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2021 arc longchamp
2021 arc longchamp
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yeah I see now - the RP has Adayar and Snowfall in the entries - but Paris Turf doesn't havew them in the 101 entries. so thelatarps is correct they both need supplementing.
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I can't see past either Adayar and Hurricane Lane. Not sure in what order.
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Looking at her form it appears that Snowfall has never faced a colt in her twelve races.
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i prefer Adayar over HL - although Buick might have to make all the running unless Coolmore use one as a pacemaker. my worry with HL is that he has arguably had 4 hard races and might hvae left his best behind.
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Anyone who has ever read my comments on the Arc over the years will know that I have argued against older horses (5+) .
The last time I submitted the record was 5 years ago so I thought I would update it.The record overall shows that 3 yr olds have 8-10x more chance of winning than 5+. Those who look for flaws in the analysis will argue that plenty of the older horses are past it, and I will agree with that. But, this record below shows those older horses who were fancied enough to be at the front of the market (12/1 or below) and which were beaten. Some very notable horses in this list. There have been winners aged 5+, 5 in fact,since 1975, but an interesting fact is that they were all longer prices. The 5+ horses this year are Tarnawa (4.1) Chrono Genesis (12.0) Broome (120.0) ARC LOSERS 5 YRS PLUS AGE 5+ Arc losers TOTAL 25 Enable (2020) 9/10 Enable (2019)1/2 Order of St George (2017) 8/1 Postponed (2016) 15/8 Treve (2015) 5/1 So You Think (2011)9/2 Shirocco (2006)11/4 Daylami (1999) 4/1 Pilsudski 1997)4/ Swain(1997)9/1 Opera House (1993)4/1 Mtoto(1988) 6/ Triptych (1987)19/4 Sagace (1985)6/10 All Along (1984) Time Charter(1984) Strawberry Road (1984) Stanerra(1983)9/1 Ardross (1982)6/1 Ardross (1981)11/2 Balmerino (1977)12/1 Allez France (1975) 7/4 Dahlia (1975)9/1 Park Top (1969) 4/1 Anilin (1967) 12/1 AGE 5+ Arc Winners TOTAL 4 Waldgeist (2019) 13/1 Marienbard (2002 16/1 Tony Bin (1988) 14/1 Star Appeal (1975) 119/1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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For me, each Arc has to be judged on the merits of its runners. If Tarnawa is beaten this year it doesn't look likely to be because she's ott, more likely because she isn't good enough. Can I see her winning? Well if Adayar isn't in the same form as earlier in the year and Hurricane Lane starts feeling the effects of some big efforts then yes of course it's possible. I just think she's underpriced as things stand and I'd say the other 5yo mare, Chrono Genesis, appears to have a similar chance at a much bigger price. Obviously Snowfall comes into the reckoning if she can put her recent poor run behind her, but I think it more likely she won't.
Others who could possibly capitalise (or at least bag a place) if the better runners don't perform are Alenquer and Mojo Star at big prices. In my view, one who should be triple the odds is Teona, she's shown nowhere near Arc winning form. With Snowfall below par this year's Vermeille was very poor, can only see Teona going anywhere near close if it's crawl and sprint. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Statistically I would be against Hurricane Lane.
