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elisjohn
06 Jun 19 06:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 17,084 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
i was very impressed by sottsass in the french derby, seems to go on any ground, running on strongly over the 10 furlongs, but imo not  guaranteed to stay the arc trip on breeding  especially in a strongly run race, but with enable , sea of class not been out so far this season, the english derby no superstar in there i dont think, pink dogwood could be the best 3 year old at coolmore, should have won the oaks 6 lengths but for pilot error, and magical could be another found.So hoping hell stay im going for SOTTSASS
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Report elisjohn September 15, 2019 4:00 PM BST
didnt see the races(these used to be shown live on bbc years back), but read the thread on horse racing, so sottsass won easy then?
Report A_T September 15, 2019 4:05 PM BST
won easy in the end but hard to know how good it is the pacemaker was only a couple of lengths behind
Report elisjohn September 15, 2019 4:25 PM BST
thanks
Report impossible123 September 15, 2019 6:29 PM BST
^^
Try youtube video.
Report elisjohn September 15, 2019 6:54 PM BST
yes i will impossible, but up to now ive been too busy on the ashes, and football.
Report FELTFAIR September 15, 2019 9:18 PM BST
Not sure Magical will go to the Arc. That coupled with the Breeders Cup and her already busy season seems a lot to ask. I think she is better going left handed and America may be the choice. Time will tell.
Report FELTFAIR September 15, 2019 9:18 PM BST
Not sure Magical will go to the Arc. That coupled with the Breeders Cup and her already busy season seems a lot to ask. I think she is better going left handed and America may be the choice. Time will tell.
Report Figgis September 15, 2019 9:27 PM BST
The mid season break was all important. Can't imagine Saturday's race would've taken much out of her given the pace it was run at, in terms of final times I have it 12lbs below her very best. Assuming that she's giving them the right signals closer to the time I can't see them passing up the chance of an Arc, particularly as the last time they bagged the race it was with another 4yo filly.
Report A_T September 15, 2019 9:39 PM BST
What mid-season break? She ran in July and then in August. Even if you accept that it was a break she was beaten at York more easily by Enable than she was in the Eclipse. This all sounds like it's just a hope that she's another Found.
Report Figgis September 15, 2019 10:21 PM BST
47 days between her runs in the Eclipse and Yorkshire Oaks. I'd call almost 7 weeks a decent break in a short flat season. She was beaten at York but O'Brien said she was just ready to start again. Like most things he says there can be truth or it can be spin and the market usually speaks far louder than him where that yard is concerned. Personally I was sceptical about her coming on for the run at York, but I was also sceptical about Ten Sovereigns coming on from Ascot. The Irish Champion Stakes convinced me she has.

Of course I don't expect everyone to agree with me. Enable has beaten Magical four times fair and square. There was no way Magical was going to beat Enable last year as she just wasn't good enough. I reckon this year, however, that the improved 4yo Magical wasn't at her best in the Eclipse (predicted beforehand) and again at York. Some horses, the exceptions like Enable, are top class virtually throughout their whole career, but most, like Magical, are capable of putting up a few high performances then experience troughs.

Obviously people will say that the King George form with Crystal Ocean points to Enable being better than an on song Magical anyway and me saying that CO was a few pounds below his POW is just another excuse. But if they're saying that CO ran to the pound in both races then they're making an excuse for Waldgeist's display in the POW, or they're saying he improved on his third run of the season at the age of 5, which is plausible, it's also what I thought initially. All I'm doing is saying it was in fact him that ran to form not CO, as that's what the time analysis tells me. As to Found, I rate Magical a few pounds better than her ExcitedWink
Report Meat Loaf September 22, 2019 9:14 AM BST
Anybody know when the next declaration stage is? Cheers
Report A_T September 22, 2019 10:02 AM BST
30th Sept
Report sageform September 22, 2019 10:21 AM BST
Much as I admire Enable, I can't back her at odds on this far from the race.
Report FOYLESWAR September 22, 2019 11:12 AM BST
after all the early skirmishes trying to get the big prices on  possible winners now the dust has settled,   now with the race a few weeks away  and the fav so short still some juice in the others and looking at the market now  magical at around 30 on here  appeals ,already on at roughly that  price and have a few others running for me  hopefull that she will go for this , enable obviously  will be hard to beat but cant be afraid of 1 horse and  magical has not got much to find  and at the odds i will be topping up on her .
Report impossible123 September 22, 2019 3:02 PM BST
Unless Enable underperforms which is very unlikely given her history and the two 3 yr olds are just much of a muchness Magical is nailed on to run another big race if turning up (and I think she will) given she's closely matched with Enable (she's also entered in the Sun Chariot a day earlier) and it's The Arc - a place is almost assured. The final decs could be friday 4th, I think.

