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2021 arc longchamp
2021 arc longchamp
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How many previous Arcs have been run on truly "Heavy" going and who were the winners please?
"Sandown" should be able to tell us after all he thinks he knows everything.  |
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All participants are bright green thanks to a betting opportunity that presented itself. Broome was purchased by a Japanese owner alongside the Coolmore lads as a three year old with a target to run in the 2019 Arc. For whatever reason he did not participate but came back to form in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winning in a fast time this year and I assumed his target would be the Arc. When looking at Oddschecker every bookmaker was 50-1 but on Betfair it was a massive price and I risked a few quid which I managed to obtain all in 336-1. Subsequently I have been able to lay on average 84-1 regaining £4 for every £1 invested.
Whether he can win is unlikely on all known form but the profit objective has been served. Have used some of the bright green money to back Hurricane Lane,Sealiway backed at 75 and layed 65 and will back the latter and Broome in the five place market. |
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LoyalHoncho
Sorry Kincsem but I'm not grasping the point of your last posy. Are you advocating interest in the German horse or ruling it out? Thanks. I was going to bet Euro 200 win at 110 on Torquator Tasso. He is very unlikely to win, but Longchamp heavy ground is very, very tiring. My motto "when I win I want to get paid" (paid big, no even money bets for me). |
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And good luck to you Feltfair. It takes skill and alacrity to ensure a profit at this game and you have my admiration.
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Ok - thanks, and I agree with you on the betting strategy. g/l.
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I can only gleam from you penzance and kinscem that my analysis doesn’t agree with your opinions on the race.
So let’s not beat around the bush , what have you both backed, I like it honest me |
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Adayar's got just as much chance of acting on the going
as any horse today.Won the Derby on G/S & when he won his maiden,it was Sft.He won that by 9L. GL ALL |
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Adayar is the best horse in this and should win
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It’s fair penzance he’s a brilliant horse. I’ve bet him but he just saves my book as I’m not confident on him in this going plus I haven’t got chrono as far behind him as the betting suggests hence I’ve backed the mare. Intriguing race tbh and a great opinions race
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Kincsem, this sort of thing is getting more common with lots of different companies nowadays. I despair of the way things are going. I have had all kinds of trouble trying to make deposits or bill payments with Halifax this year. Previously I had no problems. Earlier this year I tried to deposit £200 with Purple Exchange (just to keep betting on a Sunday afternoon) and Halifax declined the deposit. I had to ring them up and it took ages to get through and I missed my bet. Contacted Purple Exchange and they were sympathetic, but couldn't do anything about it. I imagine the same will happen if I try to deposit on Betfair, which may have to happen if Hurricane Lane wins this afternoon.
There are some companies with excellent customer service but they are in a dwindling minority. |
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Can one bet into the PMU here or somewhere else online?
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Slowest first from my Arc draw file (Longchamp only) 1971 to 2020
1976 2m 39.40s Ivanjica odds 7.1 2020 2m 39.30s Sottsass odds 7.3 1984 2m 39.10s Sagace odds 2.9 1992 2m 39.00s Subotica odds 8.8 1999 2m 38.50s Montjeu odds 1.5 1993 2m 37.90s Urban Sea odds 37.0 (2nd White Muzzle odds 54) 2012 2m 37.68s Solemia odds 33 (Betfair 75) 1982 2m 37.00s Akiyda odds 10.75 1974 2m 36.90s Allez France odds 0.5 (2nd Comtesse De Loir 53) 2001 2m 36.10s Sakhee odds 2.2 1978 2m 36.10s Alleged odds 1.4 The race was run in much slower times in earlier decades 1924 2m 40.98 Massine odds 1.15 1933 2m 41.76 Crapom odds 2.2 1934 2m 41.82 Brantome odds 1.1 1935 2m 42.64 Samos odds 19.0 1929 2m 42.94 Ortello ossa 13.0 1960 2m 43.96 Puissant Chef odds 14.0 1932 2m 44.66 Motrico odds 3.8 1930 2m 44.98 Motrico odds 8.3 |
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I keep reading how competitive this race is, and I agree it looks a good renewal, but, still, when it all boils down I only see one horse, Adayar, who has shown the ability to put up a very good winning performance and another, Hurricane Lane, with the ability to take an average Arc. The rest, without further improvement, haven't shown enough to win anything but a poor Arc. A few years ago Found's chance was knocked after her Irish Champion Stakes second, but I had that a massive 9lbs faster than anything Tarnawa has ever put up, and have been very surprised at the market confidence for her in days leading up to the race.