It is well known that no horse has gone on straight from the St Leger and won the Arc, though admittedly, Nijinsky did go close in 1970. My database goes back to start of 2000. In the last 21 years there have been 7 St Leger runners who ran next in the Arc, and they all failed to make the the first 3. There have been 18 horses who ran in the St Leger and then contested a Group 1 within 28 days of that run and they were all beaten. Date Horse Placing Race ---------- ----------------------- --------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2010-10-03 MIDAS TOUCH GB 17 QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF 2000-09-16 CHIMES AT MIDNIGHT USA 6 JEFFERSON SMURFIT MEMORIAL IRISH ST.LEGER (GROUP 1) 2000-09-16 ROSTROPOVICH I IRE 4 JEFFERSON SMURFIT MEMORIAL IRISH ST.LEGER (GROUP 1) 2001-10-07 MILAN GB 5 PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE-LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2001-10-07 SADDLER*S CREEK USA 16 PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE-LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2002-09-28 SHOLOKHOV IRE 4 QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES CLASS A (SPONSORED BY NETJETS) (GROUP 1) 2004-10-02 TYCOON GB 3 JOE HIRSCH TURF CLASSIC INVITATIONAL (GRADE 1) 2004-09-26 DARSALAM IRE 3 IVG - PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1) 2005-10-02 SCORPION IRE 10 PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-09-28 HINDU KUSH IRE 8 IVG PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1) 2008-09-28 BASHKIROV GB 9 IVG PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1) 2011-10-02 MASKED MARVEL GB 16 QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF 2012-10-07 CAMELOT GB 7 QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF 2013-10-06 LEADING LIGHT IRE 12 QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF 2014-10-05 KINGSTON HILL GB 4 QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ NO GELDINGS TURF 2017-10-01 CAPRI IRE 17 QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF) 2018-10-07 KEW GARDENS IRE 7 QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF) 2018-10-07 NELSON IRE 8 QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF) Process finished with exit code 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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in all fairness to User Friendly,she went close.
Only just btn into 2nd. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Marksman
That looks like a large bias too, so HL needs to be reassessed, obviously, in view of that. Figgis There has been a faiir amount of rain in Paris and with steady rain forecast for Saturday and Sunday, Teona might not even run as the trainer has said as much. Needs fast ground. Love is another horse best on fast ground. The Japanese horses rarely encounter soft ground so we have no way of knowing how they will run. Clearly a question mark against them. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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what I would say about Hurricane Lane is that I believe him to be a well-above average Leger winner - in the last 20 years I would only put Conduit in the same class and before that you have to back to User Friendly.
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penzance, I'd forgotten about User Friendly. She really was a star 3yo!
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El Condor Passa was 2nd in the race on heavy.
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I know Love has been written off as never being any good by some people, but I've said before I think the problem was she stayed still as a 3yo and didn't make the required wfa improvement as a 4yo. Since the KG third I have her going backwards further with each start, 6lbs lower at York then a further drop of 4lbs last time out. It would take a leap of faith to back her in these circumstances, so I won't be, but I still wouldn't be totally shocked if she went close. I have her KG third right up to her 3yo best but without the benefit of the allowances she was getting. She may have disappointed many as the fav that day but I still make that performance better than anything Tarnawa has acheived. If she could return to that form she wouldn't be far away on these terms.
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funnily enough Waldgeist & Tony Bin both were 3rd in
the King George btn around 3L when over turning the form in the Arc,with the jollys Enable & Mtoto. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Yes good point. I've said before that winning the KG often requires as good a performance, or sometimes an even better one, as winning an Arc. The Arc carries more prestige and usually has a deeper field, but in most years a fair number of the best horses don't perform up to par in the race. Adayar's KG win is more than good enough to win a decent Arc, it's just a question of him being in the same form.
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Who's the most likely winner on the present going, all things being equal? I cannot have Tarnawa despite her credentials of last season - she's no Treve or Enable, and her age. And, this year's renewal has 3 formidable protagonists ie Adayar, Snowfall and Hurricane Lane, all stay 12f very well.
I'd like either Adayar or Snowfall to win. The latter was below par last time; Hurricane Lane has stamina in abundance and will like the softer ground, if more rain falls. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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no hype about the japanese horse this year c genesis. she is a stayer......has won g1's over 11f and 12.5f......always runs to her best. not sure she has the class to beat this field though.
