Horse Antepost
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National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
National Hunt 20/21 Big Races Thread
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Noc/Fab - glad to see you both in +ive p/l for season
I still think the key is when NOT to play,a game within a game. Yeah, this is a big one. The boredom of lockdown has had me placing so many bets I'd never place, all these negative value bets drag down the p/l. Also with all bookies accounts gone the only way I can really bet is dotr on exchange. Add to that the 48 hour declaration stages gives the people who have bookies accounts the added time to take the value horses I used to be able to take. So it's pushed me to almost exclusively find value on big priced runners more so than ever and an entire season swings on one or two 60.0 or 70.0 horses who lose by a nose. With no way to take advantage of the free money bookies are offering with the extra e/w terms these days it's tough mentally to stay the course as you'd need like 3/4 seasons to correctly measure my edge at those prices. A particularly bad one was Top Moon, was sure this was the standard JP big pot hunter. Was like 10lbs better over hurdles and his novice chases were to get a mark. I backed him on his 3 runs in h/c company but felt the Dublin Racing festival is where the JP targets are now not Christmas due to prize money. So I put a decent bet on at avg 70.0 and he just fails to get up on the line. Season hinges on these things, this season feels like they've all lost half a length. Which makes me think only option is back to lay. I think something like double bet everything next season one with a double your money back and lay at 50% odds i/r and then the other rides. This way at least I can avoid losing when the good value bets run well without winning, which seems to be very often. All in all though what and how I'm betting is a million miles away from the rules of this thread. |
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Well played Fab.
Good to see you cvb - people were worrying they'd missed your wake recently. Hope yer well? |
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This is doorty.
Brown Advisory NRNB Eklat de Rire 1pt e/w (PP) 8/1 The Big Breakaway 1pt e/w (Sk y) 13/2 Sporting John 0.8pts e/w (BFSB) 12/1 |
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Oops. Sorry. Does that exceed the max per race? Filthy stuff anyway. I'm ashamed.
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Thanks pete, yeah Noc sent me an email the other day to check I was still alive. I just had a busy time having moved house and with other things in an interesting year. Hope everyone is doing well and looking forward to Cheltenham and an end to lockdown
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You're based in the south, aren't you? Up here we will probably be out and about way ahead of youse,
which is a shame, because we won't even be allowed to drive to Donegal (although I doubt they'll stop me if I walk). |
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This Houx Gris looks to be absolutely thrown in off 128 in the Boodles. How he's been handed that mark! Nicholls said he doesn't run horses as soon after arriving when he ran at Chepstow in G1, he travelled really well, flattened the 2nd last and was let come home on his own time afterwards. He cost 200k from France where he'd won a bumper and a hurdle. Chaotic race but I liked that Houx Gris was closer to the pace at Chepstow when they reeled in the front runner so hopefully can stay out of trouble in such a big field.
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"Missed your wake recently " ..... Nice One Pete
 No limit to amount of horses per race,makes sense if you have nonners etc. Scoir Mear earlier today was an example of my point.Backed him with Fab lto,where he was given a less than vigourous ride,leaving the feeling he was still competitive off current mark. Just too many green and golds for my liking in that Leinster National,sometimes we have to grin and bear it,in the long term I,m comfortable with those calls,at the time they can be annoying. Every horse this week I put up will have some sort of lay entered,normally very short,between 1.11 - 1.51.That lay would cover all bets in that race,depending on the odds involved.Given that option pre-race,to get out of a bet with no downside,is my thinking on that one. Lots of choice on here,direct access to the Nanny Goat included,betting "without" etc. Outside those heading the market is where it does get interesting,especially close to off time.Of course some of those will be non-jiggers,but not all of them. The rose tinted glasses that once saw everything at cheltenham as "Trying",have long since gone. Let battle commence. |
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wp yesterday fab.
10mm of rain last night.... |
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cvbyrne ; yes Houx Gris looks thrown in to get 13lbs for being beaten an eased down20 lengths but he hasn't yet performed to a higher level and that Chepstow race was a stop and start affair that flattered some of the beaten horses. It may be that he is thrown in or it maybe that he is a talking horse . He was said to have hated the ground at Chepstow but it will be similar tomorrow too now that it has rained.
