Horse Antepost
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i was very impressed by sottsass in the french derby, seems to go on any ground, running on strongly over the 10 furlongs, but imo not guaranteed to stay the arc trip on breeding especially in a strongly run race, but with enable , sea of class not been out so far this season, the english derby no superstar in there i dont think, pink dogwood could be the best 3 year old at coolmore, should have won the oaks 6 lengths but for pilot error, and magical could be another found.So hoping hell stay im going for SOTTSASS
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Pilot did nothing wrong.
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tell the pilot to count to three before going for home, then might have won on pink dogwood,kew gardens , sir dragonet, usa army ranger, cliffs of moher.
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The golden rule is to settle travel, quicken and battle. Which of these did Ryan Moore get wrong. The other forum is for jockey knockers.
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Some clock watchers think he asked the filly for too much too soon.
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight |
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Read that Figgis but I don`t agree either about Pink Dogwood or Fleeting. Who watching the race, including myself, thought Pink Dogwood was not going to win easily (1.03 layed I believe). I had backed the winner who seemed held on the inside but stayed on well and was able to outbattle Pink Dogwood.
I remember Pat Eddery sitting on El Gran Senor with a double handful at the two furlong marker. He held on to the horse as long as he could but got outbattled by Secreto in the last few yards. All the critics argued he should have kicked on earlier. I am a big fan of Frankie and Ryan Moore but for me the battling qualities/stamina of the winner made the difference and not jockeyship. |
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Not saying I agree with it either, although it's possible. I do think the form will be turned around in future, but for other reasons.
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Not sure a rematch will occur but as you say time will tell.
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nothing from the diane for sottsass too worry about,
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This year is going to be super tough for Enable - she's already missed a planned appointment; Sea Of Class had her chance last year. So, one of the youngsters would prevail, I firmly believe.
My two would be Japan (no Derby win/nothing to lose), and Sottsass (beat Persian King easily) as I do not believe AVD will go given his Epsom victory and probably the Irish one too. |
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cape didnt boost the french derby form there
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japan is in the mix
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had a tenner on japan at before the derby at 40 on here laid some off straight after his win today at 7 and 10
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I think it was quite comforting AOB nominated two possibles immediately after the win of Japan eg King George at Ascot or Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, but would not be running in the Irish Derby on 29th as it was only a week away - all 3 races over 12f; nothing about the Leger.
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Japan with barely more than a 4 and a half lengths beating of Eagles By Day and being talked up for the Arc? Have people lost their minds?
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I'm obviously not talking about the 40s bet.
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but from what the telly experts ed and rishi
 , was saying he covered not far off 20 meters more than the rest. whats that 6 to 8 lengths?. |
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but lets be honest if enable doesnt turn up in paris, the main contenders would be sea of class maybe, avd, sottsass ,japan and magical from what weve seen so far.
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Japan might have covered 20m more than his counterparts in the King Edward, but they were not a great bunch of 12f horses eg Pondus and Private Secretary (both hyped by pundits), and Bangkok. Nevertheless, I think Japan can beat AVD - fairly and squarely - given the improvement Japan has shown since Epsom - he only finished 1/2l behind AVD at Epsom - and apparent pecking order at Ballydoyle..
I think Japan is a serious contender for the King George at Ascot on merit plus the wfa allowance he gets as a 3 yr old, and, this race too. I hope to see Enable run very soon. I also hope she can retain the excellence she showed in this race in 2017; she was slightly below par last year despite winning. |
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i think the 3yo crop is underwhelming , so the logic is to look to the older brigade . i would of thought that sea of class is being aimed at this and will be at her very best . i,m gonna write enable off , lucky last year to hang on given s.o.c draw shes regressing now . nothing has the stamp 3yo wise at present , but , a convincing trial could put the cat amongst the pigeons . i think the value comes from enable i,m sure she wont win so theirs juice in the market
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I understand Magical was not given a clever ride by Moore in the PoW at Royal Ascot, but Crystal Ocean seemed to have her measure all the time. Could she be the horse on the up-and-up? She was a good horse last year but seemed to have matured and progressed into a better one this season; 12/1 could be value if the 3 yr olds amount to nothing special. But, Sottsass did dispose of Persian King relatively easily.
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Might be money down the drain but had a little bet Dragonet. Still not sure what his plans are but looked the likely winner of the Derby 1f out and might have strengthen up a touch
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Sorry to be a party-pooper with Sir Dragonet. I think he ran his race at Epsom - he was as good as he'd be at this stage. I do not think he'd take the Arc route either given the ammunition at the expense of Coolmore; he'd be saved for his season given his immaturity and potential. Also, no-showing for the Irish gig could be a reflection of the peril of running at Epsom too for an inexperienced young horse.
