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2021 arc longchamp
2021 arc longchamp
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kincem
The RP going allowance difference was 0.48 secs per slower for the Friday which accounts for 5.76 secs on top of which they ran 21 yards further in the Oaks (another 1 sec approx) plus maybe the same for the run across to the stands side, totalling in all for 7.76 secs which takes it to 2 secs in favour of the Oaks time. Roughly speaking. |
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0.48secs per furlong I should have said
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that can't be right - over that distance horses take 12 seconds to run a furlong - no way did one day of drying allow for the ground to be half a second faster per furlong
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and presumably the drift across the track was to find faster ground
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I have the ground drying out approximately .40 spf from Friday to Saturday. So not too far from the RP allowance but enough to mean that Snowfall ran 11lbs slower than Adayar. Looking at the performances Snowfall has put up since I'd say that's about right. As even though we know horses aren't machines, etc, given the easy manner Snowfall won the Oaks I see no reason why she shouldn't have replicated it at least once since. She just isn't the superstar she looked to some at the time.
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Fresh ground is saved on the inside for the Saturday, which is why the yardage is greater for the Oaks, but it also adds to the ground on the Saturday riding faster, as it has done for years. Same with the Arc ground at Longchamp.
I can't agree with you Figgis that the subsequent performances by Snowfall prove that she was over-rated in the Oaks, not just by me I should add. It is true however that she has dropped bellow that level subsequently (not at the Curragh) whilst Adayar (and Hurricane Lane) have improved. She may not now turn out to be the horse with further potential to rate higher but I have seen many horses in the past who have eventually done so after some disappointing runs following the initial very good performance.All is not lost with her just yet although as I have said on the WFA thread, she may not now be at her best for the Arc. If she is kept in training we might yet see her deliver on the promise shown at Epsom for greater things. |
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Talking about Adayar, this week we may find out the state of play with him because most trainers will give a serious gallop this week to get their horses primed for Arc day. Not having had the benefit of the traditional Arc trials day to sharpen up the horse for the Arc 3 weeks later, this weeks gallop will be crucial for him, even if he has recivered from his injury.
Hurricane Run, on the other hand, needs to prove that he has fully recovered from the St Leger win where some feel that he looked as though he was tiring at the end, although I have to say that the figures for his last 2 furlongs don't really support that view, 11.85,12.88(24.73). The penultimate final was fast at 11.85 and for the final furlong he had the measure of the second and was eased slightly before the post. |
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Hurricane LANE. (I had a v.good win on H.RUN so his name is fixed in my memory[
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It is true however that she has dropped bellow that level subsequently
It is also true that anyone comparing the Oaks with the Coronation Cup as a proper Gp1 race means Al Aasy also has dropped well below that level since. As I said at the time the CC was no better than Gp3 level this year. No shame in overrating a race, we all do it, but when more than one big race on a card fails to live up to previous ratings I think it's time to accept the original thinking was a mistake. |
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I personally think this is pretty open. There is time for the going to get very soft again, but it does seem likely to just be soft.
This will not be a major issue for the 3 at the head of the market. Nor will Rabihah. Chrono may not like it. Adayar should probably be favourite on form. His overall form this year looks very strong indeed and he will be hard to beat. But I was taken by Tarnawa’s last run and indeed her preparation. She has been trained for this all season and a mad dash over the last half mile of the Irish Champion was unlikely to suite a filly with her stamina. Matching speed with SMB was pretty decent form and she may be still even better than she has shown so far. You could almost a career best. 3/1 is a skinny price and I would expect better odds yet. I hope she wins for her great trainer. If she gets a clear run and the usually necessary luck in running etc she is surely going to be a big danger to them all. |
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Regards Snowfall, I do think that AOB’s horses have not necessarily been as fit, well and healthy as usual this year. Her last run was 8lbs below her best.
Big chance though that she will not have been spot on for the trial she disappointed in, and it would not be any surprise to me if she went close in the Arc. Many many times I have seen Aiden’s horses lose a trial before really turning up on the day that matters. Remember Found? |
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Tarnawa's been well placed by Weld but I don't see her as being good enough to win this race - and 5yos have a very poor record. Equally Snowfall has been getting less impressive with each race and the trainer's record in the Arc with 3yos is lamentable. Hurricane Lane may well have left his best at Doncaster.
