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National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
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Antipost
MPCJH Maze Runner 0.5pt ew @ 20/1 (Ski) NRNB |
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^ That should be 0.5pt win
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That's a lot of bets noc
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Had my vaccine at 6-30 pm last night.
Determined to go out with a bang just in case I was being micro-chipped /finnished off  Thats my half hearted excuse ..... too many bets is fair. Many years ago I stumbled across a radio programme,interviewing a professional punter.There was the usual stuff about Staking and of course Discipline,one thing he said has stuck with me to this day. "Inside every successful Punter,there is a Mug trying to get out" I still have to work at it,like many,days like yesterday are a gentle reminder.I,m not saying I enjoy them,they do come with the territory,learning from them is the key. Onwards to our beloved Festival,looks a minefield from this end  |
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1420 Sedgefield - Rock On Fruity 1pt Win 10’s (B365)
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B/F +36.44 IP 17.2
Midnight Maestro -1 Rock On Fruity -1 Weather Front -0.8 Chidswell -1 Faivoir -1 Solo -1.4 Gold Present -0.6 Milliner -1 Dalton Highway -1 Neverushacon -1 Dalton Highway -1.8 Shady Operator -0.3 Frodon -0.6 Solo -0.9 Solo -0.5 Sizing Codelco +2.8 Umbrigado +3.75 C/F +29.09 IP 21.3 |
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Has anyone looked at the Surpeme at all? Keen to take on the fav, but struggling to come up with anything meaningful other than a 66/1 shot! Any views on the opposition to the fav would be Appreciated.
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After AI's last win in Feb I think the majority of people thought he was there for the taking at 7/4, myself included. But real strong opposition has really materialised imo. Soaring Glory was impressive LTO but that was off 133. Metier has hacked up on soft ground everywhere but has beaten nothing of note. Also worth bearing in mind the ground last time out for AI was soft/heavy...meaning it was drying out. Mullins said it was very sticky that he'd not seen before at the track so AI probably better than he looked. Nice fresh ground on the first day. Don't think i'd lay him at close to 2/1 tbh.
With no owners being allowed on track I suspect all the social runners won't be in the race which could make it easier and a smaller field. |
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*failed to materialise
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+11/47 2 IP
-2 Deise Aba +5 Bristol DM -2 Farouk D -2 Appreciate IT Ballymore 14/1   +.75 Whatmore -2 McFab -3 Black Op -2 Thyme Wht -2 Dr Dex -2 Eldorado A -2 Santini -2 Chris Dream -3 Windosr Av -2 Fiddlerroof +11 Colreevy -3 Santini +4 Appreciate IT -1 Rouge Vif -1 Aspire T +2.75 Sharjah -2 Shang Tang -2 Imp Aura -1 Mount Mews -3 Santini IP 11/1 GC +1.5 Mr Harp -1 Kepage -2 Politologue -2 Windsor Av -3 Musical Slav -3 Tritoni 12/1 IP Triumph  -2 Darver Star -3 Min -2 Carrib Boy +1.2 Fakira +4.5 Quilixios -2 Irascible -2 Myth Buster -2 Fan d Blues -1 Brooklyn G -2 Minella Indo -1 Delta W -3 Barbados Buck 14/1 IP Bartlett -1 Melon 11/1 IP Ryanair -3 Mister Fisger 14/1 IP Ryanair -2.5 Jerrysback -1 Yalltari -3 Clan DO -3 Bravemansgame 9/2 IP Ballymore +16 Soaring Glory -2 BewareTBear IP GN -27.15 18 IP |
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Yes, its kind of where I am sint. Whilst impressive Metier form is poor, that's not his fault but no real confidence in him, Soaring Glory I can see but perhaps just a handicapper? AI has beaten everything else in Ireland. Struggling for opposition and I love taking on a 7yo in this race.
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Antipost
Supreme For Pleasure 0.5pt ew @ 66/1 (B3.6.5) NRNB |
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He came here with a similar profile last season GI.
