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2021 arc longchamp
2021 arc longchamp
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Soft now, but if you believe this forecast (https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507), it will be as heavy as last year on the day of the race. But BBC forecasts for Arc day have been wrong (in both directions) in recent years.
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The 1m Gp2 time confirms soft ground, no worse.
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On heavy going it's anyone's guess. German horses are used to it and run on desperate ground all the time. German breds especially like it. Torquator Tasso is by Adlerflug who won the German Derby on heavy. His dam, Tijuana is descended from Acatenango who was 3 times champion German horse and also German Derby winner.
If enough of the fancied horses can't perform on the going (or are withdrawn) there could be room for Torquator Tasso to run into a place. |
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currently it doesn't seem as soft as Arc day last year - but the rain is only just arriving
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currently it doesn't seem as soft as Arc day last year
It isn't. Very similar to when Workforce won, described as very soft but just soft really. |
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You can watch Longchamp (and all French races) on the France Galop website.
It is very useful if you want to look at the previous races of one horse. You need to register to France Galop, but it is easy. |
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Stormy weather forecast overnight.Ground should be testing on sunday.
Dettori seems to have worked out a bias.Race in the van. I bet he'd like to ride a prominent runner that likes soft going in the Arc.Love doesn't fit the bill but Broome does!Scratch Love cause of the ground and give Frankie the leg up on Broome 66/1. |
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The French horses are absolute dogsh*t. Just look at the races today.
First race 1. UK 2. UK 3. French 50-1 4. Irish 5. UK 6. German Third race 1. UK 2. French 2-1 3. German 4. UK 5. French 6. German 7. Spain Fourth race 1. UK 2. UK 3. French 4. French 5. UK Fifth race 1. UK 2. UK Sixth race (Handicap) No British runners, but at least they managed to beat the two German horses. If a French horse wins this it will be very disappointing. |
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I think we all need to realise that whatever the conditions today , there is 16hours of reasonable rain before tomorrow afternoon .
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Question?
 When, if ever, was the last time a horse improved 10 lbs to win an Arc? It's never happened and we won;t be starting tomorrow either.  |
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Thanks kincsem.
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LoyalHoncho
When, if ever, was the last time a horse improved 10 lbs to win an Arc? Solemia in 2012, RPR 111/112, ran to 124 in the Arc. |
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Why did Tarnawa not run last year? She'd be receiving lumps of weight from her elders, and she'd the form too. A miss opportunity, I believe. This renewal is a lot tougher, I firmly believe.
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A missed opportunity perhaps .....but she did win an Arc trial , an Arc weekend race and the Breeders Cup turf .
She was the best turf on the planet last year. My only concern for the mare is did the diabolical performance by the 'winner' of the Champions Stakes have any negative effect on this top class horse. |
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have addedd the german horse torquater tasso each way 100/1 4 places by the way love a nonner !
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The best horse Tarnawa beat last season was Alpine Star who barely stayed 10f; beat Magical when Moore left his riding brain in a US bathroom.
This season she beat non-entities in Ireland, and a troubled St Mark's Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes. And, here she's giving weight to 3 above average 3 yr olds. |
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Tarnawa is my favourite group 1 performer who is active ......but I do hope you are right.
I am on for a very big win if Hurricane Lane wins and a very very very big win if Snowfall wins , last legs of 2 different very successful 'dart throwing' perms. |
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good luck 626
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Love has gone
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(I didn't see Foyleswar's post above)
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She was the best turf on the planet last year.
not even close |
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LoyalHoncho
When, if ever, was the last time a horse improved 10 lbs to win an Arc? Solemia in 2012, RPR 111/112, ran to 124 in the Arc. Additionally,Peintre Celebre (97) +12,Hellissio (96) +13 Carnegie (94) +11. My records only go back to 91 but no doubt there are more going back further. 4 in 29 years indicates it can be expected to happen on average 1 in 7 years. |
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Hard to believe but I take both of your words for it.
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To put it more into context, Peintre Celebre started 11/5f, Helissio 9/5, Carnegie 3/1. So all those other runners were strongly fancied and it's debatable whether they really improved or it's just that RP ratings were behind the curve. Either way, none of them were considered to need to improve 10lbs to win the race or they wouldn't have started so short. Solemia was the only real shock improver.
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@impossible123
Why did Tarnawa not run last year? She'd be receiving lumps of weight from her elders, and she'd the form too. A miss opportunity, I believe. This renewal is a lot tougher, I firmly believe. ----------------- 100% with you. Last year´s reneweal was the worst Arc in the last 50 years. She´d have gotten weight from that mug Sottsass. Through a line with In Swoop Torquator Tasso was just two lengths inferior to Sottsass. This year Torquator Tasso is 100-1, despite coming of a (weak) G1 win at Baden-Baden. Truly one of the worst Arc non-runner decisions ever. |
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To put it more into context, Peintre Celebre started 11/5f, Helissio 9/5, Carnegie 3/1. So all those other runners were strongly fancied and it's debatable whether they really improved or it's just that RP ratings were behind the curve. Either way, none of them were considered to need to improve 10lbs to win the race or they wouldn't have started so short. Solemia was the only real shock improver.
