Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1543 comments are related to the topic:
National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,543
|
By:
3.10 Exe
Findusatgarcombe 1pt win @ 12/1 (VC) |
|
By:
PTB
Usually no less than 6/1 |
|
By:
I automatically discount any horses with an SP F/C of less than 5/1
|
|
By:
Eider - Salty Boy 1pt Win 8’s (Sportsbook)
Close Bros - Black Corton 0.9pt Win 12’s (Various) |
|
By:
B/F - 2pts
Saturday 3.15 Newcastle The Dutchman 1pt win 7/1 (BOG) b 3 6 5 Cyclop 1pt win 9/1 (BOG) b 3 6 5 3.35 Kempton Black Corton 1pt win 12/1 wh Southfield Stone 1pt win 12/1 ( BOG) b 3 6 5 |
|
By:
Antipost
Midlands National Sam's Adventure 1pt win @ 14/1 (WH) |
|
By:
Grand National - The Long Mile 0.8pts Win 40’s (PP NRNB)
|
|
By:
Facts ...... Do you follow stats,for any of the races you decide to play ?
|
|
By:
3.35 Kem
Erick Le Rouge 0.5pt win @ 25/1 (B3.6.5) |
|
By:
Hi noc.
Nope. Just the ' todays ' race and the qualifying horses form and weight being carried. And for Flat races, the distance comes into play too. |
|
By:
Cheers Facts.
|
|
By:
Cheers Budd
Interesting we have very similar price criteria. As for the flat,distance was the big eye-opener for me last season,explain more nearer the time. |
|
By:
The interesting element of Flat distances coming out of last season, for me, was to NOT play in distances of 10f and 11f
Looking at my records there was a significantly poor record of wins at this distance using my methodology. Assuming this was a freak statistic, I looked back over previous 3 years records. The result was the same. Consequently I will be avoiding any class handicaps races over 10/11f. The positive was sprint handicaps with big fields ( 14+!runners ). |
|
By:
Exactly ..... what you think you may like,can be a big long term loser,over a number of seasons.
|
|
By:
1600 Fairyhouse - Ten Ten 1pt Win 9’s (B365)
|
|
By:
3.35 Kem
Young Wolf 0.5pt win @ 22/1 (VC) |
|
By:
4.10 Kem
Guy 1pt win @ 9/1 (B3.6.5) |
|
By:
3.15 New
Friends Don't Ask 0.5pt ew @ 66/1 (Bertway) |
|
By:
Eider - The Dutchman 0.9pt Win 12’s (UB)
|
|
By:
Morning All
Good point re ground on the Eider thread GI. Very dry forecast next couple weeks at HQ,based my early thoughts on soft ground. Hopefully there is enough juice in there to refrain from the usual,we will see. You had a look at the handicap entries?,I see that Ultima shout has an entry. Few quid around for the Eider guess,hopefully ridden nearer the pace today. Fab .... Was it you who I discussed that Jonjo horse with,1st race Kempton,last season ? He looked a very promising stayer in the making,had a year off,two quiet runs so far,interested to see how he gets on later,right handed with decent ground might be up his street. Tricky looking cards at both meetings. |
|
By:
I have had a look, I've narrowed them down to Brit runners in the hcp chases and Elliot/Mullins runners in the hcp hurdles
 My one for the Ultima is not much of a price. Salty Boy well backed all week I see, did you have nibble? |
|
By:
1-15 kempton
Diocletian 0.5pt Tedham 0.5pt |
|
By:
Afternoon
He was a little bigger when entries came out, a rare antepost wager. Tailed off,doubled in price 5 mins before the off,great game this  That Tedham yard,always seem to get them wrong. Like your one of theirs later too,kiss of death if I stick him up. |
|
By:
3-15 newc
Salty Boy 0.5pt Springfield Fox 0.5pt Tough old race to work out. GL Everyone |
|
By:
3-35 kempton
The Butcher Said 0.33pt Slate House 0.33pt Young Wolf 0.33pt |
|
By:
3-50 newc
Northern Beau 0.5pt Ask Himself 0.5pt |
|
By:
GI .... Another close one
4-10 kempton Monsieur Darque 0.33pt No Hidden Charges 0.33pt Braquer Dor 0.33pt |
|
By:
aye, p!sh day... onwards.
|
|
By:
Same here
 4-25 newc Fortified Bay 0.5pt Last Goodbye 0.5pt |
|
By:
Yep. Had better days, 2 falling didn't help !
Pain lessened for you noc with that last winner  |
|
By:
WP Noc
Think we did discuss Tedham Noc. Thought he would put himself in Pertemps picture today, but he looks gone. Tough weekend again here. Facts, I’ve caught that seconditis, and I really don’t like it. Lost count of them this season. B/F +39.54 IP 20.6 Quartz Du Rheu -1 Close Bros -2.6 Eider -1.9 Ten Ten -1 The Long Mile -0.8 Escaria Ten NRNB +3.3 Palmers Hill NRNB +0.9 C/F +36.44 IP 17.2 |
|
By:
Thanks both ...... Papering over the cracks,that was poor yesterday,way off the pace.
