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National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
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Thanks guys. Good when it doesn't matter which way the photo goes !
Sorry Fab ! Three of us were on Achille. Would have been nice if that had prevailed. |
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B/F ( Evens.)
3.35 Newbury ( Betfair Hcap Hdle) Edwardstone 1 pt win 14/1 ( BOG) b 3 6 5 Fifty Ball 1 pt win 14/1 ( BOG) b 3 6 5 |
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Wd facts, noc
Awful run here so steer clear Believe Bravemansgame is the Ballymore winner so taking a position on him and related horses Denman Chase 3pt Clan Des Obeaux 10/11 var 3.35 Newbury Soaring Glory 1.5pt ew 7/1 3.65 Ballymore Bravemansgame 3pt 9/2 var |
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1.50 New
Es Perfecto 1pt win @ 7/1 (B3.6.5) |
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WP Mac
Betfair Hurdle - Gumball 0.4pts EW 80’s (Sportsbook) |
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Morning All
Everyone goes there Sint,that awful feeling that the racing gods conspire against every selection. Quite a few short ones this season I noticed,are you able to put in the time at the moment? Your record with those ante-post festival bets is normally very good,be watching them closely. One decent hit can change all of that,your too good for that run to continue. Hows it going GI What do you make of that Newbury going description ? Up there with the worst normally,be amazed if there is any "Good/Soft" on any part of the course. Just the one novice race before that first handicap,any clues will be gratefully accepted. Down to 4 hopefuls in the Betfair,so many angles in that race. Like an opinion on one,probably for later in the season,or novice chasing. Tricky looking day. |
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Morning noc
Its hard to judge, so yes, probably best waiting to see the first race, there was some rain around this morning. Most courses give quite good up to date info on their track, going & weather etc, Feck all from Newbury is the norm. The ground is key I feel today for the betfair hurdle. Big old gamble on Cepage in the Denman Chase, opened as big as 25/1! cheers Fab. We are on similar wavelengths again, Gumball on my radar, waiting to see the ground, I can see him placing no problem. |
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Not surprised they want to take on CDO today.
I have tentatively sent over a message. Any mention of a xmas entry,at bethlehem,will not be seen favourably  .I have given the 7 yr olds a wide berth,you have to start somewhere. |
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3.35 New: 0.5 ew Mister Coffey (BF sp)
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1350 Newbury - Palmers Hill 0.5pt Win 12’s
1425 Newbury - The Conditional 0.9pt Win 10’s Both various |
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1-50 newb
Silent Assistant 0.33pt Vive Le Roi 0.33pt Dell Arca 0.33pt |
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2.25 New
Terrefort 0.5pt win @ 40/1 (WH) |
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3.35 New
Fred 0.5pt ew @ 40/1 (SB, 7plcs) |
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1-57 uttox
Global Flame 0.5pt Bialco 0.5pt |
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2-25 newbury
Secret Investor 0.5pt Kalashnikov 0.5pt |
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I'm sure Cobden will be delighted the stable won the race there ... .. .
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3.35 New
Gumball 0.25ew @ 50/1 (ski, 7plcs) |
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Wp noc. Excellent tipping.
Let's hope The Conditional is ok |
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The worse news re The Conditional.
 Sympathies to all concerned. |
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wp noc
3.15 Mar Langer Dan 1pt qin @ 8/1 (Unibert) |
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3-00 newb
Fanion Destruval 0.5pt Majic Saint 0.5pt |
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3-15 mr
Langer Dan 0.25pt Gortroe Joe 0.5pt Dream Du Grand val 0.25pt |
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WP again Noc
Betfair Hurdle - Edwardstone 0.8pt Win 16’s (BV) |
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The Conditional
...... RIP3-35 newb Fifty Ball 0.5pt Night Edition 0.5pt Galice Macalo 0.25pt Glory And Fortune 0.25pt GL Everyone |
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2nd and 3rd places - AGAIN !!
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Well Done Sint ...... Top Bombing
 First Three between us again. |
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Close again Facts
 4-10 newbury Rockpoint 0.5pt Ballymoy 0.5pt |
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wp sint
+5.23 / 0 IP Feelgood Island -1 Gundigger -0.5 Fiveaftermidnight -0.5 Monbeg Notorius -0.5 Dounikos -0.5 Nick Lost -0.5 Crixus Escape -1 Donnas Diamond -1 Night Edition -1 Malaya -1 First Lord De Cuet +5 Fawsley Spirit -1 Es Perfecto -1 Terrefort -0.5 Fred -1 Gumball -0.5 Langer Dan -1 -2.27 / 1 IP |
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Nice win sint
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WP Sint.
