Horse Antepost
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a fair way out but the flat season is on us and looking for a bit of possible value at this early stage . tarnawa will have an autumn campaign and likely she will be fresher than most . she is top class and quite possible she is still improving she sets the standard for me ,love is ground dependent so risky as to if she will turn up , i think the 33/1 high definition has some mileage ,fav for the derby and unbeaten at 2 he showed a smart turn of foot to win both starts coming from last to first to win comfortably both times in the end looking as though middle distances will suit . obviously has to improve but has the pedigree connections and could be very smart . 33/1 each way looks very fair imo. tarnawa at 9/1 as a saver also appeals opinions encouraged good luck.
selection arc de triompe .HIGH DEFINITION 33/1 each way and TARNAWA 9/1 .
selection arc de triompe .HIGH DEFINITION 33/1 each way and TARNAWA 9/1 .
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took some 70/1 about Logician - looked a beast as a 3yo but disappointed last year - has an entry for the Yorkshire Cup so at least seems to be training
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The form of Love's three Group 1 wins last year hasn't worked out at all with the placed horses in those races getting beaten in subsequent runs, reapeatedly. For me, Love is a lay at any single figure prices on this evidence.
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Well researched and noted .Marksman. I hadn't noted that at all.
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philomene is interesting unbeaten fabre filly by dubawai open to loads of improvement ,has loads to find but the potential is there 33/1 atm and could go for the french guineas this weekend .
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Early play on Cheshire Academy @ 33/1.
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snowfall and adaire has to be considered at the moment, especially as probably softish ground in oct, nothing in the older brigade that looks brilliant , ( love vastly overated imo anyway), so well see what the diane produces, could snowfall turn up there ?, could pyledriver be a big outsider or even al assy ?,
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st marks basilica at 10/1 looks a good trade?, been quietly doing all its winning in france, arc is a long way off and the horse does have a lot of entries,
could be a spent force if it runs, just too many unknowns at the moment, so probably better to wait. looked like their best horse last year and its done well so far. |
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I do not think he stays the distance in a proper Gp 1 race. Also, I think AOB has others better qualified eg Snowfall, High Definition and possibly Bolshoi Ballet.
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I thought I'd be able to lay Love at 8.0 overnight for the ARC, but I must have been over optimistic. With Lord North out of the field, even an easy win won't see her shorten much. I will keep trying to lay her because I've laid a few others in single figures and several more at less than 20. (If Lord North had run, and been well beaten by Love, then Love would shorten and be clear fav.)
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I was wrong: Now that she's won I've been able to lay her at 5.5 and 5.7 for the Arc. Glad she was hard to lay at 8.0 before today's race now!
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'Lay' St Marks Basilica at 9.4 here. I think he's most unlikely to turn up. Even if he does the competition and stamina (unknown) over 12f will be a bridge too far; 10f is his optimum dostance.
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Good to see the French Derby form being franked by SMB and Pretty Tiger.
 Have watched it back a couple more times tonight and have simply had to go back in and have another lump on Cheshire Academy at 27/1. |
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unclepuncle,
I've had a look at Prix du Jockey Club after reading that and its true that Cheshire Academy ran a terrific race from a terrible draw. He found himself right at the back, with a big field to get past, and did much better than any of those drawn on his immediate inside. Good luck with your bets! (I won't be laying him at this price) |
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have cashed out on tarnawa,dont think her price will shorten much while shes in her box till autumn and 9/1 is too short on reflection have been backing philomene and cheshire academy each way at 33s and 25s ( thanks uncle for highlighting it ) and after watching the prix du jockey club a good few times again agree with uncle and marksman and is a fair price imo.runs tommorow.
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cheshire academy looked good finishing off as he ran through horses that had raced to win . gp de paris shows hes wide of the mark , well wide .
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hes got to make it there . adayar looks like the winner to me . wouldnt be interested in the price now . i think he loses in the sprint of the niel , but , runs well and then wins the arc . get on a few days ater the niel and hes sound is my opinion
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cashed out of tarnawa , looks like done me dough on high deff and cheshire academy ..........left with philomene each way 33/1 pretty happy wi that one tbh.
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Day of reckoning for Tarnawa backers! (Or not for those who have already cashed out)
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Impressive!