In 1994 , Sheikh M had 4 horses running so the 3/1 was the PM coupled price for Carnegie,Intrepidity, Kings Theatre and Richard of York. I remember it well because I was at Longchamp and didn't have a strong view so the 3/1 looked a value bet. I have a vague memory that Carnegie was around 6/1 on its own with BM's but I can't be sure. Peintre Celebre was truly under-rated. I had it as a 130+ so your comment is correct about that one horse and it was one of the best Arc winners I have seen live. Anyway, the context doesn't really matter because the point is only about how RPR's were improved. Horses that didn't win but improved 10 lb or more to name but a few, In Swoop +11, Gold Trip +10 in 2020. Important to note those that ran significantly below form too eg Daylami -37 (SP 5.5) Montjeu -18 (SP 2.2) Enable -18 (SP2.2) The main point is that horses can run well above or below bet PB irrespective of price. |
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Turftrax reporting Heavy, Soft in places this morning
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small wager on Bubble Gift at 100 - Niel winner by Nathaniel
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Why did Tarnawa not run last year?
She would have been up against 2 apparent wonder fillies in Enable (who had already won the race twice) and Love who was considered, at the time, to be possibly as good as Enable. Dermott Weld wasn't to know that Enable would't perform and Love would be withdrawn due to the ground. |
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So a great betting heat and tricky with the going.
I’ll start with the horses that are not for me but can certainly see why others are with them. I’ll offer them respect without respecting the odds that are being offered or taken. Hurricane lane just a tough horse with good ratings, however these ratings are far above where I have him. I have him a legitimate group 1 horse but only that. My main problem with him in this spot today is his ability to hold a position in a race. He got away with it in the Grand Prix de Paris copping a poor field who basically didn’t have the class or the speed they went in the race. I can see a messy race for him before clugging on late at the one pace. I know he is favourite and I’ve always liked him but will be oddly surprised if he has the class to win an arc. He’s a 15/2 chance on how I’ve rated him so 3/1 makes little appeal Alenquer people clearly been sniffing glue at the odds, he is another slow horse who may clug on at the one paced into the money. His main problem lies on when the pace picks up into the straight and holding his position. I have a feeling Marquand may try to use him early here because he is genuine but also he is just a one paced clugger. However when the proper horses come I have a feeling he will be out the back of the telly after using the petrol early, try as he might. Trainer flying so no excuses. If they were all like him for attitude we’d all be happy as he’s a trier. 28/1 would be a fair reflection of his actual chances. Snowfall. People will argue it was only a prep the last day and I get that, however she’d only run a month previously to this, so wasn’t like she was coming in lacking in fitness 5/1 makes no appeal after this showing ground or not today, I’d want 8/1 at the very least same I won’t argue or quibble about the German angle, they will be trying to pick up some prize money, this is incredibly tough for a horse of his ability. Mojo star a nice day out for the owner. So I’ve thrown a few bets at a few here just because the odds are correct and I believe in how I’ve rated them. So my savers are deep bond who I think is slightly underrated by the market and I like his prep in the prix foy, the market said he was needing a run but he belied that and still beat a good stick in broome. He is actually still quite a lightly raced 4 year old and I liked what I saw. He’s 40 on here and considering he may improve plenty still that’s fair odds for me. His action and his form in Japan says he’ll handle the going so he’s got a chance in my book. I’ve had a small bet on sealaway. Distance is the worry with him and a prep run. However he loves the swamp and he’s under the radar at 60 on here. He doesn’t lack for tactical speed and he is a poke at the odds. I think though the petrol gauge will likely hit the red 1 1/2 furlongs out but a poke all the same. Ok so I like tarnawa and her prep, ground was always going to be my issue with her but she has handled it before, admittedly in a lower race than she faces here. She is getting near 6/1 now so I am going to have a bit of a saver on her as I just have always liked the filly and think her preparation is perfect. She will run well. Adayar well like tarnawa the ground is my issue but considering I put him in at 11/8. 4/1 is fine with me and how I have figured my own handicapping out he is just a book saver now on this going, although I believe he is an exceptional horse. I may have more on later, but at the moment my book is where I want it. So main bet chrono Genesis, I have fallen in the Japanese trap door previously with orfevre, el condor pasa and kiseki so has taken me a lot of years to figure there ratings out as they overrated by the racing post. Most Japanese horses imo struggle through staying the distance in the arc. When dealing with chrono Genesis we have a mare who ran a race against mishriff to give me personally something solid to work off, some may say this is the sealing of her rating but not me as feel she in Japan is 7/8 pounds better horse going right handed and she is a strong stayer. When beaten in meydan some argued she was unlucky and she was to a small extent, by a barge by her countryman who is miles inferior to her at home but out ran there odds on the day. My main thing with that race is her problem to change leg leads for her rider in the straight. She only found her stridewhen straightened up but it was to late. Mishriff I believe ran his race that day and was fit after winning in Saudi previously. Ok so she she isn’t unbeatable but right handed she is an exceptional mare. In regards going she is by bago a mud lark out of a mare who has produced plenty of winners with soft in the pedigree so I’ve been with her for quite a period of time with the ground in mind. I have watched most of her races and she likes the mud my only worry is the lay off on this type of going as it just isn’t ideal hopefully the trainer has her spot on. I rated her around 11/2 for this so a double figure price is excellent in my book. Best of luck in a tricky arc, with whatever you play chaps, it isn’t easy but still a great puzzle to try and solve betting wise. |
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green on all bar Chrono and the hurricane
the going has to surely militate against a result one could conceivably expect on better ground bound to be some hard luck stories but one will prevail let's get ready to rumble |
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I transferred Euro 200 from my Dublin bank to Betfair yesterday (the money left).