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Regarding Tarnawa, Weld was already talking about a 2021 Arc bid with her by the end of last season. So it isn't the case that the Arc became the plan after seeing improvement from her this year, she was always being aimed here, all being well. I wouldn't argue against the notion that horses can improve as 5yos. The vast majority don't, but a few do, and a couple of the fastest older horse performances I've rated in recent years was from the much improved 5yo Poet's Word. However, Weld didn't have a crystal ball to her improving this year, so he was fancying her chances based on last year's form.
It's not like I don't rate the mare, I backed her a couple of times in France last season and thought she'd been underrated, but at no stage did I see her as being good enough to take an all age Gp1 including colts. I could be wrong of course. Her second in the Irish Champion Stakes could be put forward as evidence that she is good enough, but, for me, it was no real proof. Lots of horses can finish close up in a slowly run sprint finish race. Poetic Flare finished 3/4 lengths behind her but in my view I don't think the race proved he really stayed. Actually I'm not even convinced that SMB proved he was as quite good as the day he won the Eclipse. Yes she can still win if she runs well on the day (and as she's been specifically aimed at the race you'd expect she will) and one or two others don't quite run up to their previous best, but I never expected to see her so short considering the opposition. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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BBC weather forecast for Paris showing a stack of rain Saturday/Sunday so I have been backing Alenquer at 40 on here and 33/1 e/w with Billies.
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After posting stats for St Leger winners/runners previously, I did the same data base query for the Derby: Winners running in another Group1 within 28 days and runners running in another Group1 within 28 days. The subsequent success of Derby winners/runners highlights the comparitively difficult task faced by St Leger winners/runners in the Arc.
****************************************************************************************************************************************************** DERBY WINNERS Date Horse Placing Race ---------- ------------------- --------- ---------------------------------------------------------- 2000-07-02 SINNDAR IRE 1 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) 2001-07-01 GALILEO IRE 1 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2002-06-30 HIGH CHAPARRAL IRE 1 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (COLTS) & FILLIES) 2004-06-27 NORTH LIGHT IRE 2 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2014-06-28 AUSTRALIA GB 1 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-06-25 HARZAND IRE 1 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 5 WINS FROM 6 RUNS (83.33%) ****************************************************************************************************************************************************** ALL DERBY RUNNERS Date Horse Placing Race ---------- ----------------------- --------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010-06-27 AT FIRST SIGHT IRE 5 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 2010-06-27 JAN VERMEER IRE 3 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 2010-06-27 MIDAS TOUCH GB 2 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 2010-06-27 COORDINATED CUT IRE 7 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 2000-07-02 SINNDAR IRE 1 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) 2000-06-25 BEAT HOLLOW GB 1 GRAND PRIX DE PARIS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2000-06-25 BEST OF THE BESTS IRE 4 GRAND PRIX DE PARIS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2001-07-01 GALILEO IRE 1 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2001-07-01 GOLAN IRE 3 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2001-07-01 MR COMBUSTIBLE IRE 6 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2001-07-01 PERFECT SUNDAY USA 2 GRAND PRIX DE SAINT-CLOUD (GROUP 1) 2001-07-01 CASHEL BAY USA 11 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2002-06-30 HIGH CHAPARRAL IRE 1 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (COLTS) & FILLIES) 2002-06-18 WHERE OR WHEN IRE 5 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES CLASS A SHOWCASE RACE (GROUP 1) (COLTS) 2003-06-29 THE GREAT GATSBY IRE 5 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-06-29 ALAMSHAR IRE 1 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-06-22 MAGISTRETTI USA 2 JUDDMONTE GRAND PRIX DE PARIS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-06-22 ALBERTO GIACOMETTI IRE 6 JUDDMONTE GRAND PRIX DE PARIS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-06-29 BRIAN BORU GB 4 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2004-06-27 NORTH LIGHT IRE 2 