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2021 arc longchamp
2021 arc longchamp
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Found was the fastest Arc time and drawn 12?
At Chantilly. I also keep draw stats on the Arc at Longchamp. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Apologies, yes was just about to correct my schoolboy error, different course entirely
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The analysis from Marksman concerning St Leger runners set me thinking. It may, as he said, be down to the St Leger being over 14.6f and therefore more demanding (and not therefore a good prep for the Arc) but there is also another obvious factor. It requires horses to have more or as much stamina than speed
Marksman's analysis could be expanded to include winners/runners from another Leger, the Irish version, also held in September. A brief look at the runners who went on to the Arc include such illustrious names as Order of St George, Vinnie Roe, Oscar Shindler,and less well known winner Dark Lomond. None of these managed to win or place in the Arc either. One name missed from Marksman list by the way is that of Sixties Icon in 2006.Go back further, to 1980 and other top St Leger horses who doubled up include Broadway Flyer 94, Bobs Return, Armiger in 93, Toulon 91,Snurge , Hellenic 90,Dimuendo 88, Sun Princess 83,Cut Above 81. A couple of top stayers not to be forgotten who failed in the Arc are Stradivarious 20, Ardross 82. Just to add that this stat is not a slam dunk. We can't forget double Arc winner Alleged (2nd in SL) and Nijinsky just failed as well. Nevertheless, there is a case here to say that stamina horses don't have a great record in the Arc, clearly a turn of foot is needed as well. There are 4 horses this year which one might have another look at with this angle in mind, namely Hurricane Lane, Chrono Genesis, Mojo Star and Deep Bond. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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penzance
Dancing Brave won from a high draw.15/15 I looked at the video on YouTube and I would say you are correct. I checked a few form books (Timeform annual; Fitzgerald Arc book) just now and do not see the draw there. This looks like an error by me, and I will correct my info. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I still think the stats can take a broad brush and cover the reality of what really happened. Taking a look at some of the fastest run races.
Danedream - was she advantaged and runners like Snow Fairy and SYT disadvantaged? I have no doubts that both of those runners were nowhere near their best form on the day, so let's take that as a possible. Peintre Celebre - a strong fav but that day seemed to put up a performance much better than seen previously. Maybe he'd just improved but lets class that as another possible. Bago - quite a weak winner in my book. Was he advantaged and a horse like North Light inconvenienced by the draw or was NL simply ott. Given that 100/1 shot Acropolis drawn 19 of 19 finished only 3.5 lengths behind the winner I don't see how the result could be attributed to the draw. Sinndar - nothing there to say the result was influenced in any way by the draw Treve's second win, see above Sea The Stars - ditto Rail Link - just the 7 runners In my view results like that prove nothing conclusive about the draw. Taking it further and looking at the proximity of some of the beaten runners deemed inconvenienced also throws more doubt on any concrete conclusions. Perhaps it would be easier to ask for horses who might've won some of those fast races but were beaten by the draw? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Correction. Order of St George 3rd in Arc2016
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These are the draw positions of the fast race winners, fastest race time first on the left, increasing to the right:
2,2,5,7,3,8,4,6,3,14,4,6,7,6,6,7,10,6,1 [average draw 5.6, avg runners 16.8] These are the draw positions of the slow race winners, fastest race time first on the left, increasing to the right: 15,14,4,7,14,8,7,3,15,15,6,9,4,14,17,3,14 [average draw 9.9, avg runners 17.6] A great horse drawn low on fast ground can win, and a great horse drawn high can win (much less likely). A great horse drawn low on slow ground can win, and a great horse drawn high can win (draw less important). Slow ground, high draw winners 15(Treve),14(Dalakhani),4,7,14(Gold River),8,7,3,15(Sakhee),15(Allez France),6,9,4,14(Subotica),17(Sagace),3,14(Ivanjica) I notice most of the high draw, slow ground winners are French. The French top level summer racing program is mostly mile races. The 2400m horses are resting, while the British and Irish are running Derbys, King George, St Leger. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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if you're good enough you can win from any draw.
All Along won from 24 in 1983. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Enable's second Arc, drawn 6 with Sea Of Class drawn 15. Enable racing prominently while SOC came from a long way back and had to wait for a clear run. Some people think SOC should've won. I'm not totally convinced but of course it's a possibility. However, if you also believe that the draw plays such a significant part then you'd have to think that not only should SOC have won, but that drawn next door to Enable she'd have won very comfortably.
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Well spotted Sandown re Sixties Icon.