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Japan is more likely to go to the Grand Prix de Paris (12f/3yr olds) on 14/07/2019 rather than the King George 27/07/2019; a prelude to the Arc if winning convincingly, no doubt.
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Enable had a successful tuning-up for this race in The Eclipse, and is only 6/4 for this. Does that mean others could just be running for a place at best here?; Sir Dragonet is having a break, and his next race could be the Irish Champion Stakes on 14th Sept, according to AOB.
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The win of Spanish Mission in the Bahrain Trophy did not discredit the form of Japan who beat Private Secretary who was the conqueror of Spanish Mission. Let's hope Japan can dispose of his adversaries in the Grand Prix de Paris with aplomb.
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the fav being so short takes a huge chunk out of the market and i will be backing 3 or 4 at big prices .the fav may win but at such an early stage i wouldnt be taking any short prices on a race that is often littered with hard luck stories . i have had a few quid on prix diane winner channel at up to 180/1 on here obv a good bit to find and they finished in a heap in the diane but she stuck on well and stoutly bred could improve with the arc trip . a lot of ifs and buts for most of them but the arc is a nataral target for a diane winner and all being well she should line up .available at around 100 on here now worth a pop imo.
also had a few quid on pink dogwood at around 90s av on here ,well bred and heavily supported by those "in the know" all winter for the oaks she ran a decent race and may well have won if held onto for longer ,a good bit to find but 3 yo fillies cqan improve a bundle throughout the season and with the right connections too big at the price on here . have already backed japan at 40s a while back will look for another to take on the fav . as said earlier fav looks good but we dont know the going ,draw or who will line up at this stage so no way i would take a short price now for a race in october . selection ..channel around 90-100 on here and pink dogwood around 90 on here now 1 point .win bets ........glaktcyfa. |
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Japan (1/2 tomorrow), if winning convincingly, will be a lot shorter; 12/1 at present.
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have also stuck a few quid on crystal ocean at around 20s on here ,market could change after king george and 20s is decent imo
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laid enable for near a grand here at around avg 5.8 few weeks back, and backed sotsass , since then sea of class out, masar out, getting slightly worried now, only sotsass and japan for me as others that could beat her.
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Need to lay her again to reduce the overall price you have committed to. Then pray.
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thing is if she wins kg, were then talking evens for arc., but again a flop and we might be looking 1000/1 arc
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ps when i say flop i dont mean injured or nothing sinster with my
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If Enable does not win the King George next saturday in a fair race she'd be retired, I firmly believe. And, if Crystal Ocean (CO) is her conqueror CO will be fav here; Sottsass is the best of the French and the one I fancy, with Japan given the wfa allowance.
But the bookies think it's a one-horse-race ie Enable to lose. |
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have not seen sundays race yet but not a great deal between 1st and 2nd going by reports, the 2nd has had less racing and with a better start could he reduce the gap next time ? are the 3yos up to scratch ? from what we have seen so far no ,but improvement likely and anything can happen.
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Japan was not impressive nevertheless, he did it cosily and readily; he held a good handy position (4th/outside) throughout; the race was not at suicidal pace thus had to take it up 2f out. The runner-up Slalom was away in his customary slow fashion (like Broome), and about 1.5l behind Japan next to the rails; ridden to try to get out when boxed-in - Japan had not taken it up yet. And, when Japan took it up and quickened he went about 2-3 lengths clear of Slalom when Slalom finally got out.
But, I think with a more searching pace Japan would have been held-up longer before pouncing at the furlong pole. I think the result would have been the same if Japan was held onto longer. Try to watch it on youtube. |
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what about deirdre for arc ?
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Not totally inconceivable nevertheless, beating Hermosa (beaten by Watch Me too) who unlikely to have run her race today; Mehdaayih doing the donkey work, and 2f short of her best trip - Deidre will need to improved more than a stone to be competitive, I firmly believe.
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It's all about Enable again for me this yr. If she gets there in top shape, I'am expecting 3 in a row.
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Enable is the hotpot for a 3rd ARC success, and she'll probably be retired too, if winning; Dettori was uncharacteristically very emotional post her Yorkshire Oaks success today. Will Dettori retire too, if winning The ARC on 6th Oct? I hope not. He still has a few more years to give as a jockey yet.
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