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2004-06-27 RULE OF LAW USA 4 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2004-06-27 LET THE LION ROAR GB 5 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2004-06-27 PERCUSSIONIST IRE 10 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-06-26 WALK IN THE PARK IRE 8 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-06-26 FRACAS IRE 7 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-06-26 GYPSY KING I IRE UR BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-06-14 ORATORIO IRE 3 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS) 2008-06-29 TARTAN BEARER IRE 3 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-06-29 CASUAL CONQUEST IRE 2 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-06-29 WASHINGTON IRVING IRE 11 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-06-29 ALESSANDRO VOLTA GB 4 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-06-29 CURTAIN CALL FR 5 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-06-29 FROZEN FIRE GER 1 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-06-29 BASHKIROV GB 6 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2009-06-28 FAME AND GLORY GB 1 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2009-06-28 MASTEROFTHEHORSE IRE 4 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2009-06-28 GOLDEN SWORD GB 2 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2009-06-28 GAN AMHRAS IRE 6 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2011-06-26 TREASURE BEACH GB 1 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2011-06-26 CARLTON HOUSE USA 4 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2011-06-26 MEMPHIS TENNESSEE IRE 3 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2011-06-26 NATIVE KHAN FR 7 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2011-06-26 SEVILLE GER 2 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2013-06-18 MARS IRE 3 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS 2013-06-18 DAWN APPROACH IRE 1 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS 2014-06-28 AUSTRALIA GB 1 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2014-06-28 FASCINATING ROCK IRE 5 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2014-06-28 KINGFISHER IRE 2 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2014-06-28 ORCHESTRA IRE 3 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2015-06-27 JACK HOBBS GB 1 150TH DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2015-06-27 STORM THE STARS USA 2 150TH DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2015-06-27 GIOVANNI CANALETTO IRE 3 150TH DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2015-06-27 KILIMANJARO IRE 4 150TH DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2015-06-27 CARBON DATING IRE 7 150TH DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-06-25 HARZAND IRE 1 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-06-25 IDAHO IRE 2 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-06-25 RED VERDON USA 4 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-06-25 PORT DOUGLAS IRE 5 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-06-25 SHOGUN IRE 7 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-06-25 MOONLIGHT MAGIC GB 6 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2019-06-18 CIRCUS MAXIMUS IRE 1 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES (GROUP 1) (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (COLTS) 1999-06-27 DALIAPOUR IRE 2 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) 1999-06-27 BEAT ALL USA 4 BUDWEISER IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) 1999-06-27 BRANCASTER USA 8 GRAND PRIX DE PARIS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2021-06-26 MOJO STAR IRE 5 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) 2021-06-26 HURRICANE LANE IRE 1 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) 2021-06-26 MAC SWINEY IRE 6 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) 14 WINS FROM 67 RUNS (20.9%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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When I pasted this into the box, all my headers and columns were in nice straight lines. But after pressing the "post reply" button, they have ended up skew whiff.
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2000 GUINEAS WINNERS Date Horse Placing Race ---------- ---------------------- --------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2002-05-25 ROCK OF GIBRALTAR IRE 1 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2006-05-27 GEORGE WASHINGTON IRE 2 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2007-05-26 COCKNEY REBEL IRE 1 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-05-24 HENRYTHENAVIGATOR USA 1 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2015-05-23 GLENEAGLES IRE 1 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-05-21 GALILEO GOLD GB 2 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 2017-05-27 CHURCHILL IRE 1 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) 