Two years older than some of these,does the gap close as the younger ones develop? On a line through the Skelton horse,your lad does not look out of place. 28 entries Initially,still 9 in there for Mullins,obviously very confident. 5 day decs always interesting,that would be my starting point,look within for value. Always the "without market" if we think he,s a penalty kick ..... Early days. |
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He'll be hard to beat noc for sure and I can see him going odds on come the off. Time will tell, but it does not look that strong a renewal this year hence me taking a punt on this one. The Skelton one came at him up the hill when they met but FP picked up again after wandering all over the shop, he's a bit of a nutter. Thought he ran well, giving weight to plenty, before fading in the Betfair. That was his first run for a while and should bring him on I fancy. Might be miles off with this one, who knows.
Message on its way. |
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https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/generic-feature/dan-barber-the-cheltenham-festival-favourite-i-want-to-oppose-832021
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Someone wanting him beat then, Interesting. No so sure the ground will affect his performance, Jeremy's like good ground I think.
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First race of the meeting too. Will be plenty of cut.
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Marsh Chase - Chantry House 1.5pt ew 10/1, 3.65
Pertemps - Imperial Alcazar 2pt win 6/1, 3.65 |
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2-40 exeter
Run To Milan 0.5pt 3-20 newc Bafana Blue 0.5pt |
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wp noc
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Triumph Hdl
Haut En Couleurs 1pt @ 18/1 BOG NRNB B E T 3 6 5 |
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Just looking at the Arkle. It's shaping up like a doorty each-way race. Could be worth exploiting the
NRNB BOG on that one. |
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Come on Pete ..... That Arkle is a two horse race.
Just need to know who follows "The Guiness" home |
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Gold Cup
Champ 0.5pts @ 5/1 NRNB BOG B e t 3 6 5 |
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They said the same about "Polly" last year
Evening GI Had a look at the Pertemps yet ? |
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Just a cursory glance noc
gl Pete |
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Imperial Cup (Sandown, Sat 13th Mar)
Natural History - 1.5 pts e/w 3/1 (1/5 odds, 5 places, Paddies) |
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gl plat
Antipost MPCJH Mill Green 0.5pt win @ 33/1 (B3.6.5) NRNB |
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1555 Gowran Park - Pont Aven 1pt Win 8’s (B365)
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B/F - 10pts
Saturday 2.25 Sandown ( Imperial Cup). Miranda 1pt win 10/1. b 3 6 5 (BOG) |
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3.55 Gowran Park. The Chapel Field 1pt win 8/1 b365 (BOG)
Rebel Gold. 1pt win 12/1 b365 (BOG) |
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1pt ew nassalam Fred winter12/1 bet365 1/4 4 places, 2pts ew Botox Has Coral Cup 12/1 bet365 1/4 first 4.
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Saturday
1.50 Sandown Gladiateur Allen 2pts win 14/1 vc Karl Philippe. 1 pt. win 7/1 b3 6 5 ( BOG) |
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Good to see you about PMT
Two Interesting horses for connections,both were a tad bigger a few weeks back. Pretty sure I stuck BH up at Ascot lto,fair to say he might come on for that  Decent chances for the yard,including their flagship horse,credit to the trainer. Hope not tempting fate here....what became of Baron Alco,real soft spot for him ? Thanks for the Imput,must be so frustrating for owners at the moment. Enjoy the week,may they all come home safely,the rest will take care of Itself. |
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Paddy’s Reward Club Chase - Annsam 0.8pt Win 14’s (Boyles)
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Webster Cup - Any Second Now 1.4pt Win 7’s (B365)
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yes I backed Botox when he was 33/1 and more at 25/1 and more at 16/1 but im not going to aftertime on here! Nassalam has a tough task to give weight to the likes of Houx Gris but hes well and will run his race. The ground will be too fast for him in the Triumph so we chose the handicap on the first day when it it is guaranteed to have some cut.
Botox has improved a lot since Ascot. dont think he was 100% there. Baron Alco was going to go for the Foxhunters this year but his leg went wrong again and he has happily retired.If his leg gets right he might go eventing or hunting for the lady we gave him to. I just posted a picture on instagram of him drinking a cup of tea. |
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1630 Navan - School Boy Hours 1pt Win 6’s (B365)
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2.25 San
Malaya 0.5pt ew @ 14/1 (WH, 6plcs) |