Very wet winter months to drying spring ground,Newbury last weekend set the alarm bells off. We have all seen horses thrive given warmer weather and better ground,very hard to predict. +48.24 dio/ted -1 sb/sf -1 tbs/sh/yw -1 nb/ah -1 md/nhc/bd -1 lg -0.5 fort bay +3.6 (8.2) +46.34 / 0 IP |
|
By:
Facts just in reply to your answer to Pete the blokes question...as confused by your response tbh
I thought Pete was asking how do you decipher what odds you are prepared to take once selecting a horse? your reply was 6/1 and you wouldn’t bet anything under 5/1 My reply would be it depends Pete what price I make the horse and whether the odds are realistic to the horses actual chances of winning the race, to whether I wager the said horse Yesterday you bet 2 horses in one race so I do not get your actual answering of the question posed by Pete, as you have bet a 9/1 chance and a 7/1 chance in the same race...which at coupled odds is 4/1 the 9/1 chance and 3/1 the 7/1 shot because 2 points has been staked in this scenario...so I’m confused because you are actually betting horses at under what you say you will bet horses at...bit like betting two 6/1 chances and getting paid 5/2 on a 2 point selection...anyway coupling of horses is something I do regularly myself to safeguard stake but I don’t understand how you can say you only bet horses at 5 or 6/1 and above when you are actually coupling horses at lower than this, so hopefully you can put me straight, as I like to be kept honest. Also earlier in the thread the question in regards ew betting arised and obviously you don’t bet ew which is fair enough, however fabulous who always bets ew has now changed his strategy in agreement with you, I have noticed a decline in his success, which to me says he has moved to something he isn’t comfortable with as a bettor, hopefully he will tell me as I have noticed him coupling more horses in races now, win only personally every punter should bet with what he/she is comfortable with...I bet both myself mainly because I’m betting at prices and I may see 2/3 horses that I know can beat me but I’m getting the right odds to take the comfort of betting a horse ew personally my problem is I don’t place enough stake in the place market on a confident selection, case in question solid stone in the balmoral and summer moon in the ces both bet at big odds both however not enough on the place...I’m not in disagreement with you by the way facts as because of the 1/5th odds I don’t like it but it may not suit every bettor, fabulous in this case regularly bets a lot of horses at big odds and turns over a lot of bets, which will always lead to long losing runs and in his case winning runs...anyway I can see why a selective bettor like you facts bets win only but can see why a high turnover big odds bettor like fabulous bets ew because he is always going to have more knock backs than you because of the odds he bets at, this though will always lead to long losing runs it goes with the odds he bets at but now he is on run of no returns and can lead to lack of confidence something he is showing me since he changed to win only...I know because I was a similar player when I had the brain power years ago Anyway you boys continue in good form and wish you well...just the all weather for me...fingers crossed for a good ground Cheltenham then the form will be difficult...I like this as we may get paid against the field |
|
By:
Each bet I make with level stakes , will be over 5/1. My system is aiming at horses with a minimum of this price.
Majority will be higher. Yes sometimes there will be more than one selection in a race. And yes, if you calculated stake against the two horses , if one won, it would be mathematically less than 5/1. However I work on each horse is a single bet , one bet for each horse. Two horses in one race , is as far as I'm concerned is the same as 2 separate horses in 2 races. I.e if I have 300 bets in a year and have 50 winners at a total of sp 6/1 . My total sp would be 300 + 50 stake, So return of 350 = profit of 50 pts. But my average sp would be 300 divided by 50 winners = 6/1 average sp. Irrespective of whether the 300 bets were one horse in one race, or 2 horses in 150 races , or 3 horses in 100 races. |
|
By:
1600 Punchestown - Milliner 1pt Win 6’s (B365)
|
|
By:
harry,
And with reference to your comment regarding my reply to PTB I.e :- "......My reply would be it depends Pete what price I make the horse and whether the odds are realistic to the horses actual chances of winning the race, to whether I wager the said horse......." As I've stated in my previous posts relating to my methodology of selections to bet. The qualifiers ( that are already forecasted to start at greater than 6/1) are calculated on certain KPI's.. Whether the odds are ' realistic ' to ' actual chances ' are irrelevant , as this requires judgemental views. Again, as stated previously, such ' gut feelings ' etc do not feature in my rules of what makes a qualifier a bet. |
|
By:
1600 Punchestown - Dalton Highway 1pt Win 8’s (B365)
|
|
By:
Facts thanks for clarifying, I had to cogitate your reasoning but now see where you are coming from, which is fair enough if that is your strategy
I suppose I struggle to understand how anyone that doesn’t know or care to know whether they are betting at the correct odds is confusing for me, yes this is judgemental but it is important to bet at the correct odds imo and understand horses actual chance of winning beating SP for so many punters is important, I cannot say it is for me but I still need to know I’m betting the actual correct price of the said horses chances of winning the race, this doesn’t have to be a perfect tissue but at least close, to know you are betting close to the right odds of the said selection Anyway thanks for putting me straight facts, I now understand where you coming from, it took me a while but It’s gone in |
|
By:
Thank harry, no problem. The goal is always to try and make this game profitable.
Keep the faith  |
|
By:
Yes Noc, very little time. Home schooling a 4yo Mon-Friday then working Sat/Sunday. The last 3 years Cheltenham has turned my seasons around and think i've got some very good bets going into it this time around, as posted on here. The pick now probably being Tritonic at 12/1. Will do a round up this week!
|