2019-05-25 MAGNA GRECIA IRE 5 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2021-05-16 POETIC FLARE IRE 6 EMIRATES POULE D*ESSAI DES POULAINS (GROUP 1) (3YO COLTS) (GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) 2021-05-22 POETIC FLARE IRE 2 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 5 WINS FROM 10 RUNS (50.0%) ****************************************************************************************************************************************************** 2000 GUINEAS RUNNERS Date Horse Placing Race ---------- ----------------------- --------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010-05-16 DICK TURPIN IRE 2 POULE D*ESSAI DES POULAINS GROUP 1 3YO COLTS TURF 2010-05-22 CANFORD CLIFFS IRE 1 ABU DHABI IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2010-05-22 XTENSION IRE 5 ABU DHABI IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2010-05-22 FENCING MASTER GB 10 ABU DHABI IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2010-05-22 VISCOUNT NELSON USA 3 ABU DHABI IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2010-05-16 BUZZWORD GB 4 POULE D*ESSAI DES POULAINS GROUP 1 3YO COLTS TURF 2000-05-27 GIANT*S CAUSEWAY USA 2 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) 2000-05-27 BARATHEA GUEST GB 4 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) 2000-05-27 CAPE TOWN IRE 3 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) 2000-05-27 BEST LIGHT IRE 5 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) 2001-05-26 TAMBURLAINE IRE 5 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2001-05-26 MINARDI USA 3 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2002-05-25 ROCK OF GIBRALTAR IRE 1 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2002-05-12 REDBACK GB 9 GAINSBOROUGH POULE D*ESSAI DES POULAINS (GROUP 1) (COLTS) 2003-05-24 ZAFEEN FR 14 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-05-24 TOUT SEUL IRE 3 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-05-24 SATURN IRE 4 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-05-24 TOMAHAWK USA 11 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-05-25 SONGLARK I GB 5 DERBY ITALIANO (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-05-24 INDIAN HAVEN GB 1 ENTENMANN*S IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2003-05-25 LUNDY*S LANE IRE 3 DERBY ITALIANO (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2004-05-22 AZAMOUR IRE 2 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2004-05-22 GREY SWALLOW IRE 3 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2004-05-22 BACHELOR DUKE USA 1 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-05-21 REBEL REBEL IRE 4 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-05-21 ORATORIO IRE 2 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-05-21 DUBAWI IRE 1 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-05-21 DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT IRE 3 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2005-05-15 TONY JAMES IRE 11 GAINSBOROUGH POULE D*ESSAI DES POULAINS (GROUP 1) (COLTS) (GRANDE PISTE) 2005-05-21 CAPABLE GUEST IRE 6 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2006-05-27 GEORGE WASHINGTON IRE 2 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2006-05-27 ARAAFA IRE 1 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2007-05-26 COCKNEY REBEL IRE 1 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2007-05-26 VITAL EQUINE IRE 6 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2007-05-26 DUKE OF MARMALADE IRE 4 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-05-24 HENRYTHENAVIGATOR USA 1 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-05-24 NEW APPROACH IRE 2 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-05-24 STUBBS ART IRE 3 **** IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2009-05-23 DELEGATOR GB 8 ****.COM IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2009-05-23 MASTERCRAFTSMAN IRE 1 ****.COM IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2011-05-21 DUBAWI GOLD GB 2 ABU DHABI IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES GROUP 1 2011-05-21 SLIM SHADEY GB 7 ABU DHABI IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES GROUP 1 2011-05-21 RODERIC O*CONNOR IRE 1 ABU DHABI IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES GROUP 1 2012-05-26 HERMIVAL IRE 6 ABU DHABI IRISH 2000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2012-05-26 TRUMPET MAJOR IRE 10 ABU DHABI IRISH 2000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2012-05-13 COUPE DE VILLE IRE 7 POULE D*ESSAI DES POULAINS GROUP 1 3YO COLTS TURF 2012-05-26 BORN TO SEA IRE 5 ABU DHABI IRISH 2000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2012-05-26 POWER GB 1 ABU DHABI IRISH 2000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2013-05-25 VAN DER NEER GB 8 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2013-05-25 GEORGE VANCOUVER USA 7 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2014-05-24 KINGMAN GB 1 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2014-05-24 