Hard going this week..... B/F +54.84 IP 17.9 Kelso -1.4 Donna’s Diamond -1 Swinley -2.3 Kansas City Chief -1.3 National Trial -1.4 Pertemps -1.4 The Conditional -0.9 Palmers Hill -0.5 Betfair Hurdle -2.4 Dashel Drasher -0.9 Frodon -0.8 Sub Lieutenant -1 Bachasson -0.9 NRNB - Delta Work +0.9 C/F +39.54 IP 20.6 |
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1345 Southwell - Quartz Du Rheu 1pt Win 8’s (B365)
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Close Bros
Erick Le Rouge 0.9pt Win 25’s Talkischeap 0.8pt Win 14’s Both Hills |
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+43.35
the mul -0.5 gal quest +7.45 (15.91) m fact -0.5 third wind +2.61 (6.22) ach/pl -1 mal/dlv/kepp -1 fof/edl -1 sykes/mw/fps -1 kcc/ef/ws -1 yo/oa/ldo -1 sa/vlr/da -1 gf/bialco -1 kalash -0.5 sec invest +8.83 (18.66) fd/ms -1 ld/gj/ddgv -1 fb/ne/gm/gaf -1.5 rock/bally -1 +48.24 / 0 IP Gut feeling .... Did not make the most from the weekend. Still plenty of lazy ones in there,they really do annoy me. Time constraints/value should dictate the amount of proper bets,staked accordingly. Back to that key word ..... Discipline ..... The abilty to say no,having put the time into a race. Onwards |
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noc
Having a set of rules to to highlight a betting selection, is important. Adhering to these rules is fundamental. Consequently, as you quite rightly state, discipline is key. |
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I can certainly be guilty of lazy bets.
Noticed Bryony beating Cobden in a head bobber again today, makes me chuckle that.. Handicap entries out this week, getting closer gents. |
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Facts ... Thats why I like reading your stuff,and your staking rarely changes.
I get the feeling it took a while to get to your current strategy ? GI ..... A rare midweek excursion across the border I see  You know my stance on some of these results,I did not put up SI on its form. I have to say though,they did make it look good,such a pity the outsider copped the gold. Lazy bets ..... Got the T-Shirt on that one. Musseburgh,4 miler,couple weeks back,I knew that was right up your alley. Identifying the type of races and those involved,game within a game. |
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Many many years noc !
In the last 2 years I've firmed up my ' rules for selection ' And now feel comfortable in my betting strategy going forward. Time will tell. Really looking forward to this Flat Season and the Class Handicaps |
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Please .... No mention of the flat
,still smarting from last season.But,something did come to light this end,still not had a chance to review it fully,but I can certainly tell you which races I will not be playing In. Deep down,I,m sure thats why I prefer jumpers,the turnover of older horses is far less than your average flat campaigner.I guess you could argue the flip side with the flat would be the longevity of sprinters for instance,I could see the merit in someone concentrating on those types. "Many many years" ...... Fully understand that statement. Thats sort of why I mentioned the "Lazy Bets",sometimes I need to remind myself of the simple things. I can handle getting it wrong,that is always a judgement call.What Irritates me is missing out on simple stuff,which can be a number of things,but invariably is down to poor study on my part. Cheltenham handicap entries out ... Reminds me,need a new Pin  |
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noc
The years have been spent whittling down the criteria required for a bet. Now I have fixed rules. Horses have to have shown ( in their previous form ), the necessary rules to qualify for shortlist. This shortlist is then subjected to a strict matching ( Y/N), against a list of key performance indicators. To some, I know, this would appear too formalistic. But it takes out the gut feel, the what ifs/ maybe's , the sentiment. - Only certain races qualify for scrutiny - Only certain horses are shortlisted. - Only a bet, if there's a match. Again, probably appears somewhat ' joyless' But it's design ( after years of keeping records, refining and redefining the rules and KPI's), removes the guesswork and/or interpretation of the facts. Any thoughts / observations/questions welcome. |
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One question, Facts - once you arrive at a selection, how do you decide what price you're
prepared to take? |