My only concern w.ith Adayar is the injury - I'm quite happy for him not to have a prep race but I'd rather that hadn't been the reason. But still he's the one to beat for me. But if there's no pace like last year it's open to anyone |
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Figgis. Again, I reiterate that my rating for Snowfall is linked to the rating for Blue Cup who also raced up the stand side and not to Piledriver & Al Aasy. Blue Cup had an OR of 92 and was raised to 103 and then 108. My projected rating was 101.I have no reason to believe that I over-rated Snowfall.
What I will say is that looking back I may have under-rated Adayer a bit on the day and so that brings them close together but still nthing like your view of the difference. For me, Epsom has always been difficult to rate what with rail alignments, different start points on a tricky track with variable allowances, so I'm not losing any sleep over this difference of opinion. When it comes to what really matters, which is price and staking, I'm not too bothered about who may be more right or not. In any event, times are not the major factor these days in my evaluations. |
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Fair enough. Looking back at Topspeed's winning figures that day, and including Al Aasy as Pyledriver hasn't been out since, only Rhoscolyn has matched or improved on its rating. Not knocking Topspeed, once in print those figures remain, but I bet he'd like the luxury that we have of revising some of them later
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SMB is a big price on betfair for buttons, definitely has a chance of improving on its top speed figures if it can stay the 12f, just noticed adayar has 118 TS
 one of the horses i think has a good chance of improving and has 128 RPR, hurricane lane maintained his 114 TS in the st leger and now back over 12fpossible it could improve its TS figure in the arc, had a couple more races, even though looks tough and uncomplicated, snowfall still strong in the market, as most on here, agree adayar has the right credentials. goodluck all |
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I see In Swoop is still in the antepost market.
 He is injured, and retired.The Betfair market is all Irish and English horses. Just an opinion, but don't the French keep a few good ones for this. Until the field, and the draw, and the going is known, no bet. |
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gb & ire vs french is 18-12 for french in the last 30 years , 10-10 in the last twenty years , 5-5 in the last ten years . that's surprising to me as I've felt gb & ire have had the better horses overall for quite a while . so kinscem is defo right to wait to see what the French offer up . I remember having a nice win on rail link , the thought gb & ire is way ahead , maybe so in the context of the season , but , isn't so in the crown jewel !
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The state of French racing this year, with sprinter Suesa being the one exception, has been absolutely dire, not much better than German racing.
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yea i know , but , i was just making the point as it seems we are premier and the french are div 1 , but , the results in the race tell otherwise
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Treve, undoubtedly an outstanding winner, particularly her first win. I think their other recent winners have been pretty moderate by Gp1 standards. I suppose in ordinary years, or when the better horses don't fire, they have as good a chance as any, probably even more so when they have weight of numbers. This year, however, their runners don't even look as good as ordinary.
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The French do well at the Arc because that's the only race that matters to them - their horses are aimed at that. O'Brien farms the European classics in the Spring but his record in the Arc with 3yos is dire - one third place I believe? Maybe he can only get his good 3yos to peak once?
This year they don't seem even to have a Sotsass or Waldgeist i.e. a horse seemingly inferior to the GB and IRE horses but peaking at the right time - Mare Australis looked like a typical French Arc-type but got injured. |
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If something like Rabihaah finishes in front of Adayar/Hurricane Lane/Snowfall/Tarnawa you'd really feel it's time to give up betting
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I've got 2 x Granstand tickets for Arc day. Face value 65e and can't go this year, rescheduled from last year. They are e-tickets and I would see for £25 each if anyone is interested ?
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Hurricane Lane, Adayer, Snowfall all confirmed runners on Sunday with the Godolphin pair having worked well and AOB giving a buulish update on the filly.
So, can anyone explain to me why they think that Tarnawa is the right favourite. The plus point is that Dermot Weld trains and is bullish but here are my concerns. Her position in the market is based primarily on her run behind St Marks Basilica which was run like a French race as a slow pace until the straight then they sprinted making the form unreliable from an assessment angle. She has won at 12f but her RPR's over the trip are 7lbs behind her 10f form.She is a 5yr old and the win chances for that age are much worse than for 3yr old. One final point. I know that the Dosage system is somewhat tarnished these days but I still look at the figures as ignoring them is worse than treating them as gospel. The fact is that her dosage figures suggest she does not have the ideal 12f profile. Her highest TS rating is 91 in 16 races (excluding her BC win). The top fillies recently to have won the race such as Zarkava,Enable,Treve and all had higher ratings going into the race. Their BF winning SP's were (3.2,)(2.2,2.1)(15.2,5.5). Tarnawa is currently 3.7 . Her PB is below that of the next 3 in the market. Go figure. |
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Sandown I often ask this question to people that say what you have just said.