SHIFTING POWER GB 2 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2015-05-23 GLENEAGLES IRE 1 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2015-05-23 IVAWOOD IRE 3 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES 2016-05-21 GALILEO GOLD GB 2 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 2016-05-21 AIR VICE MARSHAL USA 6 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 2016-05-15 FIRST SELECTION SPA 2 POULE D*ESSAI DES POULAINS GROUP 1 3YO COLTS STRAIGHT TURF 2016-05-21 AIR FORCE BLUE USA 7 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS GROUP 1 2017-05-27 CHURCHILL IRE 1 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) 2017-05-27 LANCASTER BOMBER USA 5 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) 2017-05-27 SPIRIT OF VALOR USA 6 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) 2018-05-26 ELARQAM GB 6 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2018-05-26 GUSTAV KLIMT IRE 3 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2019-05-25 MAGNA GRECIA IRE 5 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2019-05-25 SKARDU GB 4 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2019-05-25 EMARAATY ANA GB 12 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) 2020-06-20 WICHITA IRE 3 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES (GROUP 1) (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (COLTS) 2020-06-20 PINATUBO IRE 2 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES (GROUP 1) (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (COLTS) 2020-06-20 ROYAL DORNOCH IRE 7 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES (GROUP 1) (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (COLTS) 2020-06-20 ARIZONA IRE 6 ST JAMES*S PALACE STAKES (GROUP 1) (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (COLTS) 2020-06-19 MUMS TIPPLE IRE 15 COMMONWEALTH CUP (GROUP 1) (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2021-05-16 POETIC FLARE IRE 6 EMIRATES POULE D*ESSAI DES POULAINS (GROUP 1) (3YO COLTS) (GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) 2021-05-22 POETIC FLARE IRE 2 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2021-05-22 LUCKY VEGA IRE 4 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2021-05-22 VAN GOGH USA 3 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2021-05-22 WEMBLEY IRE 11 TATTERSALLS IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 14 WINS FROM 76 RUNS (18.42%) ...and with that, I rest my case. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Marksman, if you want to paste a spreadsheet on to here,
Open your spreadsheet and insert a blank column (a) before your first column of data, (b) between each column of data and (c) after your last column of data. Type the pipe symbol (shift & the key next to Z) twice in the first row of the first blank column and fill down to the last row of data you want to display. Copy and paste the column of double pipe symbols to the remaining blank columns. Then simply highlight all the cells from top left to bottom right, click on copy and then paste in to your post. Click on post reply and you should see something like this....... Time Course Horse Race type Runners Weight 16:25 Ascot Hoof It Handicap 28 132 16:25 Ascot Pastoral Player Handicap 28 130 16:25 Ascot Victoire De Lyphar (IRE) Handicap 28 130 16:25 Ascot Deacon Blues Handicap 28 125 16:25 Ascot Macs Power (IRE) Handicap 28 127 16:25 Ascot High Standing (USA) Handicap 28 136 16:25 Ascot Waffle (IRE) Handicap 28 127 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Or even something like this
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Thanks chewy, I'll try do that next time.
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On a decent surface Tarnawa looks the one, but it looks as if plenty of rain will scupper that thought.
Assuming rain, Hurricane Lane then looks like the solid each-way, if you can ignore the less than solid jock on board. I doubt Adayar would want it much worse than Good to Soft, and the same goes for Snowfall, who on form might well not be good enough anyway. If an outsider wins then it has been hiding itself away pretty well. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Pretty decent RUK write up/preview.
https://www.racingtv.com/news/runnner-by-runner-guide-to-the-prix-de-l-arc-de-triomphe | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think the most common reason for St Leger winners' lack of success in the Arc is due to the Leger being a tougher race than other 3yo races. It is a classic, not a trial, so horses will be trained to a peak to give everything over 14.5 furlongs. I downloaded the ITV racing from 11 Sept to see whether Hurricane Lane had a hard race and he did: Buick rode him out aggresively to the line and the horse responded willingly. The striking thing was how exhausted he looked after the race. Walking back, his neck was horizontal to the ground and he seemed to walk back without any enthusiasm. It was the same in the winner's enclosure.