Only 2 weeks to go. I just hope all the big guns show up on the day - cannot wait.
Report gpz6316 September 22, 2019 9:43 PM BST
looks like sottsass to me
Report gpz6316 September 22, 2019 9:43 PM BST
looks like sottsass to me
Report impossible123 September 23, 2019 3:40 PM BST
I hope you're right, Enable and Japan will do too.
Report impossible123 September 25, 2019 8:52 PM BST
Enable (4/5), Japan (6/1) and Ghaiyyath (12/1) have been supported less so Sottsass (9 here) is available. I hope Magical and Broome run too both 26 and 240 here respectively.
Report gpz6316 September 25, 2019 9:15 PM BST
i think its that time when a legend doesnt have it no more and is retired . just like montjeu vs sinndarr .if you look at japans form this season it suggests a burly horse, needed 3 races to get on a roll and rested since 21st august . that doesnt look promising to me japan cup maybe ? magical looks the aob horse . then sottsass do these french races have the class anymore ? i,m changing my mind to magical / floating at the moment
Report impossible123 September 25, 2019 10:05 PM BST
Magical would not be winning out of turn if Enable underperforms; she's better than Found in my opinion. And, I think Enable is not as good as she was when winning this race the 1st time. I'm not a great fan of Japan either even though I backed him in the King Edward - a far inferior race; beating Crystal Ocean over 2f shorter does not scream back me, back me.

But I hope Sottsass has the class to beat Enable.
Report roadrunner46 September 25, 2019 10:33 PM BST
so you are on the magical bandwagon impossible123Laugh
Report impossible123 September 25, 2019 11:26 PM BST
I think Magical at 26 here is value, but represents some doubt about her participation, I think. I'm on Magical (a free bet at 36 here), and 4 others eg Enable, Japan, Sottsass and Broome; a calamity if none is successful.
Report elisjohn September 26, 2019 8:05 AM BST
im sticking with sottsass and deirdrie
Report impossible123 September 26, 2019 5:29 PM BST
I like Sottsass too, and I firmly believe it would be him to benefit most if Enable does not bring her A-game to Longchamp next sunday. Next best would be Enable with trebles and accas going on to the King george on Boxing Day and Pinatubo for 2000G next April. I hope every one turn upon schedule.
Report Sandown September 27, 2019 2:14 PM BST
The case for Enable is easy to make and it would appear her race to lose. However, at this stage her price is not one to take with the A/P risk.

If there is a horse who is going under the radar somewhat it is surely Ghaiyyath. His run at Baden Baden had the wow factor for me.He was given a rating of 128 by the handicappers, which was backed up by the clock.In fact, I could make him a couple of pounds higher quite easily. If he was a certain runner I have to think that he would be a single figure price and not the 13.0 which he currently is. I've backed him at 15.0 and will probably back him again when and if he is confirmed.He still has a few pounds to find with Enable who,getting the mares allowance, he has to, but being so lightly raced that wouldn't be unlikely. I have to hope that Godolphin will want a runner and will give him the go-ahead if he is training well.
Report FELTFAIR September 29, 2019 5:46 PM BST
Reasonable amounts of rain forecast for this week including Saturday and Sunday so anticipating some cut in the ground. Do not think this will inconvenience any of the big players. Awaiting the declared runners and draw to finalise selections. Already backed Japan and Sottsass at double figure prices and may be a trader depending on the draw. Will almost certainly be an Enable backer but looking for something close to evens on the day.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 29, 2019 8:18 PM BST
Sandown,

I totally agree and posted similar to your words on here September 2nd.