Nothing arrived in my Betfair account. I think the Betfair Euro bank is in Dublin. Customer support are on the case.  I got a reply"after taking a look, I can see that the deposit errors were made yesterday. Because of this, you will have to wait for the reconciliation process to be carried out today. At COB (Close of Business) each day the Client Funds department will run reports to match up all attempted deposits with the received deposits." |
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Chrono Genesis must be a real hit and hope bet.
She ran Firm(8); Gd/Fm(1); Good(3); Gd/Sf "yielding"(1). No runs on soft or heavy, and the "yielding" run would probably described here as Gd/Fm. I listed all runners and going they ran on (not their wins), most experience on heavy/soft on left; almost nil or nil experience on heavy/soft on right. Sealiway; Torquator Tasso; Alenquer; Mojo Star; Adayar; Raabihah; Hurricane Lane; Bubble Gift/Baby Rider; Tarnawa; Snowfall; Broome; [Love]; Deep Bond; Chrono Genesis. |
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Harry Callaghan
Chrono Genesis has never ran on Heavy,one race on yeilding, the rest on (firm - good).Unless I'm missing some of her races, how does this like the mud? |
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funds must have floundered in the heavy going..didn't quite get the trip
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Good Afternoon all, I was taken with Raabihah at Deauville, she put 7.5 lengths between herself and Silence Please, I think she is better than her official rating, seems to be improving and should go on the ground, looks value e/w more on the place. Good luck folks
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I can not bet (see above posts).
Although I picked Hurricane Lane further up the thread if I was having a bet it would be different as the ground has changed greatly. My bet would be Torquator Tasso at 110s win***, a horse that finished 3/4 length second in the 2020 Deutsches Derby (19 runners) to In Swoop, 2nd in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe last year. All Torquator Tasso's 10 races were in Germany, so it is difficult to know how good or how bad he is. He was 4th in his first race (his debut was as a 3yo). He was 6th in his first race this year after a 210 day break. His defeats were to good horses: In Swoop; Barney Roy; Sunny Queen (by neck, beat her by 4 1/2 later); Alpinista (she was on a run of 1221111) *** if you are betting to place you need help Torquator Tasso may plod along and never be a factor, but Longchamp is clay and Longchamp heavy changes form greatly. Looking at videos on Youtube he seems to lack gears, and is often clumsy getting out from behind horses, arriving too late. |
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Sorry Kincsem but I'm not grasping the point of your last posy. Are you advocating interest in the German horse or ruling it out? Thanks.
And Sandown I'll give you evens that a horse improves today by 10lbs to win the Arc. |
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penzance 03 Oct 21 11:49 Joined: 26 Feb 04 | Topic/replies: 11,530 | Blogger: penzance's blog
Harry Callaghan Chrono Genesis has never ran on Heavy,one race on yeilding, the rest on (firm - good).Unless I'm missing some of her races, how does this like the mud? It’s a fair question and believe you me penzance I’ve hunted through everything I can get my hands on. Obviously most race in Japan are run on fast. Obviously it comes down to odds for me, always does. My main things have been pedigree, trainer jockey comments and one race where I think she liked the going. Like I say I think she is far better right handed and finding races that she has encountered proper soft isn’t easy hence your question and rightly so. I’ll happily be wrong as I am on many occasions. This race here has convinced me that she will at least handle soft ( no horse likes holding by the way) to a certain extent without being certain but you have to factor in the odds we can take here, as she should be at the top of market imo and isn’t, hence I’m playing her with doubters like you and kinscem dismissing her chances and everyone is entitled to there opinion, I won’t knock it as I’m just as brutal, so odds are good and I think she’s top class right handed. I’ll take my chances as I have handicapped her top rated behind adayar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HYLolZzMkU&t=191s Heavy rain before this race |
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johnnythebull
funds must have floundered in the heavy going..didn't quite get the trip I was on the phone to customer services at KBC Bank (I was on the phone, they weren't). I had to hang up as they never answer and could miss the race waiting for them to help. Real "ashtray on a motorbike" customer services.  |