I had noticed this before Jason Weaver said: "But he was tired. He has quite literally gone into the red zone. But a beautiful bit of athletics that was." [Then, when Francesca suggested that he could be an Arc contender:] "I would just be vary wary of how he comes out of this, he has danced so many dances this year. He was a tired horse pulling up there." I then watched his win in the Irish Derby and there was quite a difference to his appearance after the race: Here his neck was significantly higher than after the Leger, and handlers on each side seemed to be applying some force to prevent it going further up. His gait was much brisker and he seemed to be taking everything in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvxzEmQWylQ Taking this into account, I will have Hurricane Lane as the only red in my book and all the others will be running for me, even if the going is heavy. There is no point in being in this game if you are not prepared to back your opinions. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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All very subjective stuff. I am sure many horses have looked tired at a point in time only to win at another point in time.
I suppose even a headline grabber like Shark can occasionally get something right although if the horse wins on Sunday I am sure he will conveniently forget what he said. Hurricane Lane has had a longish season, but was given a two month break. He has only disappointed once (still a puzzle for me), and has never been a bridle merchant. Shark & Co are claiming he was bordering exhausted after the Leger, his first race for two months over the longest distance he has encountered. That was three weeks ago. How is he now, isn't that far more relevant? Other than Godolphin nobody knows, but given they have a strong chance with Adayar why would you risk Hurricane Lane if he is giving the impression that the Arc is one race too many? Whatever his state of health I wouldn't have thought laying a 6/1 shot was a particularly bold statement. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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what I would say about Hurricane Lane is that I believe him to be a well-above average Leger winner - in the last 20 years I would only put Conduit in the same class and before that you have to back to User Friendly.
I'd go further than that and say I think he's the fastest (in 3yo season) horse to win the Leger since Reference Point. Reference Point bombed out in the Arc. It is a classic, not a trial, so horses will be trained to a peak to give everything over 14.5 furlongs. True, and very few horses have been specifically targeted to peak only for the Leger, it usually becomes the target after other targets. Conduit went on to win at the Breeders' Cup after the Leger, but for me he was a bit different than most Leger winners as he took his form to a whole new level when winning at Doncaster, rather than just repeating what he'd done earlier, so he was still quite a fresh horse in that sense. I said before the Derby that I thought HL had a hard trial at York and had possibly left his chance behind. I was right that time and was back with him for the Irish Derby. Mind you, after the Irish Derby I also said I thought he'd need a rest, which couldn't have been more wrong when he came out again quite quickly to win easily in France. These opinions can only ever be subjective as none of us know how each individual horse will stand up to hard races. Connections will know more than us, as in they'll know if a horse hasn't been working quite as well as before. This doesn't mean they still won't run the horse. It's a regular occurrence to hear a trainer talk up their horse's chances, only for a look at the market to reveal, unlike on other starts, none of them have had a bean on. However, while it's obviously better to know a horse has worked well before a race instead of lacklustre, it still doesn't guarantee a good showing. I remember PCH being happy with Authorized before he put up a no show in the Arc. Of course Hurricane Lane can win, he may prove to be more like Dylan Thomas than Authorized, but, I think for most horses, having a season and prep like he's had makes the prospect less likely. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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draw has none of the "big 4" on inside or wide outside
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1. Hurricane Lane
2. Mojo Star 3. Snowfall 4. Tarnawa 5. Alenquer 6. Adayar 7. Love 8. Broome 9. Deep Bond 10. Bubble Gift 11. Raabihah 12. Sealiway 13. Chrono Genesis 14. Torquator Tasso 15. Baby Rider I've been time travelling, and looked up the result.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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With such a small sample size do people really place that much importance on the draw in the Arc? I know some people have gone more in depth and used other races at the track to make the case, but, for me, the problem with that is many other types of race at Longchamp are run more in the usual crawl and sprint style, which will place more importance on the draw.