If he can back up his BB run he's a live danger to Enable, more so than the 3 year olds
Report gpz6316 September 29, 2019 9:44 PM BST
sometimes you gotta put your balls on the chopping block . i see from what enable fans are saying they need evs or close , so you have to drag the 2nd and 3rd favs in closer oddswise to tempt them . that means japan and sottsass will contract . i believe sottsass will win so i need to bet it now .
Report Sandown September 29, 2019 9:54 PM BST
Andrew in Sweden.

It was your post which alerted me so thank you. It was an incredible run which I hope he can replicate,perhaps even improve upon. Just hope he gets the opportunity.☺
Report gpz6316 September 29, 2019 10:00 PM BST
ghaiyyath looks like a mums tipple to me , but, best of luck
Report elisjohn September 30, 2019 9:00 AM BST
when is decs today/tomorrow?
Report impossible123 September 30, 2019 10:11 AM BST
I hope every one of the main protagonists show up. I also hope this race turn into an epic-duel between them too. Ghaiyyath is an enigma, and would be a serious consideration if his last win was here or France; his participation could probably ensure no hostage is taken in the race. My (main) money is on Sottsass, and I hope he wins,..obviously).
Report elisjohn September 30, 2019 11:13 AM BST
17 declared, no shock omissions, my outsider deirdrie still in
Report impossible123 September 30, 2019 11:43 AM BST
All the big runs stand their ground; Mehdaayih and AVD are still in no doubt in case something untoward happens to Enable or Japan respectively. No Broome, Pink Dogwood, Sir Dragonet or Stradivarius though. Final decs on friday (I believe).
Report impossible123 September 30, 2019 2:23 PM BST
Supplementary on wednesday with final decs on thursday.
Report impossible123 September 30, 2019 2:31 PM BST
Trainer of Sottsass, Rouget: "I'm going into The Arc with confidence, but with a horse who's never encountered Enable, who's never encountered Japan, who' never really met any one so I can't invent anything. I've no reference. I can't say he's going to take his revenge or anything. I don't know. What I do know is the horse is looking good, he's in good form. Everything is alright."
Report Sandown September 30, 2019 4:27 PM BST
Is Enable a good thing? There have been 204  5y + runners since 1949 with 3 winners and just 2 from 130 since 1980. (Since 1980 the 3 year olds are 5 times more likely and  4 year olds 3.3 times more likely than older horses to provide the winner.)

One possible explanation for this is that the cream of the crop are not kept in training after 4 especially if they are colts which may go to explain why 2 mares (Treve & Enable) have or are  trying for a third win in the race which has not yet been achieved. Another possible reason is that older horses are much less likely too find much improvement than younger horses, on top of which the WFA scale may still favour younger horses.

Despite these stats, the only horse for money is Enable (£6500 to back at 1.8 on BF) so somebody must think she is value. I could not back her without knowing the ground and draw ( a wide draw is a problem).

She is still the most likely winner for me but I can let her run without my money at the current price even if NRNB.
Report impossible123 September 30, 2019 5:13 PM BST
I'd not back her (here) given one can have 4/5 with 'sly' and that comes with a run, and no deduction too. But with 2 progressive 3 yr olds in the line-up, and if no defection on race day from these 2 3 yr olds I think her price will drift.

I hope Gosden would run Mehdaayih too - the filly owes me money!
Report elisjohn September 30, 2019 6:45 PM BST
is that best odds as well, imp
Report impossible123 September 30, 2019 7:03 PM BST
Yep, 4/5 with 'sly' (nrnb).

