have a big say in the outcome, especially given the underfoot conditions.

Tomorrow looks set to be on the heavier side of soft on Town Moor, and this will suit Categorical down to a tee. His last 8 runs on ground worse than soft stretches back to February 2010, which has produced a form line in all spheres of 1-PU-2-1-2-2-2-1, looking without a doubt very well suited to plodging in the mud. Going back to the start of the year saw this horse run his best couple of races during that last campaign, a couple of nice runner up spots in the mud at Newcastle  & Ayr, off marks of 127 and 130 respectively. Tomorrow he has dropped to a mark off 117, and although his previous couple of starts temper enthusiasm tomorrow he gets the ground he loves. The Reverley stable are another who look in radiant from presently, and I for one are expecting a bold show from their inmate tomorrow in a race that looks there for the taking.
Report Glengarry Glen Ross December 29, 2012 9:37 AM GMT
gl "rob"

all the best for today and the New Year and thank you for a great thread.

Report therobster27 December 29, 2012 9:42 AM GMT
Cheers GGR, hope I can go out all guns blazing like the way I started, can't really complain overall.... I'm pleased with my modest return for the year.
Report NMR December 29, 2012 9:46 AM GMT
WD Rob, is there gonna be a part 3?
Report therobster27 December 29, 2012 9:55 AM GMT
Possibly NMR, Only problem being is I'm finding myself with less & less time for trawling through video footage, as well as form. You really need to put the time in to get anything out of this game, and the majority of the time you need to have put this work in before firms price up, which is usually about tea time the previous day.
Report TheNorfolkMafia December 29, 2012 9:57 AM GMT

You seem like a bit of a guesser to me!

Why can't you post detailed analysis, like wot Skinto does!

Only joking, as you know!

Superb write-ups, second only to Skinto!

Good Luck, always!

Report knot in wood December 29, 2012 10:10 AM GMT
why not just put your selections up rob,if you go again next year.
those write ups are very time consuming.

well done on another successful year.
Report Facts December 29, 2012 10:14 AM GMT
Looking forward to your year summary :-

No of selections
No.of Wins
Points staked
Points returned

Points Profit

Thank you
Report therobster27 December 29, 2012 10:33 AM GMT
Don't mind the write up's KIW, the time consuming bit is analyzing the race and coming up with the information that will guide my decision to formulate a selection, easy enough to transfer that on here from my paper scribbling.

Will put that data up on new years eve facts.
Report Facts December 29, 2012 12:05 PM GMT
Thanks rob.
Report therobster27 December 31, 2012 8:43 PM GMT
Result(s) day 362 & 363.

Baileys Concerto           Un Pl       -2pts

Any Given Day               Un Pl     - 2pts
Categorical                 Un Pl     - 2pts

Double                      Lost      - 1 pt

Profit / Loss                         - 7pts

Total for year                 267 ¾ pt…. 167 ¾ pts profit
Report therobster27 December 31, 2012 8:47 PM GMT
Well another year over and thankfully I’ve achieved (plus a little more) than what I set out to do, double the starting bank. Despite an almost identical finishing total as to last year, it somehow feels far less successful, maybe it’s because I had more big single winners during last years thread than the current one. It has still be very enjoyable to do, and would like to thank all that have looked in and wished the venture well, and also for leaving your views and thoughts on the races that I’d covered.

Please find below this year’s numbers crunched…..

                                                 No. selections     Winners          P / L at SP       P/L at adv
    31    6    +18 3/4pts    +20 pts
    19    1    - 17 pts    - 16 pts
    27    4    + 6 pts    + 9 ½ pts
    21    1    - 14 pts    - 9 pts
    22    2    - 12 ¾pts    + 3pts
    26    1    - 20 pts    - 19 pts
    13    0    -13 pts    - 13 pts
    8    0    - 8 pts    - 8 pts
September    15    2    - 6 ¼ pts    - 1pt

    31    6    + 13 pts    + 29 pts
    23    3    - 2 ½ pts    + 7 ½ pts
    18    3    - 4 ¼ pts    + ½ pt
    256    29    - 59 pts    + 3 ½ pts

The table illustrates a 1pt single win at both industry S.P. and advised prices on all selections, which is fairly dire reading by anyone’s standards. However due to the E.W. nature of my betting, and the inclusion of E.W.doubles into my strategies, is in my eye’s proof that being a successful punter does not necessarily mean you have to bang in winners day in day out.

In this years thread, if my calculations are correct I have invested a total of 700.5 pts which has yielded a profit of 167 ¾ pts, and annual profit on points invested of approximately 24 %.

However I choose to see it this way….. I’ve made a 167.75 % return on my initial investment at the start of the year of 2K, and no high street bank is going to give you those rates.

Happy New Year, and all the best for 2013 with your punting

Kind regards, therobster
Report therobster27 December 31, 2012 8:48 PM GMT
Did have those figures nice and neat on a word grid but it's not transferred over quite as neat
Report Lampus December 31, 2012 8:56 PM GMT
See  you  next year trb
and thank  you
Report Valuebetting December 31, 2012 9:40 PM GMT
yes well done rob,
all the best for this year,
Report Deltâ December 31, 2012 9:49 PM GMT
WD therobster27

great to see a real year long thread, one of the best on here along with Well Chief for content, puts those imaginary stakes at imaginanary prices x 50 points staked fantasy threads to shame

happy and a prosperous new year to you
Report GEORGE.B December 31, 2012 9:53 PM GMT
Very well done Robster on another successful year's tipstering Happy

Good luck if you decide to put your neck on the block again in 2013 and aim for a hat-trick of profitable years!

All the best
Report BJG December 31, 2012 10:02 PM GMT
wd rob, keep it up Cool
Report shambles100 December 31, 2012 11:05 PM GMT
Thank you mate for all your efforts over 2012. Looking forward to 2013. Thanks once again
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