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prix de l,arc de triomphe

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Replies: 173
By:
gpz6316
When: 22 Aug 19 19:48
ya that was very telling from frankie , he will . sottsass looks like the winner to me
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Aug 19 12:13
Why is Sottsass still available at 9/1 when Enable is a ridiculous 'evens'? The latter's claim to fame is beating Crystal Ocean and Magical, and the ill-fated Sea Of Class. I understand Sottsass next outing will be the Prix Niel (12f) on 15th Sept where he'll no doubt start a short price fav. And, if winning comfortably his rice will not be more than 3/1, I believe.

Only 3 serious contenders, I firmly believe ie Enable (2x winner), Japan and Sottsass (both 3 yr olds), and possibly the enigmatic Broome (form line to Japan), post the St Leger (hopefully); the ARC is more than 3 months after the Irish Derby without a a race prior.
By:
ashleigh
When: 28 Aug 19 14:53
arc pricewise tomorrow, tom going to be struggling for a selection, sottsass would be the obvious one, unless he goes for his old friend over all 1m 1/2f races waldgeist.
By:
gpz6316
When: 28 Aug 19 20:17
i reckon the uk buck is a lot bigger than the french one . they also dont have confidence in their form as the uk raids successfully so often and of course the casual is gonna be on enable , these would be the factors in my mind why sottsass is 7-1 still . i wouldnt be concerned the price is too big . i will back him when he is declared for the niel , just in case .
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Aug 19 21:29
Japan looks the only real form danger to Enable and 6/1 is fair, though a soft ground Arc would make Enable very hard to beat.

Sottsass was impressive enough in the Jockey Club but what did he beat and will he stay? Also the era of French three year old colts dominating the Arc ended a long time ago (probably linked to the reduction in distance of the PDJC).
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Aug 19 07:27
Sottsass has come in a for a bit of support ie from 11.5 into 9.2 (matched) over the last couple of days possibly with the Prix Niel in mind; Crystal Ocean and Magical (if turning up) are too big a price comparatively to Enable eg if no show or below par performance or bad draw eg 15 for Enable these two could be in the box seat similar to Found (the perpetual bridesmaid).
By:
ashleigh
When: 29 Aug 19 09:58
as predicted, sottsass pricewise selection at a mythical 9/1 with billys.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Aug 19 16:00
I wholly despise this tipster! Why pick him now? Why not immediately prior to or after his French Derby triumph?; the price was significantly longer than present then.

What more info does the plonker need given the competitors to Enable were falling by the wayside eg Magical, Crystal Ocean, Anthony Van Dyck, Walgeist, etc? Sottsass beat Persian King - the horse that beat our 2000G winner Magna Grecia

Pathetic effort, and slow on the uptake. I'd have 'laid' him 9/1 with my accas and antepost bets.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Aug 19 16:09
I also think Stradivarius ought to head to Longchamp for The ARC this season rather than wait for Champions Day at Ascot - he's already won the £1m bonus, and the race last season; no further kudos can be achieved. And, ignore the feelings and advice of his trainer; Stradivarius might not be around next season.
By:
gpz6316
When: 29 Aug 19 19:39
stradivarius ? seriously ?  i couldnt give him a squeek
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Aug 19 09:41
Squeek or not, Stradivarius adds interest to the race - Stradivarius has won everything in his category - the others bar the two 3 yr old protagonists are probably over-rans (again) unless Enable significantly underperforms or one of her (losing) competitors encounters an added resurgence in form come autumn.

At the moment Enable is no betting proposition given her above average risk/reward ratio in the event of a no-show; Gosden/Dettori have had a plain sailing passage in their conquest of Gp 1 races up to now after their initial setback with Too Darn Hot at the beginning of the season.
By:
impossible123
When: 31 Aug 19 17:27
Market manipulation in progress. Someone tried with Japan earlier on, and now Crystal Ocean. Good luck if you're responsible.
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 01 Sep 19 15:39
Add Ghaiyyath to the mix imo
By:
ElT
When: 01 Sep 19 20:25
It looked a monster of a performance, but it´s hard to assess. You have to keep in mind that German racing has been absolute trash for the last five years. Probably the worst it has ever been, because the Australians buy up all the Monsun bloodlines for the Melbourne Cup and the Japanese buy every broodmare from the Alpes to the Northern Sea.
By:
gpz6316
When: 01 Sep 19 20:53
hmm lots of made all for ghaiyyath . wont make all in a arc . has to dominate and has issues regarding soundness , interesting , but , nothing more
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Sep 19 17:04
It's crass Ghaiyyath is shorter than Crystal Ocean and Magical despite his easy win over the weekend in Germany in a Gp 1 - the protagonists were pants; Ghaaiyyath was beaten by Waldgeist last season - he too was making the running then.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 02 Sep 19 19:30
My take on Ghaiyyath (copied from a midday post on my lay thread).

