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prix de l,arc de triomphe

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Replies: 173
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 15 Sep 19 20:18
Not sure Magical will go to the Arc. That coupled with the Breeders Cup and her already busy season seems a lot to ask. I think she is better going left handed and America may be the choice. Time will tell.
By:
Figgis
When: 15 Sep 19 20:27
The mid season break was all important. Can't imagine Saturday's race would've taken much out of her given the pace it was run at, in terms of final times I have it 12lbs below her very best. Assuming that she's giving them the right signals closer to the time I can't see them passing up the chance of an Arc, particularly as the last time they bagged the race it was with another 4yo filly.
By:
A_T
When: 15 Sep 19 20:39
What mid-season break? She ran in July and then in August. Even if you accept that it was a break she was beaten at York more easily by Enable than she was in the Eclipse. This all sounds like it's just a hope that she's another Found.
By:
Figgis
When: 15 Sep 19 21:21
47 days between her runs in the Eclipse and Yorkshire Oaks. I'd call almost 7 weeks a decent break in a short flat season. She was beaten at York but O'Brien said she was just ready to start again. Like most things he says there can be truth or it can be spin and the market usually speaks far louder than him where that yard is concerned. Personally I was sceptical about her coming on for the run at York, but I was also sceptical about Ten Sovereigns coming on from Ascot. The Irish Champion Stakes convinced me she has.

Of course I don't expect everyone to agree with me. Enable has beaten Magical four times fair and square. There was no way Magical was going to beat Enable last year as she just wasn't good enough. I reckon this year, however, that the improved 4yo Magical wasn't at her best in the Eclipse (predicted beforehand) and again at York. Some horses, the exceptions like Enable, are top class virtually throughout their whole career, but most, like Magical, are capable of putting up a few high performances then experience troughs.

Obviously people will say that the King George form with Crystal Ocean points to Enable being better than an on song Magical anyway and me saying that CO was a few pounds below his POW is just another excuse. But if they're saying that CO ran to the pound in both races then they're making an excuse for Waldgeist's display in the POW, or they're saying he improved on his third run of the season at the age of 5, which is plausible, it's also what I thought initially. All I'm doing is saying it was in fact him that ran to form not CO, as that's what the time analysis tells me. As to Found, I rate Magical a few pounds better than her ExcitedWink
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 22 Sep 19 08:14
Anybody know when the next declaration stage is? Cheers
By:
A_T
When: 22 Sep 19 09:02
30th Sept
By:
sageform
When: 22 Sep 19 09:21
Much as I admire Enable, I can't back her at odds on this far from the race.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 22 Sep 19 10:12
after all the early skirmishes trying to get the big prices on  possible winners now the dust has settled,   now with the race a few weeks away  and the fav so short still some juice in the others and looking at the market now  magical at around 30 on here  appeals ,already on at roughly that  price and have a few others running for me  hopefull that she will go for this , enable obviously  will be hard to beat but cant be afraid of 1 horse and  magical has not got much to find  and at the odds i will be topping up on her .
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Sep 19 14:02
Unless Enable underperforms which is very unlikely given her history and the two 3 yr olds are just much of a muchness Magical is nailed on to run another big race if turning up (and I think she will) given she's closely matched with Enable (she's also entered in the Sun Chariot a day earlier) and it's The Arc - a place is almost assured. The final decs could be friday 4th, I think.

Only 2 weeks to go. I just hope all the big guns show up on the day - cannot wait.
By:
gpz6316
When: 22 Sep 19 20:43
looks like sottsass to me
By:
gpz6316
When: 22 Sep 19 20:43
looks like sottsass to me
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Sep 19 14:40
I hope you're right, Enable and Japan will do too.
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Sep 19 19:52
Enable (4/5), Japan (6/1) and Ghaiyyath (12/1) have been supported less so Sottsass (9 here) is available. I hope Magical and Broome run too both 26 and 240 here respectively.
By:
gpz6316
When: 25 Sep 19 20:15
i think its that time when a legend doesnt have it no more and is retired . just like montjeu vs sinndarr .if you look at japans form this season it suggests a burly horse, needed 3 races to get on a roll and rested since 21st august . that doesnt look promising to me japan cup maybe ? magical looks the aob horse . then sottsass do these french races have the class anymore ? i,m changing my mind to magical / floating at the moment
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Sep 19 21:05
Magical would not be winning out of turn if Enable underperforms; she's better than Found in my opinion. And, I think Enable is not as good as she was when winning this race the 1st time. I'm not a great fan of Japan either even though I backed him in the King Edward - a far inferior race; beating Crystal Ocean over 2f shorter does not scream back me, back me.

But I hope Sottsass has the class to beat Enable.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 25 Sep 19 21:33
so you are on the magical bandwagon impossible123Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Sep 19 22:26
I think Magical at 26 here is value, but represents some doubt about her participation, I think. I'm on Magical (a free bet at 36 here), and 4 others eg Enable, Japan, Sottsass and Broome; a calamity if none is successful.
By:
elisjohn
When: 26 Sep 19 07:05
im sticking with sottsass and deirdrie
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Sep 19 16:29
I like Sottsass too, and I firmly believe it would be him to benefit most if Enable does not bring her A-game to Longchamp next sunday. Next best would be Enable with trebles and accas going on to the King george on Boxing Day and Pinatubo for 2000G next April. I hope every one turn upon schedule.
By:
Sandown
When: 27 Sep 19 13:14
The case for Enable is easy to make and it would appear her race to lose. However, at this stage her price is not one to take with the A/P risk.