If Adayar wasn't a runner I wouldn't be having a bet in the race, as even though HL has shown the ability I wouldn't touch a horse at these odds after that kind of prep. The race is simple for me, I think Adayar is more than good enough and I don't see any others likely to improve past him. The two unknowns are how his form will hold up since July, but there's no way of knowing that until he actually runs. The other is heavy ground, but the way I look at it is I would kick myself more for not backing him on the ground and he won, than if I back him and he doesn't act on it. Just to add to the trend posts on here, since 2000 I have had four Derby winners going into the Arc with a speed figure equal to Adayar, or slightly higher. Sinndar, Workforce and Golden Horn won, only Authorized was beaten. If I extend the analysis to others who recorded similar figures outside the Derby but over at least 10f, that brings in Sea The Stars. If I extend it to fillies including their allowance, that brings in Enable. So only six qualifiers since 2000, five won and one beaten. The one beaten wasn't beaten because he wasn't good enough, he just didn't run anywhere near form on the day. This is a very small sample size, maybe the next four qualifiers will be beaten, but evens would still be a great return. For me, if Adayar runs his race he wins and even allowing for the two unknowns he's a standout bet. |
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LoyalH
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Can we bet into the PMU on here or anywhere else online?
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harry callaghan
I can only gleam from you penzance and kinscem that my analysis doesn’t agree with your opinions on the race. So let’s not beat around the bush , what have you both backed, I like it honest me If you read back a few posts you can see that I transferred Euro 200 from KBC Bank online to Betfair yesterday. It appears on my KNC Bank online statement today. There is nothing in my Betfair account yet. I contacted Betfair customer services. The will not act (put the money in my account) as they have not reconciled all the attempted deposits with the money received. They tell me they will do the reconciliation at close of business today. No funds, therefore no bet. Hurricane Lane is my opinion of the most likely winner. But betting is different from picking winners. My Euro 200 was going to go 100% on a win bet on Torquator Tasso because I think he is about a 12/1 chance. He won the Grosser Preis von Baden (and a close 3rd to Barney Roy), a race won by Carroll House*; Pilsudski; Borgia; Marienbard*; Danedream* (twice); Novellist (Arc fav, injured, withdrawn, Treve won) [*Arc winners] |
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if you read the fred,I'm on Adayar A/P.
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Judging by the first two times the ground looks what I'd call soft, not heavy. It's early days but I have it pencilled in as very similar to the year Workforce won. Adayar won his maiden on soft ground, and while there's obviously a big difference in beating inferior horses on unsuitable ground than proving they act on it in a Gp1, you don't often see a horse go away to win by 9 lengths unless the ground was ok for it. He then won the Derby on ground with plenty of give and going into the KG, even though I didn't agree, some people were expressing the view the ground would be too fast for him. I reckon this ground shouldn't be a problem for him and, aside from a slow pace and/or trouble in running, I think he just needs to retain his early season ability.
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"Sandown" should be able to tell us after all he thinks he knows everything. Laugh
That sort of remark is why I don't bother much with the forum these days . Too many people like LoyalH . If he /she seriously wants to be informed then that's not the way to go about it. Schoolboyish. |
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"Sandown" should be able to tell us after all he thinks he knows everything. Laugh
That sort of remark is why I don't bother much with the forum these days . Too many people like LoyalH . If he /she seriously wants to be informed then that's not the way to go about it. Schoolboyish. |
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"Sandown" should be able to tell us after all he thinks he knows everything. Laugh
That sort of remark is why I don't bother much with the forum these days . Too many people like LoyalH . If he /she seriously wants to be informed then that's not the way to go about it. Schoolboyish. |
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Tarnawa drifting like the Kon-Tiki
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Chrono been backed
as if its going to  |
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will it be one of the front five with the credentials or a 'rag'?..could well be the latter
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 OH, FOR **** SAKE  |
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w played
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 I wanted to have Euro 200 on the nag at 100+ |
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I give up
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kincsem • October 3, 2021 1:18 PM BST
LoyalHoncho Sorry Kincsem but I'm not grasping the point of your last posy. Are you advocating interest in the German horse or ruling it out? Thanks. I was going to bet Euro 200 win at 110 on Torquator Tasso. He is very unlikely to win, but Longchamp heavy ground is very, very tiring. My motto "when I win I want to get paid" (paid big, no even money bets for me). 140. SP. Unreal shout. |
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I backed Solemia in 2018 Euro 182 at 75s, but **** KBC Bank and Betfair. This would have been nice.
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Torquator Tasso because I think he is about a 12/1 chance
Brilliant call Kincsem, well done. |
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Well played I know a few fancied him well done to you
Not sure what Murphy was doing early in that race as took the horse to the softer going but she didn’t get home and the ride on her and adayar was odd as neither are prominent racers |
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Yeah well played kinscem
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kinscem
wd GL ,lovely. |
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Kingscem, were there no other outlets for you? That is an absolute killer.
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had a saver @135 and 100 thank fk these 'unconsidered' rags are so egregiously overpriced on here
won cosily come the finish thought the Hurricane was going to do me up like a kipper would the Belgian boyo be regretting his ride? Kincsem..failing to plan is planning to fail feel 4 u,dude but u should've made sure ur funds were deposited in time |
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nothing wrong with the ride on Adayar,he were'nt
good enough today. |
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i put the winner up with raahibaah on the horses forum with raahiba ,didnt have as much on as i d have liked but that will do !
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