The only selection i put up as a win bet (Ghaiyyath in the Grosser Preis von Baden) did so (23/10) and in some style by an eased down 14L.

As i stated on another thread (coverage of German racing) what he beat is anyone’s guess and although we shouldn’t get carried away too much, he shouldn’t be underestimated either, it was a Group 1 with international runners after all (Danedream won the same race (twice in fact) before her 2011 Arc win).

He had an easy lead after a furlong, travelled well, had all the field off the bridle several furlongs out and simply powered away off the bend (almost reminiscent of Frankel in the Queen Anne) with Buick easing him down.

The field was well strung out like a Cheltenham Gold cup on heavy going at the line, the German Derby winner and 9/5f (unbeaten in 4 previous runs) was beaten over 18L in 3rd and the Mark Johnston dual Group 2 race winner Communique (rated 114) was beaten almost 64L although this was obviously not his true running. A wonderful performance and a pleasure to watch, i can’t think of a better Group 1  performance this year. 

Using race winning times on different days is clearly not reliable, but for information he ran the 2nd fastest time for the race this century. Was it simply a tactical ride by Buick and having the run of the race against trees, it’s hard to say, we will know in time, but taking a strict interpretation of form/ratings the international classification committee have to make him the highest rated in the world, it will be interesting to see what they (and BHA) make of it.

Personally i still feel the Arc is Enables race to lose, but if i had a working Betfair account i would certainly have had a small W/P bet at the 17’s available post-race as an insurance. I suspect he will be single figure odds on the day, maybe as low as 7/1.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Sep 19 17:04
Ghaiyyath is rated 127 ie 1lb behind Enable and level with Crystal Ocean (and Battaash) after beating some ho-hopers in a Gp1 race in GERMANY. It is madness, sheer madness...I call it madness - after just one race.

Remember 'Betfair Chase' where Bristol De Mai beat Cue Card by 57l? He was rated in the stratosphere! It seems the handicappers still have not quite grasped the "reliability" of a "freak" result based solely on just one race; another miscalculation.
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 05 Sep 19 16:23
one problem is there are easier races out there for him...If he was mine I’d go for the BC Turf and Hong Kong Vase rather than dump him in here vs these sharks.

Then again I’m the nutcase who fancied Too Darn Hot for the Classic lol
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Sep 19 18:43
Ghaiyyath towing Enable with Japan, Sottsass, Magical and Crystal Ocean following right behind. What a race in prospect! Sottsass still available at 12.5 (here) - the Prix Niel us next weekend.

Let's hope none of the above is handicapped by a coffin box.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Sep 19 23:40
Khaadem was obviously very impressive last time but for me that was still only equivalent to Gp3 winning form. He was only asked to win the race late on so it's possible he can do even better, plus 3yos can make big physical improvement anyway, so while I wouldn't be surprised if he could progress some more in a Gp1 lacking real depth I still don't want to back him.

In my view the only runner here who has shown genuine Gp1 form this season is Dream of Dreams. His Ascot second was a big step up on anything he's done before but there didn't appear to be any luck involved to me. Nevertheless he was very disappointing last time so it remains to be seen if the Ascot run was a one off. I don't buy the excuse about the ground, the horse just didn't fire. Hopefully it was just an off day rather than a sign he's done for the year and I'm willing to chance him again.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Sep 19 23:41
Sorry wrong thread Crazy
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Sep 19 16:30
I didn't back Magical today but I was very impressed. The pace slowed mid-race so there was no chance of the time being outstanding but it was fair enough. For me, this year's Prince Of Wales was the best race of the year and in my view Magical ran considerably below her best in the Eclipse and again last time at York after a break.