My database search missed that one out because I was looking for horses that ran in a GROUP 1 race containing "ST LEGER" in the title of races run at DONCASTER. However, the race was run at York that year. Thanks for putting me right. I will do an update and hopefully I will be able to show the results in tidy columns this time. I didn't include the Irish St Leger because it is open to older horses and they may be more resiliant to having had hard races and running over longer distances, but that is something else to look into. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Date | Horse | Placing | Race
2010-10-03 | MIDAS TOUCH GB | 17 | QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF 2000-09-16 | CHIMES AT MIDNIGHT USA | 6 | JEFFERSON SMURFIT MEMORIAL IRISH ST.LEGER (GROUP 1) 2000-09-16 | ROSTROPOVICH I IRE | 4 | JEFFERSON SMURFIT MEMORIAL IRISH ST.LEGER (GROUP 1) 2001-10-07 | MILAN GB | 5 | PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE-LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2001-10-07 | SADDLER*S CREEK USA | 16 | PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE-LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2002-09-28 | SHOLOKHOV IRE | 4 | QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES CLASS A (SPONSORED BY NETJETS) (GROUP 1) 2004-10-02 | TYCOON GB | 3 | JOE HIRSCH TURF CLASSIC INVITATIONAL (GRADE 1) 2004-09-26 | DARSALAM IRE | 3 | IVG - PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1) 2005-10-02 | SCORPION IRE | 10 | PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2006-10-01 | SIXTIES ICON GB | 6 | PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) 2008-09-28 | HINDU KUSH IRE | 8 | IVG PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1) 2008-09-28 | BASHKIROV GB | 9 | IVG PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1) 2011-10-02 | MASKED MARVEL GB | 16 | QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF 2012-10-07 | CAMELOT GB | 7 | QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF 2013-10-06 | LEADING LIGHT IRE | 12 | QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES TURF 2014-10-05 | KINGSTON HILL GB | 4 | QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ NO GELDINGS TURF 2017-10-01 | CAPRI IRE | 17 | QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF) 2018-10-07 | KEW GARDENS IRE | 7 | QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF) 2018-10-07 | NELSON IRE | 8 | QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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St Leger runners running again in Group 1s within the next 28 days (2000-2020)
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Oops, I can't read and interpret my Arc draw data.
 Disregard what I posted above. I have to check things. The data is correct but I am reading it wrong. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I think that when discussing the effect of the draw, we have to look at how the draw influences how the race is run, the effect on tactics, the advantage of running on the fresh ground next to the rail all around Longchamp. Sometimes the distance actually run becomes available which can be quite significant where bends are concerned. I was there in 2018 and backed Sea of Class and no-one will ever convince me that Enable would have won without the trouble in running that SOC experienced. I also backed Orfevre when beaten by Solemnia and the amount of extra ground covered by Orfevre must have been significant.(Fortunately, I laid Orfevre at 1.03 in-running which was a relief.)
Just to remind people that 2*pi(3.1)* r means each position adds about 6 yards per circuit so at Longchamp you can halve that for each position as there is only one long turn. So, 3yds per draw or 30 yards for a difference of 10 places (10 lengths approx) is quite significant if the jockey doesn't drop in. On most tracks, the jockey has to be aware of the draw disadvantage even if there is no going bias. In short, the draw always matters on a round course no matter what. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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NB I assume that each position is worth 1 yd for a horse width
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NB I assume that each position is worth 1 yd for a horse width
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Sandown, I remember Solemia's win like it was yesterday. As an antepost layer that was my second best result ever. I didn't see the whole race live because when Orfevre hit the front, I covered my eyes with my hands. When the commentator started to give me hope, I opened my fingers a little and just through the cracks I saw Orfevere bump into the rail and I realised that I was going to win big! Very similar to Bob Hope's reaction in the film Sorrowful Jones.
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It's possible that SOC would've beaten Enable as nobody knows what would've happened if SOC would've had a completely uninterrupted passage. The problem with accepting it as a foregone conclusion is that it means assuming the momentum that SOC showed late on would've carried to the line if she'd got out sooner. Whereas we see races most days where a horse puts in a late charge looking like it's going to win, it has enough time and every chance, but doesn't quite get there. There's no saying that SOC's effort wouldn't have petered out the same with an earlier timed challenge. Would she have one? I'd side with no but I accept possibly she would have just about won. Would she have won easily with a better draw though? Nah, not having that one.
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*would she have WON
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Ok, I had a look again.