Probable ground could be good to soft, soft or very soft.
Report elisjohn October 1, 2019 10:47 AM BST
deirdrie was certainly in the 17 runners on here yesterday, now she isnt Confused, Sad
Report happysandwich October 1, 2019 10:49 AM BST
Anyone know why the Arc ante-post market is suspended?
Report elisjohn October 1, 2019 10:50 AM BST
no, the 6 day decs were yesterday, and i backed deirdrie yesterday , now shes missing.
Report elisjohn October 1, 2019 10:58 AM BST
race down to 14 now, there is supp tomorrow, found a piece in telegraph now, deirdrie was pulled out yesterday afternoon, yet my small back bet was layed at 7.30pm.
Report elisjohn October 1, 2019 11:10 AM BST
i put a back of deirdrie up just a tenner at 100 yesterday motning, went unmatched, until was layed at 7.25pm after she was withdrawn in the afternoon, i understand it was an ante post market, but is this allowed ?.
Report elisjohn October 1, 2019 12:32 PM BST
13 now on hereConfused
Report impossible123 October 1, 2019 3:45 PM BST
Down to 12 now.

Never leave stake on possible non-runner just before final decs here as some unscrupulous individual would nick your doh when it's aconfirmed non-runner eg in-house trader with privileged info; some left £3k at 3 for a General Election in 2020 when Mrs May was Prime Minister, and it was gobbled up when she called an earlier so after her coronation.

Let's hope no hard luck story this weekend here.
Report happysandwich October 1, 2019 11:27 PM BST
I’m looking for ‘winning post enclosure’ tickets Sunday.

Anyone know of any deals or promotion codes on them – they’re 65 Euro on France galop?

Thanks
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 2, 2019 5:55 AM BST
Happysandwich,

https://www.billetterie.france-galop.com/uk/QPAT

Correct, 65 euros in the enclosure (cheaper in the village) for the Sunday or 80 euros for a 2 day pass (the latter not for you of course).

I'm not aware of any promotions or discounts for seniors etc (that doesn't mean to say there are not any) although in bygone years on occasion, if your female partner wore a hat she would get in free. If this is still the case, wear a wig, borrow one of your wifes' hats and tag along with a group. Laugh
Report elisjohn October 2, 2019 7:12 AM BST
i read on the forum here or horse racing , that there was a lot of disappointed spectators re the enclosures etc last year.
Report elisjohn October 2, 2019 7:29 AM BST
i brought the posts up  on horse racing forum  under arc tickets, if it helps
Report happysandwich October 2, 2019 7:45 AM BST
Andrew,

Which enclosure are you going in?
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 2, 2019 8:24 AM BST
Happysandwich,

The winning post enclosure (main one).

I saw your email earlier, apologies, Yahoo issues, but i will respond later.

Elisjohn,

I actually prefer the old grandstands to be honest, the new one is a 'tacky' Gold colour, and facilities not the best but they did say improvments have been made this year. The racing is still excellent though, i would go even if they held the meeting at Towcester Laugh
Report happysandwich October 2, 2019 8:44 AM BST
Thanks Andrew
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 2, 2019 8:55 AM BST
Here is my post from last year after ther racing

The racing was superb as it often is, but the new grandstand (much smaller than the old one) is so gaudy, i didn't like it at all. Everything is coloured Gold to presumably represent luxury, but it fails miserably, instead it's a tacky, plastic look with 'patio' style timber decking everywhere. $145,000,000 down the Seine, someone has made millions !

The food and drink queues were the same as they always were, totally insufficient and unorganised, even electrical power wasn't available in places before the first race.

Toilets were few and disgusting towards the end of the meeting.

One improvement (and contrary to media reports) i thought getting a bet on was 'acceptable', queues were still in place (albeit shorter than previous years) but there also were self-service kiosks and Longchamp staff with mobile hand-held tablets for placing bets. I didn't see this as a significant negative issue.

Was the granstand worth €75 ? Absolutely no way. Ascot premier enclosure for less money is far superior.