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it was impressive i agree . she was 20lb well in though and nothing challenged her in the market either . so its a maybe from me
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also reading through the form . a slow surface doesnt favour her , she only won the l,opera by a short neck . won the b.c on firm . the l,opera win reads very poorly now . i,d get out of dodge on the impressive comeback , if your a arc backer and think more about the b.c
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I think it's between the 3 yr olds ie Adayar and Snowfall, but which? Their elders could be inconvenienced by the wfa allowance; the French contingent with the exception of the Japanese are much of a muchness, I believe.
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I wouldn't completely dismiss the form of Prix de L'Opera as she had the subsequent Breeders Cup F&M turf winner, AUDARYA, back in 3rd. And the 2nd, Alpine Star was only beaten a short head at York after a long layoff. Tarnawa was probably inconvenienced by the Heavy ground here, which was even worse than it had been the previous year.
Her win in the Breeders Cup, beating Magical puts her right there with the best fillies and mares, as Magical was a win machine whose success rate was only dented by coming up against Enable on occasions. Tarnawa won the Vermielle really well on Good to Soft. Her only defeat in the last 2 years was on Soft at Ascot, and that could be put down to the ground. Imo, Tarnawa looks solid on Good to Soft or better. No one knows what the going will be like at Parislongchamp, so I think her single figure price is correct at the moment. |
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i wouldnt dismiss tarnawa marksman . in my eyes she has to prove that shes the same horse as last year . not done that by beating listed class . right now "my value" would be 10-1 -12-1 . if she goes well in the irish champion or yorkshire oaks then wins the vermeille then shes a 6-1 shot not now though
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ive had a few shots at the arc cashed out my bets for no loss on tarnawa and looks like i have done a bit of dough on high definition and cheshire academy s,happens ! have been sticking the odd tenners aand scores on philomene and will continue to drip feed on her each way, philomene looks to have a good bit to find but her prix diane run looked pretty good to me she was finishing like a train and passed around 8 horses in the last furlong and a half finishing 2nd but giving the impression she will relish the extra 2f ,could be she was just passing beaten horses who had run there race but she has always been well regarded by connections and should continue her progress, well bred and 33/1 and this race will cut up . love prob wont go if its soft or worse st marks and mishriff may go 10f ,snowfall has been impressive in her wins but this will be the acid test .33s each way will do me fabre won this race plenty of times and knows whats needed .
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I'd not rule out High Definition just yet. If he runs and wins The Voltigeur handsomely next week he'll definitely be in the picture. But, St Mark's Basilica is extremely unlikely even if Snowfall and Love are ruled out as he's already cemented his standing over 8f and 10f. Also, debuting in a 12f Arc is commercially too risky and unnecessary.
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Just bought tickets on the France galop website. No restrictions on crowd numbers currently.
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Let´s not rule out High Definition yet. A win in a Class 4 handicap next month at Carlisle and he´s back on track for this.
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Reroute High Definition to Cheltenham. His run today was nothing but disappointing. A change of trainer perhaps.
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just hope that Adayar stays fit.Backed him AP
for this for a good pay day.Snowfall was very impressive in the Yorkshire Oaks but would think Adayar would've done that to the 2nd and more. Only time will tell but cannot have Wonderful Tonight or Hurricane Lane for this at all,if Adayar runs. GL ALL |
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I firmly believe Adayar is a better horse than Snowfall merely on the opposition they have encountered. I'd like to see both make this event in October possibly fighting out the finish too; Tarnawa is no slouch, wfa allowance the significant deterrent though.
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Adayar has had a hind leg infection thus misses his prep for The Arc this sunday. No wonder he was a bit weak in The Exchange. Some barstewards with inside info had been manipulating market as usual.
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Snowfall/Lurve
spit the dummy out  |
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I think The Vermeille has certainly exposed the shortcoming of Snowfall.
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i dont 123 . i think rh is not preferable for her and she was a little short of work as shes not fading , but , isnt so good racing on the off - fore . a bc filly mare and turf looks her best option .
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i think teona is the one to give adayar the most trouble . she has clearly improved for running on the off fore . different horse on a rh track
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sorry to be blathering on about left or right but i think the form shows that . teona is a lot better right handed , snowfall is worse r/handed . adayar handles both
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I was always a bit doubtful about Snowfall.
Snawfall: English Oaks: 2m 42.67 Adayar: English Derby: 2m 36.85 That is a chunk of change. Unless the rail was pushed out added 50 yards for the Oaks, or the ground dried incredibly in one day, you have to think the Oaks was about Listed level. |
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I'm a late-comer to the Adayar appreciation clan given its ownership. But, his win in the King George made the difference. I think he's an outstanding chance here, if he's not too exuberant at the off; he was still keen early on in the King George.
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