Winners from draw positions 1971 to 2020 (ignoring Chantilly) Draw (Winners): 1(1); 2(7); 3(6); 4(4); 5(2); 6(4); 7(1); 8(0); 9(1); 10(3); 11(4); 12(3); 13(0); 14(2); 15(3); 16(2); 17(1); 21(1); 22(1); 24(1) The average finishing positions from each draw position Draw 1 (8.00) 2nd lowest average finishing position Draw 2 (8.53) 5th lowest Draw 3 (8.21) 3rd lowest Draw 4 (10.66) 17th lowest of 27 Draw 5 (8.36) 4th lowest All the above draw averages from 47 runnings. The lowest average was Draw 26 (7.67), unreliable as only used three times, finishing 9th, 9th, 5th The average finishing position from stalls 1,2,3 was 8.25 The average finishing position from stalls 16,17,18 was 11.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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These are Irish St Leger runners running again within 28 days in another Group 1.
Horse
YAVANA*S PACE IRE || 8 || 2 || DEUTSCHE POST EURO EXPRESS PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1) || 2000-09-24 || 2 || CHIMES AT MIDNIGHT USA || 3 || 6 || TURF CLASSIC INVITATIONAL (GRADE 1) || 2000-10-07 || 12 || LERMONTOV USA || 3 || 8 || QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES CLASS A (GROUP 1) || 2000-09-23 || 11 || CHIMES AT MIDNIGHT USA || 4 || 6 || PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE-LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) || 2001-10-07 || 17 || YAVANA*S PACE IRE || 9 || 7 || DEUTSCHE POST EURO EXPRESS PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1) || 2001-09-23 || 2 || BALLINGARRY IRE || 3 || 3 || CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL (GRADE 1) || 2002-09-29 || 1 || VINNIE ROE IRE || 5 || 1 || PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) || 2003-10-05 || 5 || BOLLIN ERIC GB || 4 || 4 || PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) (COLTS & FILLIES) || 2003-10-05 || 8 || **** IRE || 6 || 1 || PRIX DU CADRAN CASINO-THEATRE BARRIERE DE TOULOUSE (GROUP 1) || 2007-10-07 || 3 || ALANDI IRE || 4 || 1 || QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN GROUP 1 || 2009-10-04 || 1 || **** IRE || 8 || 8 || QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN GROUP 1 || 2009-10-04 || 3 || PALE MIMOSA IRE || 5 || 5 || QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN GROUP 1 4YO+ TURF || 2014-10-05 || 3 || ORDER OF ST GEORGE IRE || 4 || 2 || QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE GROUP 1 3YO+ NO GELDINGS TURF || 2016-10-02 || 3 || ORDER OF ST GEORGE IRE || 5 || 1 || QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF) || 2017-10-01 || 4 || BARBADOS IRE || 4 || 4 || QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN (GROUP 1) (4YO+) (NEW & GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) || 2020-10-03 || 6 || PASSION IRE || 3 || 5 || QATAR PRIX DE ROYALLIEU (GROUP 1) (3YO+ FILLIES & MARES) (GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) || 2020-10-03 || 5 || GENGHIS KHAN IRE || 3 || 5 || PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1) || 1999-10-03 || 14 || 4 WINS FROM 17 RUNS (23.53%) (This is a more typical result for horses who have run in an ordinary Group 1, rather than the English St Leger. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I'd say of more significance than the draw is a horse's way of being ridden and/or jockey initiative (or lack of it). SOC had generally been held up in rear. Employing those same tactics in the Arc she was always going to be vulnerable to experiencing trouble in running, or just as problematic, a slowly run race. As for Adayar, he usually races prominently and isn't lazy out of the stalls. He may be drawn in 11, which might not be absolutely ideal to gain a favoured early position, but the Arc is hardly ever run at an overly fast pace early on. Even in a big field there should be plenty of time for Buick to use Adayar's size and engine to secure a reasonably decent position, providing he's proactive.
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Just checking to see if **** (****) is a banned word.
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Looks like he has been cancelled. I wonder how long statue will remain at Ascot before it is dragged off and dropped into the Thames.
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Kinscem fair play for the effort and marksman
I’m not a big stats fan mostly because of odds, imo your analysis it has to be based on chances from the horses from the said gate you are analysing? From the draw analysis you have put to together because if a stall has had a 100/1 rag in it every time how can you say how prolific the said horse has been from a certain gate. This deep analysis is the only way you could sway me to a bias in draw and would require a huge amount of work from your good self.. It’s the same for marksman, what prices or chances did the certain horses have running from the ledger to here, I doubt we’ve had one this good for a long period of time. Once again odds and chances of winning has to be key to your analysis otherwise I see both as worthless and open to any interpretation you want to believe in. When dealing with hurricane lane you have a horse that hasn’t prepped in the voltigeur so ok he was tired winning, which can mean he needed the run or they snapped him. He has shown himself to be very tough going from English to Irish derbys before winning in France so maybe just needed the race in the leger. I have my own reasons with him but wouldn’t be using the ledger against him as think he is incredibly tough horse | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It looks like being another total bog on Sunday as they are forecast 18 hours of non stop heavy rain from Sat. Evening... I wish they would bring racing forward a week in Europe, to have this race end Sept.. it's ruined by rain so often.. looking at the weather, if it was Ascot it might be in doubt..
