Quite surprised by the comments from some especially EIT… TT had G1 form on Heavy last October and was only nabbed on the line after going for home too soon. He was always going to better with cut in the ground judged on his page, and the form was there with last years second and two G1 winners from his runs in Germany this year. He also was one of only three to tick the strict trend patterns (course form letting him down only):

Aged 3 or 4 - 11 of the last twelve winners
11 of the last 12 winners had won a G1 previously
6 of the last 12 winners had a previous course win
10 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 previous career runs
11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous starts that season
12/12 winners had won over 12f previously

Strict use of the above leaves:

Hurricane Lane
Snowfall (no course win but has run 2nd)
Torquator Tasso (no course run)


I tipped the 1st, 3rd and 5th on Twitter pre race so I’m not after timing. Just surprised more so

Some post race reflections

1. The heavy going once again played a significant role and interfered with calculations based on form on non-heavy ground. Lesson: filter through going first when heavy. Lesson. Don't ignore German horses when going gets heavy.


2. Betting against 5 yr olds record upheld again but only just with Tarnawa demonstrating what a great trainer Weld is.

3. Leger winners poor record in Arc upheld again (but as with Tarnawa and 5yr records), only just, showing that stats based approaches may be ok for background but not neccesarily for individual races.

4. On personal performance, laying Tarnawa at 4.0 as being wrong favourite and backing back at 8..0 helped for a good book but a close run thing that. Backing those I considered value gave me the winner plus 3rd,4th,5th, 6th as winners if they has won but Tarnawa would have still have been a loser so I dodged a bullet there.

5. Backing big priced value each way gave me great place value on Sealiway  at 50.1 and Entsscheiden at 210.0 (paid 35.0 for a place). Lesson. back at big prices even if not considered to be big chances to win.
6. The draw was key in the 5f Abbaye which I ignored so took a heavy loss there.

7.. Never thought Space Blues would go on the ground  so laid it but got lucky with the Japanese horse (see above) so damage limited.

8. Small profit on the day for a lot of effort but  that's racing. Here's to the 2022 Arc . Enjoyed the thread and thanks to all especially to kincem, marksman, figgis,penzance and others for their positive contributions which as ever makes for a good learning experience. 40 years plus of betting on the race and  still there is much to learn. Great craiq. Lesson: You can never know enough.

here we go again - Sandown giving us all lessons. 
You have to laugh at the haughtiness of the fellow.

The right hand column is the percentage that placed in the first 3.

Twitter is full of idiots no doubt, but I stopped posting here because you get the types of reply such as yours Honcho so the out reading the detail and point of my comment.

Marksman

A useful analysis. Thank you. One thought on looking at it, is that the combined record for ALL the sprint races is 17 wins from 280 runs (6.1%) which  looks significant given that overall figure for all horses/all races is 10% . All those races giving 20% plus likely be significant too.

My only thought at this stage is that the competitiveness of the subsequent races could be a partial factor (eg SL to Arc) as well as the demanding nature of the race won. Off the top of my head I reckon that Arc winners that follow on may have a below average win record. I do remember sometime ago seeing the poor subsequent record of Grand National winners ,  a demanding race which takes a long time to recover from.

Back to the sprinters, and their below expected subsequent win record, I wonder whether the part played by luck in-running is a factor? Put another way, the difference in ability between sprinters is less, there are more of them within the top ability range, and draw/going bias , all combine to influence the results. Result: Anything can win.

I find the sprints really difficult.  Horses seem to go from class 2 handicaps to winning Group 1s in a short space of time.  Also the big fields could be a factor in low win and place percentages.  I will do further research, but I might start another thread dedicated to statistics for the type of races that we have antepost markets for.

Besides not getting a Euro 200 bet on the Arc on Sunday by KBC debit card (they block all gambling), or by KBC Bank online transfer made on Saturday 3rd October the Euro 200 I transferred by online bank is not on my Betfair account, today Thursday 7th at 13:00.

Betfair: "Unfortunately that is how it has to be done, as it left the bank account but did not enter your betfair account."
Me: Why did it not enter my Betfair account?  I sent it using your menu driven Deposit page, Alternative Methods, Bank Transfer, select country Ireland - EUR - Barclays Bank PLC

Betfair: ..."No, it has not gone through, that is why we asked you contact your bank to reclaim it."
Me: ........ Then is there an error in the operation of you bank transfer page for payment of Euro by Irish customers to Barclays Bank, Hatch Street, Dublin?  If that page is not working you should remove the page, or fix it.
Betfair: .... "I can assure you that that page is working just fine. Can you please have a talk with your bank account please as they could reclaim the money?"
Me: .........Thank you for the assurance that the page is working "just fine".  It did not work for me, so you will understand if I doubt your claim.
Betfair: .... "I'm sorry Sean but I have contacted the payments team and they have asked me to tell you that you would need to contact your bank to reclaim it."
Me:.......... I will do that, as that is the only option for me.  I am sure you mean the "deposits team".