Lack of seating is just one on several things that need looking at. Racegoers i was talking with on the return bus also said the Arc Gardens enclosure was very poor. I also thought there were less TV screens than before. I much prefer the old Longchamp even though it was getting 'tired' as i am now.
Report mmmalushka October 2, 2019 10:07 AM BST
In what looks to be another mediocre Arc I've had a fair old go at Fierement the late maturing Japanese St Leger winner,with there looking to be plenty of pace I'm hoping this will be set up for a finisher ie Fierement.This is what Christophe Lemaire had to say about its prep race "He ran well. This Sapporo course is small and the distance was too short for him," said Lemaire.
"His spurt was a little late but he ran well at the straight and showed a good turn of foot. The Arc is his main target and he'll be suited by a step up in trip. I look forward to him running in it."
Report know all October 2, 2019 11:17 AM BST
Could the price drift on enable ? lots of stories on some others in the racing post pushing up there chances, do high street books pay french tote prices as they did years ago which ones ? and would the price pay better on the english irish horses than normal bookmaker prices ? im a big player this year, have 3 including fav
Report FOYLESWAR October 2, 2019 1:18 PM BST
wonder if baldy will put her up as a push ? not for me as already on japan at 40 just before the derby and magical at around 30 ish , not sure she will run but the gap in  the prices between her and the fav is too wide ,sure she has been turned over by enable every time they have met but she has not got that much to find . japan needs to carry on the improvement but has that upward curve and  looks to be getting better and better  and just coming to the boil ,will it be good enough to win ? not long to find out now .
Report FELTFAIR October 2, 2019 2:25 PM BST
Assume no supplementary additions.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 2, 2019 2:43 PM BST
Frenchie extra
SOFT LITES

Grin
Report FELTFAIR October 2, 2019 3:20 PM BST
Yes,Soft Light has been included in the possible 12 runners for a while.
Report impossible123 October 3, 2019 11:08 AM BST
Here are the draws: Enable (9); Japan (10); Sottsass (1); Waldgeist (3); Magical (8); Ghaiyyath (12).
Report EastLower Gooner October 3, 2019 3:52 PM BST
theres a chance 1 might be excellent for Sottsass

I think there’ll be few jocks mindful that Kiseki and Ghaiyyath might go off too hard...so Sottsass could get an easy  opportunity to slide right into a nice position...maybe allowing him first run on the others.

Then again he could just blow the start...which might not be that bad if Kiseki replicates his Japan Cup run and Ghaiyyath decides to go with him and then Enable / Japan / Magical find themselves a little legless after a lengthy battle.

Anyways just some random thoughts...best horse will win.
Report dunlaying October 5, 2019 6:12 PM BST
I have had a little e/w on French King ; take Enable out and it would be a very open race .
Report unclepuncle October 5, 2019 8:00 PM BST
Enable should win but with more rain forecast Waldgesit looks a near cert to be placed (similar type to Youmzain, Cloth Of StarsLove).

I have backed him e/w @ 16/1 with Slybet (4 places) and to win on here at 25. Break even if he places and win a bundle if he wins.
Report dunlaying October 5, 2019 8:45 PM BST
I cant see a thread for the Abbaye .  Finsbury Square will have his ground . A shade unlucky last year , 66/1 looks too big to me .
Report FELTFAIR October 6, 2019 9:45 AM BST
Not sure how the "very soft" ground will affect Japan and Sottsass both of whom I backed some while ago.Will also back Enable to save the stakes. Don`t fancy anything else but happy to be wrong in this ground.
Report A_T October 6, 2019 10:08 AM BST
easy win for Enable
Report brigust1 October 6, 2019 11:42 AM BST
I backed Magical a little while ago in mid August at big prices and laid off a month later at a third of the price. I think logically Enable will win and Magical and Sottsass are the only very serious dangers. Just this once I would like to see Magical position herself in front of Enable and challenge her to get past. Not hopeful about the first bit though.
Report Sandown October 6, 2019 11:57 AM BST
Looking at this race purely from a market perspective, I would say that it more than a little out of balance as we have perhaps the shortest price favourite since Deep Impact when his supporters virtually crated a one horse book.Predicting who the most likely winner might be (Enable) is a lot easier than pricing up her chance of doing so. Personally, I think that she is poor value at odds on although I know that many see her as value at her current price (short as 1.68 this morning now eased slightly) but opposing her because of price is hard to do when she sluices up.

However, that is what I propose to do. The horses out of line have started to shorten up not least Magical who is now down a more realistic price around 11.5 and could go off the same price almost as Japan. Who would have thought that a few days ago when she was out almost to 30.0? But, the value has gone now imo.