..hence.. I've gone e.w. on the German outsider, they are often unconsidered yet go well on heavy.. and he actually has some good form.. quite a few just aren't going to show their best in these conditions.. ...I'm sorry for Raclette as well, my favourite 2yo.. as I'm not sure how she'll handle it.. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Enable carried all before her last year, topping off a great campaign with a dominant display in this race at Chantilly. This season her training hadn't gone so smoothly, and she only made her reappearance last month, but a comfortable victory over the King George runner-up Crystal Ocean at Kempton ensured she was sent off a short-priced favourite here. She got lucky with the draw, getting stall six, while her main market rivals ended up in the teens, and she was able to bag a handy position early in the race. She travelled well into the straight, was last off the bridle, and got first run on those trying to close from well back. She was tying up late, though, and was all out to hold off the runner-up. John Gosden was adamant she wasn't at her best even in victory, and he sounded keen to keep her in training and bring her back next year in a bid to become the first three-time winner of this race, but he said it would be the owner-breeder's decision. In the shorter term, the Breeders' Cup could be next, and she was cut to a best price 4-5 for the Turf.
Sea Of Class, who has progressed with every start and was very impressive at York last time, ran a cracker in defeat, effectively beaten by the draw. Her jockey made the sensible decision to drop in from stall 15 but she was always going to need luck in running from the turn in. She picked up well, weaving a passage, and swept past most of her rivals, but the line came just too soon. It was a fine effort, and the indications are that she will stay in training and bid to go one better next year Racing Post Analysis It's a difference of opinion Figgis. Of course we can't know for certain that SOC would have won, she probably would have been held up of the draw had been lower so she may still have found trouble in running.The pace of the race was not fast so it was a disadvanatge to be held up. SOC was 1.5 secs( 9 lengths)behind Enable,in the false straight, at the line she lost by a shoort neck. She was finishing a lot faster than Enable who was tiring.I can easily rate her 12 lbs better than the winner based on the sectionals although I know yyou won't accept that calcualtion. On the balance of probabilititeis, she would have won but i couldn't argue that it would be beyond reasonable doubt. All speculation, of course, but that it is what we have to do every time we evaluate form. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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harry callaghan,
Here are the results of St Leger runners running in Group 1s from 2000 onwards with SPs. Camelot was the only fav (2/1). Milan was coupled with Saddler's Creek. As Saddler's was a no hoper, I would guess that Milan's individual odds would have been around 7.0 (6/1).
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The pace of the race was not fast so it was a disadvanatge to be held up
Yes I wouldn't argue with that, getting first run is always an advantage in a race run at a slower than average early pace, in as much as the one who gets first run has no real excuse if beaten. I do think there's a bit more to it than that though when putting a performance in context. For instance, while the horse getting first run has to be favoured in its winning chance there is absolutely no denying that a slow pace can compress winning margins and disguise the true superiority of the winner. An example this year would be Palace Pier in the Queen Anne. He didn't win impressively but that was due to pace, he would hammer those same runners off a good pace, in my view of course. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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With all the rain forecast for Saturday night into Sunday I have also had a decent e/w bet on Mojo Star at a boosted 55/1 with Billies.
Just hope the meeting isn't rained off.   | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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after a good few ante post duds in this i have gone for raahibah each way (5 places slys) a good bit to find but should be fresher than most and after a few dissapointing runs earlier this season won last time, 5th in this last year came from a long way back and stayed on strongly ,the likely pace of this race should suit and although the probable going may not be ideal its the same for many of those at the front of the market 20/1 each way will do for me .
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I am getting familiar with my Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe draw data, and understanding it after a year break.