Kafkaesque?

Sandown you had a hunch that Arc winners turning out soon would have a poor win record.  The following table shows horses reappearing within 28 days of running in a French Group 1 on the flat, in another G1.

Race	Runs	Wins	% Wins	2nd	3rd	% Places
Prix Ganay	43	11	(25.58%)	11	5	(62.79%)
Poule d'Essai des Pouliches	50	7	(14.0%)	4	8	(38.0%)
Poule d'Essai des Poulains	72	9	(12.5%)	10.5	8	(38.19%)
Prix Saint-Alary	73	4	(5.48%)	4	8	(21.92%)
Prix d'Ispahan	29	6	(20.69%)	1	2	(31.03%)
Prix du Jockey Club	40	7	(17.5%)	4	4	(37.5%)
Prix de Diane	16	1	(6.25%)	3	2	(37.5%)
Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud	23	4	(17.39%)	3	4	(47.83%)
Grand Prix de Paris	3	0	(0.0%)	2	0	(66.67%)
Prix Jean Prat	25	3	(12.0%)	4	6	(52.0%)
Prix Rothschild	25	2	(8.0%)	7	4	(52.0%)
Prix Maurice de Gheest	63	6	(9.52%)	7	4	(26.98%)
Prix Jacques Le Marois	60	8	(13.33%)	12	10	(50.0%)
Prix Morny	9	1	(11.11%)	0	4	(55.56%)
Prix Jean Romanet	9	1	(11.11%)	1	1	(33.33%)
Prix du Moulin de Longchamp	45	3	(6.67%)	6	6	(33.33%)
Prix Vermeille	82	11	(13.41%)	11	5	(32.93%)
Prix de Royallieu	7	1	(14.29%)	1	1	(42.86%)
Prix du Cadran	66	8	(12.12%)	8	8	(36.36%)
Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp	9	0	(0.0%)	1	0	(11.11%)
Prix Marcel Boussac	8	1	(12.5%)	0	2	(37.5%)
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère	35	5	(14.29%)	5	6	(45.71%)
Prix de la Forêt	24	2	(8.33%)	2	5	(37.5%)
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	64	12.5	(19.53%)	16	9	(58.59%)
Prix de l'Opéra	42	2	(4.76%)	7	3	(28.57%)
Prix Royal-Oak	0	0	(-)	0	0        (-)
Critérium International	2	0	(0.0%)	0	0	(0.0%)
Critérium de Saint-Cloud	0	0	(-)	0	0	(-)

The Arc runners did quite well, which surprised me.

Marksman

Thanks again for the stats. It surprised me to see the Arc results as I expected a below average performance. The Abbaye fits with the UK sprint figures but the Alary and l'Opera figures both over 10f are below average but not sure why. And why is the Ganay stat so good?

The Irish figures again confirm the sprint below average  (Fling Five) which is the most likely significant finding in all 3 countries and the only conclusion that I might most confidently draw, given the low sample sizes.

It seems the money has been lost in transit, and Betfair are not admitting it reach them despite your bank indicated it had left their account and headed for Betfair. The $64k question is who's telling the truth, and who's telling porkies?

Bank or bookie? Who'd you trust?

My KBC Bank branch that sent the money and Barclays Bank where they money was sent are both in Dublin only 1.6 kms apart (1.0 miles).

I checked my KBC Bank online account today.
The Euro 200 not returned to my KBC Bank account.
Neither is the Euro 200 in my Betfair account.
The Euro 200 is missing two weeks+.

I see that you have checked your online account.  Sorry, I should have noticed that.

The long boring saga continues of the Euro 200 that left my KBC Bank online account in Dublin on 2nd October (possibly the 3rd or 4th) on it one mile journey to Barclays Bank in Dublin.
This morning, 9th November, I checked my KBC Bank online statement and the Euro 200 has not returned from Betfair (Barclays Bank Euro account).
This morning, 9th November, I phoned KBC Bank customer services to ask them about progress.  They said that on 7th October they put in the recall of the Euro 200 (I knew that on 7th October).
They will check and "get back to you".
Whatever happened to banks that could check when you phoned and tell you what happened?

As far as I know there is no gambling ombudsman in Ireland.  One is promised "before the end of the year"
KBC Bank phone me at 15: 30 today, 10th November (a few minutes ago.
Barclays Bank refused to return the Euro 200 to KBC bank.
I must now contact Betfair again, exactly the position I was in five weeks ago.

Amazing I have to wait up to 15 minutes before they respond.