The other main market anomaly is Ghayyaith who is trading at around 13.0 to 15.0. Purely on the ratings he should be second favourite so why is he so big? I can only guess at the reasons but it wouldn't be the first time that the market gets it badly wrong.

You may not fancy any of the Japanese horses but at the prices they are incredibly over-priced and in this ground an upset is always possible.

In the longterm you have to bet what you believe is value and take it on the chin when a poor value favourite wins. This may be one of those days.
Report roadrunner46 October 6, 2019 12:03 PM BST
magical has had 19 races and only achieved 2 TS figures of 106 and 103, thats the reason its never in front of enable, its just never been fast enough to keep up, compared to enable 14 races TS figures of 117 116 115 114 105 102
Report impossible123 October 6, 2019 12:36 PM BST
Funnily enough I've been considering to 'lay' Ghaiyyath for a place at 3.25 as I'm still unconvinced about his Germany form despite his lofty rating. Another negative is the wfa allowance and Enable in the field. I'd have done a match bet between Ghaiyyath and Magical but no such market available.

I agree with Gosden if Enable reproduces her latest Arc win she'd be done by one of 3yr olds.
Report brigust1 October 6, 2019 12:37 PM BST
I cannot say I agree with any of that Roadrunner. Magical has been ridden to come off the pace. In last years Arc she was last coming into the straight and finished 5 lengths off the winner. She gave Enable first run in the Breeders Cup and again in the Eclipse and gave Crystal Ocean first run in the POW Stakes. I would like to see her getting first run for a change.
Report roadrunner46 October 6, 2019 12:46 PM BST
you can disagree but its all there in the profiles of the horses, do you honestly believe aiden o'brien has been giving the jockeys the wrong instructions on how to ride magical all this timeCrazy
Report impossible123 October 6, 2019 1:05 PM BST
Magical did win two good races (Debutante and Kilboy) from the front - she made all; her price contraction could be an indicator of the chance of Japan today.
Report Figgis October 6, 2019 2:50 PM BST
Japan turned out to be better than I thought after Ascot but I would still rate him no more than on par with an average Derby winner, which sometimes is good enough to win this event but wouldn't be good enough to beat an on form Enable. Unless she's below par he'll need to improve again, and as I thought he had a hard race last time that seems unlikely to me even after a rest. I rate Sottsass 4lbs behind Japan so, for me, he'll have to improve even more. I won't pretend I have a handle on Ghaiyyath's latest form. There's always a danger of underestimating these efforts like I did with Danedream but German racing appears to have declined since those days. Even if it was as good an effort as it looked, he's obviously been a horse with problems so there would still be a doubt about him repeating it, so I'm happy to pass on him.

I've already said that I consider the POW a better standard than this year's King George, with Crystal Ocean running a bit below his best in the second race. I reckon Magical was also below that form at Sandown and York. I can't categorically say that she was back to her best at Leopardstown, as the time was only fair and even the York form entitled her to win by that margin. However, visually to me she looked more like the filly who had performed so well at Ascot. There was also an excuse for the time not being special, as there was a lull in the pace mid-race. At this moment I believe I'm right about the POW effort but of course I could be wrong. There is also more margin for error when relying on visual impressions. A faster time at Leopardstown would obviously have been a better pointer, but that would still have been a double edged sword as it would've been far from ideal running so fast immediately before the Arc.

Until Enable is beaten there is no saying that she can't find more than she's had to already, she could be even better than she's shown, but when a horse is a short price like this I prefer to take it at face value. So I can't say this is the most confident I've ever been about a race but I reckon Magical represents outstanding value so I've had some decent bets on her, which will either give me an easier time over the winter or leave me trying to claw losses back over the coming weeks.
Report brigust1 October 6, 2019 2:56 PM BST
We will be cheering together on this one Figgis but the IF is a big one. I do rate Sottsass form higher than Japan currently so because RM is on him and not Magical I am not confident but if you are not in it you cannot win it.
Report unclepuncle October 6, 2019 3:11 PM BST
Bow down to the king.CoolCoolCool
Report elisjohn October 6, 2019 3:14 PM BST
i was very impressed by sottsass in the french derby, seems to go on any ground, running on strongly over the 10 furlongs, but imo not  guaranteed to stay the arc trip on breeding  especially in a strongly run race, but with enable , sea of class not been out so far this season, the english derby no superstar in there i dont think, pink dogwood could be the best 3 year old at coolmore, should have won the oaks 6 lengths but for pilot error, and magical could be another found.So hoping hell stay im going for SOTTSASS