I split the 47 races from 1971 to 2020 into very fast, fast, medium, and slow times Very fast (5 races):... 1st (winner) average draw (3.8); 2nd avg draw (7.6); 3rd (7.6); 4th (15.0); 5th (8.0); 6th (8.8); 7th (11.2); 8th (9.2); 9th (5.8); 10th (8.2); 11th (12.0); 12th (9.0) Fast (9 races):... 1st (winner) average draw (6.4); 2nd avg draw (5.8); 3rd (8.6); 4th (9.0); 5th (8.6); 6th (9.0); 7th (9.9); 8th (11.1); 9th (9.8); 10th (9.8); 11th (9.9); 12th (9.7) Medium (16 races):... 1st (winner) average draw (8.1); 2nd avg draw (10.7); 3rd (8.6); 4th (11.0); 5th (7.9); 6th (9.8); 7th (10.5); 8th (10.4); 9th (8.9); 10th (9.9); 11th (10.1); 12th (7.7) Slow (17 races):... 1st (winner) average draw (9.9); 2nd avg draw (8.2); 3rd (7.8); 4th (9.9); 5th (8.8); 6th (9.3); 7th (7.1); 8th (10.7); 9th (12.6); 10th (11.3); 11th (9.4); 12th (12.7) A few strange numbers: Draw 4 on very fast, fast, medium, slow going has very poor results as seen above and in the overall averages ____ 1st (winner) average draw (8.2); 2nd (8.9); 3rd (8.6); 4th (10.6); 5th (8.4); 6th (9.6); 7th (9.0) Is this randomness, bad horses drawn 4 for 47 years, or is there a reason? There is probably a reason. Looking at replays on Youtube might help discover why. Draw 14 & 15 They use two stalls machines in the Arc, 14 horse capacity each. They fill machine 1 with 14 horses and stall 2 with the others. There is a gap between the two machines, and horses drawn 14 and 15 can use that gap to make progress if the pace is slow, or the ground is slow. Winners on very fast from 14 & 15: 0 Winners on ____ fast from 14 & 15: 1 [Golden Horn; Frankie Dettori took advantage of a slow pace to move forward] Winners on __ medium from 14 & 15: 0 Winners on ____ slow from 14 & 15: 7 [14: Ivanjica ('76); Gold River ('81); Subotica ('92); Dalakhani (2003)] [15: Allez France ('74); Marienbard (2001); Treve (2013)] I notice that on slow ground most of the winners were French. Was it jockey knowledge of the stalls (?) or horses suited to soft (?). Marienbard was ridden by Frankie Dettori. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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kincsem your results are what I would expect:
On quick and good going the best place to be is near to (but not necessarily on) the rail. This is because it is the shortest way round. However on soft ground winners could come from anywhere, because the overiding factor is who can last home in those conditions. On soft going, I would expect an even spread of winning draws giving an average somewhere in the middle. In fast conditions, winning margins tend to be much shorter meaning that small advantages, such as the draw, will come into play, whereas when it is soft (as it will be on Sunday) winning margins tend to be larger and the effect of the draw is realtively small in comparison. So I don't think the effect of the draw will play much part in this year's race. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I commend you chaps on your extensive research but there comes a time when further and more meticulous research just muddies the water. You seem to enjoy the pre-race more than you do the two minutes thirty odd seconds of the actual race itself! Tarnawa appears to go very well on the predicted going, does the trip, has been prepared for the race, is two from two at the track and was only just recently beaten by the "greatest racehorse ever" to come out of Ballydoyle.
 That's all the research I need and I look forward eagerly to the action. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Didn´t AOB OFFICIALLY withdraw Love as the race favourite due to the soft/heavy ground last year? So why is she still in the race this year.
 That´s why I give huge props to Godolphin for running Adayar and Hurricane Lane. The best horses should run in the biggest races. NO BS. Also like the approach by the owners of Alenquer. Take out the bad ride in the GP of Paris and the only horses that have beaten him are Hurricane Lane and Mishriff, yet Haggas wanted to run him in the Great Voltigeur, just because he considered it a walk in the park G2 success. He´d probably not be in the Arc either. Just a random observation. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Yes, Love is a strange one on this going. If she does win, people who backed her ante post last year will be fuming.
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Still to finalise my final plans but in re-calibrating because of the likely very soft even heavy ground tomorrow I realise that there is a case to be made for ....?
Which horse has close-up 10f form behind St Marks Basilica, the top-rated turf horse this year? And has winning form at Longchamp on heavy ground? And has been trained with the Arc its as its target all year? And has a pedigree which indicates that it will be better when it steps up to 12f for the first time? Tarnawa, right. Wrong. The horse is Sealiway available at 48.0 on BF. Yes it has to improve 10 lbs but that isn't impossible. I've had EW money on it so I pass it on. Not expecting it to win but I've added it to my investments. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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https://irbracing.com/french-ground-conditions/ give VERY SOFT
https://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html give Good to soft - Good in places Windfinder give about 20mm/3 hours at around 10am Sunday | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Considering not much pace in the first it's impossible to be worse than regular soft ground at the absolute worst, certainly nothing like heavy at the moment.
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