I just look at past results and ask were any horses that were good enough beaten only by the draw. In recent years I can only think of Sea Of Class where some people thought she would've won with a better trip, but exaggerated hold up tactics were employed there and there was some trouble in running. On Treve's third attempt, while I'm sure she still wouldn't have beaten the winner, I think she would've finished closer but the problem that day was due to being held up off a slow early pace, which probably would've happened wherever she was drawn. So,if we do get an extremely slow early pace, and, more importantly, they don't quicken until later than usual then the draw and early positioning can definitely play a part. However, in a well run race, as the Arc is more often than not, I don't see it having much bearing unless you believe there are very tight margins between the abilities on show here. Personally the draw isn't even going to be a consideration for my betting in this race. I just hope it's well run, and there's no way of knowing that for sure in advance. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The draw is very important on fast ground.
Horses can be inconvenienced on slow ground: 2012 Arc: Solemia 1st (drawn 6); Orfevre 2nd (drawn 18); Masterstroke 3rd (drawn 17) A small field and/or slow ground and the draw does not matter as much. Strangely draw 1 has only won once since 1971 (47 races, ignore Chantilly). Draw 1 (1 win); 2 (3); 3 (5); 4 (5); 6 (7); 7 (6); 8 (1); 9 (1); 10: 2; 11 (0); 12 (1); 13 (0); 14 (5); !!!!!!!! 15 (3); 16 (1); 17 (2); 18 (1) The stall machines hold 14 so !!!!!!!! indicates the gap between the two sets of stall machines. You can see that draws 8 to 13 are disadvantaged (hemmed in); 14 and 15 have room to progress forward. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Horses can be inconvenienced on slow ground: 2012 Arc: Solemia 1st (drawn 6); Orfevre 2nd (drawn 18); Masterstroke 3rd (drawn 17)
I'd say Solemis ran the race of her life that day which probably was largely due to the heavy ground, but was Orfevre really beaten by the draw that day or was he just not good enough? I backed Orfevre the following year buying into the excuse that he'd been unlucky, but against Treve I had him running to the exact same mark with no hard luck story. I obviously don't expect every bet to win and just because one is beaten doesn't make it a bad bet in the scheme of things, but that is one bet that I definitely regretted, as I'd projected too much on to Orfevre's ability instead of taking the result at face value. Not that he'd have beaten Treve anyway, but in both Arcs he showed more Gp2 form than genuine Gp1 ability. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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*Solemia
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Arc winners from a high draw
1974: Allez France, drawn 15, odds 0.5 *** 1977: Alleged, drawn 18, odds 3.8 ** 1979: Three Troikas, drawn 17, odds 8.8 ** 1984: Sagace, drawn 17, odds 2.9 *** 1989: Carroll House, drawn 16, odds 19 ** 2001: Sakhee, drawn 15, odds 2.2 *** 2013: Treve, drawn 15, odds 4.5 *** * fast time: 144.49 to 148.00 ** medium time: 148.10 to 151.97 *** slow time: 152.00 to 159.40 All the high draw winners were in medium (3 wins)** or slow times (4 wins)*** No fast time winner * was from a high draw except Golden Horn in 2015 (drawn 14 i.e. the gap) In 2015 Treve was going for her hat-trick of wins. Frankie from draw 14 took advantage of the slow pace, moved up wide on the outside, led into the straight, Treve about 4 or 5 lengths behind him. Frankie started the sprint for home, all had plenty of gas left following the slow pace, and the order into the straight and the finishing order remained much the same. Of the 19 fastest Arc times (from 47 races) only two winners (draw 10; 14) from 19 were drawn in double digits. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Orfevre was beaten by a few things in combination: his high draw; very heavy ground; overconfident jockey who fooled around at the back of the field.
Orfevre had everything beaten by 7 lengths, except one horse, a 12f heavy ground specialist, who was probably Group 2 class. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dancing Brave won from a high draw.15/15
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Of the 19 fastest Arc times (from 47 races) only two winners (draw 10; 14) from 19 were drawn in double digits
But if we're talking about fast times rather than fast time performances, Found was the fastest Arc time and drawn 12? |