DIDNT STAY
Report Figgis October 6, 2019 3:15 PM BST
I saw no reason why Waldgeist would turn the form around with Enable so well done to those who backed him. Initial thoughts are that Enable wasn't quite at her best, rather than Waldgeist improving, but too early to say for sure.
Report unclepuncle October 6, 2019 3:17 PM BST
Waldgeist was closing on the front two at the end of the King George and with even softer ground and home advantage (he loves Longchamp) h3 was an amazing e/w or win with place cover bet imo.
Report brigust1 October 6, 2019 3:20 PM BST
Well done Uncle. I really did look at him but you cannot back every horse. I had hoped the three year olds would do better but there was not a lot of confidence behind them and Enable's form is not really great so there was always the possibility of a turn up. Magical had every chance I suppose so no real excuses there.
Report A_T October 6, 2019 3:22 PM BST
the winner probably found better ground wide and the front runners went too fast in the conditions. wouldn't fancy the winner to back up this performance
Report bobbyjo October 6, 2019 3:30 PM BST
Very good shout Uncle (and anyone else who put him up)
Report roadrunner46 October 6, 2019 3:34 PM BST
WD unclepucle according to RP put in a career best in the king george and its highest recorded TS 113, was an amazing e/w, think maybe enable ran a little under form on that ground, was hoping japan would at least place in the 1-2-3
Report elisjohn October 6, 2019 3:49 PM BST
sottsass for me next year, better ground and or a bigger field will be perfect.
Report brigust1 October 6, 2019 4:30 PM BST
Not sure about that Elsjohn. I didn't think Waldgeist would win the Arc and the 3 year olds were only 3rd and 4th. The 3 year olds next year will have to be another poor bunch not to beat these.
Report roadrunner46 October 6, 2019 4:31 PM BST
that was a strange ride on magical, im wondering if coolmore were trying to soften up enable on that ground, they have been known to employ those type of tactics in the past.
Report A_T October 6, 2019 4:42 PM BST
it was a fast time in the conditions. I think Waldgeist ran the most even pace and the fancied horses used up too much early. reminded me of when Solemia mugged that Japanese horse
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2019 9:59 PM BST
wd Uncle. you do find a lot of winners! Grin
Report unclepuncle October 7, 2019 7:20 AM BST
Thanks Charlton - you're not too shabby yourself.Laugh
Report elisjohn October 7, 2019 10:55 AM BST
yes good call,  looking back what a cracking e/w bet he was
Report Figgis October 7, 2019 11:06 AM BST
On reflection I've changed my early take on the result. I agree with A_T that those racing very prominently early on did a bit too much but I don't think that was true of Dettori's ride. Enable beat Japan by almost the exact distance I would've expected if both running to form. There was a lot of talk after the race about Enable not finding her usual finishing kick in the ground, but it was no softer than when she won her first KG, and if you ignore Waldgeist from the picture yesterday she appeared to quicken up perfectly well. It's possible that she, Japan and Sottsass all ran below par, with Waldgeist only needing to do what he'd done before, which is what I originally thought. However, it's the time comparison on the day that swings it for me it's more likely they didn't run below their best. Waldgeist is the type of horse always going to be seen to best effect in a fast run race but he had that in the KG and still couldn't threaten Enable. I'm sure the soft ground also helped his cause yesterday but he had that in the POW and again didn't look an obvious future Arc winner. So it's true that he had all the conditions he required yesterday and had an easy prep beforehand but I think he was also probably in the best physical shape he's ever been and gave easily the best performance of his career. Personally I wouldn't fancy him repeating that level of form if running again, but it seems he might be retired anyway.
Report roadrunner46 October 7, 2019 12:10 PM BST
you can find the sectionals for the race on france galop, think you see aiden o'breins tactics a lot in the derby, how they try and distort the pace of races,
no doubt in my mind they used magical for this purpose in the arc, the way that horse faded after challenging ghaiyyath most of the way around, you would of
thought it had just been shot, japan ran a blinder and was 2nd fastest in the race over the last 3 furlongs, had to come wide on the bend, drawn 10 dint help
its cause getting a better position early on.
Report brigust1 October 7, 2019 7:44 PM BST
Figgis the difference between Ascot and Longchamp is the home straight. When Ascot announces soft ground that doesn't refer to the home straight. It has been laid specifically to drain easily and quickly and the ground is never as soft as everywhere else on the course. I remember Jason Weaver covering this point after walking the course on Champions Day one year where the ground was recorded as soft but it was only good to soft in the home straight. For that reason Waldgeist wasn't able to benefit properly from softened ground at Ascot when he made his challenge unlike at Longchamp where the softened ground actually helped him immensely.
Report brigust1 October 7, 2019 7:51 PM BST
Work on the Straight Mile commenced in September 2004, once the course had been officially closed. This involved the redevelopment of the Home and Paddock bends to merge into the original Round Course, and making improvements to their camber. A three dimensional laser grading system was used to provide accurate shaping of the new track base, which would produce an even racing surface. A comprehensive new drainage system was installed and gravel drainage layers inserted to produce a uniform base. Work on the new underpasses to replace the existing track crossings commenced in July 2005 and the new track was completed in August 2005.