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Morning Budd
Mainly Soft,gd/sft in places,sounds fair IF it is accurate,fresh ground for both courses as well. Mind you,they told us it was good/sft at Sandown over the weekend,complete guesswork. Nice look to your ante-post wagers following decs,be watching them with interest. Anyone know why Jacob is not on Concertista ?,been mulling that one over. Few shillings on Blackmore for top jockey,HDB looks to have plenty of Ammo,like his style. Despite the numbers,some cracking horses on show day 1,just as it should be. |
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morning noc, turftrax have it mostly soft, interesting, dry day ahead though. https://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html
As I understand it, but I'm not 100% sure, Jacobs does not have first call over Simon Munirs horses that are trained in Ireland. |
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Champion Bumper
2pts Elle est Belle 20/1 B.3.6.5 |
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Champion Bumper
Wonderwall 0.25pts e/w @ 25/1 4 places (various) |
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Thanks GI
Wondered if there was a reason,no power packed DJ,is that a negative ? |
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I'm not answering that question...
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The Wolf, Aladnam, Houx Gris, Hell Red, Remastered, Nestor Park are the ones I'll be taking for Tuesday
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Champion Hurdle
Aspire Tower - 1 pt e/w @ 22/1 (5 places, Hills) Ultima Hcp Chase Nietzsche - 0.5 pt e/w @ 25/1 (7 places, Slybet) Boodles Hcp Hurdle Busselton - 1 pt win @ 17/2 (Hills) Zoffanien - 0.5 pt e/w @ 20/1 (6 places, Slybet) Druids Altar - 0.5 pt e/w @ 22/1 (6 places, Slybet) Mares Hurdle My Sister Sarah - 0.5 pt e/w. @ 50/1 (4 places, BVictor) |
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Wasn't expecting AI to go odds on GI/ Decided to back Metier ew with the going now Soft, supposedly.
1.5pt ew Metier 11/2, bfsb |
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Mares Hurdle - Floressa 1pt ew 12/1, 3.65. The w/o Concertista & Roksana market. Only firm offering it.
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4.15 Cheltenham Cabot Cliffs 1pt win 16/1. b3 6 5 ( BOG)
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Aye, everyone wanting to take him on sint, but betting suggests no one is. I'm thinking a small bet on Soaring Glory myself, so might use the slybet freebie. Personally I think it will be near to g/s come the off today.
Good luck this week everyone... |
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2.30 Che
One For The Team 0.75pt ew @ 8/1 (B3.6.5 4plcs 1/4) |
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Morning All ...... Decent cards Sedgefield/Southwell
 Hard to remember an opening day with quite so many short priced horses. Large amounts on the Supreme matched,twice as much as the Champion Hurdle at the moment. How much is this form,or possibly ground related,no surprise if its much softer than indicated. Still think the NH Chase as the finale is a huge mistake,younger novices over that distance remains a potential for disaster,first race on the wednesday was the perfect place for it. Couple of big priced winners put up on here for the Fred Winter recently,looks another toughie. If you can send placepot numbers over please GI ..... Be obliged. |
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not getting particularly excited about that bet today with the field sizes have to admit, might have a wild stab w/o shiskin and AI.
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Champion Hurdle
Epatante 1pt win @ 4/1 (B3.6.5) |
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Either of those two out might make it interesting.
Just opened account with Tote,able to do bigger perms for smaller units,only this type of meeting that I play regularly,where a decent pool is usually guaranteed. What do you make of the Fred Winter? |
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Tough race as ever noc. Very hard to narrow down the field, for me this race is all about your gut feeling more than form. I've been on Sage Advice for a while now, convinced he has a stone in hand, the other I like is this fellow, typical Elliot profile going into the race.
Boodles Glorius Zoff 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 (VC, 5plcs 1/5) |
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Champion Hurdle
Goshen 1pt win 11/2 BOG (Freds) |
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Boodles - Zoffanien 0.7pt EW 20’s (Various 6pl)
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Good luck today, everyone. Excitement is building
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Ultima
Milan Native 0.5pt win @ 7/1 (B3.6.5) |
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1-20 chelt
Ballyadam 0.5pt Blue Lord 0.25pt Irascible 0.25pt GL ALL |
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4.15 Chelts: 0.5 ew Houx Gris (BF sp)
4.50 Chelts: 1pt win Next Destination (BF sp) |
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1-55 chelt
Captain Guinness 0.25pt Franco De Port 0.25pt |
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Ultima
Ok Corral 0.45pt EW 22’s Fingerontheswitch 0.25pts EW 66’s Both 7pls Sky |
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2-30 chelt
One For The Team 0.5pt Admirals Secret 0.25pt The Wolf 0.25 pt |
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Vintage Clouds, probably been backed by all of us multiple times but not today.
Nice for the trainer/jockey but kicking myself personally.... |
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In the last 3 occasions he's been reduced to an official rating of 143 he's won !!
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Mares - Great White Shark 0.5pts EW 20’s 4pl (BV)
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