13 now on here

I’m looking for ‘winning post enclosure’ tickets Sunday.

Anyone know of any deals or promotion codes on them – they’re 65 Euro on France galop?

Thanks

i read on the forum here or horse racing , that there was a lot of disappointed spectators re the enclosures etc last year.

Andrew,

Which enclosure are you going in?

Thanks Andrew

In what looks to be another mediocre Arc I've had a fair old go at Fierement the late maturing Japanese St Leger winner,with there looking to be plenty of pace I'm hoping this will be set up for a finisher ie Fierement.This is what Christophe Lemaire had to say about its prep race "He ran well. This Sapporo course is small and the distance was too short for him," said Lemaire.
"His spurt was a little late but he ran well at the straight and showed a good turn of foot. The Arc is his main target and he'll be suited by a step up in trip. I look forward to him running in it."

wonder if baldy will put her up as a push ? not for me as already on japan at 40 just before the derby and magical at around 30 ish , not sure she will run but the gap in  the prices between her and the fav is too wide ,sure she has been turned over by enable every time they have met but she has not got that much to find . japan needs to carry on the improvement but has that upward curve and  looks to be getting better and better  and just coming to the boil ,will it be good enough to win ? not long to find out now .

Frenchie extra
SOFT LITES

Here are the draws: Enable (9); Japan (10); Sottsass (1); Waldgeist (3); Magical (8); Ghaiyyath (12).

I have had a little e/w on French King ; take Enable out and it would be a very open race .

I cant see a thread for the Abbaye .  Finsbury Square will have his ground . A shade unlucky last year , 66/1 looks too big to me .

easy win for Enable

Looking at this race purely from a market perspective, I would say that it more than a little out of balance as we have perhaps the shortest price favourite since Deep Impact when his supporters virtually crated a one horse book.Predicting who the most likely winner might be (Enable) is a lot easier than pricing up her chance of doing so. Personally, I think that she is poor value at odds on although I know that many see her as value at her current price (short as 1.68 this morning now eased slightly) but opposing her because of price is hard to do when she sluices up.

However, that is what I propose to do. The horses out of line have started to shorten up not least Magical who is now down a more realistic price around 11.5 and could go off the same price almost as Japan. Who would have thought that a few days ago when she was out almost to 30.0? But, the value has gone now imo.

The other main market anomaly is Ghayyaith who is trading at around 13.0 to 15.0. Purely on the ratings he should be second favourite so why is he so big? I can only guess at the reasons but it wouldn't be the first time that the market gets it badly wrong.

You may not fancy any of the Japanese horses but at the prices they are incredibly over-priced and in this ground an upset is always possible.

In the longterm you have to bet what you believe is value and take it on the chin when a poor value favourite wins. This may be one of those days.

Funnily enough I've been considering to 'lay' Ghaiyyath for a place at 3.25 as I'm still unconvinced about his Germany form despite his lofty rating. Another negative is the wfa allowance and Enable in the field. I'd have done a match bet between Ghaiyyath and Magical but no such market available.

I agree with Gosden if Enable reproduces her latest Arc win she'd be done by one of 3yr olds.

you can disagree but its all there in the profiles of the horses, do you honestly believe aiden o'brien has been giving the jockeys the wrong instructions on how to ride magical all this time

Japan turned out to be better than I thought after Ascot but I would still rate him no more than on par with an average Derby winner, which sometimes is good enough to win this event but wouldn't be good enough to beat an on form Enable. Unless she's below par he'll need to improve again, and as I thought he had a hard race last time that seems unlikely to me even after a rest. I rate Sottsass 4lbs behind Japan so, for me, he'll have to improve even more. I won't pretend I have a handle on Ghaiyyath's latest form. There's always a danger of underestimating these efforts like I did with Danedream but German racing appears to have declined since those days. Even if it was as good an effort as it looked, he's obviously been a horse with problems so there would still be a doubt about him repeating it, so I'm happy to pass on him.

I've already said that I consider the POW a better standard than this year's King George, with Crystal Ocean running a bit below his best in the second race. I reckon Magical was also below that form at Sandown and York. I can't categorically say that she was back to her best at Leopardstown, as the time was only fair and even the York form entitled her to win by that margin. However, visually to me she looked more like the filly who had performed so well at Ascot. There was also an excuse for the time not being special, as there was a lull in the pace mid-race. At this moment I believe I'm right about the POW effort but of course I could be wrong. There is also more margin for error when relying on visual impressions. A faster time at Leopardstown would obviously have been a better pointer, but that would still have been a double edged sword as it would've been far from ideal running so fast immediately before the Arc.

Until Enable is beaten there is no saying that she can't find more than she's had to already, she could be even better than she's shown, but when a horse is a short price like this I prefer to take it at face value. So I can't say this is the most confident I've ever been about a race but I reckon Magical represents outstanding value so I've had some decent bets on her, which will either give me an easier time over the winter or leave me trying to claw losses back over the coming weeks.

Bow down to the king.

I saw no reason why Waldgeist would turn the form around with Enable so well done to those who backed him. Initial thoughts are that Enable wasn't quite at her best, rather than Waldgeist improving, but too early to say for sure.

Well done Uncle. I really did look at him but you cannot back every horse. I had hoped the three year olds would do better but there was not a lot of confidence behind them and Enable's form is not really great so there was always the possibility of a turn up. Magical had every chance I suppose so no real excuses there.

Very good shout Uncle (and anyone else who put him up)