If there is a horse who is going under the radar somewhat it is surely Ghaiyyath. His run at Baden Baden had the wow factor for me.He was given a rating of 128 by the handicappers, which was backed up by the clock.In fact, I could make him a couple of pounds higher quite easily. If he was a certain runner I have to think that he would be a single figure price and not the 13.0 which he currently is. I've backed him at 15.0 and will probably back him again when and if he is confirmed.He still has a few pounds to find with Enable who,getting the mares allowance, he has to, but being so lightly raced that wouldn't be unlikely. I have to hope that Godolphin will want a runner and will give him the go-ahead if he is training well.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 29 Sep 19 16:46
Reasonable amounts of rain forecast for this week including Saturday and Sunday so anticipating some cut in the ground. Do not think this will inconvenience any of the big players. Awaiting the declared runners and draw to finalise selections. Already backed Japan and Sottsass at double figure prices and may be a trader depending on the draw. Will almost certainly be an Enable backer but looking for something close to evens on the day.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 29 Sep 19 19:18
Sandown,

I totally agree and posted similar to your words on here September 2nd.

If he can back up his BB run he's a live danger to Enable, more so than the 3 year olds
By:
gpz6316
When: 29 Sep 19 20:44
sometimes you gotta put your balls on the chopping block . i see from what enable fans are saying they need evs or close , so you have to drag the 2nd and 3rd favs in closer oddswise to tempt them . that means japan and sottsass will contract . i believe sottsass will win so i need to bet it now .
By:
Sandown
When: 29 Sep 19 20:54
Andrew in Sweden.

It was your post which alerted me so thank you. It was an incredible run which I hope he can replicate,perhaps even improve upon. Just hope he gets the opportunity.☺
By:
gpz6316
When: 29 Sep 19 21:00
ghaiyyath looks like a mums tipple to me , but, best of luck
By:
elisjohn
When: 30 Sep 19 08:00
when is decs today/tomorrow?
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Sep 19 09:11
I hope every one of the main protagonists show up. I also hope this race turn into an epic-duel between them too. Ghaiyyath is an enigma, and would be a serious consideration if his last win was here or France; his participation could probably ensure no hostage is taken in the race. My (main) money is on Sottsass, and I hope he wins,..obviously).
By:
elisjohn
When: 30 Sep 19 10:13
17 declared, no shock omissions, my outsider deirdrie still in
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Sep 19 10:43
All the big runs stand their ground; Mehdaayih and AVD are still in no doubt in case something untoward happens to Enable or Japan respectively. No Broome, Pink Dogwood, Sir Dragonet or Stradivarius though. Final decs on friday (I believe).
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Sep 19 13:23
Supplementary on wednesday with final decs on thursday.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Sep 19 13:31
Trainer of Sottsass, Rouget: "I'm going into The Arc with confidence, but with a horse who's never encountered Enable, who's never encountered Japan, who' never really met any one so I can't invent anything. I've no reference. I can't say he's going to take his revenge or anything. I don't know. What I do know is the horse is looking good, he's in good form. Everything is alright."
By:
Sandown
When: 30 Sep 19 15:27
Is Enable a good thing? There have been 204  5y + runners since 1949 with 3 winners and just 2 from 130 since 1980. (Since 1980 the 3 year olds are 5 times more likely and  4 year olds 3.3 times more likely than older horses to provide the winner.)

One possible explanation for this is that the cream of the crop are not kept in training after 4 especially if they are colts which may go to explain why 2 mares (Treve & Enable) have or are  trying for a third win in the race which has not yet been achieved. Another possible reason is that older horses are much less likely too find much improvement than younger horses, on top of which the WFA scale may still favour younger horses.

Despite these stats, the only horse for money is Enable (£6500 to back at 1.8 on BF) so somebody must think she is value. I could not back her without knowing the ground and draw ( a wide draw is a problem).

She is still the most likely winner for me but I can let her run without my money at the current price even if NRNB.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Sep 19 16:13
I'd not back her (here) given one can have 4/5 with 'sly' and that comes with a run, and no deduction too. But with 2 progressive 3 yr olds in the line-up, and if no defection on race day from these 2 3 yr olds I think her price will drift.

I hope Gosden would run Mehdaayih too - the filly owes me money!
By:
elisjohn
When: 30 Sep 19 17:45
is that best odds as well, imp
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Sep 19 18:03
Yep, 4/5 with 'sly' (nrnb).

Probable ground could be good to soft, soft or very soft.
By:
elisjohn
When: 01 Oct 19 09:47
deirdrie was certainly in the 17 runners on here yesterday, now she isnt Confused, Sad
By:
happysandwich
When: 01 Oct 19 09:49
Anyone know why the Arc ante-post market is suspended?
By:
elisjohn
When: 01 Oct 19 09:50
no, the 6 day decs were yesterday, and i backed deirdrie yesterday , now shes missing.
By:
elisjohn
When: 01 Oct 19 09:58
race down to 14 now, there is supp tomorrow, found a piece in telegraph now, deirdrie was pulled out yesterday afternoon, yet my small back bet was layed at 7.30pm.
By:
elisjohn
When: 01 Oct 19 10:10
i put a back of deirdrie up just a tenner at 100 yesterday motning, went unmatched, until was layed at 7.25pm after she was withdrawn in the afternoon, i understand it was an ante post market, but is this allowed ?.
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