So what price do you make tarnawa? |
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I’m not criticising your analysis by the way, however what price have do you make her?
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What price do you make her? Apologies
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harry c
Adayar 2.8 Hurricane Lane 7.1 Tarnawa 7.1 Snowfall 9.8 I should stress harry, that I see pricing up as the most important assessment skill, and it is not fixed figure. My odds change by the day and during the day and with market changes. These prices are of close of play today. Backing the most likely winner is not necessarily what I play but in this case it will be. I will also play HL on the day.I will be against Tarnawa. |
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One other point, apart from SMB, who beat her, what elite colt has she actually beaten in her G1's. Nothing of the calibre of Alaydar or HL. Even in her BC win, it was a 5yr old mare (Magical 15/8 fav) that she beat. 4.2 on BF is a poor price (shorter with BM's 3.5 best)
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Thanks for backing up your argument Sandown I respect it.
I've found this a difficult race to price up. I'm shorter on adayar tbh. However I've got 2 market's on who I believe will run well. The horse I'm struggling most with is hurricane Lane as I'm in the camp that said he didn't like epsom and his other runs back this up. He is the one horse I've not got a figure I'm happy with. Much to ponder the next few days for me tbh |
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Ability wise I would agree with pricing Hurricane Lane ahead of Tarnawa on these wfa terms, but in regards to which is more likely to run to form I would give Tarnawa the edge, therefore would make her a bit shorter than him. Good mare that she is, personally I don't think she's any better than last year, or at least she hasn't proved she is. However, she goes here after a race that was a bit of a farce, which I wouldn't expect to take much out of her. HL is here only 3 weeks after a race that saw him run close to peak in what looked quite a taxing effort. He might turn out to be more robust than most but as a percentage call I think it's odds against him even running to peak form.
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Just on Tarnawa and her figures as I believe she needs to be dissected after much argument against the mare and her being able to run fast.
As much as I get why people are against the 5 year old mare, it has to be questioned though her actual opportunities to actually run fast, she has copped so many races where the opportunity hasn’t been possible, however is this such a bad thing. Looking at her opportunities as she was clearly a backward 3 year old. Let’s look at last years races, she was trained for the prix vermeile and breeders cup turf The vermeille was steadily run early before they picked the pace up from the 6 furlong marker, she showed a sharp turn of foot and that is her key asset. The breeders cup she copped a dawdling pace but picked up quickly once again showing a decent turn of pace. Leopardsown was still a good run against 2 decent horses and she was bullied in the race, still a good effort for me with this race in mind. I can see why she is being knocked at the odds, I however am not keen to get her here like others, as I do believe a big run is likely, ok you can argue she hasn’t got a big figure in the book, however it isn’t proven that she is just a bully because she hasn’t had the opportunity to run big.. I respect her myself, I will say I do believe she wouldn’t want rain myself, she has shown a liking for decent going so a lot of rain would concern me with her. On decent going I’d make her a nap to be in the 3 myself so talk of 6/1 would be generous for me. She is solid It’s an open race to a point and adayars problems has to come into pricing the race properly, ok he could be even money had he run in the niel but he didn’t so that has to be factored into the odds you take imo |
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market suspended at 6 day stage.
All forfeit stages and supplementary entry stages listed at the bottom of the following page: https://www.france-galop.com/en/racing/detail/2021/P/QTk2a3hKNXNVTjFMbVJCWkplSnU4dz |
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says 14 left in with no Snowfall or Adayar - which can't be right
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Thanks.
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Adayar and snowfall will be added at the supplementary stage. Which is tomorrow.
I remember the same thing happened with Zarkava in 2008. |
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thanks. they are both in the entries prior to today so why do they need supplementing?
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Adayar definitely needs supplementing is not officially entered
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● ADAYAR needs to be supplemented
● CONTRAIL needs to be supplemented ● EFFORIA needs to be supplemented ● SNOWFALL needs to be supplemented |
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Arc field: first forfeit stage
Torquator Tasso (GER) Deep Bond (JPN) Broome (IRE) Tarnawa (IRE) Love (IRE) Raabihah (FR) Chrono Genesis (JPN) Mojo Star (GB) Baby Rider (FR) Hurricane Lane (GB) Sealiway (FR) Alenquer (GB) Bubble Gift (FR) Teona (GB) To be supplemented on Wednesday Adayar (GB) Snowfall (IRE) |