I said before the Eclipse that I thought there was a strong chance she'd be below par there but if O'Brien could get her back on song in the autumn she'd be the one to beat at Longchamp. As I said, there was no chance of the time being outstanding today so on the clock it can't be compared to her best but what really impressed me was the manner in which Magical quickened and I'd say she's right back to her earlier form. I also see it as a positive that she didn't have to run a very fast overall time today as it leaves more in the tank. All being well I'll be having a good bet on her in the Arc.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 Sep 19 16:39
did you not think magical got the most perfect trip imaginal today figgis? i did, bit sickened as was on the 4th as rated the nassua a proper race(don't think she would of won however)...i thought she won well but jeez did she get it good, i thought it was a very average race on paper tbh
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Sep 19 16:46
Harry, as the race wasn't run as fast as it could have been then yes you could say Magical was perfectly positioned. However for me she really quickened up impressively, it wasn't just a case of getting first run then hanging on. In my, admittedly subjective, opinion she would've won even more decisively off a stronger pace. I very much liked what I saw today.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 Sep 19 16:53
yeah she was much the best and it looks like the trainer backed off her with an eye to the better end of season races...one thing she is is tough i just couldn't get to carried away after getting a perfect trip like that but class horses are very thin on the ground so she will have her chance in the arc...i'm always brutal and as you know i've always liked her i'll have to ponder
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Sep 19 17:11
Harry, for me her best run was the POW second. That second was a better run than Enable's King George win. On times in that King George I have CO running a good few pounds below his POW win. Unlike most people who have Waldgeist improving in the King George I have him running almost to the pound of his prior effort. I know people will say Enable beat Magical fair and square at Sandown and she did, but this isn't just an aftertime excuse for Magical on my part, I said before the Eclipse I'd be surprised if she performed to her best. The unknown was whether she could recapture that earlier form again but she was given every chance by being given a rest. The jury was still out after watching her at York as it was unlikely she was fully primed that day. Normally I'd prefer some concrete time evidence that a horse can still do what it's done before but with the Arc close around the corner I think the pace of today's race was ideal as a prep and I'm happy to go with my visual impression.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Sep 19 17:29

Sep 14, 2019 -- 11:53AM, harry callaghan wrote:


yeah she was much the best and it looks like the trainer backed off her with an eye to the better end of season races...one thing she is is tough i just couldn't get to carried away after getting a perfect trip like that but class horses are very thin on the ground so she will have her chance in the arc...i'm always brutal and as you know i've always liked her i'll have to ponder


do you mean aiden o'brein has given magical easy schedule this year?Crazy run 7 times now, previous 3 group 1 races well beaten against
much better opposition, had an ideal trip in the race today, think today was the big pay day for magical, could it be placed in the arc,
suppose with a good draw and another ideal trip anythings possible.

By:
Figgis
When: 14 Sep 19 17:47
I'm sure Harry meant mid season. O'Brien said after the Eclipse they thought about giving her a break before that race but decided to run. Personally I wouldn't have run there but they still picked up second and it hasn't harmed her autumn campaign so no damage done.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 Sep 19 18:01
i know you're not aftertiming i remember your comments figgis before eclipse, i have to say i thought she was gone myself but like a lot of the trainers horses they keep coming back...i agree about today as a perfect prep as well, i haven't taken enable on this season but will be in the arc... listening to o'brien he thinks she has come forward again so maybe she can do it...she has run in france 3 times and not fired does this concern you at all figgis?
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 Sep 19 18:02
yes mid season break is what i meant
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Sep 19 18:08
Harry, no it doesn't concern me. She wasn't a top notch 2yo when she ran there and as a 3yo I didn't really rate her until she won at Ascot where she improved. Even then I didn't rate her as a proper all age Gp1 performer until her early 4yo season form. The POW effort set her back a bit.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 15 Sep 19 06:37
without having looked at most of the other horses in the arc, would of thought japan the most likely to challenge enable this year,
profile looks progressive and just like last year enable's price just not worth considering for win purposes only.
By:
elisjohn
When: 15 Sep 19 07:25
i still like this deirdrie, ran yesterday on a course that i wouldnt have run her on with her style of racing, hopefully she,ll run.
By:
elisjohn
When: 15 Sep 19 15:00
didnt see the races(these used to be shown live on bbc years back), but read the thread on horse racing, so sottsass won easy then?
By:
A_T
When: 15 Sep 19 15:05
won easy in the end but hard to know how good it is the pacemaker was only a couple of lengths behind
By:
elisjohn
When: 15 Sep 19 15:25
thanks
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Sep 19 17:29
^^
Try youtube video.
By:
elisjohn
When: 15 Sep 19 17:54
yes i will impossible, but up to now ive been too busy on the ashes, and football.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 15 Sep 19 20:18
Not sure Magical will go to the Arc. That coupled with the Breeders Cup and her already busy season seems a lot to ask. I think she is better going left handed and America may be the choice. Time will tell.
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