STRI continues to evaluate the condition of the track and advise on the optimum management of the turf. The track has matured and is widely recognised as one of the best courses in the world.
The results
Realignment work on the Straight Mile was completed to schedule in September 2005.
Positive comments made by John Gosden following a trial gallop of the new surface in October 2005.
Successful removal of two track crossings, replaced by new underpasses.
The creation of a durable, even surface and sustainable racing.
Recognition of the achievement by the media, with Country Illustrated reporting that the racecourse was now the ‘finest in the world’.
Report Figgis October 8, 2019 10:22 AM BST
Brigust, yes the straight at Ascot generally does ride quicker than the round part of the track. However on watching both races again it didn't appear to me that the Longchamp straight was noticeably slower than for the 2017 King George. It was soft in the straight on Sunday but it definitely wasn't heavy and the times back that up. So the conditions were definitely in Waldgeist's favour but I still rate he put up a better than average winning Arc performance on Sunday. That doesn't mean I would rate him an above average Gp1 winner overall, certainly not. That is one of the problems the ratings firms have when rating the race, they have to rate the horse on its best effort. I see Timeform have Enable 129, so if you agree with the rating you could say she was a 129 horse, as she usually runs to that mark or wins comfortably enough to suggest she could match it. I see they've upped Waldgeist to 132, which I'd say was fair enough on that performance, but personally I'd never call Waldgeist a 132 horse in general.
Report Sandown October 8, 2019 12:18 PM BST
The fresh ground for Arc day is for a degree or so faster than the Saturday and this year was no exception. On race times, I have to make the going as good to soft, at worse. "Very soft" was "very misleading." The final time was a good 7/8/9 seconds faster than when Ivanija(76) Sagace (84) Urban Sea (93) Montjeu (99) won their races.

Looking at the sectionals its clear that the early pace was too fast to be sustainable which gave an advantage to horses held up. Waldgeist, Softsass and Japan were. In the circumstances, Enable must be credited for finishing second having been on the front end all the way. Ghaiyyath was made to do too much from a wide draw which was a disadvantage.

Using the final 2 furlong splits only Waldgeist maintained an even pace whilst the ground gained by the other two from the back (Softsass, Japan) showed that even they faded in the final furlong as did Enable.

In conclusion, Waldgeist got the best trip in conditions which played to his stamina. As to his rating, the RP have given him a rating of 128 (+2) which I believe is more accurate than TF's 132.
Report kincsem October 15, 2019 11:31 AM BST
I keep an Excel spreadsheet of the Arc draw (Longchamp).
The 2019 time was 30th of the 47 years (1971-2019) i.e. a bit slow but nothing too extreme.
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